[Coco with marshmallows]

regarding the SNP potentially losing 20 odd seats - i wouldnt' be surprised.

SNP average about 40-50% of the vote (going by scottish parliament and local elections) - 2015 was an aberration on the back of the 2014 Indy ref - there were still thousands of highly motivated people runnning around campaigning, knocking on doors, meeting people at train stations, etc.

This time nothing like that level of interaction.

SNP dropping to 30 something seats out of 58 would be more reflective on how Scotland actually is.

The fact that the conservatives have primarily pushed themselves as being staunchly anti-indy will see them make a few gains up here i expect.

(seriously though. the majority of the other parties leaflets up here were based on "NO to Indy Ref 2", not about what they could do for the country/people..... it was damn depressing)

[WinterPhoenix]

Anyone up watching the election coverage? Some of the London results like the 10% swing in Battersea to Labour are bigger numbers than I was expecting, if projections hold then it looks as though Corbyn has done far better than all his critics ever gave him a hope of doing, looks like the younger generation have actually voted after feeling bitter disappointment in 2015 and 2016 and realising that they actually need to vote. I wonder how long it'll be before all of Corbyn's critics rush to deny him any credit by claiming it's entirely a vote against May as opposed to a vote for him :/

Just saw Nick Clegg lose his Sheffield seat to Labour as well, might have been better for the bloke to have lost in 2015 tbh, limping on for two years was probably just rubbing salt in the wounds.

Revised forecast based on the exit polls and current results suggests Cons with 322, putting them four of a majority, meaning a working majority with the DUP basically. But it's still a spectacular loss for May if it's correct, the knives will be out in the Tory party, Boris the next PM?

[Khellendros]

It's looking like an outstanding result for Labour compared to what was predicted and demonstrates that pollsters and newspaper opinion writers still largely don't know shit. And that things work out better if I remain pessimistic

One can't help but wonder what more might have been achieved had the PLP not thrown their toys out of the pram and tried to oust Corbyn.

[Khellendros]

What's been most unlike what was predicted is where the UKIP vote has gone. Correctly predicted that it would collapse, but incorrectly predicted that the vast majority of Ukippers would switch to the Tories. It's more like 50/50 split between Lab and Cons, and that's really helped Lab out in England.

[WinterPhoenix]

Yeah it definitely gets you thinking about how much more Corbyn could have achieved had the parliamentary Labour party not actively worked against him for such a long time, he's proven he is a fantastic campaigner and this is looking like a very good result for them. Just waiting to see what kind of majority if any the Tories will have now, it looks like no matter what there'll be a working majority with the DUP though.

I'm still shocked that Labour won in Canterbury, seriously that seat has been Tory since WW1! University town I guess, Labour have done very well in Uni towns, no surprise considering the promise to abolish university fees from this September.

[EmperorMagus]

WinterPhoenix, on 09 June 2017 - 03:44 AM, said:

Yeah it definitely gets you thinking about how much more Corbyn could have achieved had the parliamentary Labour party not actively worked against him for such a long time, he's proven he is a fantastic campaigner and this is looking like a very good result for them. Just waiting to see what kind of majority if any the Tories will have now, it looks like no matter what there'll be a working majority with the DUP though.

I'm still shocked that Labour won in Canterbury, seriously that seat has been Tory since WW1! University town I guess, Labour have done very well in Uni towns, no surprise considering the promise to abolish university fees from this September.

If the Tories end up with 318 and the DUP end up with 10, the conservatives will have a majority of two seats in the parliament. One seat after a speaker is chosen.

That's not a ruling majority, it means the PM and every cabinet minister will have to be present on every single confidence worthy vote of the house; which is nigh impossible for people who have to actually rule. Not to mention the sicknesses, family emergencies, etc.

Even if May isn't ousted and forms a government, I'd be surprised if she remains prime minister until 2019.

I'm so happy Jeremy Corbyn has done so well. It gives me hope his success will encourage more politicians like him to come forward.

[WinterPhoenix]

EmperorMagus, on 09 June 2017 - 03:53 AM, said:

WinterPhoenix, on 09 June 2017 - 03:44 AM, said:

Yeah it definitely gets you thinking about how much more Corbyn could have achieved had the parliamentary Labour party not actively worked against him for such a long time, he's proven he is a fantastic campaigner and this is looking like a very good result for them. Just waiting to see what kind of majority if any the Tories will have now, it looks like no matter what there'll be a working majority with the DUP though.

I'm still shocked that Labour won in Canterbury, seriously that seat has been Tory since WW1! University town I guess, Labour have done very well in Uni towns, no surprise considering the promise to abolish university fees from this September.

If the Tories end up with 318 and the DUP end up with 10, the conservatives will have a majority of two seats in the parliament. One seat after a speaker is chosen.

That's not a ruling majority, it means the PM and every cabinet minister will have to be present on every single confidence worthy vote of the house; which is nigh impossible for people who have to actually rule. Not to mention the sicknesses, family emergencies, etc.

Even if May isn't ousted and forms a government, I'd be surprised if she remains prime minister until 2019.

I'm so happy Jeremy Corbyn has done so well. It gives me hope his success will encourage more politicians like him to come forward.

Yeah, plus the one area where the Tories have done better than expected is in Scotland, and the Scottish Tory party will not be able to vote on everything in Westminster, it really isn't a strong position for the Tories going forward and even weaker for May. The Tory backbenchers will be sharpening their knives and forming sides already, Boris Jonson Vs David Davis for the tory party leader is my guess sometime soon, she won't make it to 2019 no way in hell. Though of course I guess you can't rule out Amber Rudd seeing as she managed to hold onto Hastings, and who knows what happens to Ruth Davidson now after basically being the Tory MVP for this election.

EDIT: But yeah so happy Corbyn has done so well, he damn well deserves it.

This post has been edited by WinterPhoenix: 09 June 2017 - 04:36 AM

[Tsundoku]

Been following this all day at work.

A hell of a lot more interesting than what I was ostensibly getting paid for.

[Imperial Historian]

EmperorMagus, on 09 June 2017 - 03:53 AM, said:

WinterPhoenix, on 09 June 2017 - 03:44 AM, said:

Yeah it definitely gets you thinking about how much more Corbyn could have achieved had the parliamentary Labour party not actively worked against him for such a long time, he's proven he is a fantastic campaigner and this is looking like a very good result for them. Just waiting to see what kind of majority if any the Tories will have now, it looks like no matter what there'll be a working majority with the DUP though.

I'm still shocked that Labour won in Canterbury, seriously that seat has been Tory since WW1! University town I guess, Labour have done very well in Uni towns, no surprise considering the promise to abolish university fees from this September.

If the Tories end up with 318 and the DUP end up with 10, the conservatives will have a majority of two seats in the parliament. One seat after a speaker is chosen.

That's not a ruling majority, it means the PM and every cabinet minister will have to be present on every single confidence worthy vote of the house; which is nigh impossible for people who have to actually rule. Not to mention the sicknesses, family emergencies, etc.

Even if May isn't ousted and forms a government, I'd be surprised if she remains prime minister until 2019.

I'm so happy Jeremy Corbyn has done so well. It gives me hope his success will encourage more politicians like him to come forward.

Slightly more complicated than that as sinn fein don't actually sit at parliament who have a few seats which gives a cushion. But yes it's going to be difficult to govern.

That said miles better result than I was expecting really interesting to see what happens. It's going to be intriguing to see what this means for brexit. I'm hoping it at least means that the negotiating team includes members from other parties. It's nonsensical that one party is doing all the negotiations for such a crucial thing. The results of brexit require broad political consensus.

[Mezla PigDog]

Wowoweewah. Er now what? I quite like the idea of minority government and support on a vote by vote basis as it will reduce tribalism and create more meaningful politics. I'm not sure British politics is ready for it. The Tories would rip themselves apart under it.

Nick Clegg should get a new job in Brussels on the other side of the Brexit table

[Illuyankas]

Great result for the Corb, extremely selfevident that the PLP getting behind a plastic sack of destingered jellyfish like Owen Smith would have been crushed no matter how badly the Tories ran their campaign

[Solidsnape]

Mezla PigDog, on 09 June 2017 - 07:49 AM, said:

Wowoweewah. Er now what? I quite like the idea of minority government and support on a vote by vote basis as it will reduce tribalism and create more meaningful politics. I'm not sure British politics is ready for it. The Tories would rip themselves apart under it.

Nick Clegg should get a new job in Brussels on the other side of the Brexit table

We can hope....

Yeah I suppose this is the best labour could have hoped for.
He looks genuinely happy this morning Jezza.

This post has been edited by Solidsnape: 09 June 2017 - 08:19 AM

[Mezla PigDog]

It will be interesting to see what all the old Labour folk who expressed their lack of confidence are going to do now. I don't hate Blair as much as most be he was very vocal on how much of a disaster Corbyn was for the party and the country.

Edit - I guess that should say New Labour folk...

This post has been edited by Mezla PigDog: 09 June 2017 - 08:27 AM

[WinterPhoenix]

At least for awhile now Corbyn will surely be untouchable within the labour party, after this result who will even try and oust him from within the party? They simply don't have anyone who could've hoped to pull of this result I don't think and even if they do Corbyn support amongst the party outside the PLP will now be even more rock solid than ever. I'd be happy today if I was him, and I am happy for him, here's hoping that he and Labour can capitalise on this moving forward.

This post has been edited by WinterPhoenix: 09 June 2017 - 09:06 AM

[Solidsnape]

Mez, you're edit says it all about the death of New Labour.
It's been such a ride watching the party seemingly fracture in the last few years and the media quite willing to label them as a weak opposition. Then to have the people speak thusly, just shows how inaccurate that picture was.
Vindication much taste sooo sweet.

This post has been edited by Solidsnape: 09 June 2017 - 08:39 AM

[Solidsnape]

Looks like a Conservative - DUP coalition could be set up.

[Mezla PigDog]

Urgh. DUP throwbacks as King Makers, just what we all wanted. They don't have the numbers to last long term. Need a good opposition performance for a while until the next vote.

[Tiste Simeon]

Solidsnape, on 09 June 2017 - 09:49 AM, said:

Looks like a Conservative - DUP coalition could be set up.

Which is interesting as presumably the DUP are very anti-Brexit.

Also a lot of the Tory gains are in Scotland which means they won't be able to vote in certain things AFAIK, though that wouldn't effect the Brexit thing...

[Solidsnape]

This is going to be a Tory cabinet in all but name. Those 7 unused Sinn Fein seats will help her out a tad too.
BASTARDS!!

[Mezla PigDog]

Tiste Simeon, on 09 June 2017 - 10:01 AM, said:

Solidsnape, on 09 June 2017 - 09:49 AM, said:

Looks like a Conservative - DUP coalition could be set up.

Which is interesting as presumably the DUP are very anti-Brexit.

Also a lot of the Tory gains are in Scotland which means they won't be able to vote in certain things AFAIK, though that wouldn't effect the Brexit thing...

DUP are for mega super hard Brexit and no special considerations for NI. So kind of a dangerous stance all things considered.