[Bendal Home]

Hentos Ilm, on 24 September 2014 - 03:35 PM, said:

Bendal Home, on 24 September 2014 - 03:31 PM, said:

And Hentos, if you're on, please chime in.

Ive already chimed. I think its either NG or Iparth. I could be getting played but thats part of the game

Agreed.

[Iparth Erule]

I think the best idea would be to vote for night atm. At worst, the killer kills and we will be left with a 2v1/1v1v1 tomorrow, which would be easier to solve than a 3v1/2v1v1 today.

Another case would be if an NK does not happen tonight, which would mean tomorrow would be a repeat of today -> another vote for night. As the cult is most probably dead by now, I think we would lose nothing by trying it.

I did an incredibly fast read up, so please point it out fast to me if I have made a mistake.

Vote Night

[Bendal Home]

Why wait for the killer to make the decision about who's death should simplify the situation?

Moreover, I feel that there's at least on other IN around besides me and waiting for either him or me to be killed is weakening my position.

If you would IN yourself, the same would apply.

Strange vote, strange reason.

[Iparth Erule]

Bendal Home, on 24 September 2014 - 03:41 PM, said:

Why wait for the killer to make the decision about who's death should simplify the situation?

Moreover, I feel that there's at least on other IN around besides me and waiting for either him or me to be killed is weakening my position.

If you would IN yourself, the same would apply.

Strange vote, strange reason.

If we lynch wrong right now, It could mean the game for us, whoever the killer kills is someone we do not need to worry about during the next day.

The killer may very well be able to kill tonight, I don't want to give him the game by lynhing wrong.

[Bendal Home]

Okay, time to put some more thoughts I've had on the table.

• We have at least one NK mechanism in play, possibly/probably a killer.

Possible player situation:

• 1 v 1 v 1 v 1
  • I don't think this is the case, if it is, it benefits the killer, as he has a kill mechanism, but his identity is probably only guessable.
• 2 v 1 v 1
  • Very possible situation, with IN probably the largest faction
  • Waiting for night increases the odds of the killer for the same reason as with a 1 v 1 v 1 v 1 game. He only has to get lucky and kill someone from the 2 player faction (but he has enough to go on to single on out)
• 2 v 2
  • Waiting for night will increase the faction with the killer. They win by tomorrow
• 3 v 1 with the 1 being killer
  • Waiting for night increases odds for killer, as it's the safest way for him to weed out the larger faction
• 3 v 1 with the 3 including the killer
  • Killer has a shot at the 1, without risking to lose his majority. Again, night favors the killer
• 4 v 0
  • The mods are just messing with us to create SH hilarity.

There is no reason to go to night for someone not in the killer faction.

[Bendal Home]

I don't see how a kill would give us much to go on. How do we use it to identify the killer? I'd rather have real wine, than endless WIFOM arguments.

[Hentos Ilm]

So NG wont vote Ipart and Iparth will not vote at all? Something here stinks

[Bendal Home]

Hentos Ilm, on 24 September 2014 - 04:00 PM, said:

So NG wont vote Ipart and Iparth will not vote at all? Something here stinks

Yes, but NG might be emotional about me calling him stupid.

Let's check if it so

Vote Iparth

[Bendal Home]

Or Iparth can give us a reason for Night that does not benefit the killer('s faction).

[Nimander Golit]

Iparth Erule, on 24 September 2014 - 03:36 PM, said:

I think the best idea would be to vote for night atm. At worst, the killer kills and we will be left with a 2v1/1v1v1 tomorrow, which would be easier to solve than a 3v1/2v1v1 today.

Another case would be if an NK does not happen tonight, which would mean tomorrow would be a repeat of today -> another vote for night. As the cult is most probably dead by now, I think we would lose nothing by trying it.

I did an incredibly fast read up, so please point it out fast to me if I have made a mistake.

Vote Night

Well I can't say that I foresaw that.

[Hentos Ilm]

Remove Vote

Vote Iparth

This post has been edited by Hentos Ilm: 24 September 2014 - 04:06 PM

[Nimander Golit]

Hentos Ilm, on 24 September 2014 - 04:00 PM, said:

So NG wont vote Ipart and Iparth will not vote at all? Something here stinks

Because I was convinced it was Bendal and I didn't want to be part of the screw up that didn't vote him, so I could say 'told you so' in SH. I really didn't like (nor quite expect) his reaction to me pushing on him (still don't).


I didn't expect Iparth to come up with vote night either though. What is going on here?

[Bendal Home]

Nimander Golit, on 24 September 2014 - 04:07 PM, said:

Hentos Ilm, on 24 September 2014 - 04:00 PM, said:

So NG wont vote Ipart and Iparth will not vote at all? Something here stinks

Because I was convinced it was Bendal and I didn't want to be part of the screw up that didn't vote him, so I could say 'told you so' in SH. I really didn't like (nor quite expect) his reaction to me pushing on him (still don't).


I didn't expect Iparth to come up with vote night either though. What is going on here?

Read my post about the possibilities. I really can't see the benefit for going to night if someone's not on the killer's side. Think back, that's what I've been saying all day.

[Bendal Home]

Gnaw, on 24 September 2014 - 02:25 PM, said:

]It is day 9. 2 hours 57 minutes remaining.

2 votes Nimander Golit: Bendal Home, Hentos Ilm
1 vote Bendal Home: Nimander Golit


Not voted: Iparth Irule

Day's timing out at 7:07 AM in that weird time zone. So, about an hour left.

If NG is not casting his vote, then I think we've been played Hentos. If he does not vote it's either 2 v 2 or 2 v 1 v 1.

[Iparth Erule]

Bendal Home, on 24 September 2014 - 03:54 PM, said:

Okay, time to put some more thoughts I've had on the table.

• We have at least one NK mechanism in play, possibly/probably a killer.

Possible player situation:

• 1 v 1 v 1 v 1
  • I don't think this is the case, if it is, it benefits the killer, as he has a kill mechanism, but his identity is probably only guessable.
• 2 v 1 v 1
  • Very possible situation, with IN probably the largest faction
  • Waiting for night increases the odds of the killer for the same reason as with a 1 v 1 v 1 v 1 game. He only has to get lucky and kill someone from the 2 player faction (but he has enough to go on to single on out)
• 2 v 2
  • Waiting for night will increase the faction with the killer. They win by tomorrow
• 3 v 1 with the 1 being killer
  • Waiting for night increases odds for killer, as it's the safest way for him to weed out the larger faction
• 3 v 1 with the 3 including the killer
  • Killer has a shot at the 1, without risking to lose his majority. Again, night favors the killer
• 4 v 0
  • The mods are just messing with us to create SH hilarity.

There is no reason to go to night for someone not in the killer faction.

This makes it obvious how much you understand mafia.

We exactly have no way of figuring out who is a killer among us, If there are 2 other persons other than me remaining in the game instead of 3, there is 1/2 chance of me getting it right instead of a 1/3 chance. Is it that difficult? This is one of the only cases where probabilities are useful in a mafia game.
Anything past the 2v2 option and the killer has already won, the 2v2 option is a sure win for the killer to, they only have to vote night until they kill everyone.

I'm an IN, I assure you that, if the killer kills tonight and you kill me, the game is lost.

[Bendal Home]

Iparth Erule, on 24 September 2014 - 04:18 PM, said:

This makes it obvious how much you understand mafia.

We exactly have no way of figuring out who is a killer among us, If there are 2 other persons other than me remaining in the game instead of 3, there is 1/2 chance of me getting it right instead of a 1/3 chance. Is it that difficult? This is one of the only cases where probabilities are useful in a mafia game.
Anything past the 2v2 option and the killer has already won, the 2v2 option is a sure win for the killer to, they only have to vote night until they kill everyone.

I'm an IN, I assure you that, if the killer kills tonight and you kill me, the game is lost.

Those probabilities only work if we have nothing to go on, a priori.

A whole game happened.

If it was 2v2, then the killer is going to win, he did not win already. Remember that is was 4v2 yesterday. How could he have won yesterday? (Won already). Where's your understanding of mafia?

[Nimander Golit]

Bendal Home, on 24 September 2014 - 04:09 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 24 September 2014 - 04:07 PM, said:

Hentos Ilm, on 24 September 2014 - 04:00 PM, said:

So NG wont vote Ipart and Iparth will not vote at all? Something here stinks

Because I was convinced it was Bendal and I didn't want to be part of the screw up that didn't vote him, so I could say 'told you so' in SH. I really didn't like (nor quite expect) his reaction to me pushing on him (still don't).


I didn't expect Iparth to come up with vote night either though. What is going on here?

Read my post about the possibilities. I really can't see the benefit for going to night if someone's not on the killer's side. Think back, that's what I've been saying all day.

I don't think your possibilities are quite right. I can kind of see where Iparth is coming from (a cowardly I can't decide! place ) - BUT I would never do it myself. For one thing, as has already been said (and I agree with) it allows the killer to make a decision for us, and that opens up all sorts of mind-bending WIFOM.


No, actually, the more I think about it the more it's the wrong thing to do. It boils down to relying on scum to help - why would that ever happen?!

[Bendal Home]

So if it's 2 v 2, the only option would be to take a chance and lynch the killer today. You have not used that in calculating your probabilities.

[Hentos Ilm]

Bendal Home, on 24 September 2014 - 04:17 PM, said:

Gnaw, on 24 September 2014 - 02:25 PM, said:

]It is day 9. 2 hours 57 minutes remaining.

2 votes Nimander Golit: Bendal Home, Hentos Ilm
1 vote Bendal Home: Nimander Golit


Not voted: Iparth Irule

Day's timing out at 7:07 AM in that weird time zone. So, about an hour left.

If NG is not casting his vote, then I think we've been played Hentos. If he does not vote it's either 2 v 2 or 2 v 1 v 1.

Yeah I thought the same thing before I voted. I lean towards 2 v 1 v 1. Since I think Tap would have ended the game if it was 2 v 2. Since one side would have a killer there wouldnt be any way for IN to win.

[Bendal Home]

Hentos Ilm, on 24 September 2014 - 04:23 PM, said:

Bendal Home, on 24 September 2014 - 04:17 PM, said:

Gnaw, on 24 September 2014 - 02:25 PM, said:

]It is day 9. 2 hours 57 minutes remaining.

2 votes Nimander Golit: Bendal Home, Hentos Ilm
1 vote Bendal Home: Nimander Golit


Not voted: Iparth Irule

Day's timing out at 7:07 AM in that weird time zone. So, about an hour left.

If NG is not casting his vote, then I think we've been played Hentos. If he does not vote it's either 2 v 2 or 2 v 1 v 1.

Yeah I thought the same thing before I voted. I lean towards 2 v 1 v 1. Since I think Tap would have ended the game if it was 2 v 2. Since one side would have a killer there wouldnt be any way for IN to win.

You're right, scrap my last post. That was rubbish.