[Chance]

Cause, on 31 July 2026 - 07:59 PM, said:

Honestly have no idea but doing nothing it’s my working either. If America can’t negotiate this, the. Someone else has to step in as a viable as 3rd party to broker some kind of deal. Is the straights oil just going to be turned off forever?

If not Nato, China?

At the very least the USA needs a strategy that is longer term than 1 day of bombing, or 1 day of we are talking and we will see what happens.

I expect they will eventually find a diplomatic solution that is equally distasteful to all parties and they will all say they won the great war.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Treasury yields now so high that TLT, the 20+ year treasury ETF, hit its lowest price since 2004.

TACO incoming... if Iran's willing to let him get off so easy, that is.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 31 July 2026 - 09:41 PM

[Werthead]

The Houthis have overrun most of the Red Sea coast of Yemen and seized islands in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, giving them effective fire control over every vessel passing through. They have already imposed a blockade on Saudi shipping.

They also launched a significant drone attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, causing it to shut down. This is a major geopolitical disaster from the Saudi perspective. Apparently Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud called Trump twice yesterday, the second time in something of a panic, asking for American assistance and Trump told him to deal with it himself, he has enough money and American equipment. Apparently Trump then relented and allowed US intelligence sharing for targeting in the region. But evicting the Houthis from Mokha by air power is utterly impossible, the government-loyal militias seem to be giving up and Saudi Arabia is not putting ground troops into the area (because they're a bit rubbish).

The Houthis have basically secured their entire western flank, which means they can turn up the screws on Aden. If Aden falls, the internationally-recognised legitimate government falls and Yemen becomes a substantial, Iranian-allied country with a pretty big population (at around 45 million, Yemen is more populous than Saudi Arabia by about 10 million, which is an under-appreciated fact). Oman, with a tenth of the population just next door, will be bricking it, and a swift advance up the coast into Saudi Arabia towards Jeddah and Mecca is not entirely impossible (and the Saudis will be heaving a sigh of relief the most desolate desert on Earth stops the Houthis from just going straight towards Riyadh).

It's entirely possible that this will cause the Israelis and Saudis to directly ally together and try some kind of intervention because what was looking like a major geopolitical win last year is turning into a major reversal right now.