Telas, on Nov 14 2008, 11:58 AM, said:
Meanas, on Nov 14 2008, 03:50 PM, said:
The thing that nags at me about Shadows reveal is that if Shadow is cult as are his friends, they can back this story up and killing of one of their own makes sense to protect themselves and help build up this reveal. Also the theory that the cult can only recruit once every other night makes no sense to me. So as I see it they have the number to pull this sort of thing off.
Now this is just a thought and as such I would like feed back on it, maybe I have miscounted or something, but I reckon the cult have the numbers to pull this off.
Actually hadn't thought of this possibility. It would be incredibly sneaky and hard to pull off. But just more reason to wach him.
Warning about the weekend. We can't just let our play tail off, from PS announcement I get the impression that we still have limited time left in the day and so need to keep working on a lynch.
It could be possible. But a few circumstances would have to accomodate that:
1) I needed to know on beforehand that Omtose was cult to pull of this play as an alibi. My partners would be have to be willing to confirm this story, and that means I either have to mislead them, or they are in on the deal.
Since I doubt every cultist learns every other members identity, that would mean that I'm one of the original cultists = a suspected cult leader/ recruiter. Me doing this would then be incredibly gutsy, as said, and if confirmation was needed, I'd out several other cultists as well, and you might wish to test my words by lynching me or one of them instead. Ouch.
Let's assume you're right though. I'm a cult leader, one of the two initial cultists.
There are a few others reasons left why I personally then would not fake reveal.
1) it is day 4 now, 3 nights have passed.
That would mean that with 1 recruit a night and losing Omtose, cult would be 4 out of 14, which aren't such good odds yet to sacrifice a cultist, also because there has been no fire whatsoever on Omtose or me beforehand. Chances are after all that future lynches will now start bringing up cultists as well, as the cult grows and player numbers drop.
Add to that that I, as a possible recruiter (hence knowing Omtose) put myself on the line.
By vigging Omtose as an alibi, all I bought the cult is 1 day, since I encourage roled players to stick to their targets of last night.
Not to mention that even when all listened to me today + tonight, I would still be a prime target for finders, guards and vigs after that, agree? Both finds and vigs would lead to my demise. It would then be all down to the second recruiter to pick things up. That's a lot of trust to put in 1 player when you still could have 2.
2) if you add a bit of maths: the cult now lost Omtose, but gains a recruit tonight. Even numbers, but a day's lost (in which finds can be done, possessions can occur, etc).
I may be guarded, investigated or vigged tonight, and I certainly will not last more than two days without a single one of those actions targeting me.
So, tomorrow's recruit would compensate for my calculated loss. Cult would be near stagnant for two days and only gain on town due to the dropping number of players... were I cult, I would not risk it.
3) I was preparing the ground for a lynch on Omtose yesterday night, like I said I wanted to do since he featured on my partner's scumlist. Straight after my initial comment, Ruse jumped on. Now, suppose I could have driven Omtose to a lynch today, would starting that train on Omtose not give me the same alledged 'he can't be cult' immunity, with far less publicity, hassle and chance to be called out on it? And if it failed, I could have vigged him then, and add double credits to my story.
4) Regardless of what kind of role I could have in the cult: I'm vocal.
If I'm a cultist, calling attention to myself like this will result in drawing attention. It will mean that I'll be doubted. That means that, for the cult to maintain a position from which it could steer/ direct through sheer volume of posts, another cultist has to take over the vocal role in my stead, since I'll be doubted, or cult will lose some control over the direction of play. If they already have another vocal player, they'd still lose a vocal guy. Once again, not the best play that's possible.
Lastly: suppose I was not the one who vigged him, but claimed it nonetheless.
There hasn't been a counterclaim yet, has there? Most players have been online though.
And if there's going to be one, I hope you'll lynch both of us claimants... that alone would be enough to deter me from fake revealing (were I a cultist).
So, all in all, were I a culted vig, I'd stay silent instead of pulling off this reveal.
And now, I'm going to read the Ruse case.