[Shadow]

Ok, I am back and it took alot of catching up so in order. HA! JA got dead! HA! Team fire killed him(Galain!). HA! Hood's path was distancing! HA! The thing were Serc said to kill all 3 of them is weird, but no way is there anyway for his team to have actualy done so, as no one knew anyone elses rank. And finaly BOOOO ANOMANDARIS!!! Hope everthing is alright, but BOOOO anyway!

Sorry about my absense guys, my net crashed, and my phone isn't really made for texting. I am here and off, but will be around periodically. Before I go I am going to

Vote Gay Lord

Just a hunch right now, but I think he is team fire, and was trying to make up for the DK, distancing technique. I see it as distancing since DK wasn't a noob, and am hoping we hit the fire leader or 3rd. Too many people put up a defense for him(JA) not to have been known. I may change, but right now, thats what I am seeing.

[D'riss]

Shadow, on Feb 12 2009, 09:46 AM, said:

Ok, I am back and it took alot of catching up so in order. HA! JA got dead! HA! Team fire killed him(Galain!). HA! Hood's path was distancing! HA! The thing were Serc said to kill all 3 of them is weird, but no way is there anyway for his team to have actualy done so, as no one knew anyone elses rank. And finaly BOOOO ANOMANDARIS!!! Hope everthing is alright, but BOOOO anyway!

Sorry about my absense guys, my net crashed, and my phone isn't really made for texting. I am here and off, but will be around periodically. Before I go I am going to

Vote Gay Lord

Just a hunch right now, but I think he is team fire, and was trying to make up for the DK, distancing technique. I see it as distancing since DK wasn't a noob, and am hoping we hit the fire leader or 3rd. Too many people put up a defense for him(JA) not to have been known. I may change, but right now, thats what I am seeing.

If he's a leader then his team knows his identity. That's the implication being made.

[D'riss]

Fener, on Feb 12 2009, 09:43 AM, said:

Hmm...not sure about the Serc case. It's not like people would have needed instructions to take out Kaschan, Korlat and Galain, after all - everyone could see they were being suspicious already. Now if it was someone slightly off the radar who happened to die then the case would be stronger, but those guys were producing enough stuff for me to think that they'd have died anyway regardless of something Serc said.

That much is true. That doesn't mean it isn't suspicious, however.

I'm still keeping an eye on HP. Did you find anything, Fener?

[Omtose]

Tennes, on Feb 12 2009, 05:47 AM, said:

Omtose, you're one of our highest posters. But I can't remember anything useful you've said, you ended yesterday without voting for anyone, and you're not voting for anyone today. Why is that? Are you trying to not give anything away?

Hmm, something is wrong when I am a top poster lol. I have some serious discussion, mostly speculation or talking about cases scattered around. Usually I am on in my evening and there are about 3 other people around so it is harder to get stuff accomplished.

Now, as for voting, I didn't vote for Kaschan because when I went to bed he was getting close to a lynch and I didn't want to have tunnel-vision at one or two targets. By the time I woke up day had ended. Now when I went to bed last night there were only 3 votes or so cast, out of 21. So 6/7 of the players hadn't voted, including myself.

edit to make more senses.

This post has been edited by Omtose: 12 February 2009 - 03:05 PM

[D'riss]

What?

EDIT: cross-post with Omtose's edit.

This post has been edited by D'riss: 12 February 2009 - 03:12 PM

[Fener]

Shadow, on Feb 12 2009, 09:46 AM, said:

Ok, I am back and it took alot of catching up so in order. HA! JA got dead! HA! Team fire killed him(Galain!). HA! Hood's path was distancing! HA! The thing were Serc said to kill all 3 of them is weird, but no way is there anyway for his team to have actualy done so, as no one knew anyone elses rank. And finaly BOOOO ANOMANDARIS!!! Hope everthing is alright, but BOOOO anyway!

Sorry about my absense guys, my net crashed, and my phone isn't really made for texting. I am here and off, but will be around periodically. Before I go I am going to

Vote Gay Lord

Just a hunch right now, but I think he is team fire, and was trying to make up for the DK, distancing technique. I see it as distancing since DK wasn't a noob, and am hoping we hit the fire leader or 3rd. Too many people put up a defense for him(JA) not to have been known. I may change, but right now, thats what I am seeing.

I think we can be pretty certain that neither Kaschan nor Galain were the leaders of Fire, actually. If Kaschan was one of Fire's leaders, do you really think that Galain would have made a serious case on him? I don't think so somehow. Conversely, if Galain were a Fire leader, I don't think Kaschan would have tried to retaliate quite so hard. Instead, he would have looked to turn attention onto someone, anyone else rather than his leader. It doesn't make any sense, in my eyes, to assume that part of the Fire leadership is down.


@D'riss: I have to say I haven't found much more stuff on HP than is already being bandied about. I did find his case on Rashan quite interesting though - might have a look into that at some point. The only thing I found that could tie in with him being a first/third is this:

Hood's Path, on Feb 11 2009, 10:31 AM, said:

Just noticed this...Is this true?! I arrived later and assumed everybody saw the same rules I did

Silanah, on Feb 11 2009, 09:00 AM, said:

I'm not convinced that the point about Galain not knowing that firsts and thirds could communicate off thread is valid.

I didn't realise that until it was pointed out either, as I am pretty sure it wasn't in the game mechanics at the very start of the game and both he and I were on then, and I didn't have any reason to go back and look for changes. I could have been some sort of leader or not, and it would not have had an impact on whether I knew about it or not.

Which could read as a 1st/3rd scrambling to make sure he's got all his facts right so that he doesn't get caught out should the discussion continue in that direction. It's pretty weak stuff though.

[Omtose]

what do you mean what?

[D'riss]

Look at what I bolded and underlined.

If 3 people voted, how did 6/7 vote?

Path-Shaper's most recent update was 5 votes total, of which 1 was a joke vote Telas canceled afterward.

This post has been edited by D'riss: 12 February 2009 - 03:11 PM

[Omtose]

I edited because I saw that, it reads 6/7 didn't vote. In your quote too which is why I was asking why you asked.

[D'riss]

Oh, I think I cross-posted with your edit. My bad.

[Omtose]

no problem, little misunderstanding. I saw that happen in my post and thought math fail.

[D'riss]

Okay, I have some work to do so I'm going to get on that and log back on some time later. Hopefully some more discussion will come up before I get back.

edit for clarity.

This post has been edited by D'riss: 12 February 2009 - 03:15 PM

[Tennes]

I went back and had another look at HP.

After HP had suggested that claiming BM was a suspicious thing to to, I asked him about the inconsistency in the case:

Tennes, on Feb 11 2009, 04:52 PM, said:

You're going to have to explain to me the difference between claiming BM and claiming not to be 1st, 3rd or 7th. Because from a logical standpoint they're the same thing.

Look who jumps in to defend HP:

Galain, on Feb 11 2009, 01:55 PM, said:

Its a question of subtlety.

Claiming BM is suspicious, why would you do that.

Claiming not to be the others shows what you are, but because you never outright claim it, it is more likely to be believed.

I still find it contradictory, and especially so now that HP has claimed BM himself, by the way.

Part of the case against HP is currently that he distanced from team fire, perhaps suspecting that people were going to go after team fire. A low level player might not be too worried about that, but a high level player would.

And now we have a member of team fire defending HP. Conclusion? HP is a likely leader of team fire.

[Telas]

Tennes, on Feb 12 2009, 05:29 PM, said:

I went back and had another look at HP.

After HP had suggested that claiming BM was a suspicious thing to to, I asked him about the inconsistency in the case:

Tennes, on Feb 11 2009, 04:52 PM, said:

You're going to have to explain to me the difference between claiming BM and claiming not to be 1st, 3rd or 7th. Because from a logical standpoint they're the same thing.

Look who jumps in to defend HP:

Galain, on Feb 11 2009, 01:55 PM, said:

Its a question of subtlety.

Claiming BM is suspicious, why would you do that.

Claiming not to be the others shows what you are, but because you never outright claim it, it is more likely to be believed.

I still find it contradictory, and especially so now that HP has claimed BM himself, by the way.

Part of the case against HP is currently that he distanced from team fire, perhaps suspecting that people were going to go after team fire. A low level player might not be too worried about that, but a high level player would.

And now we have a member of team fire defending HP. Conclusion? HP is a likely leader of team fire.

That's a pretty logical case, only problem is, how sure are we that BMs will interact with the masters, or even defend them? Specially if there isnt much pressure on them. Drawing symp links is always difficult.

[Fener]

@Tennes: Ah, I hadn't noticed Galain coming to HP's defence, that's a good spot. On the other hand, the fact that it is you making the case when you were one of the one's who dropped a random vote on HP to start kind of invalidates my suspicion that you were using that as a signal to HP that you were his symp.

I didn't think the distancing evidence on HP was especially strong, but when you couple it with Galain defending him it kind of gives him a reason for doing it. So I think I'll

Vote Hood's Path

[Tennes]

Telas, on Feb 12 2009, 03:37 PM, said:

That's a pretty logical case, only problem is, how sure are we that BMs will interact with the masters, or even defend them? Specially if there isnt much pressure on them. Drawing symp links is always difficult.

We can't be certain that team-mates will interact with each other, you're correct.

But it's all we have to go on in this game. If we don't draw links between players, won't our lynches be entirely random?

[Omtose]

In a way it makes sense that HP would try to distance self if a BM of Fire, because if we get the higher-ups then BMs get switched to a different school. So that is logical and also makes me think that perhaps one of the fire people we got was important. Why else would you try to distance yourself on day 2? The answer is like Tennes says... if you are a leader who wants to be seen as BM, and thus be safe for a bit. Added to the fact that Galain a known fire helped defend... well it looks bad.
vote Hood's Path

[Telas]

Tennes, on Feb 12 2009, 05:43 PM, said:

Telas, on Feb 12 2009, 03:37 PM, said:

That's a pretty logical case, only problem is, how sure are we that BMs will interact with the masters, or even defend them? Specially if there isnt much pressure on them. Drawing symp links is always difficult.

We can't be certain that team-mates will interact with each other, you're correct.

But it's all we have to go on in this game. If we don't draw links between players, won't our lynches be entirely random?

Not saying we shouldnt do it, just that we should keep in mind we could be wrong if it's based on something as small as that. We should also be wary of deciding that someone was a leader unless a first admits to killing them at night, otherwise it might bite us in the ass later.

[Liosan]

Wait so you want us to hold off on finding leaders until one reveals? Thats just plain stupid.

[Tennes]

Telas, on Feb 12 2009, 04:00 PM, said:

Tennes, on Feb 12 2009, 05:43 PM, said:

Telas, on Feb 12 2009, 03:37 PM, said:

That's a pretty logical case, only problem is, how sure are we that BMs will interact with the masters, or even defend them? Specially if there isnt much pressure on them. Drawing symp links is always difficult.

We can't be certain that team-mates will interact with each other, you're correct.

But it's all we have to go on in this game. If we don't draw links between players, won't our lynches be entirely random?

Not saying we shouldnt do it, just that we should keep in mind we could be wrong if it's based on something as small as that. We should also be wary of deciding that someone was a leader unless a first admits to killing them at night, otherwise it might bite us in the ass later.

True. Paranoia is a mafia player's best friend.

There's an obvious way the case could be proven wrong, by the way, and that's for HP to come up as a member of a different team. Although I doubt HP will agree to this test.