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Investing and trading stocks, shares, indexes, shorts, etc....

#121 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 15 August 2021 - 07:40 PM

Was considering selling some of my loser NERD (esports and video/computer games) since it's about 20% Chinese stocks and their ceiling seems to have been lowered by the ongoing government crackdown. OTOH was wondering if Chinese gaming companies could pivot towards educational or job or cognitive training games approved by the government (and industry) and the answer is resoundingly yes:

'Tencent Games Unveils Serious Games Exploration to Create Social Value


[...] teases latest endeavor, "Palvov: Brain'it On"


[...] "Game as a service" to co-create serious games with scientists


The serious games market in China, while still in an early stage of development, is growing steadily. [...] estimates are that annual market size will reach 210 million USD by 2022. [Doesn't seem like much in comparison with the market for video games more generally... hm.] [...] with China's serious games market having only a 1.55% share of the global serious games market, there's significant potential to build out game as a service.


[...] educational games are already a key part of the serious games market, with over 50% of players saying they play educational games.


Cognitive training games are a category of educational games becoming more common in real-life scenarios for the healthcare sector. Co-creating serious games with scientists is a strategic move for Tencent Games to show that games can be effective in cognitive training.

[...] Pavlov: Brain'It On features a collection of puzzle games that help players of all ages improve their attention span, information processing speed, working memory, inductive reasoning and spatial cognition. Significantly, during the development phase, academic results are used to create an accessible brain-training environment.'

https://www.yahoo.co...-040000013.html


Probably much cheaper than private tutoring companies, so perhaps the government will continue to allow them to profit... at least within bounds. (Ad-based financing is also possible.) Government might even help fund it---but then potentially risk US crackdown. Even without direct government backing, hysterical headlines like 'China is using video games to create brainwashed supersoldiers' or some such could be enough to get delisted....
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#122 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 16 August 2021 - 05:51 PM

'China should tighten regulations of online games to ensure they don’t misrepresent history, state media reported after a government-controlled agency criticized the industry earlier this month. Beijing’s clampdown on the Chinese technology sector has pushed the Hang Seng Tech Index down more than 40% from its February peak.


“This industry’s future direction might change from here. Investors are pricing in a bearish scenario,” [...]


“If they do not allow games to alter history, this may curb creativity and then ultimately hurt the growth potential.”'

https://www.bnnbloom...games-1.1640676


Not clear if that includes fantasy... may depend on how government censors are feeling (assuming they don't try to be more scientific---or perhaps more likely 'scientific'---about potential interpretations...). They've been censoring sci-fi games because of potential clandestine political messaging. (OTOH, perhaps they'd be amenable to 'pro-social'---or at least 'pro-Chinese Communist Party ideology'---clandestine messaging....)
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#123 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 17 August 2021 - 04:24 PM

Pulled the trigger on cutting my nerd in half to get some more clean energy for diversification. Used loss on NERD to cancel out gain from selling some CXSE (China without government affiliation) to buy RAYC (actively managed China ETF).

Chinese government is upset about high unemployment... ut oh are they going to come for my robots next?

OTOH video games can be used as job training, or if esports ever gained international esteem like the Olympics, Chinese government might start to view playing esports as a legitimate 'job'....

Automation could even make it so that esports are the primary occupation of humanity. Hmm, maybe I shouldn't have sold... oh well. NERD had plenty of overlap with my other ETFs. Maybe I should 'make my own' ETF of those NERD holdings which I don't already have---but ETFs can usually buy and sell their holdings through exchange-in-kind, which avoids having to pay capital gains tax, so that's not a tax efficient solution unless I plan to buy and hold without rebalancing---but then I'd lose 'the wisdom of the market' as a long-term predictive engine... OTOH 'sell the losers, keep the winners' is tax efficient if some go below what I paid, but has the quasi-paradoxical consequence that if you only ever sell the losers, you only ever lose money... market has tended towards winner-take-all for a while but won't necessarily stay like that, especially with anti-trust crackdowns.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 August 2021 - 04:24 PM

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#124 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 17 August 2021 - 08:59 PM

pretty much everything I have is a sea of red this week excepting my beloved Europcar.
I still think it will tip back to £1 this year so happy holding, they have a long way to fall before I'm in the red there.
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#125 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 18 August 2021 - 11:40 PM

Two very different takes on the same study:

'Embrace Selling as Part of a Strategy to Improve Your Returns

It isn't just small traders and investors that struggle with the selling decision. [...] an academic study [...] "Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors," [...] found that, on average, professional fund managers would produce better returns if they simply sold stocks in their portfolios at random.

[...]

The problem is that, just like with amateur traders, the pros tend to make emotional decisions when it comes to trading. The first stocks that professional money managers sell are those that have made the biggest moves in either direction. They sell their big losers or their big gainers at a 50% higher rate than other stocks, since those are the stocks that produce the strongest emotional responses.

The study concluded that the main reason for this is that managers tend to sell only when they are forced to due to market conditions. They do not have a systematic approach to selling but generally make the decisions only when they have no choice, and there is no longer a strategy at work.'

https://www.google.c...l_zmVV650wZRWsN

'advisers approach their buying and selling decisions [...] with buying being slower and more deliberate and selling quicker and more emotional.

[...] The researchers discovered that "while the investors display clear skill in buying, their selling decisions underperform substantially."

Specifically, stocks added to the investors' portfolios "outperform both the benchmark and a strategy which randomly buys more shares of assets already held in the portfolio by more than 100 basis points [1.0%] annually per dollar of purchase volume. In contrast, stocks sold not only fail to beat a no-skill random selling strategy, they consistently underperform it by substantial amounts."

This new study inspired me to investigate whether similar behavior is common among investment newsletters. [...] I constructed two hypothetical portfolios: One contained all stocks that were bought at any time in calendar 2020 by any of the investment newsletters [...]; the second portfolio contained all stocks that were sold at any time during that year.

[...] The portfolio of stocks bought in 2020 is up 19.1% [...] versus a 19.6% gain for the S&P 500 SPX [...] The difference between these two returns is not large enough to be considered statistically significant.

The portfolio of last year's sells is another story altogether. Its year-to-date gain is 28.0%, almost eight percentage points better than the S&P 500 and close to nine percentage points ahead of the "buy" portfolio. These results are consistent with those reached by this new study. [...]

[...] The researchers conducted extensive interviews with several managers, who revealed that they devote inordinate energy to finding the next blockbuster stock — while regarding the sell decision "largely as a way to raise cash for purchases."

A consequence of this bias is that the typical adviser will rely on rules of thumb when selling, substituting mental shortcuts in lieu of undertaking the same extensive and deliberate analysis that they do on the buy side. One such rule is to sell positions held at a loss, for example, which can lead to selling stocks that otherwise remain compelling long-term bets. [...]

The cure for this bias is to devote just as much energy to your sell decisions as to your purchases. One suggestion from this new study's authors is to systematically track the stocks you sell in the same way you track your purchases. In that way you can learn from your mistakes and become a better investor.

That is not how we typically view our sell decisions, unfortunately. If we're selling our losers, for example, each of those sells represents a failure — something that we want to forget. As one institutional manager said to the researchers: "When I sell, I'm done with it. In fact, after I sell, I go through and delete the name of the position from the entire research universe."'

https://www.marketwa...ell-11629316390

First take helped persuade me to sell more (after deliberation), second take has me wondering whether I should have deliberated (and researched) more first... hm. Really should read the damn study myself.


Wonder how well that 'buy what the newsletters say to sell' strategy would extend over other time-frames... and especially the future (assuming greater funding won't have already gobbled it up using automation and high-speed cables before humans can react...).


This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 18 August 2021 - 11:42 PM

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#126 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 22 August 2021 - 03:11 PM

Third take on the study says the 'take away' for 'ordinary investors' is exactly the opposite of what the first take said:

'Babies beat the best investors at selling stocks, study shows

[...] a baby randomly pointing at a list will typically make better selling decisions. [No actual babies were used in the study, only randomization. Couldn't the author have chosen cats instead? They're babies... who are also cats!]



[...] On average, these master investors' stock picks outperform by 1.2 percentage points. That small margin matters a whole lot when millions are on the line and you factor in the power of compounding. [...]


[...] investors [...] focus [...] where all the glory is: buying an obscure stock that later skyrockets. They also tend to pay closer attention to stocks they actually own.
Investors don't put the same thought and care into selling, which is more likely to be an instinctive reaction to some negative event. [...]

What's the takeaway?

[...] what's the right move for an ordinary investor?

Well, you could try to be more aware of your biases, pause before every sale and eliminate trading fees with a zero-commission investing app. Or you could just avoid selling whenever possible.

[...] Warren Buffett, is a huge proponent of the "buy and hold" approach, joking that his favorite holding period is "forever." He's held onto his stock in Coca-Cola and American Express for around 30 years.

No matter how awful things look on a particular day or week, consider holding because suffering stocks often make back their losses and then some.'

https://finance.yaho...-210000752.html

Question then is whether the 'random selling' portfolio in the study would have performed better with a 'buy and hold' strategy. First take strongly implied that random selling outperformed 'buy and hold'---to the point that if that's not what the study indicated, the first take was just idiocy. OTOH this third take is randomly adding imaginary babies to the study to get attention....

In particular I'm wondering whether I should sell more of my China ETFs. (Is this study even applicable to broad index funds? OTOH maybe it indicates that moving some of my China allocation to actively managed ETFs on the assumption they could respond more nimbly to regulatory changes could have been a mistake....) Has the harsher regulatory environment already been priced in? Perhaps even greatly exaggerated by a mix of risk aversion, fear, and US bigotry?


'Tencent: The Best It Has Looked In Years Despite Increased Pressure From Beijing's Crackdown'


https://seekingalpha...ed_all_articles

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 22 August 2021 - 03:16 PM

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#127 User is offline   Macros 

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Posted 04 October 2021 - 07:53 PM

Oooofff, take that in the wallet Zuckerberg you soulless ghoul
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#128 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 04 October 2021 - 08:18 PM

View PostMacros, on 04 October 2021 - 07:53 PM, said:

Oooofff, take that in the wallet Zuckerberg you soulless ghoul


Hope it goes lower (or stays down) by the time my 20 year savings bonds fully mature this year---Zuckerberg will make a more decent Augustus (to Trump's travesty-Caesar) than Musk or Bezos I think. In all seriousness though I'm optimistic about Facebook's pivot to becoming a metaverse company and accelerating the progress of AI in benevolently quasi-enslaving humanity....
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#129 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 04 October 2021 - 11:01 PM

The whistle-blower will appear before congress tomorrow so...

If you haven't' seen the 60 Minutes segment that aired Sunday night, you owe it to yourself to check it out.
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#130 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 21 October 2021 - 05:45 PM

Facebook taking a page from terrible corporations playbook and going to rebrand. Says it is to reflect the lean towards their 'metaverse' endeavour. Yeah, sure, that's what it's about.

https://www.dailymai...-metaverse.html
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#131 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 22 October 2021 - 02:33 AM

View PostMalankazooie, on 21 October 2021 - 05:45 PM, said:

Facebook taking a page from terrible corporations playbook and going to rebrand. Says it is to reflect the lean towards their 'metaverse' endeavour. Yeah, sure, that's what it's about.

https://www.dailymai...-metaverse.html


Zuckerberg announced the transition to being a metaverse company at least a few weeks before the whistleblower. They've been diverting a considerable % of funds towards it and started hiring thousands of new people for it.

Personally I just want to invest in the metaverse aspect. (Just as with Alphabet I only want their 'moonshots'... advertising (that isn't heavily regulated, and based on virtue and truth) is an execrable perversion of so-called rational markets---imagine GAI might take it as evidence humanity deserves to be enslaved, or relegated to zoo-like virtual enclosures, or 'little slices of heaven'....)
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#132 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 29 October 2021 - 12:17 AM

The logo I guess is supposed to be some clever play on the possibilities being infinite, and the wobbly nature I guess is to suggest the journey won't be smooth? dunno. To me, and more appropriate, it looks like a classic bandit disguise/mask outline.

Posted Image
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#133 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 29 October 2021 - 01:42 AM

View PostMalankazooie, on 29 October 2021 - 12:17 AM, said:

The logo I guess is supposed to be some clever play on the possibilities being infinite, and the wobbly nature I guess is to suggest the journey won't be smooth? dunno. To me, and more appropriate, it looks like a classic bandit disguise/mask outline.

Posted Image


Color scheme (different shades of blue) seems designed to imply a Mobius strip... maybe it looks better in 3D (whether AR or VR)?

I bought a bit of the dip... a whopping one share. (Investing too much in any individual stock tends to be foolish....)

Do kind've wish Alphabet---or just about anyone else besides Zuckerberg---had bought Oculus, or at least pulled ahead in the VR/AR market. Still time for AMA(NTA) to catch up (or leapfrog)....
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#134 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 05:24 PM

What the hell.


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#135 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 07 November 2021 - 08:25 PM

View PostMalankazooie, on 07 November 2021 - 05:24 PM, said:

What the hell.




Lol AR might actually have some great near-term applications for learning art / art history / stimulating the imagination of teenagers but I don't think that's a major one. Though the level of 'realism' does compare favorably with those particular styles of painting....

Of course META is the tiger and our brains are (going the way of?) the buffalo....
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#136 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 08 November 2021 - 12:38 AM

I can just imagine the branding meeting and Zucks going "alright team, we need a tagline with some wow factor. Something that strikes to the core of what Meta is all about."

Dude who just got back from the men's room after finishing off his 90% THC oil vape pen. "uh, how about 'This is going to be fun.'?"

Zuck: "Perfect. It states it perfectly. Have the graphics department get on it."
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#137 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 08 November 2021 - 11:41 PM

Sequence of recent headlines:

'FB: Roblox is better metaverse play than Facebook - Tao Value' (11 days ago)

'FB: Meta Vs. Roblox: The Battle Of The Metaverse Stocks' (8 days ago)

'Roblox Earnings Are Monday. The Metaverse Now Has Wall Street's Attention.' (23 hours ago)

'Roblox Reported Strong Earnings. The Stock Is Surging.' (today, afterhours)

Almost invested a bit in it---already have some through META and other ETFs---but invested in psychedelics (PSY and CMPS) and Bed Bath and Beyond---and FB (Meta not META) of course---instead; oh well.

(How about psychdelics + VR +... chains? Or a secure enough pod for therapy/reprogramming....)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 08 November 2021 - 11:43 PM

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#138 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 09 November 2021 - 11:14 PM

Preliminary results from psychedelics study seem good:


'COMPASS Pathways announces positive topline results from groundbreaking phase IIb trial of investigational COMP360 psilocybin therapy for treatment-resistant depression

Largest randomised, controlled, double-blind psilocybin therapy study ever completed shows rapid and sustained response for patients receiving a single dose of COMP360 psilocybin with psychological support

[....] announced that its groundbreaking phase IIb clinical trial of COMP360 psilocybin therapy for treatment-resistant depression has achieved its primary endpoint for the highest dose, with a 25mg dose of COMP360 demonstrating a highly statistically significant and clinically relevant reduction in depressive symptom severity after three weeks, with a rapid and durable treatment response*.

[...] COMP360 was generally well tolerated, with more than 90% of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) being mild or moderate in severity. [...] the most common TEAEs across treatment groups (>10% overall incidence) were headache, nausea, fatigue and insomnia. There were 12 patients who reported treatment-emergent serious adverse events (TESAEs). These TESAEs included suicidal behaviour, intentional self-injury, and suicidal ideation, which are regularly observed in a treatment-resistant depression patient population, and which occurred more frequently in the 25mg group than in the 10mg or 1 mg groups. [...]

[...] This is the largest modern study of a psychedelic drug, combined with psychological support, enrolling over 200 people with TRD. In this groundbreaking study, a single dose of psilocybin, given in conjunction with psychological support, generated a rapid response that lasted up to 12 weeks. Remission rates appear to be higher than seen in traditional medication studies. We now have evidence from a large well-designed trial that psilocybin may be effective for people with treatment-resistant major depressive disorder. These findings suggest that COMP360 psilocybin therapy could play a major role in psychiatric care, if approved."'

https://compasspathw...opline-results/

... so what does the market do? 25% drop in Compass! Rose a bit after that (I bought the dip... throwing good money after bad?) but still....

'CMPS: COMPASS CEO says investors need education about benefits of psychedelics as stock falls 17%'

https://seekingalpha...-stock-falls-17

Mr Market needs some electrodes on His testicles.

#ReeducationHelmetVRARHellscapeWithElectrodesAllThroughOurBodies

'America's Ports Need More Robots, but the $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill Won't Fund Automation

A lack of robots is one of the single biggest problems among the many logistical issues currently tangling America's supply chains.

At most major ports around the world, the cranes that unload shipping containers from boats to trucks are largely automated. That means they can operate around the clock at lower cost and—extra importantly right now—have zero risk of catching COVID-19. One recent study found that cranes at the mostly automated port in Rotterdam, Netherlands, are roughly 80 percent more efficient than cranes at the Port of Oakland, California, where humans still man the controls. In other words, it takes nearly twice as long to unload the same ship in Oakland as it would in Rotterdam.

[...] The Biden administration is currently leaning on America's biggest west coast ports, in Los Angeles and Long Beach, to operate 24/7 in order to deal with shipping backlogs. But that shift will take time, as the ports have to hire more workers to make it happen.

Automated ports in places like Norfolk, Virginia, meanwhile, are handling record volumes with no backlogs [...] if lawmakers are going to approve huge amounts of new spending to upgrade American infrastructure, it's fair to wonder why one of the most useful upgrades is expressly forbidden. It looks like Congress and the White House are more interested in cowing to unions than helping fix America's supply chain problems.'

https://reason.com/2...ort-automation/

#BuildBackDumber(And...Slower)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 November 2021 - 11:15 PM

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#139 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 11 November 2021 - 09:11 PM

Getting worried. Have seen at a number of places I frequent posted messages about shipping delays causing slower delivery and availability of products.
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#140 User is offline   Malankazooie 

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Posted 18 November 2021 - 04:40 PM

What the hell. The Staples Arena is going to be renamed to Crypto.com Areana? $700 million paid for that.
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