[Denul]

 Gait, on 25 February 2016 - 12:55 PM, said:

anybody made headway in deciphering the riddle?

which riddle?

[Gait]

who(m?) to lynch

[Denul]

 Gait, on 25 February 2016 - 01:12 PM, said:

who(m?) to lynch

Depends on whether you're Takeda or Uesugi.

We need all 3 Uesugi to vote together or at the very least all 3 to place a night action if no lynch happens. I don't see a Takeda win here, but parity could happen if we lynch wrong.

[Denul]

Telas is voting Korlat which means Korlat can not be Telas' leader.
Telas "could" be Korlat's leader and the reason Korlat is voting for me.

You're an unknown Gait.

Eloth for some reason wants to vote me, and I don't know why or what I can do/say to convince him we're on the same team.

[Gait]

you probably won't

[Eloth]

To clarify: I know that Gait is on my team.

I figure that one should be obvious enough by this point, that I may as well clear it up. This means I know that my team is me, Gait, and then one of you other guys.

There are only 3 possible combinations of people that can be on the other team:

Korlat-Telas, Denul-Telas, Denul-Korlat.

Note that if I could rule one of these out, I could be very sure of voting someone who isn't on my team.

As Denul notes, I think Korlat-Telas is unlikely. Particularly since if it is Korlat-Telas, it'd be surprising that Telas hasn't hammered (though it's possible he simply isn't sure who is on his team etc).

[Denul]

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 02:45 PM, said:

To clarify: I know that Gait is on my team.

I figure that one should be obvious enough by this point, that I may as well clear it up. This means I know that my team is me, Gait, and then one of you other guys.

There are only 3 possible combinations of people that can be on the other team:

Korlat-Telas, Denul-Telas, Denul-Korlat.

Note that if I could rule one of these out, I could be very sure of voting someone who isn't on my team.

As Denul notes, I think Korlat-Telas is unlikely. Particularly since if it is Korlat-Telas, it'd be surprising that Telas hasn't hammered (though it's possible he simply isn't sure who is on his team etc).

So if you know of Gait, and I know of you then it must be the combination of Korlat and Telas.

I'm going to

Vote Korlat

Is it a bold move by Telas voting Korlat? I don't think so as you now don't see them as a combination.

[Korlat]

So it all comes down to Gait...

[Denul]

The good thing here though is that we have both Telas and Korlat voting, it would've been smarter for both Takeda to abstain from voting and hope that Gait does not vote as he hasn't all game.

[Denul]

Not really Korlat, as Eloth could switch.

[Eloth]

 Denul, on 25 February 2016 - 08:58 AM, said:

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 01:12 AM, said:

Denul, if you knew I was on your team, why the persistent push for Gait, given that I stated I thought it was a bad lynch?

Well look at it this way, I know you. That's it. I wasn't voting Gait early on because of what faction he was in. I was voting him because of his play. If you look at his earlier train both Anomandaris AND Denesmet also voted for Gait out of the Uesugi.

Neither of them are claiming to know me though. Whereas you're claiming that you knew I was on your team, yet kept pushing Gait regardless of me fighting agaginst that.

 Denul, on 25 February 2016 - 08:58 AM, said:

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 01:12 AM, said:

Denul, if you knew I was on your team, why the persistent push for Gait, given that I stated I thought it was a bad lynch?

Well look at it this way, I know you. That's it. I wasn't voting Gait early on because of what faction he was in. I was voting him because of his play. If you look at his earlier train both Anomandaris AND Denesmet also voted for Gait out of the Uesugi.


Now look here,

 Denul, on 10 February 2016 - 11:08 AM, said:

I had a good read on the higher content people because I knew you.
You can see I never voted your way, or even suggested you as a lynch choice.
Like I said here, eliminate who could be on which faction. I'm left with 2 out of 3 people being opposite faction. That's great odds.
Finally my reason for wanting to vote Gait. I had no read on him. I didn't like the low poster, avoid modkill route he was on.

If you are so sure on Gait then we should be looking at Telas/Korlat as remaining Takeda. The problem I have here, is Telas is voting Korlat, that would not be a smart move if he was Takeda, he could just hammer me for parity.

I don't think anyone really suggested me as a lynch choice, and that's not much of a sign either way in the first place.

Telas-Korlat is possible. As you note, however, Telas has voted for Korlat.

[Korlat]

 Denul, on 25 February 2016 - 03:01 PM, said:

Not really Korlat, as Eloth could switch.

I meant as it stands right now.

[Eloth]

Gait, personally I think that both Korlat and Denul are Takeda.

However, I think that Denul is a slightly safer choice, because Telas wanted to lynch Korlat and could've hammered Denul but hasn't (which makes Telas-Denul a little more likely than Telas-Korlat, though it's no guarantee).

At the end of the day, I don't intend to change my vote, so it's your choice.

[Eloth]

Please note Gait: there is at least one Takeda voting for Korlat, since neither of us are on the train.

[Eloth]

So if you're think that a correct lynch would only have Uesugi on it, Korlat will definitely not meet those requirements.

It's worth noting that this is possibly the case with Denul too, but not definitely.

[Denul]

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 03:01 PM, said:

 Denul, on 25 February 2016 - 08:58 AM, said:

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 01:12 AM, said:

Denul, if you knew I was on your team, why the persistent push for Gait, given that I stated I thought it was a bad lynch?

Well look at it this way, I know you. That's it. I wasn't voting Gait early on because of what faction he was in. I was voting him because of his play. If you look at his earlier train both Anomandaris AND Denesmet also voted for Gait out of the Uesugi.

Neither of them are claiming to know me though. Whereas you're claiming that you knew I was on your team, yet kept pushing Gait regardless of me fighting agaginst that.

 Denul, on 25 February 2016 - 08:58 AM, said:

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 01:12 AM, said:

Denul, if you knew I was on your team, why the persistent push for Gait, given that I stated I thought it was a bad lynch?

Well look at it this way, I know you. That's it. I wasn't voting Gait early on because of what faction he was in. I was voting him because of his play. If you look at his earlier train both Anomandaris AND Denesmet also voted for Gait out of the Uesugi.


Now look here,

 Denul, on 10 February 2016 - 11:08 AM, said:

I had a good read on the higher content people because I knew you.
You can see I never voted your way, or even suggested you as a lynch choice.
Like I said here, eliminate who could be on which faction. I'm left with 2 out of 3 people being opposite faction. That's great odds.
Finally my reason for wanting to vote Gait. I had no read on him. I didn't like the low poster, avoid modkill route he was on.

If you are so sure on Gait then we should be looking at Telas/Korlat as remaining Takeda. The problem I have here, is Telas is voting Korlat, that would not be a smart move if he was Takeda, he could just hammer me for parity.

I don't think anyone really suggested me as a lynch choice, and that's not much of a sign either way in the first place.

Telas-Korlat is possible. As you note, however, Telas has voted for Korlat.

You were against a few lynch choices though. I thought that was all part of the "act"

[Denul]

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 03:07 PM, said:

Please note Gait: there is at least one Takeda voting for Korlat, since neither of us are on the train.

Exactly! If Telas is voting for Korlat then Telas must not know who Korlat is.

If everyone is willing to vote me then I am not a leader.

That would indicate that Telas is a leader and that Korlat is protecting him by voting me.

remove Vote

vote Telas

Cut the head off the snake.

[Denul]

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 03:09 PM, said:

So if you're think that a correct lynch would only have Uesugi on it, Korlat will definitely not meet those requirements.

It's worth noting that this is possibly the case with Denul too, but not definitely.

You don't know do you?

fuck sake.

[Eloth]

 Denul, on 25 February 2016 - 03:14 PM, said:

 Eloth, on 25 February 2016 - 03:07 PM, said:

Please note Gait: there is at least one Takeda voting for Korlat, since neither of us are on the train.

Exactly! If Telas is voting for Korlat then Telas must not know who Korlat is.

If everyone is willing to vote me then I am not a leader.

That would indicate that Telas is a leader and that Korlat is protecting him by voting me.

remove Vote

vote Telas

Cut the head off the snake.

I'm not that fussed whether or not you're the leader (also for everybody being willing to lynch you, you've survived rather far), just whether or not you're on my team.

I agree with your reasoning, except it relies on the assumption that you're my team. Consider which is more likely:

-Telas and Korlat are a team. Telas doesn't suspect this at all, and thus votes Korlat.
-You're lying about knowing me, and are not on my team.

To me, the second simply seems more likely.

I'm also not really willing to go for Telas today. While it's possible he's not on my team, the evidence suggests he's the most likely player to be out of you three.

It's easy t be paranoid about less likely options in mafia, through second guessing yourself.

Ultimately though, I do not want to pass over the more obvious in favour of the obscure.

If Telas-Korlat is the team, then fair play to them. It's possible, it's something I've spent some time being paranoid about now. At the end of the day though, screwing up by choosing the less likely option due to paranoia would feel worse than simply being wrong.

[Eloth]

Also, I think at that point I essentially said I was against low poster lynches, Gait and OE. Pretty obvious why I'd frame it that way instead of "let's not vote Gait, but I'm fine with OE".