[Tapper]

Khellendros, on 29 October 2019 - 04:54 PM, said:

I think that the best remainers can hope for is that the election produced another hung parliament. More likely we’ll see a Conservative victory. I hope that Labour can pull off the same trick of impressing with their manifesto as in 2017 and build upon it - but I think it very unlikely. Ultimately this will probably be a proxy referendum, and unfortunately the remain vote is split.

I am from the EU. This shouldn't be bothering me as much as it does, because the EU27 seem to get what they see as the best way to solve this from seen from our side of the fence, but...
For more than two two years I woke up every day and read yet another article how the Tories manipulate the referendum and its result for internal gains - despite Brexit being so big it manages to dominate the news every. single. day. You would think at some point Government and Parliament would stop fucking around, get their shit together and act like this is as serious as it is.

But... When I now read that Corbyn's Brexit stance (at the least, as it was presented at the Party conference mid-October, iirc) is to request another extension to renegotiate the Brexit document yet again (but this time better), all I hear are the ERG talking points from january 2019.

Unless I missed something, even if Labour wins, even if the EU27 OK yet another extension to change the exit-paper, and even if that results in a different document, it is going to be tied to yet another referendum. Which will reopen all the wounds yet again. Democracy works because the people elect someone they trust to make the right decision, not to have choices thrown back at us, dammit.

Not to mention that I have not heard Corbyn mention what will happen if the people reject his deal in the referndum: hard Brexit?
Probably not. More likely, yet another election and another year wasted, and another Brexit agreement down the toilet. To me, Corbyn may sound like 2018-early 2019 Johnson, but the promise of this second referendum seems to be a carbon copy of David Cameron's reasoning to allow the referendum in the first place: to keep half of his party on board.

[Gorefest]

It's because Corbyn is a soft-boiled egg and just about the worst person to have at the helm of Labour over these past 4 years or so, especially because he himself is a Leaver at heart in a party that under New Labour was predominantly pro-EU. Hence there is no real opposition, it is just disagreement on how to phrase things to make your party look the lesser of the idiotic kindergarten groups running around Westminster.

The irony of all of this is that it was the Tories who originally got the UK to join the EU against the then Labour party desires (Benn). So now that it is the Tories that are trying to pull the UK out, the 'old' Labour adepts don't know how to deal with this mental dichotomy. Their labour grass roots scream that that actually is what they wanted all along, but their policy over the past 30-40 years (and especially during Tony Blair's New Labour period) has been mostly pro-EU. So they are in an internal meltdown and pretty much useless. Which is reflected in their election campaign mostly trying to focus on domestic, non-Brexit issues, so they won't have to take a clear stand on whether they want to be in or out.

[Gorefest]

To follow up on myself, just read in the Guardian:

"Jeremy Corbyn has repeated his insistence that his party will not take sides between leave and remain ahead of the election, as he said Labour’s Brexit policy “really isn’t complicated”."


Basically, he is gunning for another referendum, but now with the 'clearer' options: leave with a deal, or remain. Again without explaining what such a deal should look like and again without committing himself to be in favour of either option. And still people wonder why Labour has been totally incapable of capitalising on three consecutive worst Tory governments in living memory. Gormless.

[Tapper]

Gorefest, on 05 November 2019 - 03:12 PM, said:

It's because Corbyn is a soft-boiled egg and just about the worst person to have at the helm of Labour over these past 4 years or so, especially because he himself is a Leaver at heart in a party that under New Labour was predominantly pro-EU. Hence there is no real opposition, it is just disagreement on how to phrase things to make your party look the lesser of the idiotic kindergarten groups running around Westminster.

The irony of all of this is that it was the Tories who originally got the UK to join the EU against the then Labour party desires (Benn). So now that it is the Tories that are trying to pull the UK out, the 'old' Labour adepts don't know how to deal with this mental dichotomy. Their labour grass roots scream that that actually is what they wanted all along, but their policy over the past 30-40 years (and especially during Tony Blair's New Labour period) has been mostly pro-EU. So they are in an internal meltdown and pretty much useless. Which is reflected in their election campaign mostly trying to focus on domestic, non-Brexit issues, so they won't have to take a clear stand on whether they want to be in or out.

Yeah, but that is exactly where Cameron came from. A large part of his cabinet and a significant amount of backbenchers were pro-EU, but the tabloid reading voters were Leave. The Tories muddled their messaging, with Leave having the easiest message to sell. Since losing the referendum the Remainers, barring the Grieve amendments, have all but disappeared from the public eye.
The exact same thing is going to happen when Corbyn (or whomever leads Labour) has to sell their deal in a referendum. Half the party will drag their feet because the principle of Leave goes against their nature, the other half thinks the only mitigating factor in the document itself is that it is their party leader negotiated it. No-one (but Corbyn himself) is going to sell it as a victory that was worth making him PM for.
Corbyn must know that promising a referendum is landing him between a rock and a hard place. Why do it? He could claim that an election win is enough mandate to go through on.

[Tapper]

Gorefest, on 05 November 2019 - 03:41 PM, said:

To follow up on myself, just read in the Guardian:

"Jeremy Corbyn has repeated his insistence that his party will not take sides between leave and remain ahead of the election, as he said Labour’s Brexit policy “really isn’t complicated”."


Basically, he is gunning for another referendum, but now with the 'clearer' options: leave with a deal, or remain. Again without explaining what such a deal should look like and again without committing himself to be in favour of either option. And still people wonder why Labour has been totally incapable of capitalising on three consecutive worst Tory governments in living memory. Gormless.

Exactly my point

[Grief]

I think people somewhat overestimate Corbyn's remit over Labour party policy. Promising a referendum is ultimately an easier middle ground position. Especially in a time where (imo justified) mistrust of political institutions has made political mandates shakier and led to an increasing pressure to be 'close to the people'. If an election was an uncontroversial mandate to shake up your constitution however you like then Scotland would've been independent years ago.

[Brujah]

If I was English, I'd lie and say I was from Scotland.

[Brujah]

As far as the topic goes however, I'd hope to remain part of the EU. I wish I had time to read this thread and I wouldn't have to wonder about the, but I can't see why anyone would want to NOT be part of the EU.

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

Maark Abbott, on 05 November 2019 - 08:20 AM, said:

It's always worth reminding folk that Lib Dems vote with Tories, are in a not dismissible part made up of former, very right wing Tories and caused a lot of the domestic factors that caused the entire Brexit mess in the first place with the Tories.

So if you took my post as just Tory bashing, it wasn't. It was actually aimed at the Lib Dems, which is quite evident on a base read. Their 'tactical voting' sites are only really going to keep some of them on the gravy train where they can keep voting through cuts to services, funding, rights, etc (if people vote for them, that is)

So your suggestion is what?

I agree, any time Mez replies with the voting realities of the area she lives in you post virtually the same rant. Safe seats are a thing and so tactical voting becomes a consideration for people. What are you suggesting people do instead?

[Khellendros]

Tapper, on 05 November 2019 - 01:04 PM, said:

Khellendros, on 29 October 2019 - 04:54 PM, said:

I think that the best remainers can hope for is that the election produced another hung parliament. More likely we’ll see a Conservative victory. I hope that Labour can pull off the same trick of impressing with their manifesto as in 2017 and build upon it - but I think it very unlikely. Ultimately this will probably be a proxy referendum, and unfortunately the remain vote is split.

I am from the EU. This shouldn't be bothering me as much as it does, because the EU27 seem to get what they see as the best way to solve this from seen from our side of the fence, but...
For more than two two years I woke up every day and read yet another article how the Tories manipulate the referendum and its result for internal gains - despite Brexit being so big it manages to dominate the news every. single. day. You would think at some point Government and Parliament would stop fucking around, get their shit together and act like this is as serious as it is.

But... When I now read that Corbyn's Brexit stance (at the least, as it was presented at the Party conference mid-October, iirc) is to request another extension to renegotiate the Brexit document yet again (but this time better), all I hear are the ERG talking points from january 2019.

Unless I missed something, even if Labour wins, even if the EU27 OK yet another extension to change the exit-paper, and even if that results in a different document, it is going to be tied to yet another referendum. Which will reopen all the wounds yet again. Democracy works because the people elect someone they trust to make the right decision, not to have choices thrown back at us, dammit.

Not to mention that I have not heard Corbyn mention what will happen if the people reject his deal in the referndum: hard Brexit?
Probably not. More likely, yet another election and another year wasted, and another Brexit agreement down the toilet. To me, Corbyn may sound like 2018-early 2019 Johnson, but the promise of this second referendum seems to be a carbon copy of David Cameron's reasoning to allow the referendum in the first place: to keep half of his party on board.

I don’t fundamentally disagree with any point you make.

But while I may have said that this election will be a proxy referendum, that does not mean it is an actual referendum. We’ve all been drowned in Brexit news the past few years, but underneath that the Conservatives have passed and instituted numerous policies on crime and justice, education, welfare, environmental laws (or the stripping of them), and immigration which have been highly damaging - but have got far less attention than they deserve because of Brexit.

Labour have vowed to change or reverse many of these policies, and that is why I would support them in an election no matter their wishy-washiness on Brexit - because it’s an election on a party’s entire manifesto, not a single issue, no matter how dominating that issue is.

As for why Corbyn et al are so muddled on Brexit: well, you say that a second referendum will just stick him between a rock and a hard place - this is wrong, because he’s already in that position. Labour’s traditional voters are much more evenly split between remain and leave. Coming out steadfastly for one over the other risks losing the election before it even takes place. The Conservative voters, on the other hand, were much more leave-leaning, so it was easier for that party to pivot to a firm position without risking losing too many voters. I’m not defending the Labour position, but I can understand it.

You say that Parliament has been dicking around rather than getting Brexit done. I would say that this is the most passionate and hard-working I have ever seen politicians as a collective in this country. If the Parliament should represent the country, then this division certainly reflects that. But many of these politicians are not standing again this election, for many because of the abuse and threats they and their families have received. I fear that there’s now a risk that the new intake will be even more polarising and reluctant to compromise on any issue, not just Brexit.

The rock and the hard place met and smooched three years ago. There’s no good way out of this, and I assume that eventually it will end in a no-deal Brexit, unless the Conservatives suffer a completely unpredicted total defeat.

[Mezla PigDog]

The Green Party have stood aside in my constituency as part of the Lib Dem, Green, Plaid Cymru Remain Alliance. This turns the 3 horse race for my vote into a 2 horse race. I'm not sure how I feel about it. Labour or Lib Dem it is then.....

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

Labour in my area - I live in Ed Balls' old seat but it's been Tory since him and likely will be again. Can but try!

[Macros]

Dinner last night was depressing.
Trying to explain to my folks and their friends why the Tories were a shower of cunts.
What I got in reply was 'labour will bankrupt the country'

I mean

What?

[Traveller]

Macros, on 09 November 2019 - 08:30 AM, said:

Dinner last night was depressing.
Trying to explain to my folks and their friends why the Tories were a shower of cunts.
What I got in reply was 'labour will bankrupt the country'

I mean

What?

It says so in the paper, it must be true.

[Gorefest]

Well, with Corbyn in charge it probably will be true. But that still isnt a reason to vote Tory. There are other parties.

[Mezla PigDog]

Macros, on 09 November 2019 - 08:30 AM, said:

Dinner last night was depressing.
Trying to explain to my folks and their friends why the Tories were a shower of cunts.
What I got in reply was 'labour will bankrupt the country'

I mean

What?

It is bizarre if anyone can truly believe that the Tories are fiscally responsible and the best party for business after the last 3 and a half years. But as Traveller says, if Rupert Murdoch thinks it's true then it becomes true. It is also a simple economic message that people can understand because they grasp the concept of not spending more than you earn. What they have no concept of is the vast sums of money involved in tax dodging by large corporations and wealthy individuals - fix that and you have paid for the NHS.

[Khellendros]

Brexit Party will not run candidates in any of the Tories’ current 317 seats. It is possible that this will mean those past Labour voters who were thinking of voting Brexit Party this time round will now instead stick with Labour. But more likely it shores up the leave vote and makes a significant Conservative majority a realistic possibility.

This post has been edited by Khellendros: 11 November 2019 - 12:37 PM

[Gorefest]

Well, I think that after the last election it was shown that UKIP had taken far more voters from Labour than from the Tories. So the BP not standing should be more beneficial to Labour than to the Tories (assuming UKIP is not a significant factor anymore).

[Mezla PigDog]

I watched the leaders debate and the later one interviewing the leaders of the smaller parties. Urgh in general I think but it frustrates me when Corbyn is roundly mocked and constantly held up as a bad leader when I think his policies are basic common sense. When the audience member derided him on the 4 day week - isn't that soundly researched policy considering the level of automation and reduced consumption we are going to need in the future? Wouldn't people prefer to work 4 days a week for fair remuneration? Man people are dumb. We might as well go up in smoke now and get it done.

[Mezla PigDog]

Did anyone watch the Andrew Neil Leader Interview with Corbyn last night? Proper car crash. It was so bad I had my mouth open for the first bits on Antisemitism and Brexit. Andrew Neil is awful but Corbyn left him so many open goals. I hope he gives Johnson the same treatment as that should go terribly as well except Johnson will bluster through by making the odd humourous dig back.