[Korvalain]

Galain, on Nov 17 2008, 12:34 PM, said:

Has the timer re-started? Because if so we need to get back in the groove.

My vote on Telas is a bit out of nowhere, but I wanted to try something different and see if it would light some bulbs in other player's minds. I would also be happy to vote for Fener, who has played a bizarre game so far, and was my first "case" of the game.

I believe the timer has restarted, we do have the full 36 hours in front of us, we still have time up our sleeves.
I've browsed quite a bit of Telas and I'm not convinced of him being Cult, or Possesed or Ivet either, so I'd put him innocent for now.

Had a look at Fener, and is it me, or has he changed to more one or two line posts lately? I probably need to do a proper reread but just something strikes me a little strange with Fener.

[Ruse]

Hey, the thread has heated up a little. Interesting case there Galain. Personally, I think Telas is at worst a recruit. His early game actions dont really seem like cult to me. Emur noticed a slight chance in his play, so maybe he got recruited. Thing is, we have bigger fish to fry - the last Ivet, the original cult and the possessed. There's at least one, maybe even two of the original cult still in play. Right now we have a reasonably good chance of taking out the last Ivet. And I think it's something we should do while we have the chance. If the guard gets recruited or possessed, then the Ivet is free again. Like I said, I dont want a guard reveal, which is why I put forward the plan I did. I know in the worst case, the guard will have to step forward if someone other than Meanas was guarded the last two nights. So I'm hoping it was Meanas. If the guard does step forward, we lose an asset, since the chances of them being recruited/possessed increase quite a lot from that point onwards. But if whoever they proclaim to be the killer turns out to be Ivet, at least there's one more person we can exclude from the list of original cult. With all that in mind, if noone reveals as guard by the time everyone has checked in, I will be putting my vote on Meanas.

[Ruse]

Path-Shaper, on Nov 15 2008, 02:12 PM, said:

Morning breaks with out fanfare, you all feel lovely and rested, as the hangovers slowly settle into a manageable morning. All the corpses that usually hang around, or lie aboput have been removed, and the day seems much brighter than usual, that red cloud not getting any closer or blocking out the sky like it seemed desperate today the day before.

No one has died.

It is day 5, you have fucking ages, like seriously timer doesnt start until monday at 12 noon, upon which point you will have 24 hours.

14 players still remain, 8 for a lynch, 7 for night.


no one has voted.

We have 24 hours left, not 36

[Shadow]

@ Korv: I would have to reread to notice that.
I think DiBs did say that we had 24 hours when the timer started, not 36, but I could be mistaken.
No clue about Fener. He's been posting in short 1-2 line bursts on day 1, too, I think, but not sure. (as I am of very little )

@ Telas: aha. Pity that the subject was as it was I'd welcome a fresh look.

I finished my re-read eventually, but it was more skimming apart from the moment where I logged out on thursday and logged in again on friday afternoon... that had escaped me mostly due to Galain's vote on me and me deciding I would reveal, and is a part I want to re-read again (lots of discussion there with Mockra, Telas, Ruse I think). Nothing stood out, apart from a few observations on Serc that aren't all that relevant anymore since he is dead, and the fact that Rashan points at Meanas on day 2 (but consequently votes Galain), which can be constructed as either derailing attention to an inno or distancing and is completely WIFOM.

If anything, it leads me to conclude that both town and (non-lynched ) scum are incredibly careful this game.
Also, Gamelon still has me suspicious but it is very hard to build a case on the guy as there is nothing that points at him being scum, just a gutfeeling that's nagging at me.

And now, I'll enter a meeting, so see you all in a few.

[Korvalain]

So are days down to 24 hours now? They were 36 but it seems we're down to 24? I'd like the Mods to clarify that if they could.

I think after our great start everyone seems to have gone under, also with the killer not able to kill we aren't getting any info that way either. We also have the cult quietly expanding and we seem to be at a point where anyone left could be a member basically and there's no good leads to who it could be, outside perhaps Ruse but its a bit tenuous. Has anyone gone through Omtose's stuff for links? I recall skimming his posts at one point but outside him being really keen to lynch people didn't see any obvious connections.

[Galain]

That's one of the things I checked in my re-read, but besides the "IGMEOU" of Telas which he seemed to forget after, Omtose was slick like a wet fish.

So, that's why I noted the link even though it's weak. Although if we assume the other cult(s) are playing like this, then there is something to say about Fener, Emurlahn and Mockra, because I only remember those going for Anomander when the lynch was inevitable, me/Meanas, then Rashan the next day which were the obvious ones, and nothing more since the second Rashan lynch.

[Shadow]

Korvalain, on Nov 17 2008, 08:48 AM, said:

So are days down to 24 hours now? They were 36 but it seems we're down to 24? I'd like the Mods to clarify that if they could.

I think after our great start everyone seems to have gone under, also with the killer not able to kill we aren't getting any info that way either. We also have the cult quietly expanding and we seem to be at a point where anyone left could be a member basically and there's no good leads to who it could be, outside perhaps Ruse but its a bit tenuous. Has anyone gone through Omtose's stuff for links? I recall skimming his posts at one point but outside him being really keen to lynch people didn't see any obvious connections.

I think the 24 hours starting at noon was because the weekend freeze started somewhere on saturday, meaning we have a 48+ hour day 5.
I haven't read a lot of Omtose, most certainly not picking up hidden signals from his posts. No change in playstyle was noticeable. However, * if * we assume he is a recruiter, examining the trains he has been on might show us a bit about people jumping on and off based on his leadership. It is a dangerous approach since it is based on an assumption that can't be verified, but it would be a smart maneuver nonetheless.
If he is 'just' a recruit, he maybe only knew who Laton is, and no-one else.

It's becoming high tide: if we assume 2 cult from the start + 1 recruit a night - my vig = 5 culted players now, out of 14 (Don't know if Thyrllan was part of the 14 current players, but I assume not). That means there still is time, but we should start hitting cult soon, before they achieve critical mass (13 vs 6 day 6 if we lynch anyone but a cultist tonight, and if there is no kill by an Ivet).

[Galain]

If they recruit every night, then we're fucked and we might as well let the Ivet kill at night.

Even with a 100% cult-lynch rate until the end of the game, we can't cut down their numbers

[Galain]

By the way I will

remove vote
vote Fener

He pinged my radar with his early play, which had me feeling him as scum. He has been non-existent besides helping the Ivet lynches since. Maybe the vibes I picked up was original recruiter, at least more chances of that than Telas.

[Shadow]

I somewhat beg to differ.
There's the teacher, if she isn't recruited yet, who can hand out vigs that can reduce their number.
There also is the chance that we eliminate both recruiters (edit: assuming we didn't hit one in Omtose... if we did, though, yes for us and the situation is much better!), or manage to guard the active one.
Game isn't lost yet, but we've got to hit those edenists sometime soon.

This post has been edited by Shadow: 17 November 2008 - 02:29 PM

[Galain]

Shadow, on Nov 17 2008, 04:27 PM, said:

I somewhat beg to differ.
There's the teacher, if she isn't recruited yet, who can hand out vigs that can reduce their number.
There also is the chance that we eliminate both recruiters (assuming we didn't hit one in Omtose, in which case, yes for us!), or manage to guard the active one.
Game isn't lost yet, but we've got to hit those edenists sometime soon.

I know, I was being pessimistic. But add the possessed, which we also have to get rid of as soon as they arrive since we don't know how often that happens, the possible remaining killler which we'll have to take care of one day, and we're running low on actions.

That teacher better be a good one, and motivated

[Shadow]

I had a pretty and motivated teacher once * daydreams *

wait, what?

[Shadow]

Also, Gem, stop lurking, log in and post

[Meanas]

Ok so the weekend is gone and not much has happened besides a rather dubious plan by Ruse and Shadow.

I mean seriously trying to out a Guard like that? WTF?

First off, any innocent reveal of a decent power role is stupid. I would rather be lynched than have a guard stand up and confirm I was not guarded. Anyone who reveals a power role besides lover, is going to get targeted for recruitment or possession.

Second, I remember someone saying something about letting a finder perform his find, well I would like to remind you all that we have lost a finder already. What are the chances we have anymore.

Right now, I would still like a Ruse lynch, but that's me being stubborn. It appears though, that our remaining Ivet is either being guard, has had both his targets healed or he is unable to kill for some or other unseen reason.

Right now I feel that leaving the Ivet be and looking for the cult and the possessed is a better option. That being said, I am going to look at Mockra now.

[Path-Shaper]

It is day 5 you have roughly 20 hours left in the day.


1 vote for Telas (Galain)


Not voted
Liosan, Shadow, Hood's Path, Telas, Tennes, Fener, Meanas, Emurlahn, Galayn Lord , Gamelon, Korvalain, Ruse, Mockra

[Ruse]

I've said before, I'm sure there must be something that nerfs the and the possessed just a little. In most games it's usually something like a restriction who can be recruited, or only being allowed to recruit every second night. Since PS has said (not sure if this is in thread, or part of one of my long Q&A sessions with him) that recruited players lose their NAs, I'm assuming most, if not all, players can be recruited. So that means some sort of restriction to how often they can act, or a boatload of finders and decryptors to even the odds. Otherwise, with a recruitment, and a possession every night, (and the three ivets) we would have to hit nothing but scum pretty much every day (and night in the case of vigs) of the game to stand a chance of winning.

[Korvalain]

Well I am off to bed now, will be back in 8 hours or so, and see how things look. If it truely is only a 24 day we are going to need to get cracking a little.

@Meanas, the guard isn't so useful once we remove the killers. We have no way to tell if the guard action worked or not if its just down to the cult/possessed. There's no feedback and the Guard could be just hindering things if they pick out the Teacher or another important role. If we're are going down the wrong path and it looks like we are lynching an inno who we think is an Ivet (namely you really at this point) then its possible they may need to stand up and say who they guarded. Its last resort stuff certainly, they're better off keeping quiet but if we don't get a cult/ivet/possessed today then tomorrow I'd prefer to save an innocent and have the guard come forward and tell us who they guarded than lynch wrongly again.

As mentioned above in the numbers, worse case scenario and it will be starting to get tight.

[Meanas]

OK having just read through all of Mockra's posts, I have to say he is playing very much under the radar, his posts generally lack content and those with content are generally just agreeing with the crowd.

So to my mind if he is not in fact a cultist or a possessed or our last Ivet. He makes for a very good possession target...

Going to look at HP now.

[Shadow]

Meanas, on Nov 17 2008, 09:41 AM, said:

Ok so the weekend is gone and not much has happened besides a rather dubious plan by Ruse and Shadow.

I mean seriously trying to out a Guard like that? WTF?

First off, any innocent reveal of a decent power role is stupid. I would rather be lynched than have a guard stand up and confirm I was not guarded. Anyone who reveals a power role besides lover, is going to get targeted for recruitment or possession.

Second, I remember someone saying something about letting a finder perform his find, well I would like to remind you all that we have lost a finder already. What are the chances we have anymore.

Right now, I would still like a Ruse lynch, but that's me being stubborn. It appears though, that our remaining Ivet is either being guard, has had both his targets healed or he is unable to kill for some or other unseen reason.

Right now I feel that leaving the Ivet be and looking for the cult and the possessed is a better option. That being said, I am going to look at Mockra now.

22 players, 5 scum, and only 1 finder (+ partnerred vig), 1 guard, 1 teacher with vague powers and 2 lovers? That would be impossible odds.
Now, I dislike outing the guard, but since we have fairly little time in which we have to achieve a lot,
and since the guard will just go back to taking potshots in the dark hoping to hit either a possessed or a recruiter but with no confirmation of hitting either,
and since he/ she will lose his/her powers upon recruitment (which also incidentally means that there are fewer actions to guard against), which may come to the guard anyway whether he's hidden or not, I'd rather see the guard reveal and thereby nail the last Ivet than see the Ivet resurface because we lose our guard without us knowing.

Does that make sense, or am I losing it?

[Ruse]

Well, Korv essentially summarized what I was going to reply to Meanas.

I dont want a reveal by anyone, unless it's going to seal the game. So I wasnt trying to 'out a guard' as you put it. The whole point of my plan is to give the guard a reasonably high chance of not having to reveal. However, I think the death of the last Ivet is more important than the identity of one roled player, who in all likelyhood could lose his power due to recruitment/possession, even if he doesnt step forward. If we trust the guard to keep the ivet contained and we lose him, then we dont know who it was guarded these last two nights and will have to start all over again. If this happens late in the game, then we'd be pretty screwed.

The fact that we wont know if a guard was successful after the ivets are gone also makes him a lot less useful. As Korv says, he may even be counterproductive. But it would still be nice to have one around is we have a situation with two obvious suspects so we can lynch one, guard the other. And having him keep quiet would avoid the sheer WIFOM of having someone who is that big a target hanging around.

So I dont think it's the worst plan in the world, and it's far from 'dubious'. If it was Meanas that was guarded (and the guard stays silent), then we lynch him. If he turns up Ivet all is well and we start hunting for cult. If it wasnt him that was guarded, and it doesnt seem like whoever was will be lynched anytime soon, then the guard steps forward. We gain the identity of the last killer and add another name to the 'was not originally cult' list. Sure, we lose the secrecy surrounding the guard and gain a lot of WIFOM, but that's worst case and I think it's very risky not taking out the last killer while we have the chance.

@ Meanas, I would think you of all people would agree with this if you are innocent. If you are, the chances are high that the guard was shielding someone else, which would clear you if they stepped forward (of being an Ivet at least). I understand there is the slim possibility that the killer held their kill after Shadow's reveal, in an effort to draw out the guard. But that would mean that a healer managed to get it spot on night three, which is way less likely than a guard shielding an obvious suspect. Or that the guard might not come forward due to a a change in allegiance. I hadnt considered that there might be some other reason for the killer to stop killing, but to start considering stuff like that will just cripple the game.

So I'm prepared to take that risk, since the odds are pretty high that Meanas was guarded. Like I said before, if there isnt a guard reveal, I'm voting Meanas.