Posted 15 April 2024 - 08:24 PM
There are multiple arguments raging in both Jerusalem and Tehran about this (probably Washington as well).
In one scenario this was Iran's maximal effort, representing Iran going all-out to strike at Israel with one powerful strike. If so, Israel and its allies rather easily defeated it. If this is all Iran can get off in one go, Israeli and US hardliners will be arguing for massive strikes on Iran targeting military command centres, AA defences, missile stockpiles and production, Shahed drone production facilities (which would help Ukraine as well, although Russia does have some native construction facilities now) and, most notably, Iran's nuclear research facilities. The idea is that in one or two days of strikes they could obliterate a considerable amount of Iran's military potential, end its nuclear programme for the foreseeable future and possibly even weaken the regime so internal protests could successfully turn into a major popular uprising (this latter is probably over-optimistic, and of course could also swing the population behind the government).
However, I get the impression this is widely regarded as optimistic in more cool-headed analyses. They have been citing that Iran could have launched twice as many drones and maybe half again as many ballistic missiles in one go, and then kept up a sustained bombardment over many hours. Even if Israel and its allies had intercepted and destroyed all the incoming weapons, at least a few would have gotten through and Israel would have expended considerable ammunition reserves to do so. In addition, Iran did not order its proxy in Lebanon to join the attack, as Hezbollah have significant medium-to-short range missiles and could have launched attacks across the order that would have been numerous enough to challenge Israel's short-range defences.
The big surprise for Iran seems to have been both the effectiveness of Israel's anti-ballistic missile forces and also how crappily theirs performed: current US analysis indicates a ~40% failure rate with ballistic missiles exploding in mid-air, failing to launch, blowing up on the launch pad or veering off course somewhere over Iraq, Syria or Jordan. Several of the missiles that penetrated Israel's defences were apparently allowed to do so after dynamic modelling confirmed they would not hit a populated area (something Ukraine has also successful done against Russia, avoiding wasting AA fire on missiles that aren't actually going anywhere important). Anti-ballistic missiles fired from the USS Ardleigh Burke and an Israeli frigate in Eilat Bay intercepted and destroyed Iranian and Houthi missiles well outside of the danger zone, and one Arrow-3 missile went extra-atmospheric to destroy an incoming missile whilst it was technically in space.
The Israeli hardliners are absolutely arguing for a massive retaliatory strike that hits Iran incredibly hard. Their allies are talking them down. Netanyahu in particular has been put in the seat of having to thank Jordan, the US, the UK and France for their support in this endeavour (an Arab country like Jordan ordering jets into the sky to shoot missiles down fired against Israel is no small thing). There are also unconfirmed reports that Saudi Arabia provided intelligence directly or allowed US and UK military personnel based in Saudi (ostensibly for anti-Houthi operations) to use their facilities to track and engage incoming fire. Left unspoken is the idea that if Israel continues to escalate both in Gaza and the wider region, then maybe its allies will not be so quick to help it next time (as tough a sell as that would be, especially in the US, to put Israeli civilians in danger).
Israel is also riding something of a minor PR bump with Arab sentiments about the attack mixed, in particular the shots of missiles exploding directly above the Al-Aqsa mosque and the Dome of the Rock, apparently in a vague effort to hit the nearby Knesset building (one reason why Hamas and Hezbollah do not fire missiles at Jerusalem, it's simply far too hard to avoid hitting Islamic holy sites or Palestinian civilians). That goes away if Israel starts pummelling Iran.
I think Biden's advice here is germane: Israel killed 13 senior Iranian commanders, including two senior Republican Guard generals, in their attack. In Iran's response, the sole injury was to a Muslim girl, and there were no fatalities. As Biden said, "Take the win."
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