[Path-Shaper]

It is day two. There are 6 hours, 25 minutes remaining.

16 dancers still getting down: Baudin,Dktorode, DrinksinBars, Gavin, Gem, Jump Around, Lacedaemonian, Lisheo, Mocker, Morgoth, Obdigore Silencer, Tapper, The Dude,Vengeance, Yellow,

9 votes to lynch, 8 to go to night.

2 Votes Morgoth: DiBs, Lacedaemonian
2 Votes Lacedaemonian: Vengeance, Gem Windcaster
3 Votes Gem: Silencer, Yellow, Gavin
3 votes Vengeance: Jump Around, Lisheo, Dktorode
1 vote Drinksinbars : Morgoth

Players yet to vote: Baudin, Mocker, Obdigore, The Dude, Tapper

Here you go children, hope this is correct, everyone else seems to be out right now - J_Slr

[Lacedaemonian]

I am away out in the next 30 mins or so.

There has been some pretty convincing arguments made today. Still nothing concrete though. It is interesting to see three of the four people I marked out as being suspicious in my premature 'goodbye post' getting two or three votes today. I dont think this is down to my post, but more down to the influx of the AWOL players who appear to have approached this game with more objectivity than was evident over the weekend. Not having a go at the weekend players - as I think we were in such small number that we were limited with our lines of enquiry. At one point I suspected all players of being killers/symps and even made some naive comment to suggest that. This is Catch 22:

"As always occurred when he quarreled over principles in which he believed passionately, he would end up gasping furiously for air and blinking back bitter tears of conviction. There were many principles in which Clevinger believed passionately. He was crazy."

I dont think there will be any lynchings tonight. Just got to survive the night. The J_Slr slaying still makes no sense to me.

PS Happy Birthday Baudin!! ( 21

This post has been edited by Lacedaemonian: 20 October 2008 - 05:27 PM

[drinksinbars]

@dude - if you notice I said you slipped offmy radar, not sure therewfore why the big defense was necessary. I also indicated gem wasn't very killer like.

I do change opinions you know. Interested how people view the main suspects though as it let's me see where the pieces lie.

@lace - you need to find the boundaries before pushin them is all, and I would like to think that's an end of that, some of us can be quite ott with slagging but we have been playing a long time together and not only know linmits but appreciate when others are joking. As we don't know you, we can't fully judge your humour, don't take it to heart, just play the game:)

@gem - if you aren't interested in playing modkill yourself, if you are inno us wasting a lynch on you hrts the team even more so telling people you don't mind dying is a bit of a cop out.

[The Dude]

Haha. Love the catch-22 refrence Lace. One of my top ten favorites. and very applicable too

I bet there will be a lynch tonight. As the dealine gets closer more ppl will vote. and then ppl will jump on the train! As some have pointed out lynch = info. (not sure if i am of that philosophy)

I haven't decided yet.. guess its down to Veng, or Gem. I am not quite getting the Venge. case, and Gem just seems really indifferent to the game in general. I'm so confused

[The Dude]

you said you wanted to hear my views on your theory, maybe I picked the wrong one... lol whole lot of typing for nothing >.<;

[The Dude]

One thing I noticed in past games that isn't present in this one is a focus on low posters. It seems that there is usually talk of post counts and how killers like to stay near the bottom. This might be indicting me a bit as I am on the lower end of the spectrum. There are a lot of strong personalities on this board, I wonder if the killers might be letting the more vocal stronger players lead everyone around while they sit back and laugh. At any rate, I want to take a look at some of the lower posters.

[The Dude]

Lisheo 143
drinksinbars 90
Lacedaemonian 81
Vengeance 73
Morgoth 72
Jump Around 70
Tapper 67
Gem Windcaster 53
dktorode 52
mocker 50
The Dude 40
alt146 36 Lynch #1
Obdigore 28
J_Slr 27 NK #1
Yellow 22
Silencer 21
baudin 20
Gavin 17



FYI

EDIT to take out non-players

This post has been edited by The Dude: 20 October 2008 - 05:56 PM

[Vengeance]

Lacedaemonian, on Oct 20 2008, 11:15 AM, said:

dktorode, on Oct 20 2008, 04:45 PM, said:

Im done for the day....try and check in with my phone.

I have been trying to do that today from my mobile. I managed to post the other day from my mobile but havent been able to since. Probably a blessing. I would say that some of my short messages were because I was posting from my mobile but this is only partially true.

I have a lot of questions to ask about today but wanted one issue clearing up: The issue with me abusing Vengence and Morgoth.

• How was I abusive toward Morgoth? This was just gentle humour that lasted for a short period of time.
  
• Some people that laughed at this later decided to find it 'uncool'. Thus began the legend of the Morgoth Abuse.
  
• I crossed the line with Vengence. It was a shit joke and the sort that would make me cringe if I heard someone else saying it. Not sure what I was thinking. It certainly was not personal and was a throw away comment, though I do not deny that it was offensive. Vengence chose to take offense. I apologised to the bloke on the boards and in private - not much else I can do at this point. In time I hope he sees that I am of higher quality than this comment suggested.
  
• Back to the game - what relevence do these comments have in this game? I am aware that every single comment could be determined to mean almost anything else but I think people are stretching their necks a little by keep bringing up this issue.
  
• I am new. I am not just new to this game but I am brand new to this community. I have a lot to learn. I cant help but feel that some of the Mafia group are being over sensitive about this issue. I assume boredom over the weekend made me an interesting victim and I know I am not out of the woods but I appear to have earned an unexpected reprieve.

Hopefully I can check some of the arguements presented today but I think I am running out of time. Can we have a vote count, please?

PS I agree with mod action against future abuses and indeed this one if it is deemed necessary.

It isn't necessarily that we are being overly sensitive it also has to do with the fact that being new your an unknown. We don't yet know how you will play if you are innocent roled, Scum roled, unroled innocent....ext. So some of the arguments have a lot to do with the unknown aspect that you and really any new player brings to the game. The Dude has managed to slide by due to his low posting while Lisheo has been overly nice and more then willing to jump on any band wagon that rumbled by him. This will set him up for votes later on in the game but for right now has let the pressure slid off of him. You came out aggressive in your posting style and that turned several people against you. It will take time for that to dissipate. Over the weekend and through out the day your posts have been helpful and have explained your position. Although I still think that your vote on Mogy is more based on a gut feeling then his play.

[Giles]

At the moment the argument that seems to make the most sense to me is Lace and Dibs's case on morgoth. I had a look through Vengeances posts and cant see much that makes people suspect him.
As i may not be in much more tonight as i have to finish homework then am goin out.
vote morgoth

[Lisheo]

Im back no DiBs you didnt scare me away, my monday evenings are always packed with lectures and stuff, same with wednesday if ye wonder why Im gone till late then too.

I actually voted before the Dude, I believe I voted after J_Slr or Gavin, then someone else voted after me, then the dude. Im fairly sure I was third or fourth, at the latest, but definatly before the Dude. This is, I think, the first time I have even mentioned him, so where's the idea that Im symping coming from?
Im curious about Gavin and Yellow, theyve stayed clear away from posting much.

[Tapper]

Finally done with my re-read from page 20 up. couple of pages of copy-page and notes, most of it not worth mentioning but a few things that tie in nicely.

First thing I noticed:
the swing from Morgoth to alt. It was a swing, no denying, but what is interesting is that it was preceded by people saying: gotta go, vote Morgoth (Baudin). Also, the swing started earlier then votes, it started with announcements of willingness to swing vote. For the Gem-Tapper link: curiously, both of us announced to swing to Morgoth if need be, though this time, with Gem saying it first. This was at a time when Morgoth had 5 votes (DiBs, Lace, alt, Yellow (the pm thing), Baudin) and no-one else more than 2 (Yellow). That particular train started with just DiBses vote at 3:43 and built up to 4 votes at 5:10. So, not as fast as the alt146 lynch, but definately a train picking up steam, and no less interesting then the actual lynch train. Hasn't been mentioned yet, however.

Then alt146 is singled out as a slick and lynchhappy person by Gavin.

DiBs has quoted the train nicely, the announcing to switch order however was:
Gavin (vote)
J_slr (vote)
Lisheo (vote)
The Dude (vote)
JA (vote)
Gem announces willingness to swing (was on no-one),
Tapper announces willingness to swing (vote was on Yellow),
DiBs announces he is tempted to swing to alt146 (vote was on Morgoth) if Morgy doesn't go through,
Venge announces willingness to switch,
DiBs declares willingness to switch ,
Tapper removes vote, votes alt,
Venge votes,
DiBs votes,
Mocker (vote),
Gem votes.

So, there are 5 votes in quick succession, then there is first compromising/scouting if there is going to be the possibility for the lynch.
The train was fired up by the first 5 to resemble a threat to the Morgoth train, which, incidentally, 2 of the supposed Morgy symps were willing to jump on when he was the best lynchtarget. Both the timing of my scouting for both lynch opportunities were around the L-5 mark. I'd say that makes more or less certain that i wasn't particularly favouring Morgoth or looking out to save him.

Were I his (Morgoth's) partner, it's my personal opinion that I'd be crazy to announce my willingness to jump on at L-5 when he could still survive if there was a diversion. If there was going to be one, my vote would then have to swing visibly, while I could far better sit and wait and see if the lynch was going to be a certainty, then hammer him or be the one to go to L-1 or so. It would have been an obvious, not particularly brilliant, but rather safe maneuver. Instead, i declare I'm willing to sell my vote to make a kill. Twice.

Thus, one could say that here, "the Tapper and Gem generated heat on alt146 to steer away from Morgoth" isn't exactly true. I'll readily admit that i was opportunistic, that I encouraged vote changing to the lynchtrain and I haven't made a secret out of my wish for a lynch, but I won't say I fired the alt train up or tried to quell or divert the Morgoth train. My actions were the exact same on both lynches. Lace was the first one to mention the steering of the train with the Gem & Tapper connection.

He spotted a connection, but failed to see how I (and Gem) did the same on Morgoth. Intention, or not?
No clue. he did say however that at first, he expected 3 scum on the alt146 train, then repeated it. The Dude then makes a connection between Lace and DiBs.DiBs then comes on and says:
There arent any real attempts at a case, now there are a few possibilities here, morgo is a killer and his symps and partner threw on alt as a scapegoat to derail the train. 2 morgo looks good for a lynch day 1 cahnces are he is good later and the killers decided to swicth it up to make him look bad. In that case gavin is the killer, but j_slr is second to vote and we know he was inno (though could have been a symp, unlikely)

Given that J_slr is framed as symp from the first train if morgo is a killer taking him out makes it look on surface that morgo is inno, as the killers are targetting the train that saved him, but i dont buy into that reasoning, its just too transparent. For that reason i am going to push my case on morgoth again from yesterday and see if a train suddenly starts somewhere else. The behaviour of the dude and morgoth still strikes me on reread as one of partnership, which would make gavin a possible killer/ symp as well.

vote Morgoth
Since I copy/paste from my notes, I don't have a postnumber nor a link.

Lace responds by voting Morgoth, naming Venge morgy's symp, followed by Venge voting Lace, I vote Lace, Gem votes Lacedaemonian and DiBs has the train he wanted
Lace then connects me and Gem as the driving force behind the alt146 train. The Dude comes on, and as first and possibly only one aside from the alt lynch saving Morgy, tries to construct something from the lynch train. This is post 784. TheDude then makes it onto the possible suspect list and is added by both DiBs and Lace as the group gunning away from Morgoth.
Then Silencer votes for me without any reasons, still no reasons given, followed by Lacedaemonian. Silencer had his vote on me twice, both on day 1 and day 2, as a sidethingie, possibly means nothing.
Lace votes Morgoth again, with 4 votes on himself.
JA votes Lace.
Lisheo votes Lace. Lynch seems to approach.
Mocker votes Lace. L-2
Mocker removes vote since Lace contributed.

meanwhile, Lace continues picking at the similarities between the alt mob and the Lace mob (I hope I showed by now that several elements are different and the pivotal players/starters in both aren't exactly the same; Lace's built-up is gradual with time on the clock, there is no whoring around with possible votes looking for a kill, either, apart from Lisheo hopping from vote to no vote with every breath he takes):
So Alt's lynch mob tried to lynch the other Morgoth voter. The only thing that ties me to Alt and our shared fates is that we both voted Morgoth.
Morgoth needs to go simply to satisfy this line of enquiry. Whether it is before or after my lynching is by the by.
Silencer applies a bit of heat on Gem and me, naming Gem symp, me killer and Lace inno.
Gavin explains his threatlist: JA, Gem, Lace and later adds Venge as target nr 1.

Then, I add my conspiracy theory, Dkt questions it, Morgoth and DiBs start their lengthy converation and Gavin presents his case on Gem. Several people, including me, admit their willingness to lynch her.
So, we have 4 trains so far: the failed Morgoth train, the succesful alt146 train, the failed Lace train, the currently building Gem train. We have J_slr dead, alt146 dead, both inno. We have serious suspicion on a duo of Gem and me, on Venge, on Morgoth.

For myself, upon re-read, I notice some copying/borrowing of arguments and names from DiBs, Lace and Silencer, revolving around Gem, Venge, Morgoth and me, and to a lesser extent, The Dude, but that's partly due to the lack of players during the weekend, I guess. Still worth remembering, though.

What does the above show? Not a whole lot, apart from a trend that promotes forgetfulness about the lynch train on Morgoth and how close Lace came to a lynch and how he kept gunning for Morgoth. I think the side conclusions that implicate Gem, me and Venge as the other 3 scum are relatively meaningless: it would mean only 1 inno was active in the weekend. What remaisn and what stands out is how tightly Gem and I have been operating when it comes to voting.

Based on that:

vote Gem.

[mocker]

bastards lol

ive just read thru pages and pages, and now im totally gona have to go back and reread loads. there are simply too many theories flying around.

dibs and tapper seem to be making the most sense

however they are directly opposed one another

reread needed

god dam!!

would gem be that obvious?

[Jump Around]

Vengeance, on Oct 20 2008, 06:14 PM, said:

Yeah and several of those were JA that we should have hit. I remember.... Yet another reason to Lynch JA on day one...p:

Vengeance, on Oct 20 2008, 06:14 PM, said:

Yeah and several of those were JA that we should have hit. I remember.... Yet another reason to Lynch JA on day one...p:

Arguments so good you have to say them twice

You didn't provide a hammer vote on Alt with minutes left, you were in the middle of the lynch train and started harassing the voters for railroading an inno before the lynch was even over. Difference.

[Giles]

The thing i see is that as J_slr insulted (albeit accidently) Gem him dieing would very obviously point at gem especially as he said this, so i think it is actually quite likely that Gem could have killed him knowing that shed be the last suspect, although if we go on down that road we get to bluffs and double bluffs and etc and it turns silly. Also her seeming to want to get lynched is also interesting but risky if she is actually a killer. I think this would be WIFOM (although im not entirely sure what that means )

[Grief]

It is day two. There are 4 hours, 10 minutes remaining.

16 dancers still getting down: Baudin,Dktorode, DrinksinBars, Gavin, Gem, Jump Around, Lacedaemonian, Lisheo, Mocker, Morgoth, Obdigore Silencer, Tapper, The Dude,Vengeance, Yellow,

9 votes to lynch, 8 to go to night.

3 Votes Morgoth: DiBs, Lacedaemonian, Baudin
2 Votes Lacedaemonian: Vengeance, Gem Windcaster
4 Votes Gem: Silencer, Yellow, Gavin, Tapper
3 votes Vengeance: Jump Around, Lisheo, Dktorode
1 vote Drinksinbars : Morgoth

Players yet to vote: Mocker, Obdigore, The Dude,

[mocker]

i honestly dont think its worth lynchin gem at the moment, if she starts playin like she actually want to live then ppl can go down that road like they wud with anybody else. if she wants to mod then she cud get modkilled.

as it is right now i think its a wasted lynch

[Giles]

exactly thats why im thinking that her saying she wants to be lynched is actually a good albeit risky way of not getting lynched

[Lisheo]

I don't think Gem is a killer. In fact, i think J_Slr's death was either a transparent attemp to put some blame on her owing to the "insulting", or else a sly way of making it seem like its her being very confident. She's an experienced player, surely the killers would want us to lynch the older players ourselves and let them take out more people like J_Slr, people who can't get linked to them easily?

[mocker]

lol it could be!!

wud be a genius ploy (if it worked!)

just seems to me that there are more ppl out there who have the potential to be more dangerous

but right now thats a looong list of ppl lol

[Lisheo]

Its pretty much everyone at this point. Im not sure about you, either, you pop in and out, but so far you haven't seemed to be manipulating trains as I expect a killer would, so you ain't on my radar yet.