[Mockra]

Sorry ive not been around today. I couldve posted more, but didnt, cause ive became rather sick, and have been sleeping on the sofa most of the day, cause the rest of my house is freezin. Its possible im not gonna be around much later on either, but i'll try.
Computer isnt making my headache any better, so im not going to be around long, but i'll re-read and try to contribute a bit.
Gamelons thing on korv was a bit wierd, but it seems an honest enough mistake. I mean, 3/21 is easy enough to miss.

[Mockra]

Shadow, on Nov 14 2008, 05:51 PM, said:

Telas, on Nov 14 2008, 11:58 AM, said:

Meanas, on Nov 14 2008, 03:50 PM, said:

The thing that nags at me about Shadows reveal is that if Shadow is cult as are his friends, they can back this story up and killing of one of their own makes sense to protect themselves and help build up this reveal. Also the theory that the cult can only recruit once every other night makes no sense to me. So as I see it they have the number to pull this sort of thing off.

Now this is just a thought and as such I would like feed back on it, maybe I have miscounted or something, but I reckon the cult have the numbers to pull this off.

Actually hadn't thought of this possibility. It would be incredibly sneaky and hard to pull off. But just more reason to wach him.

Warning about the weekend. We can't just let our play tail off, from PS announcement I get the impression that we still have limited time left in the day and so need to keep working on a lynch.

It could be possible. But a few circumstances would have to accomodate that:
1) I needed to know on beforehand that Omtose was cult to pull of this play as an alibi. My partners would be have to be willing to confirm this story, and that means I either have to mislead them, or they are in on the deal.
Since I doubt every cultist learns every other members identity, that would mean that I'm one of the original cultists = a suspected cult leader/ recruiter. Me doing this would then be incredibly gutsy, as said, and if confirmation was needed, I'd out several other cultists as well, and you might wish to test my words by lynching me or one of them instead. Ouch.

Let's assume you're right though. I'm a cult leader, one of the two initial cultists.
There are a few others reasons left why I personally then would not fake reveal.

1) it is day 4 now, 3 nights have passed.
That would mean that with 1 recruit a night and losing Omtose, cult would be 4 out of 14, which aren't such good odds yet to sacrifice a cultist, also because there has been no fire whatsoever on Omtose or me beforehand. Chances are after all that future lynches will now start bringing up cultists as well, as the cult grows and player numbers drop.

Add to that that I, as a possible recruiter (hence knowing Omtose) put myself on the line.
By vigging Omtose as an alibi, all I bought the cult is 1 day, since I encourage roled players to stick to their targets of last night.
Not to mention that even when all listened to me today + tonight, I would still be a prime target for finders, guards and vigs after that, agree? Both finds and vigs would lead to my demise. It would then be all down to the second recruiter to pick things up. That's a lot of trust to put in 1 player when you still could have 2.

2) if you add a bit of maths: the cult now lost Omtose, but gains a recruit tonight. Even numbers, but a day's lost (in which finds can be done, possessions can occur, etc).
I may be guarded, investigated or vigged tonight, and I certainly will not last more than two days without a single one of those actions targeting me.
So, tomorrow's recruit would compensate for my calculated loss. Cult would be near stagnant for two days and only gain on town due to the dropping number of players... were I cult, I would not risk it.

3) I was preparing the ground for a lynch on Omtose yesterday night, like I said I wanted to do since he featured on my partner's scumlist. Straight after my initial comment, Ruse jumped on. Now, suppose I could have driven Omtose to a lynch today, would starting that train on Omtose not give me the same alledged 'he can't be cult' immunity, with far less publicity, hassle and chance to be called out on it? And if it failed, I could have vigged him then, and add double credits to my story.

4) Regardless of what kind of role I could have in the cult: I'm vocal.
If I'm a cultist, calling attention to myself like this will result in drawing attention. It will mean that I'll be doubted. That means that, for the cult to maintain a position from which it could steer/ direct through sheer volume of posts, another cultist has to take over the vocal role in my stead, since I'll be doubted, or cult will lose some control over the direction of play. If they already have another vocal player, they'd still lose a vocal guy. Once again, not the best play that's possible.

Lastly: suppose I was not the one who vigged him, but claimed it nonetheless.
There hasn't been a counterclaim yet, has there? Most players have been online though.
And if there's going to be one, I hope you'll lynch both of us claimants... that alone would be enough to deter me from fake revealing (were I a cultist).

So, all in all, were I a culted vig, I'd stay silent instead of pulling off this reveal.

And now, I'm going to read the Ruse case.

A few points.
Did anyone else think this was a little bit of an over-reaction from shadow?

Telas says he wants a guard reveal, which im not sure about, although id generally say asking anyone to reveal is a bit scummy. After all, it is possible that the killer witheld. If it was telas, and he witheld, it would be on the hope of a guard reveal, I expect.

The only merit I see in a korv lynch, is that he is a fairly likely possession target, although given our history of low poster lynches, and with how the disco game went, it seems not quite so likely.

Ruses comment about Thyr is still slightly wierd, but im not sure its worth a lynch. Its not really much wierder than gamelons RI claim.

Not sure about Meanas. Gonna have to go read his posts.

This post has been edited by Mockra: 15 November 2008 - 09:41 PM

[Ruse]

Telas, on Nov 15 2008, 05:08 PM, said:

I personally support a guard coming forward. I think the chance to remove the last of one of the anti-town factions in worth it. I appear to be alone in this view, but I thought I would put in my feelings on the matter.

I'm going to be busy over the weekend, but I will try to show my face from time to time. I agree that we shouldn't be seriously considering lynching anyone until the time has restarted. At that point my vote will go back onto Ruse (like a dog with a bone I am) though I could go for a Meanas lynch. I honestly don't see the merit in a Korv lynch though.

I agree that a guard coming forward would make our lives a lot easier. If this were closer to the endgame and could possibly win the game for us, then I'd be all for it. Nailing the last of the Ivet would be awesome. It would give us way more control over the game, especially since we wouldnt have to worry about Nks anymore. The main problem is that there is no such thing as CI in this game. I feel really sorry for the finder (if there is still one) since whoever he did a find on the previous night becomes an option again the following night. If we assume that cult and possessed can target anyone they want, then an outed guard becomes a prime target.

Which is why I would prefer for the guard to stay silent for the time being. It reduces their chance of being recruited, which is a good thing. That's why I suggested the plan that I did. If the guard was guarding meanas (which seems to be the most likely considering how he's been suspected of being Ivet since early in the game) then he should keep quiet. If everyone has checked in and noone has claimed guard, it's safe to say Meanas is the last Ivet. We then decide if we want to lynch him immediately to free up the guard, or keep guarding him and work try lynch someone else, knowing the Ivet threat is contained. If the guard was targetting someone (not Meanas) on a hunch/luck then he has two options. Try build a very strong case against that person. If the target didnt let anything slip, then he will most likely have to reveal whenever the Meanas train builds up speed to prevent an inno lynch. Personally, I'm hoping Meanas is the last scum, since it will make things a little bit simpler.

[Mockra]

I think meanas is quite likely, as if a guard knows he isnt, he would probably speak up, unless he thinks hes cult.
The only risk of his silence is him being possessed or recruited.

Edit: Anyhow, theres my thoughts, and no one seems around to discuss. My head is pounding, so im off to lie down.

This post has been edited by Mockra: 15 November 2008 - 10:12 PM

[Telas]

@ Ruse.


That could work, I guess. So for the record I will state that I am not a guard.

[Gamelon]

@Ruse: It was not a hectic defence. Like you said yourself it only took you 2 minutes to check through his posts as he has so few of them. I didnt think I was being aggressive and was hoping to lean toward comedy - maybe it is my northerness.

I am still not 100% about Meanas being the Ivet - I think the case on him gathered momentum on the back of his internet issues. He actually told us this a tonne of times. Galayn Lord makes my scum senses tingle but I have nothing to build a case on.

[Galayn Lord]

Gamelon, on Nov 15 2008, 04:07 PM, said:

Galayn Lord makes my scum senses tingle but I have nothing to build a case on.

Yeah, there's a reason you have nothing to build a case on. Because I'm the most powerless Innocent Bystander left in the game.

I still want to know how the Town is expected to win - three Killers, a Cult (which I suspect started with 1 Recruiter and 1 Symp), and even if we get rid of scum they can potentially return as Possessed, with who knows what fucking powers. Oh, and we're down, what, 4 CI? I'm a bit too drunk to actually recall, but if it's 4, that leaves us with ten Townies at most, when accounting for Cult recruiting. Possibly as few as 7, with Possession likely thrown in.

This game is going to end as a showdown between Cult and Possessed, with Killers and Townies a pathetic afterthought.

[Shadow]

Regarding the Korvalain not apologising enough:
I'm sorry, but "3/21 is not enough" is complete bullshit. He's apologising in near 15% of his posts. When do you apologise enough? 20%, 25%? Or is that the point where you get accused of only apologising, and not playing? Meh. For the careful reader, it is obvious that he's busy. End of story. The case and train on him wasn't primarily about his post count anyway.

@ Mockra: I've answered the exact same question concerning my whole post about my reveal possibly being a cult trick before. My answer then is what it is now: I hadn't thought of that angle, and simply explored all the options. I also said that, in hindsight, all that reasoning just made me vulnerable and I should have stuck with the first line of my defense. As also said, the reveal makes me a perfect target for a finder to check whether I am what I say I am: town.

@ Mockra, part deux: a killer withholding his kill could be the explanation. However, (if you believe my reveal and vig) that just means that he either did this 2 nights in a row, or something else happened in night 3 that took his kill away, like a healer being spot on.

Now, to continue with my reread. I fear I'm not getting it done completely before tomorrow (am at 1/3 now), and then work will not allow me to finish it.

[Shadow]

Slow game is slow

[Galayn Lord]

Shadow, on Nov 16 2008, 01:07 PM, said:

Slow game is slow

Yeah, and I'll likely be out for the first twelve hours after restart.

Ah well.

[Path-Shaper]

Ok this Mod is going to bed. Unless the other one gets on you will be mod less till I get back. The timer will start at it's regularly scheduled time regardless of me posting.

[Korvalain]

The weekend is over and I have some time to post for a change at work. I see people are talking about the apologing. What do you want? Apologies in every single post? I turn up after work and normally post in a 3 or 4 hour block during the evening, so naturally the first post back from my absence is the one I apologise in.

I just mentioned Gamelon that you seemed to be adding to the case on me by making somthing up that wasn't true. If you had quoted the original case then fair enough, but you seemed to be voting for a slightly different reason and added to the case on me incorrectly and I found it a little suspicious.


I've done a little reading of the last few days just looking to see if there's been a change of styles from someone and they might be possesed. Its hard to tell with the weekend and all though as people have been away and not posting. Its also damn hard to tell if someone has been possessed or not.

There's also not a lot to go on at the moment either in the way of looking for the cult or the last killer. We've got plenty of time and we should explore other options, but I reckon its going to come back to Meanas, Ruse or myself. I'm probably going to favour Ruse from those three. Myself obviously I am aware of my own innocence. Meanas has that link to Rashan/Ano that won't go away, but he's keeping his nose clean at the moment so thats all there is. Its enough for a vote, just, but its not my favorite case.

My candidate on a whim for possesion would be Fener. Seems like this posting style has changed a little but its hard to say. He's also a touch lynch happy. But there's nothing really to build a case on.

I wondering about Tennes and him being recruited in the cult. He made a post saying why it wouldn't happen and it would be a terrible idea and I hate it when people do that, I always feel like someone is trying too hard to convince me.

[Galain]

OK, back in action biatches. Timer should start soon and we need decisions.

14 players left, so who is that?

Liosan, Shadow, Hood's Path, Galain, Telas, Tennes, Fener, Meanas, Emurlahn, Galayn Lord , Gamelon, Korvalain, Ruse, Mockra

I did a quick re-read yesterday, didn't finish it though. I took some notes and quotes on the side, but I left them at my home computer

But it went like this:

Tennes and Shadow, I trust are not original cult, nor Ivet, because of their reveals which I have no reason to not trust right now.

There were a few posts by Ruse early that makes me doubt he's either. It involved saying he got mod confirmation that the killers are Ivets and not Edenists, which he should know if he was concerned. It could of course have been acting, but he sounded genuine.

Reading Telas's early anger, I realise it's a little forced. We often mention that scum tend to be non-aggressive, which is true, but this might be the reason he started like that. I don't see anything else that could justify some of the aggression in his early posts. But what is interesting is that this aggressivity is not directed, but general, which means he gives a sense of being tough without personnally pissing off anyone. Another interesting thing is that he's the one that gave early heat to Omtose, but then completely backed off. And we saw that Telas can be very consistent and thorough when he doesn't like someone like Rashan or Ruse, so why give Omtose this break? I'm thinking Telas is original or early recruit cult.

Liosan, HP, Emurlahn and Mockra I have no read whatsoever on. They've been cruising all game making easy decisions.

Gaylord has been a little more out there, and got heat because of that from that same crowd.

Fener and Korvalain are dangerous because I don't think I could spot a style change even if it was obvious, Korvalain for his early game non-disponibility and Fener because his posts are always very short. But Korvalain has come to play more recently, a bit before we lynched Rashan so I don't think the reason is possession, and I hope he keeps it up. Fener is my number 1 choice for being possessed.

As for Meanas, I strongly believe that he's the missing Ivet.

So, Meanas is a lynch I like, but since there's been two nights without a (noticeable) Ivet kill I fail to see the danger. We need to lynch cult, and possessed if there is one. The guard should stay silent even if we're about to lynch someone he didn't guard, because that's kinda the point. Only if HE gets close to getting lynched he should reveal, and sadly at that point we'll need to confirm he's telling the truth somehow, and with a CF that should be feasible.

So for now

vote Telas

for being cult IMO

[Galain]

Oh, I forgot Gamelon, sorry.

His day 1 RI reveal is still something I don't swallow, but I honestly don't know what to think about that. I fail to imagine someone sees a "original cult" or "killer" role PM and thinks "I better reveal RI in my first posts, that should do the trick".

But then again I've seen stranger things in this game.

[Emurlahn]

Well myself I still don't like Meanas or Ruse they both just don't seem right to me. The vote by Meanas on Tellan on the first day was totally random and I cant see any reason at all for it. Ruse I dont like because his general manner is just getting my attention as a bit dodgy, also IIRC he wasn't on the Ano train on the first day which in my mind definitely puts him on the suspect list for Ivets.
I'm not sure about korv but I dont think he's scum, I am however concerned that he is a good Possession target with his low number of posts not being too hard to copy, and would lynch him just to ease the suspicion that I think I will have for however long he remains with us.
@Galain :I hadn't much considered Telas, but you do bring up some valid points about the anger thing that I had forgotten so I will go back and do a read up of that now.

[Korvalain]

Finally some people showing up, was thread dead for a while.

Interesting summary there Galain, to be honest Telas isn't high on my list of suspects In my little spreadsheet I made today at work, I had him down as innocent and didn't see much to change it. But I didn't reread right from the start. Was the anger stuff on Day 1? If so I'll need to go back and take a look.

Emur, so your willing to lynch an innocent, because they are a good target for possession? You may have noticed I am a bad target for possession because everyone wants to lynch me.

I'd have thought people being possessed would either be the CIs like Tennes, or those under the radar.

[Shadow]

Heh, my re-read of Telas gave me 'angry Telas is angry' in my notes, and as an addition: what did his intelligent day 1 observation culminate into? We still have no clue as to that curious day 1 observation he made but which got lost in the pc trouble, and since we have been on a single track against the Ivet since then, it could be very valuable, but nowhere does he refer to it. On a calm day like yesterday or today, it was a perfect moment in time to pitch it again or to add to it, but he didn't (so far).

In hindsight, it seems like: 'look guys, I'm thinking, which is more than can be said of half of you, I'm willing to contribute, but the dog ate my case and so I won't do it again.'

Today, I would like to free the guard from his obligation to guard the last Ivet so that he can focus on cult. If he is recruited, his ability will be lost I think, and we'll start taking casualties again.

[Emurlahn]

Have just gone through Telas' Posts and regarding galains theory that the anger was a bit forced at the start, it seems that the only really overtly agressive post was becasue his computer swallowed a carefully written post, which il admit woul piss me off as well. Other than that his posting style seems to have been the same amount of aggression throughout, though I did start noticing a slight change a few days in in the style of posts and intent, but it was only slight so it could just be me being overly suspicious of everything. Then more recently I found this post

Telas, on Nov 15 2008, 03:08 PM, said:

I personally support a guard coming forward. I think the chance to remove the last of one of the anti-town factions in worth it. I appear to be alone in this view, but I thought I would put in my feelings on the matter.

I'm going to be busy over the weekend, but I will try to show my face from time to time. I agree that we shouldn't be seriously considering lynching anyone until the time has restarted. At that point my vote will go back onto Ruse (like a dog with a bone I am) though I could go for a Meanas lynch. I honestly don't see the merit in a Korv lynch though.

Because I can't personally see how a guard coming forward would be useful to the innos, as if at the moment he is guarding the killer then, he can help push a lynch on that player and in the meantime stops us getting killed, but if he reveals then he becomes a prime target for possession or cult recruitment.
At the moment I'm not quite convinced enough to place a vote on him over meanas or ruse, but he has got my attention a bit so I will be looking more closely at his following posts and if I see anything more damning I'l vote.

[Telas]

Galain, on Nov 17 2008, 08:49 AM, said:

Reading Telas's early anger, I realise it's a little forced. We often mention that scum tend to be non-aggressive, which is true, but this might be the reason he started like that. I don't see anything else that could justify some of the aggression in his early posts. But what is interesting is that this aggressivity is not directed, but general, which means he gives a sense of being tough without personnally pissing off anyone. Another interesting thing is that he's the one that gave early heat to Omtose, but then completely backed off. And we saw that Telas can be very consistent and thorough when he doesn't like someone like Rashan or Ruse, so why give Omtose this break? I'm thinking Telas is original or early recruit cult.

You are quite correct that my anger was fairly general. For quite a while it was just about everyone on thread who was focusing on roles and mechanics as opposed to finding scum, which is what pissed me off (well, just added to some real life anger, but anyway). I don't recall anything other than one IGMEOY post with regards to Omtose, hardly putting much in the way of heat on him. If there are others where I seriously condemn him, state that I'm relatively sure he's scum or vote for him, please quote them. Basically you are trying to turn nothing into something there.

@Shadow - The post that I lost was partly some exposition as to the value of bandwagons on day one. By the time I got back, people were genuinely trying to scumhunt and so that section was really worth repeating. The rest was outlining my thoughts on Rashan more clearly, something I would have repeated if it had ever become necessary. That post would have been meaningful then, but is unfortunately not anymore.

[Galain]

Has the timer re-started? Because if so we need to get back in the groove.

My vote on Telas is a bit out of nowhere, but I wanted to try something different and see if it would light some bulbs in other player's minds. I would also be happy to vote for Fener, who has played a bizarre game so far, and was my first "case" of the game.