[QuickTidal]

Why is everyone assuming this is a forgone conclusion for Ford?

[Nevyn]

Gintokian, on 04 June 2018 - 12:41 PM, said:

I think it's more the fact that everyone hates Wynne and the libs this time around and the conservatives could have put literally anyone (and they did) out and they would win. Although I don't think they'll have enough for a majority, if they had chosen anyone else it would have been easy

Also didn't hurt having an emergency leadership selection process with less time for people to weigh in, and with some contenders shying away.

Also didn't hurt the Tories having been out of power so long their caucus lacked clear internal front runners.

Also, the move to more direct and more membership/fundraising tide leadership selection has made this more possible as well. There were problems with the old delegate approach, but it did have a nice moderating effect on candidates chosen.

[Nevyn]

QuickTidal, on 04 June 2018 - 01:41 PM, said:

Why is everyone assuming this is a forgone conclusion for Ford?

I don't consider it a foregone conclusion.

I also don't really look forward to the alternative.

At this point best case scenario would be Horvath with a fairly strong minority that manages to keep its head above water for most of a regular term, and the Tories seeing sense and ousting Ford (which may or may not happen ... even if they managed to force another leadership selection, he could run again with this vote and win), so that next election we have proper alternatives, and can get the NDP out before the economic damage is irreversible.

[QuickTidal]

Nevyn, on 04 June 2018 - 01:58 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 04 June 2018 - 01:41 PM, said:

Why is everyone assuming this is a forgone conclusion for Ford?

I don't consider it a foregone conclusion.

I also don't really look forward to the alternative.

At this point best case scenario would be Horvath with a fairly strong minority that manages to keep its head above water for most of a regular term, and the Tories seeing sense and ousting Ford (which may or may not happen ... even if they managed to force another leadership selection, he could run again with this vote and win), so that next election we have proper alternatives, and can get the NDP out before the economic damage is irreversible.

Here's my issue:

Cons say: economic and fiscal damage will be irreversible under the NDP or Libs.
Libs say: economic and fiscal damage will be irreversible under the NDP or Cons.
NDP say: economic and fiscal damage will be irreversible under the Cons or Libs.

It's a fucking shitshow across the board and no one can give me a solid, straight answer for why everyone thinks this with facts they can source. (Sidebar: I'm not asking you to do this Nevyn....I actually just want parties that are all ten times this transparent so I can make a more informed decision than I feel I was able to)

I early voted based on my instinct, and the Voter Compass software on issues. So did my wife. We hope we make the right call, but I won't spend time regretting it.

[Nevyn]

Well, it is all a matter of opinion as to what damage is 'fundamentally irreversible' , or what will cause damage.


I am concerned about both the NDP (and the very NDP like Liberal ) platform primarily because they are being pretty cavalier about deficits when Ontario faces a precarious economic future, and because they feature big new spending entittlements that will be difficult to unwind if we do end up in a financial pickle.

This gets worse because the NDP's math on how they will balance it out relies on taxes for the wealthiest. I have no issue with the principle. But in practice that never amounts to as much money to spend as you think.

You are going after people most adept at avoiding tax, most mobile both in terms of money, and personally, types of taxes which are quite inefficient to collect (so you might have to collect, say $1.50 more tax for every more dollar in new government spending), and are also taxes whose revenue level are VERY sensitive to economic conditions (so when the next recession comes, revenues bottom out even more just as you are looking for stimulus and deficits balloon).

But the tax changes are fairly easy to reverse in the future and one economic cycle of high deficit won't put us in a hole we can't escape. So the real worry is just the combination of that and any net new permanent spending programs.



It is impossible to weigh the Tory platform because there isn't one, but those risks are weighed against the permanent damage of a majority Ford government just by nature of its election. The erosion that would follow of our political dialogue, plus the affirmation to the complete ***hats in the party who picked Ford in the first place that they can make choices like that and win could do damage that would go far beyond mere fiscal dollars and sense. Which is why I have ruled out the Tories since he won.

[Abyss]

It’s hard to look at the NDP history and not be concerned.
It’s hard to look at Ford and what he seems to represent and not be... I dunno, horrified?
I don’t think either will destroy Ontario, but with the Libs throwing in the towel it’s hard to decide what the least of evils is here.

[EmperorMagus]

Gintokian, on 04 June 2018 - 12:41 PM, said:

I think it's more the fact that everyone hates Wynne and the libs this time around and the conservatives could have put literally anyone (and they did) out and they would win. Although I don't think they'll have enough for a majority, if they had chosen anyone else it would have been easy

But that's not an acceptable excuse at all.

Voters have a responsibility to choose the best people to represent them and the best person to be their premier. In no rational world can Doug Ford be considered an acceptable Provincial Leader, whereas Both Wynn and Horwath are at least something other than scum.

For fuck's sake you could put my late cat into the premier's seat and she would do a better job.

The fact that more then 35% of the people of Ontario are willing to vote for an unqualified, slimy, and corrupt person such as Ford is the troubling part. The possibility that he might win is more troubling. Even if he is defeated and promptly forgotten, it was still that case that a third of Ontario thought it conscionable to choose him as their leader.

It seems to me that if Canadians with an excellent democratic system and unrivalled access to information cannot be trusted to keep people like Doug as far from power as possible, then there is no reason to have any faith in democracy. To put it another way, with the events of the past couple of years (Trump, Ford, Brexit, the wannabe Nazis in Hungary, Poland, and Italy, etc.) I am slowly but surely coming to loose any faith I might have had in democracy.

[amphibian]

I can't trust you to not like Jordan Peterson. Why are you surprised the Ford brand of populism has oomph? You're actually not that far from liking Ford if Peterson is your guru.

This post has been edited by amphibian: 05 June 2018 - 12:42 PM

[Gintokian]

EmperorMagus, on 05 June 2018 - 07:06 AM, said:

Gintokian, on 04 June 2018 - 12:41 PM, said:

I think it's more the fact that everyone hates Wynne and the libs this time around and the conservatives could have put literally anyone (and they did) out and they would win. Although I don't think they'll have enough for a majority, if they had chosen anyone else it would have been easy

But that's not an acceptable excuse at all.

Voters have a responsibility to choose the best people to represent them and the best person to be their premier. In no rational world can Doug Ford be considered an acceptable Provincial Leader, whereas Both Wynn and Horwath are at least something other than scum.

For fuck's sake you could put my late cat into the premier's seat and she would do a better job.

The fact that more then 35% of the people of Ontario are willing to vote for an unqualified, slimy, and corrupt person such as Ford is the troubling part. The possibility that he might win is more troubling. Even if he is defeated and promptly forgotten, it was still that case that a third of Ontario thought it conscionable to choose him as their leader.

It seems to me that if Canadians with an excellent democratic system and unrivalled access to information cannot be trusted to keep people like Doug as far from power as possible, then there is no reason to have any faith in democracy. To put it another way, with the events of the past couple of years (Trump, Ford, Brexit, the wannabe Nazis in Hungary, Poland, and Italy, etc.) I am slowly but surely coming to loose any faith I might have had in democracy.

I agree with you, I'm not saying it's an acceptable excuse, I'm just saying that's what's happening. People hate wynne and the liberals so much they're not looking at the candidates and their platforms, they just want to see her lose.

Wynn and Horwath may not be as scummy as Ford but they are still pretty terrible as well, basically it's coming down to the lesser of 3 evils, who would do the least amount of damage to our economy. As much as I hate to say it, Wynne may actually be the best choice, although I'm still not convinced, guess I've got 2 days to decide...

[Mentalist]

EmperorMagus, on 05 June 2018 - 07:06 AM, said:

Gintokian, on 04 June 2018 - 12:41 PM, said:

I think it's more the fact that everyone hates Wynne and the libs this time around and the conservatives could have put literally anyone (and they did) out and they would win. Although I don't think they'll have enough for a majority, if they had chosen anyone else it would have been easy

But that's not an acceptable excuse at all.

Voters have a responsibility to choose the best people to represent them and the best person to be their premier. In no rational world can Doug Ford be considered an acceptable Provincial Leader, whereas Both Wynn and Horwath are at least something other than scum.

For fuck's sake you could put my late cat into the premier's seat and she would do a better job.

The fact that more then 35% of the people of Ontario are willing to vote for an unqualified, slimy, and corrupt person such as Ford is the troubling part. The possibility that he might win is more troubling. Even if he is defeated and promptly forgotten, it was still that case that a third of Ontario thought it conscionable to choose him as their leader.

It seems to me that if Canadians with an excellent democratic system and unrivalled access to information cannot be trusted to keep people like Doug as far from power as possible, then there is no reason to have any faith in democracy. To put it another way, with the events of the past couple of years (Trump, Ford, Brexit, the wannabe Nazis in Hungary, Poland, and Italy, etc.) I am slowly but surely coming to loose any faith I might have had in democracy.

"Unrivaled access to information" only works if people are able and willing to take time to actually, y'know, sift through it and get informed

Unfortunately, the hectic, debt-and-work driven lifestyle, coupled with the information overload means most people don't really bother to fact-check (because there's "no time"), and thus anyone with sufficient resources to manipulate the information (like the PC with their 5 second YouTube adverts, for example), can skew public opiniuon with relative ease.

I'm coming to believe that this very " unrivaled access to information" fallacy is the very thing undermining Western democracy at the moment.

[Nevyn]

A depressing anecdote to last night. Possibly instructive in our great depression.

Weekly gaming day descends into a talk about politics. And one of the players explains he is planning to vote conservative, because he looked up the platforms on wikipedia, and liked the idea of holding the min wage, and then giving a tax break to those earning it (that was his lone example). Perfectly smart, educated guy, with reasonable theories as to why he doesn't like the idea of a higher minimum wage. But this could be emblematic of the level of engagement.

There may be unrivaled access to information, but I would say electorates are becoming progressively less informed as media shifts. While imperfect, old style news served as a relatively impartial moderator of the truth, and more importantly a consistent source of information most people followed.

Today, way more people are completely opted out of news or political news, and way more of the information they do get is biased to one side or another. So people with an ideological bent find only support for their natural leanings, and the completely unengaged (more common among the young, but not universally) can pick and choose or latch on to any criteria they want to make their decision. Thus the things that out to make someone like Ford a complete non starter for people hardly register. If you aren't paying much attention, there is hate for all sides, so Ford feels less like a political outlier with no clue what he is doing and absurd populist rhetoric. He is just one of 3 levers to pick and choose from.

[EmperorMagus]

amphibian, on 05 June 2018 - 12:41 PM, said:

I can't trust you to not like Jordan Peterson. Why are you surprised the Ford brand of populism has oomph? You're actually not that far from liking Ford if Peterson is your guru.

I don't know where the hell you get the idea from that Peterson is my 'guru'. Personally, I think the piece of shit should be fired from his job, his books should be destroyed, and his fans should be made to go to a class explaining all the ways the man is wrong about almost everything. But you do you. I'm sure baseless snarky comments make you all giggly inside.

Now, I don't deny what Mentalist or Nevyn said is true, but I don't think that's an acceptable defence for voting Ford. At the end of day, regardless of how busy a person is, everybody has the time to spend fifteen minutes listening or reading the CBC. An organization with the institutional goal of presenting accurate info to Canadians. Some people decide that it's worth it do so, others don't think so.

Staying ignorant is, flat out, a decision that people make rather than just the flow of life. If people had time for politics during the great depression, they have time for it now. Those who pretend they don't are willfully lazy.

[QuickTidal]

The latest Doug Ford shit.

[Nevyn]

EmperorMagus, on 05 June 2018 - 02:17 PM, said:

amphibian, on 05 June 2018 - 12:41 PM, said:

I can't trust you to not like Jordan Peterson. Why are you surprised the Ford brand of populism has oomph? You're actually not that far from liking Ford if Peterson is your guru.

I don't know where the hell you get the idea from that Peterson is my 'guru'. Personally, I think the piece of shit should be fired from his job, his books should be destroyed, and his fans should be made to go to a class explaining all the ways the man is wrong about almost everything. But you do you. I'm sure baseless snarky comments make you all giggly inside.

Now, I don't deny what Mentalist or Nevyn said is true, but I don't think that's an acceptable defence for voting Ford. At the end of day, regardless of how busy a person is, everybody has the time to spend fifteen minutes listening or reading the CBC. An organization with the institutional goal of presenting accurate info to Canadians. Some people decide that it's worth it do so, others don't think so.

Staying ignorant is, flat out, a decision that people make rather than just the flow of life. If people had time for politics during the great depression, they have time for it now. Those who pretend they don't are willfully lazy.

As repugnant as I find a Ford vote, the notion that people need a defense for their vote is also repugnant.

No excuse is needed. No defense is needed. We explain what we are seeing, we find it as depressing as you. But the very foundation of this style of government is we don't get to choose the criteria other people choose and disqualify by, and what they ignore.

And giving people the notion that you not only think differently, but they should be ashamed of their vote helps feed into a bunker us or them mentality, where over time they will start actually liking candidates more the more you object to them. That is one of the pieces in the Trump puzzle. After years of Bush shaming, when the media and the left scoffed at the severe obvious incompetence of Sarah Palin, it actually made the right love her MORE. And that then fed into the tea party and freedom caucus candidates in midterms that followed, and all that helped open the door for Trump. Now, obviously this is not the only element. You also have spending, disingenuous campaigning, and partisan media, as well as a party that completely abdicated its responsibility to moderate and talk sense to its base, instead pandering to their biases. But still, not good.

[EmperorMagus]

I'm not asking Ford supporters to justify their vote. In fact, my basic position is that there is no rational season at all for a Ford vote.

The argument we have right now, at least to me, is about whether or not there is any reason to have any faith in 'democracy' when its outcomes are like this.

To continue my first paragraph, I do think that Ford supporters should br ashamed. My thinking loosely follows this article:

https://www.google.c...ood-person/amp/

[Gintokian]

I think you get into dangerous territory when you start to insult people or make them feel ashamed for their beliefs, political or otherwise. Like Nevyn said, If anything it will just make them dig in more. Have you ever won an argument by berated the other person and telling them they are terrible people for believing what they do? Usually that just makes them angry and want to prove themselves right, which could increase the divide even more. The chances of them switching sides would decrease drastically.

I have very little faith in democracy, especially after the past few years, but it's all we've got now so we should try and make the best of it I guess.

[Mentalist]

No one needs to justify their vote.

However it'd be nice if people realized that they should be making rational, informed decisions when voting. In a perfect world. Because (on paper), that's the basic premise of how democracy is supposed to provide society with the most practical, utilitarian decision-makers that best address the society's concerns.

But we've been gradually losing this sense of... civic responsibility? (For lack of better word), where all (or most) citizens have the sense of "we're all in this together" , and we're moving towards the sports fans-like tribalism in politics where it's "our guys" against "their guys"

And I'm not sure how you get back to that. I mean, it should be education, but (from personal experience), the "civics" mandatory half-course in high school was a joke.

[EmperorMagus]

Gintokian, on 05 June 2018 - 03:50 PM, said:

I think you get into dangerous territory when you start to insult people or make them feel ashamed for their beliefs, political or otherwise. Like Nevyn said, If anything it will just make them dig in more. Have you ever won an argument by berated the other person and telling them they are terrible people for believing what they do? Usually that just makes them angry and want to prove themselves right, which could increase the divide even more. The chances of them switching sides would decrease drastically.

I have very little faith in democracy, especially after the past few years, but it's all we've got now so we should try and make the best of it I guess.

I have rarely if ever seen a political argument end with one side accepting that the other is correct in my life. Regardless of whether or not I was involved and whether or not any shaming was going on.

Which is just sad, I guess. But that's the way things are.

[QuickTidal]

If my province votes in a populist, gold-spoon-fed rich boy, slime bucket businessman, who enabled his asshole brother as Toronto's worst mayor, who is also currently threatening to sue his brothers widow for shit he totally did/stole from her...all because the Rural Ontario vote has ALWAYS voted PC and so they are voting party lines even with a blowhard in the leader role who could give two fucking shits about rural Ontarians (rust belt Redux anyone?), and because they hate the Liberals and Wynne so much after 15 years...then we are all lost and should prepare for a DECIDEDLY shitty set of years where Harris' fucking horrid PC govt will look like a pleasant dream.

Worse yet is because the Libs are so hated, it will probably be a fucking majority so they can REALLY screw everyone over without being stopped. They can clash on every issue with the Federal Liberal gov't too (not that I agree with Trudeau on everything...someone who grew up in my environmental 90's mentality era buying that pipeline makes my blood fucking BOIL).

Is the hail mary of an NDP win, or AT LEAST forcing PC's into a minority...too much to ask for? Probably.

Apparently a lot of my fellow Ontarians are HELL BENT on seeing what's happened south of then border also happen here with our version of Trump-lite.

I'm sick.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 05 June 2018 - 04:47 PM

[Mentalist]

Yup, sad state of affairs.

Here's hoping for an NDP minority govt.

*prays*