[Macros]

NI can't afford to leave.

Our public sector is so bloated it's obscene, nearly 50% of our employed workforce works for the government in some shape or form (NHS included).

The Republic, no matter what the SF blowhards say, do not want and can jot afford us.
We will not survive as a country on our own, so no NI will not be breaking away any time soon.

Scotland is a different kettle of deep fat fried fish.

[Mezla PigDog]

Maark Abbott, on 23 October 2020 - 07:54 AM, said:

I think what galls me even more is that we went from having a meaningful (and rather strong) opposition to having red tories again. I've been left without a party because Labour are just abstinent tory lite once more. I suppose I'll eventually drift back to being a green voter.

I justify this to myself by thinking that ultimately the problems brought on by climate change will make the noughties financial crash, the pandemic and brexit look like fucking Christmas. So Green really is the right place to be.

Which helps me sleep at night obviously.

[Grief]

I think a deal is still more likely than no-deal. The UK is signaling some willingness to move competition issues, and key EU players (e.g, France) are softening their line on fisheries.

The UK government has repeatedly taken a strong stance in public and then quietly skulked back to the negotiating table. I seem to recall Johnson suggesting a 15 October deadline and yet Barnier is in London for intensive talks.

Despite the conservative majority, Johnson himself has a lot staked on Brexit and he is not loved across his party (who are fairly ruthless when it comes to their leadership).

There's still plenty of room to mess it up of course, and the UK side has shown itself prone to blunders, but on balance I think we'll see a (limited) deal. This will still lead to significant economic separation and harm, much of which is already taking place.

On another note, polling continues to suggest that support for Scottish independence has risen and this is likely to start really coming to a head come the elections in May.

[glasseye]

Grief, on 24 October 2020 - 02:26 AM, said:

On another note, polling continues to suggest that support for Scottish independence has risen and this is likely to start really coming to a head come the elections in May.

I think I would vote for independence for Northern England or to join an independent Scotland after the way Greater Manchester has been treated. Wouldn't have considered it before.

[Macros]

Just cut London loose and let it burn

[Maark Abbott]

glasseye, on 24 October 2020 - 09:16 AM, said:

Grief, on 24 October 2020 - 02:26 AM, said:

On another note, polling continues to suggest that support for Scottish independence has risen and this is likely to start really coming to a head come the elections in May.

I think I would vote for independence for Northern England or to join an independent Scotland after the way Greater Manchester has been treated. Wouldn't have considered it before.

When we consider that ASOIAF / Game of Thrones has turned out to be a fucking prophecy...

I mean, it really is thought. London as King's Landing, the North getting fucked over by King's Landing, the Wild Folk of Scotland being actually accurately represented anyway...

[Mezla PigDog]

As a northerner living in the south I'll be your man on the inside if you need one.

Have you seen the ex-UK ambassador to the US thinks Johnson is waiting for the US election result before going all out for No Deal? Supposedly he expects a much better trade deal from Trump than from Biden so if Biden wins we'll get a softer Brexit.

[Garak]

He expects a good deal from Trump? THe man who only cares about himself and how he can personally benefit from anything? Oh boy. He'll get a deal alright. It will be a good deal. A great deal. The beast deal.

But only for Trump.

[Grief]

Personally very sceptical of that logic.

The impact of a trade deal with the US is comparatively marginal. The difference between a "good" and "bad" trade deal with the US is practically negligible in the context of Brexit. Such deals are mostly symbolic politics. Brexiteers are keen to applaud any deals the UK gets for obvious reasons. See also the spin the government was putting around the deal with Japan going "far beyond" the EU-Japan deal when in reality it's chiefly a copy-paste.

Indeed, at this stage there is fairly limited leeway -- the range of plausible final outcomes has narrowed significantly -- and external issues like the US election are generally unlikely to swing the outcome of the negotiations. At the end of the day it's a highly complex trade negotiation and the "softness" of Brexit isn't something that Boris can easily flip a switch on.

[Maark Abbott]

Grief, on 29 October 2020 - 01:26 AM, said:

Personally very sceptical of that logic.

The impact of a trade deal with the US is comparatively marginal. The difference between a "good" and "bad" trade deal with the US is practically negligible in the context of Brexit. Such deals are mostly symbolic politics. Brexiteers are keen to applaud any deals the UK gets for obvious reasons. See also the spin the government was putting around the deal with Japan going "far beyond" the EU-Japan deal when in reality it's chiefly a copy-paste.

Indeed, at this stage there is fairly limited leeway -- the range of plausible final outcomes has narrowed significantly -- and external issues like the US election are generally unlikely to swing the outcome of the negotiations. At the end of the day it's a highly complex trade negotiation and the "softness" of Brexit isn't something that Boris can easily flip a switch on.

I think in large part it's because over the last five or so years America has (from our window outside) drifted back to the same hard-right. jingoistic, imperialist, isolationist views that Britain has. So we look at them with wide, hopeful eyes, because they're just like us, not like those grubby Euro mainlanders. It's as much the perception that Orange Daddy will be favourable to us as opposed to Biden (who I can see being much harder as guarantor of the GFA given his background). Ultimately my understanding is that if the UK is going to renege on the GFA, America as a guarantor of that agreement are not really able to enter into any favourable pacts with us without breaking their own obligations.

Further concerns: Internal Markets Bill was shot to pieces in the House of Lords, but the Tories are apparently planning to push on it anyway, because a bill that enables ministers to break international law in negotiations at a time when we are fast gaining a reputation as unreliable, contract-reneging Brit bastards is a really great idea, the greatest, bigly best tremendous idea.

[Mezla PigDog]

Dominic Cummings is toast. Losing the goodwill of the nation during lockdown turned out to be totally worth it then. What a prize pillock.

[Macros]

What did the wanker do now to finally ace him?

[stone monkey]

From what I gather, it's finally come to a point where even Boris realises he has to make a deal, and keep to it, with the EU. Cummings, with this accelerationist stance on political and societal change through breaking the institutions of government and international relations, was a hindrance to that. So one of them had to go. And Boris holds the whip hand in that relationship.

I assume Cummings will land on his feet at some dodgy rightwing thinktank or something. Or perhaps he'll sell his services to Nigel Farage, who appears to out and about, making his own brand of witless trouble in the UK again, after his US gravy train appears to have dried up.

I'd also argue that if Covid hadn't happened Cummings would still be in a job. The economic fallout from the Covid epidemic is a force multiplier on the disaster that a no deal Brexit would be. So I would say that even Boris is worried about that outcome now.

This post has been edited by stone monkey: 13 November 2020 - 11:40 PM

[TheRetiredBridgeburner]

Mezla PigDog, on 13 November 2020 - 07:25 PM, said:

Dominic Cummings is toast. Losing the goodwill of the nation during lockdown turned out to be totally worth it then. What a prize pillock.

In the middle of a global pandemic and the impending shit show of Brexit, the amount of press time that has been given to this idiot and his completely staged-for-press exit from No10 is vile.

No doubt keeping the Kingmaker for six months was worth all that lost trust in the government and lockdown rules... *facepalm*

[Gorefest]

https://www.theguard...loc-study-finds

60% of the UK population now holds a favourable view of the EU.

[Tiste Simeon]

Ugh. So freaking predictable.

[Maark Abbott]

My stance has always been that I would sooner take my chances with the EU than the Tories.

It's nice to finally be vindicated on that, but the suffering is coming one way or the other. I don't see any good options for us now unless by some miracle we end up with an extension, but that doesn't benefit the disaster capitalists running the country just now.

[Grief]

No way there will be an extension. Various EU states oppose it and it would be political suicide for Boris. Plus the ratification process would be much more complicated this time around which creates a certain inertia.

Far more likely is a thin deal now, which could gradually become more extensive over time if this cools down politically and it can be passed off to more technocratic levels (where the relationship remains much stronger).

[Mezla PigDog]

They have created this new UK import mark "UKCA" for the medical devices we certify for the EU. It has to be applied by 2023. But what that has done is frozen medical device regulation at what stands as UK law today and in 2022 a big EU project to make these devices safer will have come into effect. So the UK is choosing to allow less safe devices inside UK borders than will be allowed into the EU. NI gets the safer EU version. Whenever our customers ask me about it and what they have to do keep their devices on both the EU and UK markets I just end up laughing. Then they ask about NI and I'm like "Please stop asking me questions".

[Maark Abbott]

Mezla PigDog, on 18 November 2020 - 07:17 PM, said:

They have created this new UK import mark "UKCA" for the medical devices we certify for the EU. It has to be applied by 2023. But what that has done is frozen medical device regulation at what stands as UK law today and in 2022 a big EU project to make these devices safer will have come into effect. So the UK is choosing to allow less safe devices inside UK borders than will be allowed into the EU. NI gets the safer EU version. Whenever our customers ask me about it and what they have to do keep their devices on both the EU and UK markets I just end up laughing. Then they ask about NI and I'm like "Please stop asking me questions".

My cousin is a radiologist at Cardiff so likely knows these machines well. It'd be interesting to get her take on what's going on. The whole situation is a mess from an external view.

As to political suicide for De Pfeffel... He's already run away to hide again (I don't buy for a minute that he's genuinely self-isolating) now that his top aides are gone. Quite how anyone had faith in that man is utterly beyond me, but there we are. He's done nothing to inspire faith of any sort since the election so why change the habit of a lifetime?