[amphibian]

I think it was Mezla a while back who mentioned Ebola vaccines - there's none approved for the market yet so it's likely another type that's going to get production slowed down to produce something related to COVID-19.

[Tiste Simeon]

So I saw something on Facebook that made me pause because on the surface it seemed fine but the more I thought about it the more it just seemed wrong.

The gist of it was basically "drink water especially if you have a dry throat because the water will wash the virus into your stomach and the acid will kill it."

I'm not being stupid am I? That's completely wrong, yes?

[Mezla PigDog]

Tiste Simeon, on 16 March 2020 - 03:41 PM, said:

So I saw something on Facebook that made me pause because on the surface it seemed fine but the more I thought about it the more it just seemed wrong.

The gist of it was basically "drink water especially if you have a dry throat because the water will wash the virus into your stomach and the acid will kill it."

I'm not being stupid am I? That's completely wrong, yes?

The virus will be in many other parts of the airways that don't come into contact with food and drink as it goes by on it's way down the oesophagus. So even if it does rinse shedding virus down from the back of your throat it's impossible to have a statistically relevant effect.

Can't get a darned online delivery slot for 3 weeks at Sainsburys. I haven't done a proper shop in person for about 3 years. But I guess we fit and healthy "youngsters" really should be the ones taking the trip to shops so the vulnerable can have the deliveries and stay home. Could do with a refund on my annual delivery pass though!

And my cold has cleared up. Either a totally lame attempt by the virus to sully my impeccably healthy* body or it was just a cold.

*read gin soaked.

[Aptorian]

Seeing as the virus concentrates in you airwaves, especially your nostrils, drinking water isn't going to do much.

Now if you could get them inhale some scalding hot boiling bleach that might do it. Maybe use one of those netty pots and pour it straight up into their sinuses.

Really, there's no cure or truck to this. If you're sick you're sick, the body isn't going to stop producing more viruses because you drink water or submerge yourself in alcohol.

[King Lear]

That's not how viruses work, I'm pretty sure D:

But on the other hand, most people could do with drinking a bit more water so it's not the worst bad advice.

Unless you're my grandad who was told to drink plenty of water before an operation and he listened and ended up being hospitalised with hyponatremia.

[Malankazooie]

It works, but they forgot one tiny detail. You're supposed to drink bleach to wash the virus down into your stomach.

[Mezla PigDog]

Macros, on 16 March 2020 - 08:31 AM, said:

Pubs are shutting their doors in Ireland.

Covid19 just got real

You think you have it bad. My cleaner cancelled on me!

[King Lear]

Mezla PigDog, on 16 March 2020 - 04:22 PM, said:

Macros, on 16 March 2020 - 08:31 AM, said:

Pubs are shutting their doors in Ireland.

Covid19 just got real

You think you have it bad. My cleaner cancelled on me!

It's a tough life. But hey, with all the quarantining going on, plenty of time for cleaning!

[QuickTidal]

Canadian borders closing. Only CDN's (And UC citizens....WHY?!) will be able to get back in, and they will need to follow instructions, or stay abroad and be supported there.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 16 March 2020 - 06:09 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Beaver Killia, on 16 March 2020 - 06:35 PM, said:

Idris Elba test positive.

This will turn into an insanely long thread if we start doing this likely yet I don't think we will be able to help ourselves with info like that.

'Al Roker and Craig Melvin Pulled Off Air as Coronavirus Hits the 'Today' Show
A staffer for the third hour of the morning show has tested positive for the coronavirus leaving NBC to try and trace their contacts with other members of the team at 30 Rock.'

https://www.thedaily...sitive?ref=home

'"Stranger Things," "Grey's Anatomy," "Morning Show" and "Chicago" franchise are among the growing number of series halted as COVID-19 spreads

[...] All Amazon original series, including “Lord of the Rings,” “Carnival Row” and “Wheel of Time”'

https://www.thewrap....d-of-the-rings/

If production of new tv and movies halts, it might be a good time to catch up the surplus of high quality series and films released in the last few years....

I imagine there will be a transition to more remote production work (and animation...).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 March 2020 - 06:41 PM

[Gorefest]

amphibian, on 16 March 2020 - 01:17 PM, said:

Boris Johnson's understanding of this is either so ridiculously low or evil. There's a confirmed case of reinfection in Japan - so people can get this multiple times.

Herd immunity isn't a thing with this one. Stay home. Picking up the pieces of a broken life is better than killing someone or dying yourself.

I am afraid I dont agree with you. The case in Japan is so far an outlier. In any disease there is always a chance that someone wont build up any immunity, but so far there is absolutely no evidence that the Japan case is the norm. Johnson is going completely on information from internationally leading immunologists and epidemiologists, so saying that his understanding is poor is nonsense. There are different scenarios one can take to deal with a global epidemic. Italy, Spain, China etc choose full lockdown; the UK and the netherlands and others go for partial lockdown with 'herd immunity'. Time will tell which approach proves most effective. But saying it is due to lack of understanding is totally unfounded and rather unhelpful in the wider discussion.

[QuickTidal]

The people developing the vaccines say 18 months at the earliest.

And let's remember that stuff like SARS and MERS never ended up with actual viable vaccines.

I think my govt is not doing enough in the tight window of time, and I feel like it's about to get hella worse on this continent. I hope I'm wrong though.

[Aptorian]

Just saw a projection that Denmark will likely see peak infection numbers in late April. That's more than a month away. I'm sorta aghast by this.

Surely the government can't keep everything closed or locked down for 30-60 days. And then repeat in the fall and next year. Something has to give.

[amphibian]

Gorefest, on 16 March 2020 - 07:01 PM, said:

amphibian, on 16 March 2020 - 01:17 PM, said:

Boris Johnson's understanding of this is either so ridiculously low or evil. There's a confirmed case of reinfection in Japan - so people can get this multiple times.

Herd immunity isn't a thing with this one. Stay home. Picking up the pieces of a broken life is better than killing someone or dying yourself.

I am afraid I dont agree with you. The case in Japan is so far an outlier. In any disease there is always a chance that someone wont build up any immunity, but so far there is absolutely no evidence that the Japan case is the norm. Johnson is going completely on information from internationally leading immunologists and epidemiologists, so saying that his understanding is poor is nonsense. There are different scenarios one can take to deal with a global epidemic. Italy, Spain, China etc choose full lockdown; the UK and the netherlands and others go for partial lockdown with 'herd immunity'. Time will tell which approach proves most effective. But saying it is due to lack of understanding is totally unfounded and rather unhelpful in the wider discussion.

https://www.theguard...avirus-covid-19

When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.

Let me take the arguments on their merits. The stated aim has been to achieve “herd immunity” in order to manage the outbreak and prevent a catastrophic “second wave” next winter – even if Matt Hancock has tried to put that particular genie back in the bottle this weekend. A large proportion of the population is at lower risk of developing severe disease: roughly speaking anyone up to the age of 40. So the reasoning goes that even though in a perfect world we’d not want anyone to take the risk of infection, generating immunity in younger people is a way of protecting the population as a whole.


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1:05
WHO director general: Europe is now at centre of coronavirus pandemic – video
We talk about vaccines generating herd immunity, so why is this different? Because this is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic that will make a very large number of people sick, and some of them will die. Even though the mortality rate is likely quite low, a small fraction of a very large number is still a large number. And the mortality rate will climb when the NHS is overwhelmed. This would be expected to happen, even if we make the generous assumption that the government were entirely successful in restricting the virus to the low-risk population, at the peak of the outbreak the numbers requiring critical care would be greater than the number of beds available. This is made worse by the fact that people who are badly ill tend to remain so for a long time, which increases the burden.

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And of course you can’t restrict it to this age group. Think of all the people aged between 20 and 40 who work in healthcare, or old people’s homes. You don’t need many introductions into settings like these for what we might coyly call “severe outcomes”. In Washington State, nearly all the deaths reported so far have been associated with nursing homes. Is everyone in a high-risk group supposed to withdraw themselves from society for six months until they can emerge once the (so far entirely imaginary) second wave has been averted?


About that second wave: let me be clear. Second waves are real things, and we have seen them in flu pandemics. This is not a flu pandemic. Flu rules do not apply. There might well be a second wave, I honestly don’t know. But vulnerable people should not be exposed to a virus right now in the service of a hypothetical future.

Keeping people safe means self-isolation if you develop symptoms, but the official advice here is also misleading. While it is of paramount importance that sick people stay at home to avoid infecting others, it is increasingly clear that transmission can occur before symptoms develop. We know this is true from modelling and observational studies. I have seen it happen myself. We do not know how often it occurs or how important it is in the epidemiology, but it definitely does happen.

However, arguments about the case fatality rate, the transmission parameters and presymptomatic transmission all miss the point. This virus is capable of shutting down countries. You should not want to be the next after Wuhan, Iran, Italy or Spain. In those places, the healthcare systems have broken down. In Italy, the choices of whom to save and whom to allow to die are real. You should instead look to the example of South Korea, which, through a combination of intense surveillance and social distancing, appears to have gained some semblance of control over the virus. We can learn from South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, all of which have so far done a good job mitigating the worst outcomes despite having reported cases early in the pandemic, and in the case of South Korea, suffering a substantial outbreak.

The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago.

Deciding whether to close schools is hard; they do so much more than just education. But this is a pandemic, and so you should expect they will be shut sooner or later. In Hong Kong, they have been shut for weeks. If you hear any talking head on TV explain that kids don’t get sick, remember that doesn’t mean kids cannot be infected and transmit. It’s probably a good idea to hold off on visits to Nana and Grandpa.

The most fundamental function of a government is to keep its people safe. It is from this that it derives its authority, the confidence of the people and its legitimacy. Nobody should be under the illusion that this is something that can be dodged through somehow manipulating a virus that we are only beginning to understand. This will not pass you by; this is not a tornado, it is a hurricane.

Don’t panic, but do prepare. If your government won’t help you, do it yourself.

This post has been edited by amphibian: 16 March 2020 - 07:23 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

People don't develop lasting immunity to the other coronaviruses that have become endemic seasonal illnesses (folded into the 'common cold'). There's no good reason to think that would happen with this one (particularly, immunity that would last through next winter). While antibodies become easier to re-develop, people still get the seasonal coronaviruses a year later, so low-risk populations would still be carriers.

There was a study on macaques which found that they couldn't be re-infected 5 days later. Doesn't say much about a year later though (and they're not human... there are many other species these viruses don't even affect).

But thankfully:

'The UK backs away from "herd immunity" coronavirus proposal amid blowback

[...] Whitty, the UK's chief medical officer for England, said Thursday that holding off on recommending the sort of social distancing other countries have encouraged was a strategic decision, arguing that imposing it "too early" would cause people to become exhausted and stop participating in it.

But Johnson has since said that he will ban large gatherings in the coming week, in the face of pushback and a rising number of confirmed infections.

[...] reality led to more than 200 scientists and medical professionals pushing back against the herd immunity strategy in an open letter Saturday. These experts argued that herd immunity does not "seem a viable option" because it could overwhelm the UK's National Health Service with very sick patients. Instead, they called for strict social distancing measures of a more serious variety than the government has currently recommended.'

https://www.vox.com/...allance-johnson

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 March 2020 - 07:34 PM

[Cause]

amphibian, on 16 March 2020 - 01:17 PM, said:

Boris Johnson's understanding of this is either so ridiculously low or evil. There's a confirmed case of reinfection in Japan - so people can get this multiple times.

Herd immunity isn't a thing with this one. Stay home. Picking up the pieces of a broken life is better than killing someone or dying yourself.

Too early to take this seriously. Could be real and the people are outliers. Could also be a false positive. False positives, no matter how rare, will become more and more prevalent as the number of tests done increased. Could also be lab error, fatigue can set in and with PCR the possibility for cross contamination is huge. Could be that decalring them healthy was a false negative. Could be their first diagnosis was the false positive and they didnt have coronovirus as the first disease. If after 100 000 cases we have two cases of reinfection I would hold off panicking for now. Wait for the real scientific data. I promise you people are looking into this hard.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 16 March 2020 - 07:38 PM, said:

amphibian, on 16 March 2020 - 01:17 PM, said:

Boris Johnson's understanding of this is either so ridiculously low or evil. There's a confirmed case of reinfection in Japan - so people can get this multiple times.

Herd immunity isn't a thing with this one. Stay home. Picking up the pieces of a broken life is better than killing someone or dying yourself.

Too early to take this seriously. Could be real and the people are outliers. Could also be a false positive. False positives, no matter how rare, will become more and more prevalent as the number of tests done increased. Could also be lab error, fatigue can set in and with PCR the possibility for cross contamination is huge. Could be that decalring them healthy was a false negative. Could be their first diagnosis was the false positive and they didnt have coronovirus as the first disease. If after 100 000 cases we have two cases of reinfection I would hold off panicking for now. Wait for the real scientific data. I promise you people are looking into this hard.

There are more than two cases, but they weren't actually re-tested before being discharged.

'In China’s Guangdong province, health officials said 14 percent of people who recovered in the province who were later retested were positive.

[...] A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan tested positive for coronavirus for the second time after developing a sore throat and chest pain. She first tested positive in late January and was discharged from the hospital in early February after showing signs of recovery.

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant with minimal symptoms,” Philip Tierno Jr., professor of microbiology and pathology at New York University, told Reuters last month.

“And then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” he said.

Scientists agree reinfection is an unlikely explanation for patients who test positive a second time, according to the Los Angeles Times, and note the possibility that testing errors, and releasing patients from hospitals too prematurely, are more likely the reason for reports of patients who retest positive'

https://thehill.com/...ronavirus-twice

[QuickTidal]

Those are a lot of extra variables to toss around to try to say Someone didn’t get reinfected with this.

Occam’s razor and all that.

[amphibian]

There's a growing issue with governments and agencies recommending not gathering in groups of larger than 50 etc - it's not a ban and insurance won't pay for costs of cancellation and so on if the event can technically happen.

Tons of events, conventions, artists, bands, and weddings are going to bankrupt the people involved if this isn't shifted to a ban that renders the event impossible to have.

My coworker is eating the costs of postponing her wedding that was going to happen in May because she has family that is especially vulnerable to this. It's painful emotionally and financially and she's extremely torn up about it.

[Tiste Simeon]

Isle of Man TT cancelled which will make the first couple of weeks of my new job a little bit easier haha