[Macros]

Wait. You're saying gust knew kitsu was scum, and nailed him to get himself.set up as pi and kitus must have known and went along with the plan???

[Tapper]

Macros, on 02 May 2016 - 09:22 AM, said:

Wait. You're saying gust knew kitsu was scum, and nailed him to get himself.set up as pi and kitus must have known and went along with the plan???

Yep, all part of the theory. It wouldn't be the first time this happened.
In an altless game and with a three-killer scum team, there is actually an environment in which it is not only technically possible, but also viable.

[Tapper]

To add to it: I also think they set this up early during day 1.

[Tapper]

Of course, if I am wrong, I have made a huge laughing stock of myself

[Khellendros]

On phone, just read over Tapper's case. I think it's well constructed, but does require us to think about the game in a new way to accept it. I've already said that I think two independent killers is too weak. However, all three as killers conspiring to kill Kitsu? I'm not sure. Mainly because I don't see Tatts and Gust being so mean as to tell Kitsu, 'right, I know this is your first game, but you have to die now.' But I know that's also pretty meta thinking.

[Khellendros]

I'll try to get on again with more thoughts but I'm outdoors pretty much all day today.

[Tapper]

Khellendros, on 02 May 2016 - 10:01 AM, said:

On phone, just read over Tapper's case. I think it's well constructed, but does require us to think about the game in a new way to accept it. I've already said that I think two independent killers is too weak. However, all three as killers conspiring to kill Kitsu? I'm not sure. Mainly because I don't see Tatts and Gust being so mean as to tell Kitsu, 'right, I know this is your first game, but you have to die now.' But I know that's also pretty meta thinking.

I would indeed say that the human aspect is the weakest part of my case. Maybe they planned it differently initially, then something (perhaps out of game) happened that made JPK the sacrificial lamb instead of either GH or Tatts?

[Macros]

Holy fuck tapps, Im all for wacky theories but hot damn thats crazy shit.
You'd have to be fucking cold to tell a newb, 'here take one for the team' BAM!!
Also, surely a better way to pi yourself on that logic trail is to nail your team mate in a lynch, like, start the train. That way you don't waste a kill. There was so much attention on tatts, none on gusty or kitsu, running the train on tatts was the logical play in your scenario. Its too ott. I don't buy

[Coltaine -]

Damn, not much time left. About 4 hours if I'm right?

I have finished rereading everything that happend since my last post.

Tappers theory is interesting and well constructed, but I would have to reread some the interactions between Gust and Tatts for a better view on them.
But the sacrifice of Kitsu may in my opinion only be possible if Kitsu had no longer the time to play, or something like that. I agree with Macros that telling a newbie to die for the team is too harsh for the first game.
Did he mention something like timetroubles in a post? I have still not found out how to show only the posts from one player and I'm currently running out of time, as I have a meeting at the university in a three-quarter hour.

I will probably be back before the day ends. Should not take more than two hours.

[Tapper]

Macros, on 02 May 2016 - 10:17 AM, said:

Holy fuck tapps, Im all for wacky theories but hot damn thats crazy shit.
You'd have to be fucking cold to tell a newb, 'here take one for the team' BAM!!
Also, surely a better way to pi yourself on that logic trail is to nail your team mate in a lynch, like, start the train. That way you don't waste a kill. There was so much attention on tatts, none on gusty or kitsu, running the train on tatts was the logical play in your scenario. Its too ott. I don't buy

Like I told Khell, offing JPK like that is the weakest part of the theory, yes - precisely because he is new. in a vet-only game, three vets concocting this could happen easily.
And yeah, lynching makes more sense generally(but is also a less foulproof concept in delivering the result, especially early game), unless their plan was to sell the '2 rival scum factions' set-up, then the kill needed to be on night 2 - and we wouldn't be looking at interactions between players so much.


As for attention on Kitsu: that was just being brought by Khell on the page before JPK died, in a decent case that would surely have drawn votes.

[Tattersail_]

Tapper you've convinced me. I didn't get a pm from PS though. I had to create my own. Damn I'm scum and I didn't even know it 😊

[Lady Bliss]

Macros, on 02 May 2016 - 10:17 AM, said:

Holy fuck tapps, Im all for wacky theories but hot damn thats crazy shit.
You'd have to be fucking cold to tell a newb, 'here take one for the team' BAM!!
Also, surely a better way to pi yourself on that logic trail is to nail your team mate in a lynch, like, start the train. That way you don't waste a kill. There was so much attention on tatts, none on gusty or kitsu, running the train on tatts was the logical play in your scenario. Its too ott. I don't buy

I completely agree. I don't think Gust would change so much from the forum's noob welcoming committee to quickly end someone's first game.

[Dhenrabi]

I'm not really sold on Tapper's theory to be honest. This seems like a lot of set-up, misdirection and sacrifice for a pretty minor advantage in the end. Keep in mind that killing a scum mate is basically a +2 for town. Not only do they kill their own man, they also forfeit their night kill for it.

An SK or vig and a doctor getting lucky sounds a lot more likely to me.

[Tattersail_]

Gust or Khell are good lynches for today in my opinion. That's both bliss and Tapper on the sway away from Khell way of thinking. I don't know what GH would cf but get enough town CFs and scum won't be able to hide.

I have no problem switching to GH

[Tapper]

Lady Bliss, on 02 May 2016 - 10:59 AM, said:

Macros, on 02 May 2016 - 10:17 AM, said:

Holy fuck tapps, Im all for wacky theories but hot damn thats crazy shit.
You'd have to be fucking cold to tell a newb, 'here take one for the team' BAM!!
Also, surely a better way to pi yourself on that logic trail is to nail your team mate in a lynch, like, start the train. That way you don't waste a kill. There was so much attention on tatts, none on gusty or kitsu, running the train on tatts was the logical play in your scenario. Its too ott. I don't buy

I completely agree. I don't think Gust would change so much from the forum's noob welcoming committee to quickly end someone's first game.

Counter to yours and Macs point is that one or more someones ARE cold enough to kill JPK on night 2.

As for the time argument: the only thing I can find is that he and his wife were going to attend pre-natal training (see below).

Just Plain Kitsu, on 29 April 2016 - 01:48 AM, said:

Alright, I'm at the hospital with Mrs Kitsu for a prenatal class. Khell, I'll post up the promised thoughts as soon as I get home. I'll check up during my break

This was hours before the kill had to be submitted - in those final hours he was very active, but refused to vote Lady B and voted Tatts instead.
So, either JPK was protecting Lady B, or, seen from my case's point of view, he was distancing from Tatts.

[Tapper]

Dhenrabi, on 02 May 2016 - 11:00 AM, said:

I'm not really sold on Tapper's theory to be honest. This seems like a lot of set-up, misdirection and sacrifice for a pretty minor advantage in the end. Keep in mind that killing a scum mate is basically a +2 for town. Not only do they kill their own man, they also forfeit their night kill for it.

An SK or vig and a doctor getting lucky sounds a lot more likely to me.

Your theory requires a doctor (healer on this board) AND a vig being spot on, which is very hard, especially as they're probably operating individually from one another. We also don't have a vig claim, which would inevitably happening in case of a one-shot vig.

If there is a serial killer, I guess we will see 2 kills tonight again, unless the healer is once again lucky (or good).

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 02 May 2016 - 11:02 AM, said:

Gust or Khell are good lynches for today in my opinion. That's both bliss and Tapper on the sway away from Khell way of thinking. I don't know what GH would cf but get enough town CFs and scum won't be able to hide.

I have no problem switching to GH

Then why don't you vote that way?

[Lady Bliss]

Ok Tapper and Blend are both on my radar.
First these two posts one after another:

Tapper, on 29 April 2016 - 06:26 PM, said:

So, Tatts asks me who I am suspicious off.1) Tattersail2) Gust Hubb - because I think he backs strange trains and I don't have a full sense of his reasonings for it. To a lesser extent, this also goes for3) Andorion4) Coltaine, who seems a little defensive - but that might be because of the fact it's a debut.Standard targets: 2) HiddenOne - because he's HiddenOne.3) Khell - because always.Other stuff:1) Bubba is PI in my book for nothing but gut. He's around, not highly contributing but more than needed for just laying low.2) there's enough material on Lady B to get a read. She's definitely around and very actively playing, I have her as solid town (PI) but opinions are divided about that.

Blend, on 29 April 2016 - 08:19 PM, said:

Alright, so I've finally managed to catch up on reading - sorry folks, been a busy couple days at work...Right now, I'm very on the fence about Tatts - he's flinging shit in a very Tatts-like fashion, but I feel like he only really started doing that after Day 1, and that's what I'm most suspicious of.Regards Khell - I dunno, I don't really think there's too much there. I mean, aside from the fact that he's still alive. I'd be willing to vote Khell for that reason alone, but I certainly wish I had more than that.Tapper and Lady B are on my PI list. I've got very little read on ADL. I could go either way on Bubba, Coltaine and Dhenrabi right now - they're all participating, the latter two especially have been putting up very good cases, and really analyzing everything on thread, so I guess I lean more towards the inno side of things for them. Uhm... Andorion has been pretty active, but I've got very little read on him - I think I may have to take some time to really see what he's had to say... Gust has been less active, and I've not got much of a read on him either. Macros is being his normal ornery self, plus he hasn't done or said anything that has struck me as particularly scummy. HO is coasting a la HO-style. I wouldn't mind lynching him, but I think there are better targets out there...So, in short, my vote, at the moment, goes to Khell, Tatts, or HO, with a willingness to go Gust or Andorion if I see a good case there.

While I APPRECIATE being called PI, how do you KNOW unless you are a finder? Anyways, these posts seem strange to me and link them together.

Khellendros, on 02 May 2016 - 12:22 AM, said:

Macros, on 01 May 2016 - 03:26 PM, said:

Blend -this post struck me at the time of reading but I was skimming through and kind of forgot about it (post 674)

Quote

Hey folks, sorry for missing out on end of day. I'm reading up now - I saw in passing that Kitsu was NK'd and was scum? Seems odd! Hopefully a read up will provide a bit more info on that!

Just seems like he's trying to be like casually surprised by it, just seems kind of forced. probably reading too much into it.There seems to be a general lack of commitment on scum finding, a few posts saying, well i don't really think anyones overly scummy, ala this post (691)

Quote

Alright, so I've finally managed to catch up on reading - sorry folks, been a busy couple days at work...Right now, I'm very on the fence about Tatts - he's flinging shit in a very Tatts-like fashion, but I feel like he only really started doing that after Day 1, and that's what I'm most suspicious of.Regards Khell - I dunno, I don't really think there's too much there. I mean, aside from the fact that he's still alive. I'd be willing to vote Khell for that reason alone, but I certainly wish I had more than that.Tapper and Lady B are on my PI list. I've got very little read on ADL. I could go either way on Bubba, Coltaine and Dhenrabi right now - they're all participating, the latter two especially have been putting up very good cases, and really analyzing everything on thread, so I guess I lean more towards the inno side of things for them. Uhm... Andorion has been pretty active, but I've got very little read on him - I think I may have to take some time to really see what he's had to say... Gust has been less active, and I've not got much of a read on him either. Macros is being his normal ornery self, plus he hasn't done or said anything that has struck me as particularly scummy. HO is coasting a la HO-style. I wouldn't mind lynching him, but I think there are better targets out there...So, in short, my vote, at the moment, goes to Khell, Tatts, or HO, with a willingness to go Gust or Andorion if I see a good case there.

especially the HO part, he thinks there are better targets out there, but has basically said hes on the fence or not feeling it about any player, yet there's targets out there than HO? in short, eh, there is more striking me that ADL, but ADL hasn't really posted anything....Bubba - I think I'm countign right, 19 posts.of which, at least 11 are non posts - either pictures, jokes, joke pictures, responding to jokes.A vote on HO, based on his drive by coupled with Gut^TM, jumps to Nom train to "make up the numbers"reaction to the Kitsu kill is interesting (zero interaction with kitsu btw)

Quote

WTF just happened?....and I feel asleep early, or more to the point. passed out.

Quote

Did we have two killers who didn't know each other?

like Blends, feels kind of forced, but again, I could be reading too much into it.over all, bubba is en par with ADL for zero to little content.

I got the same feeling as you from Blend's post, it seeming a little forced. And yes, he has been quite on the fence this game. A further read up on Blend of my own is in order.

Then we have Mac's post about Blend which Khell agrees with and Tapper's wild theory about Gust and Tatts killing noobs.

I think I want to
vote Blend

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 02 May 2016 - 11:19 AM, said:

Dhenrabi, on 02 May 2016 - 11:00 AM, said:

I'm not really sold on Tapper's theory to be honest. This seems like a lot of set-up, misdirection and sacrifice for a pretty minor advantage in the end. Keep in mind that killing a scum mate is basically a +2 for town. Not only do they kill their own man, they also forfeit their night kill for it.

An SK or vig and a doctor getting lucky sounds a lot more likely to me.

Your theory requires a doctor (healer on this board) AND a vig being spot on, which is very hard, especially as they're probably operating individually from one another. We also don't have a vig claim, which would inevitably happening in case of a one-shot vig.

If there is a serial killer, I guess we will see 2 kills tonight again, unless the healer is once again lucky (or good).

We do have a vig claim.

[Lady Bliss]

Tattersail_, on 02 May 2016 - 11:24 AM, said:

Tapper, on 02 May 2016 - 11:19 AM, said:

Dhenrabi, on 02 May 2016 - 11:00 AM, said:

I'm not really sold on Tapper's theory to be honest. This seems like a lot of set-up, misdirection and sacrifice for a pretty minor advantage in the end. Keep in mind that killing a scum mate is basically a +2 for town. Not only do they kill their own man, they also forfeit their night kill for it.

An SK or vig and a doctor getting lucky sounds a lot more likely to me.

Your theory requires a doctor (healer on this board) AND a vig being spot on, which is very hard, especially as they're probably operating individually from one another. We also don't have a vig claim, which would inevitably happening in case of a one-shot vig.

If there is a serial killer, I guess we will see 2 kills tonight again, unless the healer is once again lucky (or good).

We do have a vig claim.

Where?