[Thyrllan]

Why do the necros have to play the odds at all?

It doesnt matter. They aren't going to kill the creature, cause they cant kill. The worst they'll do is try to recruit him.
And since the creature knows them, he wont kill them.

So, it wont matter to them if they hit the creature. They dont kill. It doesnt die.

[Shadow]

Meanas, on Jan 20 2009, 12:03 PM, said:

You don't know were I am coming from with the train that you derailed. Come on you knocked the train off of Omtose when there were only 5 votes. I don't know why people keep crying about having 5 votes when It takes 12 votes to lynch someone. 5 votes would seem to be the minmum number that you need to be able to apply any pressure on a person. Early in the game you don't need reasons for voting for someone you are voting to get reactions from people. Yet even before Omtose could react you went ahead and defended him and moved the train off of him. Did you really think that with 26 hours remaining in the first day that there was a good chance of Omtose being lynched? That smacked of a killer panicking when he sees his partner about to get under a lot of pressure.

Now a person doesn't have to be a symp to defend someone else but when someone jumps in and posts and elaborate defense before the people who are voting can get any kind of reaction then yeah it is suspicious. As for ignoring one set of scum and focusing on another. That will just allow the killers to hide better and remove their rivals. The killers will also be able to lower the population nessasary for a lynch while maintaining their own numbers (assuming that there is a higher number of killers and their symps then of cult members) If we only focus on the cult then we could easily end up at a place were the killers (with their symps) have enough numbers to successfully block or run lynches. Of course this same thing could be said about ignoring the cult and only focusing on the killers which is why we need to look for both.

Side note this was what I was starting to write up when I saw that Liosan had already made a case.

Below is where Serc sidelined Omtoses train.

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 02:46 AM, said:

Well, I was assuming that even a blocked blocked nk would stop em, so I had to clarify it. I personally don't like Kesso much myself, but Im not suspicious of him, nor am I suspicious of Omtose.
Rashan and Galain annoy me, truly.
With two Necros, it'd just be good luck if both were new players, I think we have to assume they are dangerous.
And yeah I think we need a BP tonight.

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 03:03 AM, said:

I just realised he got 5 votes, which is quite a lot in the opening hours... That's too many for my liking, especially as most of them had no real reasoning behind them.

This is a good point. If Serc is lynched and and we get a guilty CF I think Omtose is a natural starting point. Actually, with the amount of info that a Serc lynch is going to give us Guilty or not guilty. And the lack of any other candidates, I am going to

remove vote

vote Serc

I think this is the best way to help the team at this point. Serc has had a chance to respond, and there are only 3 hours left. I will be around if another option comes up in the next 3 hours that I like better.

[Thyrllan]

Well, im going soon.
Not going to vote, but im fairly sure serc'll be lynched anyhow.

[Serc]

There is no evidence given when I come up inno... We're divided into people who don't think the case has merit and those who do. The scum could be on either side of the argument, and as there are two factions of them, its quite likely they are, so either way, once I'm lynched, its back to step one again, there will be nothing connecting the scum, and equal chance hitting scum in people defending me and people attacking me.
But anyway, until Im proven inno, you probably won't take much stock of my words.

[Serc]

Anyone want to take a look at D'riss's posts and offer opinions?

[Kaschan]

Thyrllan, on Jan 20 2009, 08:37 PM, said:

Why do the necros have to play the odds at all?

It doesnt matter. They aren't going to kill the creature, cause they cant kill. The worst they'll do is try to recruit him.
And since the creature knows them, he wont kill them.

So, it wont matter to them if they hit the creature. They dont kill. It doesnt die.

Eh? Not sure what your point is. My point was that the necros won't know who's going to die, so they'll have to guess with their night action. So there's a good chance they won't recruit each night.

[Kaschan]

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 08:47 PM, said:

Anyone want to take a look at D'riss's posts and offer opinions?

i've got ten minutes free. Is there a way to show all of his posts in the thread without having to troll through it? Sigh, I'll have a go.

[Serc]

But they WILL kill every night. So they either kill or grow larger, whereas the killers are only able to kill.
Don't get me wrong, I don't really care which of the scum we get, scum is scum, but I really do think necros are more of a danger.

[Serc]

Yeah go to his last post, click his name, and it should have "show members posts"

[Galain]

I had a look at D'riss earlier and the only thing that struck me was that they were on both major lynch trains.

[Kaschan]

Nuts, sorry, don't have ten mins. Tea is ready. Back later.

[Shadow]

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 12:47 PM, said:

Anyone want to take a look at D'riss's posts and offer opinions?

I'll take a look. Give me a couple seconds.

also, you said so yourself. There is scum on your train. I don't know how going from 22 possible scum to 11 (probably less) possible scum is not valuable information.

[Rashan]

Alright, I am back, the roads are salted and cleared, so I am going to read the days events and I'll be back.

[Serc]

He also seems to have an element of sitting on the fence about him though, especiallly with regards to me. Until Liosan's case, he didn't seem to have a problem with me, indeed, he agreed with me on one point. Then, the moment Liosan's case got through, he changed his tune entirely.
-Symping-
Was obvious, I brought it up myself lol
-Necros-
Look, I've explained how they are more dangerous, not that we should ignore the killers for them
-the witch mechanic-
Jesus Christ
-and the other thing which was, iirc, trivial-

So, suddenly he decides to vote me, and argue for my vote. He also disappears fairly early, which prevents him from dealing with the fallout of my CF, saying he'll be busy.

His first post was jumping on Omtose's train.

He doesn't add up for me. That's the entirety of his ten posts.

[Thyrllan]

Hoods path:

Begins the day joking about.

Hood's Path, on Jan 19 2009, 03:59 PM, said:

Kessobahn, on Jan 19 2009, 07:50 AM, said:

it will always be gut on the first day, and in all honesty I am of two minds about Omtose. For one I don't like the post and the nervousness it radiates, but at the same time I do recognice that small things become huge in the absence of larger blocks of information – which is essentially why day 1 lynches are as odd as they are – ergo I may be less objective in this regard than I would've liked. Omtose is a strong player, if a bit too willing to parrot my every say in an attempt to seem wise, and so I am not quite convinced we should move to lynch him today..

But at the same time, he seems to guilty!

He does seem very guilty! The thing about it is he's not really doing anything to deny the guilt. It seems odd to me, at first he was nervous about it and now he's throwing it all out there in a way. Very erratic behaviour! An attempt at some reverse psychology perhaps?

Little comment about omtoses fake reveal, how he seems very guilty. Doesn't actually say much here, doesn't commit to anything.

Hood's Path, on Jan 19 2009, 08:37 PM, said:

Well I personally haven't seen anybody post anything blatantly suspicious, so there doesn't seem to be much point to vote unless it's as a joke. I pay more attention to a person's behaviour than whether or not they've been racking up the posts. I'm not going to vote someone just because they haven't posted ten times in the first eight hours.

Defense of low-posters here seems reasonable enough.
Hasn't seen anything suspicious.
Again, doesn't get involved. Very non commital.
Very middle of the road, which is a place where scum generally reside.

Then another post defending low posters.

Hood's Path, on Jan 20 2009, 02:53 PM, said:

Morning all! Just finished catching up.

I didn't really look closely enough at Serc until Liosan pulled everything together. None of his statements are terribly damning initially but put them back to back like that and they start to look less offhanded. He mentioned the witch using her BP on day one several times. It seems a bit early to me to be pushing this kind of action. Why not use it later on when numbers are a bit more of a factor? I think he was pushing to use it now and get it out of the way while it would do the least harm. I don't see any real advantage in repeating day one.

I'm not one hundred percent convinced, but this case seems much stronger than the one that was being built against Omtose.

vote serc

Votes serc. Didn't look closely, which strikes me as odd, since generally people look closely at people in mafia. Only the scum aren't looking as much.
Important points in this post:

1. He says he isn't 100 percent convinced, which is very convinient for him later if serc comes up innocent. Again, he is massively middle of the road.
2. He says he dissagrees with the witch using the BP. Bear this in mind.

Hood's Path, on Jan 20 2009, 06:10 PM, said:

I'm not sure why you find my statement and vote suspicious. I was simply pointing out the fact that Serc's comments did not seem troublesome until you look at them as a whole. Lisoan's post came as part of my first opportunity to look at all of the posts once I signed in for the morning. I came to the conclusion after reading through everyone's comments. I really don't see the advantage of using the bp right away and having a repeat of day one. Serc's actions seem to be far more suspicious than the statements made by Omtose at the outset of the game. I did state I wasn't 100% convinced, he just stands out at the moment. I'm still interested in what Serc has to say for himself, I will be around so I can still change my vote. I wasn't one of those who voted and then said I was leaving or waffled after making my coments. For now my vote stands, we'll see what Serc has to say.

Here agin, he shows he isn't doing much, Again, he is against the witch using BP. Emphasises that he wasn't 100% convinced, how convinient he mentioned that earlier. Is interested in what serc has to say. Draws the attention away from himself, to the other players, who left or waffled.

Hood's Path, on Jan 20 2009, 07:21 PM, said:

After actually hearing Serc explain his rationale behind using the BP on the first night, it makes much more sense to me. It is the most effective way to limit the Necros, would give the innos more of a chance by virtue of the greater numbers. I'm satisfied with the rest of his explanation as well.

Remove Vote

Removes vote. Suddenly changes his mind. Is completely contradictory. Suddenly, he is for the witch using her BP. Is satisfied with the rest, but doesn't go into detail. Interesting here, is that its after serc explains. If I recall correctly, serc explained that earlier. Which he would know in the first place, had he read up on him. It was probably in liosans case too. Which he'd know, if it was. Unless ofc, he was just hopping on the train, very non-commitally, without actually caring about why. Which is a scum thing to do.

Still VERY middle of the road.

Hood's Path, on Jan 20 2009, 07:26 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on Jan 20 2009, 11:17 AM, said:

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 06:36 PM, said:

This is a completely bullshit case, and I'm amazed its managed to sway innos. If you read over this, you will notice that his only arguments are based on not liking how I play, disliking my advice given to the Witch, and also misunderstanding the word "annoy". Christ almighty, half of those posts were saying he mostly agreed with me lol. If I get lynched for that, I'm going to be fucking pissed.

The rest of your defence I could just about accept, but this did not convince me. The case is NOT completely bullshit - certainly there are parts of it that are weak to the point of being meaningless, but at its core there are your persistant attempts to magnify the perceived threat posed by the Necros. It does not do to dismiss something like this out of hand - reacting with anger makes you look, in my eyes, to be more guilty. Be rational, reasonable, and address everything as best you can, and you'd go some way to redeeming yourself in my eyes.


Vote Serc

Although I've removed my vote I will agree with Anomandaris in regards to your anger. Even if you are pissed you would have been better served by jsut laying out the facts of your argument. While the use BP on day 1 was a big factor for me, there were other people who had some legitimate questions. You didn't adress alot of those questions/suspicions in your response.

The use of the BP was a big factor, or so he says. Yet he thinks its a good idea, these days?

So, impressions:

Hoods path is very middle of the road. He is contradictory. He seems to make little effort to read up, not even sure he read lios case, he just hops on, agreeing.
In fact, over all, I dont think he's contributed at all, he's just made vague comments, voted, removed, done nothing.

Remove vote, vote hoods path

For being contradictory, making little sense, and being massively middle of the road, while trying to show a bit of content.

This post has been edited by Thyrllan: 20 January 2009 - 09:04 PM

[Meanas]

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 09:47 PM, said:

Anyone want to take a look at D'riss's posts and offer opinions?

I just took a quick look. Every one else can do it HERE .

He is showing characteristics of a scum trying to hide/lynch/while attempting to be relivant. He is definately someone who I will be keeping an eye on.


Edited to remove a second link to the same link I have already.

This post has been edited by Meanas: 20 January 2009 - 09:05 PM

[Shadow]

@ Serc-

D'riss posts aren't much. He agrees with you about the dangerousness of the cult, then is swayed by Serc and votes for 4 reasons. Nothing to fishy there. The one thing that does stand out is his Post once with a vote on Omtose and then leaving for the day. Thats a little odd.

EDIT Cross with a bunch, yes he is rather Wishy washy/middle of the road

This post has been edited by Shadow: 20 January 2009 - 09:09 PM

[Serc]

Shadow, on Jan 20 2009, 09:06 PM, said:

@ Serc-

D'riss posts aren't much. He agrees with you about the dangerousness of the cult, then is swayed by Serc and votes for 4 reasons. Nothing to fishy there. The one thing that does stand out is his Post once with a vote on Omtose and then leaving for the day. Thats a little odd.

One of his reasons for voting me is the exact thing he agrees with me about.
That, imo, stinks.

Come out, come out, D'riss...

Vote D'riss

Because I don't think Liosan's case was enough to sway someone who agreed with me already previously.

[Thyrllan]

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 07:49 PM, said:

Has no one anything to say, out of curiosity?I hate posting my defences and having no one comment on them.

What he said, except switch defence for case.

[Thyrllan]

Serc, on Jan 20 2009, 09:09 PM, said:

Shadow, on Jan 20 2009, 09:06 PM, said:

@ Serc-

D'riss posts aren't much. He agrees with you about the dangerousness of the cult, then is swayed by Serc and votes for 4 reasons. Nothing to fishy there. The one thing that does stand out is his Post once with a vote on Omtose and then leaving for the day. Thats a little odd.

One of his reasons for voting me is the exact thing he agrees with me about.
That, imo, stinks.

Come out, come out, D'riss...

Vote D'riss

Because I don't think Liosan's case was enough to sway someone who agreed with me already previously.

HP also pulled this trick.
Aswell as his other ones.

Including pulling a bunny from a hat