[Denul]

Here is what I am talking about with Okaros. Granted, I am probably being sensypoo here because he dropped the vote on me hoping I am the lynch. But, knowing I am town, it seems scummy to me to just drop this vote and say he is bailing and won't be back. If it really was timeout, he is basically making me the lynch. That doesn't sit good with me.

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 07:13 AM, said:

Well, I'm gonna put a vote down in case I don't make it back.

Vote Denul

Because of the way he analyzed the lynch train and I think he's our best chance of getting numbers for a lynch if day times out in 6 hours.

Then PS extends the vote, so he drops the vote on me and tries a different tact. Is it because he is looking at other options, or because no one followed him onto my train?

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 02:41 PM, said:

Whew, a reprieve. I thought for sure we would timeout. So in light of that I am going to

Remove Vote

and look somewhere we haven't looked before.

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

<snip>

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

Underlined above is mine. This is GL's third and most recent post in almost an entire RL week of the game. That makes him the lowest poster by far and he drops in with a single vote and some analysis and leaves again. In particular, above, he suggests that we "get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show." Quite astute, as GL is the most guilty of this out of everyone playing. His attempt to divide the lynch targets into his two groups is striking me wrongly right now, and there really isn't much in his "case" to go on...his reasoning is basically "look at people who voted on the train, one of may be scum" or "let's look at 'sliders'" as he says.

Now, I certainly would like to hear more from Eloth, I don't think he has posted in a good while? But GL falls into one of his own categories for sure (sliding right along) and he voted for Monok, but wasn't on the lynch train or around to vote later (nice self-separation from category 1). Reading his post right now sounds like scum laying low and popping up to add "content" but basically adds no new information at all. He quotes the lynch train, says very little about it, then votes for Eloth for playing middle of the road. Well, we have like half the damn players playing the exact same way, including GL, so his analysis points back to himself if anything.

Vote Galayn Lord

Because one reasonable sounding post as the lowest poster in the game does not a town player make. It'd be nice to hear from him, too.

He is quickly followed by Kesso which set off some alarm bells. Counter point though, Kesso makes some good points, and if he wasn't following Okaros I would probably have already voted for GL by this point.

Kessobahn, on 18 March 2014 - 03:06 PM, said:

All right, I'm read up fully now and honestly, neither the Denul or Eloth cases have much basis. As I understand it, Denul's is based on him being a low poster, then jumping in posts to be a medium posters over a short period of time. I've actually done this multiple times, with no correlation to my alignment, and have gotten flak for being scummy because of it each time. So I think the whole "jumping in post count" scum tell is less accurate than we think. Eloth's case actually seems to have basis only in the fact that he's being a low poster, and it's ironically posted by another relatively low poster. Now, as someone who rarely is anywhere near the top in post count, I can't really vote on the basis of low posting. Of course Galayn Lord, who voted Eloth, has a bit of an odd post where he outlines his suspicions before voting, which I just want to post here:

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

-snip-

AND back to the game. Scum probably doesn't have to work hard with the implosions exploding everywhere. I think we need to put pressure on two groups: the voters and the sliders.

The lynch train (Kilava, Kessobahn, Rikkter, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Okaros, Eloth, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom), for all the talk, has hardly been analyzed and I see a lot of dodgy language from those who were on it (e.g. Amp and Kesso). But another who grabbed my attention was Tiamatha, doubting having another dead on day one after the mod-kill, but not really avoiding the opportunity of planting Lock in the ground.

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 06:50 PM, said:

Well now I have to ask the question. Do we want to potentially lynch a towny on top of losing one town member today. Putting us down a probable 3 town players going into the start of day 2. Or do we want to eat the modkill and try to figure out connections with out a day 1 lynch?

In the sliders category, I am looking at Eloth, what little there is.

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 09:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 08:54 PM, said:

I have no real preference between Lock and Monok and Rikkter. Lock's talk was confusing and muddled and the book talk after doesn't really help his case, but then Lock could just as easily be a confused and muddled person.


With Monok and Rikkter, there's even less there, other than the feeling that because day 1 lynch choices have been so spot on in some recent games (usually through sheer luck), that we could do worse than with going with the first choices on the menu!

Now that is some informed, logical reasoning if I ever did do some!

Nice middle of the road post.

I do agree that there isn't really any distinction between the three. However I feel that Lock's posts after his claw post smacks of desperation.

Vote Lock

Thanks. Middle of the road on day 1 when you don't know shit seems sensible to me

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

Kilava, on 13 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

So where are we right now, Lock at L-4? About 2 hours till timeout?

Yes L-3 now and 92 minutes left

Make that L-2.


Vote Lock

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

So GL puts suspicion on four separate people, out of the remaining 13, which many people believe is the number of scum. Of course, since I'm on that list, and I know for a fact I'm town, it seems to me like GL is setting up possible compromise lynch targets for the rest of the game. Who would put four different targets out there as suspicious, but instead of exploring each of them (he doesn't even quote mine and Amp's so called "dodgy language"), he goes on to vote Eloth for simply being a low poster. That doesn't sit right with me. If Amp, Tiam and myself are all suspicious due to actual evidence, then why go after Eloth, who's only sin is being a low poster? I don't like this post, seems too much like scum setting up targets so he can vote them later in the game without garnering suspicion. I know this evidence isn't particularly strong, but the post itself has my gut scumdar going crazy.

I'm going to be clear here, this is not an OMGUS vote, but a vote based on gut and this post which doesn't sit right with me.

Vote Galayn Lord.

So I guess it boils down to how I feel about Okaros. He was one of the swing votes on the Lock train. He has a huge OMGUS case on Bek that I feel was an abnormal reaction to a little bit of pressure. He then changes tact and attacks me, drops a vote and leaves the thread around what he thought was timeout, effectively making me the only feasible lynch option, when his second vote isn't followed he tries a new tact and goes after Gaylan lord. He does gain a little traction with the Gaylord case and is followed by Kesso, but imo Kesso makes good points independant of Okaros' case so that doesn't necessarily tie him to Okaros.

These little things just keep adding up. I know I am setting myself up for a rebuttal vote from Okaros here, but his play, to me, has been the most scummy so far.


Regarding the Gaylyn lord votes, like I said, Kesso made some good points, but he is following Okaros who I feel is playing scum like. This makes me hesitant to place a vote on gaylord. I would like to hear what others have to say in the next couple hours. I'll then drop a vote with 1-2 hours till timeout so we can discuss more. At this point I am leaning Okaros.

[Eloth]

So that Bek/Okaros post-fest was snoresville.

Additional comments:

Okaros, on 14 March 2014 - 06:57 PM, said:

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 06:47 PM, said:

Finally, to the posts by Bek and Okaral.

While I didn't think there was much substance to the case by Bek, it did seem like he put in some effort. Whats more interesting to me is the reaction, and the OMGUS case by Okaros. That seems like a huge over reaction and subsequent case for a single case/vote. To me it felt like he was trying to stop any momentum from gaining and did this with a hyper aggressive counter case. This also pinged my scumdar. Certainly it's not scummy to counter a case on yourself, especially if you know you are inno, but the tone and way in which he presented his own case made Okaros come off as defensive in my eyes.

I was very pointed because I genuinely think that Bek's half-assed case appears to be a hidden treasure trove of really scummy suggestions that a town player would not make. My vote for Silchas yesterday was reasoned and styled in the same way, cause that's how I make cases, so take it or leave it. I knew a relatively quick reply to Bek would make me seem defensive, but if you actually look at the merits of what he said and I responded to, the content clears up a lot, I believe.

Korabas, on 14 March 2014 - 06:48 PM, said:

Could be a single killer with 2 symps, maybe?

I'd say it's more likely paired killers (perhaps Sorry & Cotillion working together, given the first is possessed by the second in the books?) with 1 symp (I dunno, maybe Lorne? She's working to destroy the BridgeBurners in the books).

Interesting - I also had the thought that perhaps Sorry and Cotillion were separate characters and working together as the killer pair. No idea how likely this is but it was one of the first things to cross my mind when the game started.

I know we're some way beyond this now, but I have to disagree with the bolded part. That's exactly the sort of thing you more often than would NOT find scum doing (as they're normally more careful with their hypothetical suggestions), not to mention that the kinds of things Okaros is alluding to there I felt were taken out of context of what Bek said.

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

Ignoring for a moment the fact that GL himself is one of his 'sliders' - though of course they don't name themselves as such - I would like to politely point out here that you can't be "called out" for something that you weren't trying to hide in the first place (in addition, 'people' amounts to 'one person commenting' in reality). Yeah, I was middle of the road on day 1 and proud of it - just like 80% of the players on the first day.


The only people who you find aren't middle of the road are the eager aggressive beavers (and Tatts isn't even playing), and those with additional starting information.


Edit: And they usually end up being the former rather than the latter.

This post has been edited by Eloth: 18 March 2014 - 06:13 PM

[Eloth]

Of those with votes on them at the moment, the only one I would be semi-tempted to vote for is GL, for trying to pick on what he presumably thought would be an easy target who wouldn't protest too much. Alas for them, they've done gone made the wrong choice.

The problem we have is that this has been a very low-posting game in general so far. There is little to analyse anywhere (and yes, I'm aware I've been part of the problem). People like Okaros and Bek are being scrutinised almost solely, in my view, because they've been doing the talking and actually have something - anything - to read over.


However, I will make an attempt at wallowing in the shallows. There are two players who I would like to take a closer look at before voting - Ampelas and Alkend. So off I go to do that.

[Okaros]

Ok Denul, I don't want to make this long (excuse the quote blocks...), but I think you have some false assumptions that seem to come from either missing or not reading posts carefully. I'm just gonna point them out as briefly as I can.

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:59 PM, said:

Here is what I am talking about with Okaros. Granted, I am probably being sensypoo here because he dropped the vote on me hoping I am the lynch. But, knowing I am town, it seems scummy to me to just drop this vote and say he is bailing and won't be back. If it really was timeout, he is basically making me the lynch. That doesn't sit good with me.

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 07:13 AM, said:

Well, I'm gonna put a vote down in case I don't make it back.

Vote Denul

Because of the way he analyzed the lynch train and I think he's our best chance of getting numbers for a lynch if day times out in 6 hours.

Ok, at this point, there were 6 hours on the clock, no one but me had posted in over 12 hours (and after that, only the crosspost with Alkend), and you were the person with the most votes. See P-S update right after I left and he added time to the clock:

Path-Shaper, on 18 March 2014 - 10:59 AM, said:

It is day two: 8 hours 58 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

3 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas, Okaros)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Bek Okhan)
1 vote for Eloth; (Galayn lord)

Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

My vote was purely about numbers - I think you've been playing kinda "dodgy" too, for reasons like the ones I'm outlining here - but I'm not the one who has been pushing for your lynch, I was just willing to vote you at that point to get a lynch. With what looked like no one showing up, you were numerically our best chance at getting a lynch instead of timing out, hence my vote and then removal once time was extended.

Incidentally, I removed for reasons said above and I looked at GL just like I said I would:

Okaros, on 17 March 2014 - 03:23 PM, said:

<snip>

Blah blah blah crappy explanation with no content blah blah blah. You didn't respond to anything I said to you. I guess everyone is fine with this. I do hope that this was two town players going back and forth unnecessarily, but you have made no effort to convince me or anyone else. Regardless, if everyone is giving Bek a pass here, there isn't much I can do. Obviously it would be a waste of time to keep pursuing Bek's colossal errors at this point; no one else has bothered to even comment. If anyone is interested in revisiting them, so am I. Otherwise....fuck it, dude. I am leaving my vote here for now, though.

Monok is still trying to find some time apparently, and GL makes his legendary third post that actually appears to have some content. So I'm going to look at that when I can.

I said awhile back that I intended to examine GL's only post of worth, and once I did I felt it was worth a vote. As for people not following me onto your train...if anything, I was following OTHERS onto your train, as you already had 2 votes. So what you said doesn't make sense to me.

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:59 PM, said:

He is quickly followed by Kesso which set off some alarm bells. Counter point though, Kesso makes some good points, and if he wasn't following Okaros I would probably have already voted for GL by this point.

Kesso's case looks to be built independent of mine, probably during his reread, from the timestamps. However, we both made the point that GL was calling out and voting a low-poster while he himself was the lowest poster in the game, so at least some of our reasoning overlaps. Are you saying you disagree with my reasons for voting GL but not Kesso's, regardless of how you think of me in light of my previous play?

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:59 PM, said:

So I guess it boils down to how I feel about Okaros. He was one of the swing votes on the Lock train. He has a huge OMGUS case on Bek that I feel was an abnormal reaction to a little bit of pressure. He then changes tact and attacks me, drops a vote and leaves the thread around what he thought was timeout, effectively making me the only feasible lynch option, when his second vote isn't followed he tries a new tact and goes after Gaylan lord. He does gain a little traction with the Gaylord case and is followed by Kesso, but imo Kesso makes good points independant of Okaros' case so that doesn't necessarily tie him to Okaros.

These little things just keep adding up. I know I am setting myself up for a rebuttal vote from Okaros here, but his play, to me, has been the most scummy so far.

I addressed the crossover reasoning between Kesso and me already, but I'll quote you this again, not sure if you missed it:

Okaros, on 15 March 2014 - 01:58 AM, said:

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 11:15 PM, said:

I'll comment on this one last time before I am out for the weekend. All I was doing was pointing out who the swing votes were. You and amp have your panties in a bunch because you were the 2. Do I think you are both scum? Probably not, as that would be really bad and overtly obvious play. In and of itself, it means nothing, after all, every lynch, good or bad has a swing point, but it's these kinds of things you can tie together with other things to come up with a good case. As amp pointed out, and as I posted on thread, if I was around I would have been on the train to get a lynch, but the fact remains, we lynched an inno and you 2 were the swing votes.

Nah, you just don't have a good grasp of how the lynch went down because you weren't around, that's all. 3 people voted for Monok and disappeared - they never showed up again before timeout. Alkend voted Rikkter and disappeared - never showed up before timeout. Silchas modkilled himself for unknown reasons. That's 5 votes out of 16 completely unavailable, and we needed 9 (NINE) votes to lynch, now with only 15 players without Silchas. So out of the 11 possible people who didn't jump ship before time out, 9 of them had to vote the same person to get a lynch. And 2 players never voted (coincidentally...you and Bek). So we needed ALL REMAINING 9 VOTES to get a lynch. I hope you are getting that this was not easy. With less than 2 hours out of 36 until timeout, Rikkter had 1 vote, Monok had 3, and Lock had 5. There is no fucking swing vote here. Unless other people showed up - which they didn't - it was literally impossible to lynch anyone except Lock, because the numbers were not there. So with about an hour and a half left, I put down the 6th vote, and luckily, Okral showed up and voted with 20 minutes on the clock to get the lynch. Do you see this picture? It was a very long, slow day 1 and most people did not participate; some didn't bother to vote. The Lock train built up in the second half of the day, and while the rest of us waited for you fuckers to show up, we had no choice but to vote Lock or timeout with no lynch.

So, there wasn't a swing vote - unless you count the absence of a vote a "swing vote". That's what you're missing. The only way there could have been a swing vote is if you (or someone else) showed up to vote or switch votes. But no one did. It's a pretty clear picture if you played through it, but I can see how the time-lapse could be confusing if you weren't around. I hope you see the issue more clearly now.

Did you read this? What are your thoughts on the supposed "swing vote" after seeing the day 1 lynch analysis here?

[Eloth]

Ampy Pampy is a seemingly calm kitty whose nerves I sense jangling just below the surface.

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 06:15 PM, said:

Interesting. Silchas' comment was tasteless, but it's nothing worse than we've heard from Maccy or Vengeance when they get on a roll.

However, I also object to the pity self-vote, and I'm prepared to vote Silchas for the lynch.

Up to this moment, Ampelas was simply having a good time joining in with all the dolphin fun and frolics. Snappy one-liner here, cheery one-liner there. But then the first signs of serious pressure materialise, and Ampelas is right there, to echo already-made sentiments (much like his were-dolphin comments were, actually).

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 09:46 PM, said:

The original vote for Monok was based on a post about fish-based lubricant that was commented on by Denul. To single that post out, in the middle of a conversation about homosexual were-dolphins, seems a little like cherry-picking.

Likewise, the vote on Rikkter was based on being eager to start and on contributing off-topic discussions.

While I tend to believe Lock when he says he was just trying get conversation started, I also think he is our only realistic lynch target for day. Some of his speculation hinted at having knowledge that the rest of us don't, and seems be trying to make the game more difficult than it is by suggesting that there are multiple factions.

vote Lock

I'm highlighting this post for different reasons to the previous post. This post seems like not much, short commentaries on the state-of-play before putting in a 'meh' vote on Lock. But this post confesses to a lot, in my opinion. Ampelas is someone who is very much following the game, who knows what is going on and who said what about whom and where. Commendable, yes, but what's interesting to me is that this doesn't directly come out in his posts, but is rather more of a reading-between-the-lines comprehension. Ampelas is following the game - closely - but doesn't seem to want that noticed in the same way as, say, Okaros' posts shout to the rooftops.

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 10:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:15 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

Kilava, on 13 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

So where are we right now, Lock at L-4? About 2 hours till timeout?

Yes L-3 now and 92 minutes left

Make that L-2.


Vote Lock

Hmm, having done that, I've just seen that Lock appears to be claiming a role.

If he's claiming a role I think he's left it too late. If we don't lynch him now we're going to have day one all over again tomorrow and he'll probably still get lynched.

This is the kind of thing I mean when I talk about nerves jangling beneath the calm surface. Not that I don't agree with the sentiment - indeed, I didn't remove my own vote off Lock for those very reasons - but it is also something that I remember thinking at the time didn't need to be a point which was further hammered in, as it was obvious. Ampelas says "If he's claiming a role I think he's left it too late." That's fine, end there. But Ampelas goes on to not just write another unecessary sentence about why we have to lynch Lock now, he makes the point AGAIN in a separate post a few minutes later, as well as making another post in between these two which tries to push further suspicion on Lock with saying 'look, he sort of announced a role and then fled. Suspicious'. I have not included those two posts here but they are #146 and #143.

Yes, most of us wanted to see a lynch, but Ampelas seemed to REALLY want that lynch.

Ampelas, on 14 March 2014 - 08:45 PM, said:

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 06:38 PM, said:

Lock, on 13 March 2014 - 09:25 PM, said:

Ha yeah true enough. ANYTHING I say may dig my grave but I think I should lay out some perspective.


Rikkter named me nemesis. We are fated to do battle it seems!

2 Votes on me, going off my muddled debate on the scene posts, is fair but Rikkters vote landed me on even pegging with him. I mean its a bit bizarre to echo someone this closely on thread Day 1 right? We post in similar patterns and are garnering suspicion early game. Starting to feel like I'm being tagged here.

The case against Rikkter isn't all that flimsy. Rikkter is eager as am I, any redirect argument works just as easily in his case pinning blame onto me. Also he claimed he'd be out to get me initially and here we are! I spewed gibberish on thread in a muddle to get talking and I have to own up to that. It was Poorly done.

Still do not see how any of the things I listed make sense this early in an M&P game for anyone trying to hint anything. Speculating early game is always risky as it pins a spotlight on you but I thought it'd be the way to get on with things. Thats really the extent of it. I think votes on me are
a bit forced, making a meal of things. Atleast one of the people on my vote train is being opportunistic. Thats my 2 coins worth.

Underlined is mine. I think he may have a point here. I wouldn't be surprised if there were scum on his train at this point. especially as the day is winding down and the scum would really be wanting a lynch. Though, at that point it is only 4 people on the train, Kiliva, Kesso, Rikk (inno) and Tiam. 2 more votes quickly follow this post by Lock, I would throw them in the mix as well.

I'm not saying that there weren't scum players on Lock's train, but scum aren't the only ones who want lynches. It was getting towards the end of the day, and most of us who were around wanted the lynch, because we needed the information from it.

I have bolded the last line here. To me, this translates as, "I'm not saying that there weren't scum players on Lock's train, but let's not look at the train". This read like an attempt to dismiss any discussion of the train before it had even seriously got going. "We needed the information from it" should not equal "immediate free pass" to those on the train.



I also haven't included here Ampelas' case on Denul, which is yet another sign of Ampelas' close attention to proceedings (very quickly spotting Denul's posting had changed) which has gone mostly unnoticed due to the low post count. Ampelas also there can't help but bring up Denul's own suspicion of him, despite making the usual platitudes of "yeah, I know it looks like an OMGUS etc etc", and one can't help but think, when put together with the above, that maybe Ampelas had more reason for going for Denul than just because Denul's posting style had changed.

[Denul]

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 06:42 PM, said:

Okaros, on 15 March 2014 - 01:58 AM, said:

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 11:15 PM, said:

I'll comment on this one last time before I am out for the weekend. All I was doing was pointing out who the swing votes were. You and amp have your panties in a bunch because you were the 2. Do I think you are both scum? Probably not, as that would be really bad and overtly obvious play. In and of itself, it means nothing, after all, every lynch, good or bad has a swing point, but it's these kinds of things you can tie together with other things to come up with a good case. As amp pointed out, and as I posted on thread, if I was around I would have been on the train to get a lynch, but the fact remains, we lynched an inno and you 2 were the swing votes.

Nah, you just don't have a good grasp of how the lynch went down because you weren't around, that's all. 3 people voted for Monok and disappeared - they never showed up again before timeout. Alkend voted Rikkter and disappeared - never showed up before timeout. Silchas modkilled himself for unknown reasons. That's 5 votes out of 16 completely unavailable, and we needed 9 (NINE) votes to lynch, now with only 15 players without Silchas. So out of the 11 possible people who didn't jump ship before time out, 9 of them had to vote the same person to get a lynch. And 2 players never voted (coincidentally...you and Bek). So we needed ALL REMAINING 9 VOTES to get a lynch. I hope you are getting that this was not easy. With less than 2 hours out of 36 until timeout, Rikkter had 1 vote, Monok had 3, and Lock had 5. There is no fucking swing vote here. Unless other people showed up - which they didn't - it was literally impossible to lynch anyone except Lock, because the numbers were not there. So with about an hour and a half left, I put down the 6th vote, and luckily, Okral showed up and voted with 20 minutes on the clock to get the lynch. Do you see this picture? It was a very long, slow day 1 and most people did not participate; some didn't bother to vote. The Lock train built up in the second half of the day, and while the rest of us waited for you fuckers to show up, we had no choice but to vote Lock or timeout with no lynch.

So, there wasn't a swing vote - unless you count the absence of a vote a "swing vote". That's what you're missing. The only way there could have been a swing vote is if you (or someone else) showed up to vote or switch votes. But no one did. It's a pretty clear picture if you played through it, but I can see how the time-lapse could be confusing if you weren't around. I hope you see the issue more clearly now.

Did you read this? What are your thoughts on the supposed "swing vote" after seeing the day 1 lynch analysis here?

Wow, i did miss that. . I get what you are saying. And you are right it isn't a swing vote in the usual sense of the term. But you had no way of knowing that no one else was going to come back, a little of what you posted above was said with hindsight. But I will concede that it wasn't a typical swing vote based upon how the day unfolded.


I also didn't see that you had said you were going to look at GL. Though saying you are going to look at someone doesn't really change the fact that you have been all over the place with your votes in a one day period. Granted, that doesn't necessarily scream scum as I have also done this in the past, regardless of affiliation. That being said, look at it from my perspective. If you really are inno, how would it look to you if I came in, dropped a vote just because you had the most numbers and bailed? You hedge your vote by saying I look "dodgy" but really it was a number vote. That just didn't sit well with me...but like I mentioned, I might be hyper sensitive because it was me.


Finally, I like your response. If this was the type of response you had given to Bek's case, we probably wouldn't be having this dialogue.

[Korabas]

We're getting awfully close to timeout. I've got an eye on the game, and will move my vote if necessary to get a lynch, but it's not looking like there will be enough people around to get one at this rate.

[Kilava]

Path-Shaper, on 18 March 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

It is day two: 5 hours 4 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
2 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn)



Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kilava, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 07:46 PM, said:

We're getting awfully close to timeout. I've got an eye on the game, and will move my vote if necessary to get a lynch, but it's not looking like there will be enough people around to get one at this rate.

Once again getting close to timeout. Well since no-one else wants to step up I guess I better had. I'm going to dismiss the vote on Okaros out of hand because it is lagging behind the others and the last thing we want is a 4-way lynch split.

The case against Denul was an early one in the day and on the theme of quiet and lubricant. Quiet seems to no-longer apply so I'm going to discount this for the moment - at least with Deul posting more we have something to work from.

The Eloth case is started by Galayn Lord with the premise of being middle-of-the-road whilst advocating putting pressure on both voters and sliders (from the biggest slider lowest poster in the game)

The Galayn Lord case was initially based on hearing more from him, with only 3 posts to his name. A potential OMGUS (but denied by the voter of course) added in.

All three potential trains on 2 votes with not much time left, my call is for Galayn Lord, lowest of the low posters. By all means GL come back and surprise me but it looks sure like you're coasting.

Vote Galayn Lord

[Korabas]

Kilava, on 18 March 2014 - 08:14 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 18 March 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

It is day two: 5 hours 4 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
2 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn)



Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kilava, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 07:46 PM, said:

We're getting awfully close to timeout. I've got an eye on the game, and will move my vote if necessary to get a lynch, but it's not looking like there will be enough people around to get one at this rate.

Once again getting close to timeout. Well since no-one else wants to step up I guess I better had. I'm going to dismiss the vote on Okaros out of hand because it is lagging behind the others and the last thing we want is a 4-way lynch split.

The case against Denul was an early one in the day and on the theme of quiet and lubricant. Quiet seems to no-longer apply so I'm going to discount this for the moment - at least with Deul posting more we have something to work from.

The Eloth case is started by Galayn Lord with the premise of being middle-of-the-road whilst advocating putting pressure on both voters and sliders (from the biggest slider lowest poster in the game)

The Galayn Lord case was initially based on hearing more from him, with only 3 posts to his name. A potential OMGUS (but denied by the voter of course) added in.

All three potential trains on 2 votes with not much time left, my call is for Galayn Lord, lowest of the low posters. By all means GL come back and surprise me but it looks sure like you're coasting.

Vote Galayn Lord

I agree that it's not likely to go Okaros' way. Given, as I've already said, I don't particularly like the cases on Denul or Eloth, I suppose I'll jump on the Galayn train too. It's a real shame though, given he hasn't really given us enough to analyze as we go forward.


remove vote
vote Galayn Lord

[Eloth]

Alkend - all filler, no killer. Unless, that is, they are a killer. But now I remember why I couldn't remember anything Alkend had said.

Rather than looking at low-posting - which, by the standards of this game, Alkend is not - this is looking at low content posting. Which Alkend's assuredly is, nothing worth discussing except for the very fact that the posts are not worth discussing. That's aside from a little bit which might be said about the following snippets:

Alkend, on 13 March 2014 - 01:53 PM, said:

Rikkter, on 12 March 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:

Damnit, I've been thread watching like a hawk to get first.

you sir lock, are my mortal enemy hence forth

Rikkter, on 12 March 2014 - 07:33 PM, said:

Korabas, on 12 March 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

Lock, on 12 March 2014 - 04:41 PM, said:

Rikkter, on 12 March 2014 - 12:09 PM, said:

Why is that mans shin curved?

Curve lens camera maybe? Either that or he's outrunning physics.

It's cause he's a dolphin-man!

its the fabled were-dolphin!!

I give you...A DAY ONE CASE OF CRAPTASTIC NOTHINGNESS.

Rikkter was itching for the start of the game. Juicy role perhaps?
Rikkter chimes in make an actual theme started.
Riktker pads his post count to the top of the list.

And then disappears entirely with no further content!

Vote Rikkter


And that's all I got for day one.

A noble early attempt to get the ball rolling. Only, it almost defeats itself through Alkend's wording, which shouts in capital letters no less, that this case should be considered worthless and not taken seriously. That is, it is an attempt to show contribution, but at the same time steering away from actually being involved in anything like a debate. Shooting your own case in the foot from the beginning always strikes me as suspicious.



Then there's nothing more to be said about Alkend's posts for a while. Until we get to their odd little stickler for Denul. And it is odd, because...

Alkend, on 14 March 2014 - 12:51 AM, said:

Well, so much for my case.

Anyways, early Day 2 and I want some low posters to talk.

Denul, Mr. Lubricant himself, has 2 posts. About lubricant.

Vote Denul

Like with GL's vote on myself, this is a vote filled with irony. Alkend might not be a low poster, but he might as well be for the content. Anyway, so here's a 'push vote' - always easier than analysing and case making.

Alkend, on 15 March 2014 - 08:13 AM, said:

While initially Okaros' reaction sounded a little butt-hurt overstrong, that reply by Bek wasn't terribly convincing. If either is scum, I'm leaning Bek.

As for Denul, I don't care that they have come on an posted in a flurry. People with RL issues will post like that. It's just how they posted. I wasn't around for the end of the lynch either, but even I could tell it was going the way it was going to go during my readup. Pointing accusatory fingers at votes that were points of no return is rather melodramatic, especially coming from someone who wasn't online at the time.

Uh-huh to the bolded part. I see. Very elucidating. So Denul is now presumably more suspicious after posting more. I actually have no problem with that part, but what is odd is that this bolded sentence is the extent of Alkend's explanation as to why he continues to find Denul suspicious. "It's just, you know, the way they talked, and kinda looked at me, and stuff."

Perhaps we'll get more further on.

Alkend, on 18 March 2014 - 07:05 AM, said:

I dropped the vote to get him talking, and now that he is, I'm not impressed in the least. My vote stays, since I'm intrigued to hear more.

Uh, nope, hope is lost on that. Not impressed by what exactly? Do you mind pointing out the things that irk you? What kinds of things are you intrigued to hear about.


You know what I'm intrigued to hear about more? Something approaching content from Alkend.



Vote Alkend

[Eloth]

Just seen the two votes on GL there...


How much time do we actually have? 2 hours or so?

[Korabas]

More like about 40 mins I think.

[Ampelas]

I'm back, and it looks like about one and a half hours to time out, yes?

I have a couple of things to address. Maybe I didn't make it clear in my case against Denul, but it was not based solely on his increased post count, or even OMGUS. In the space of less than an hour, he made ten posts. The content went thus:

-Post by Okral Lom is suspicious because it suggests that SR could have been Fiddler
-Agrees with Korabas that suggesting there are 4 scum in play is suspicious
-Okaros is trying too hard to contribute by giving a long reasoning to his vote
-Ampelas' comment that he will vote for SR is suspicious
-Okaros is not completely wrong about wanting a lynch on day one but it doesn't help us that much, but also Tiam is suspicious for suggesting we don't lynch
-People are reading too much into the flavour
-Scum want lynches, the first six people on Lock's train are suspicious
-pointing out the 'swing votes'
-Okaros is suspicious for overreacting to Bek's post
-Speculation on mechanics

Can anyone say that any of this is actually useful? Lots of poking and prodding, lots of suggestion that this or that is suspicious, but nothing concrete. It still looks to me like he is trying to be helpful here without doing anything of the kind.

However, I can see that no one else is particularly interested in this case, except Alkend, whose reasoning for leaving his vote on Denul I cannot comprehend, so I won't push it.

On to Eloth's post:

Eloth, on 18 March 2014 - 07:20 PM, said:

Ampy Pampy is a seemingly calm kitty whose nerves I sense jangling just below the surface.

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 06:15 PM, said:

Interesting. Silchas' comment was tasteless, but it's nothing worse than we've heard from Maccy or Vengeance when they get on a roll.

However, I also object to the pity self-vote, and I'm prepared to vote Silchas for the lynch.

Up to this moment, Ampelas was simply having a good time joining in with all the dolphin fun and frolics. Snappy one-liner here, cheery one-liner there. But then the first signs of serious pressure materialise, and Ampelas is right there, to echo already-made sentiments (much like his were-dolphin comments were, actually).

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 09:46 PM, said:

The original vote for Monok was based on a post about fish-based lubricant that was commented on by Denul. To single that post out, in the middle of a conversation about homosexual were-dolphins, seems a little like cherry-picking.

Likewise, the vote on Rikkter was based on being eager to start and on contributing off-topic discussions.

While I tend to believe Lock when he says he was just trying get conversation started, I also think he is our only realistic lynch target for day. Some of his speculation hinted at having knowledge that the rest of us don't, and seems be trying to make the game more difficult than it is by suggesting that there are multiple factions.

vote Lock

I'm highlighting this post for different reasons to the previous post. This post seems like not much, short commentaries on the state-of-play before putting in a 'meh' vote on Lock. But this post confesses to a lot, in my opinion. Ampelas is someone who is very much following the game, who knows what is going on and who said what about whom and where. Commendable, yes, but what's interesting to me is that this doesn't directly come out in his posts, but is rather more of a reading-between-the-lines comprehension. Ampelas is following the game - closely - but doesn't seem to want that noticed in the same way as, say, Okaros' posts shout to the rooftops.

Ampelas, on 13 March 2014 - 10:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:15 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

Kilava, on 13 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

So where are we right now, Lock at L-4? About 2 hours till timeout?

Yes L-3 now and 92 minutes left

Make that L-2.


Vote Lock

Hmm, having done that, I've just seen that Lock appears to be claiming a role.

If he's claiming a role I think he's left it too late. If we don't lynch him now we're going to have day one all over again tomorrow and he'll probably still get lynched.

This is the kind of thing I mean when I talk about nerves jangling beneath the calm surface. Not that I don't agree with the sentiment - indeed, I didn't remove my own vote off Lock for those very reasons - but it is also something that I remember thinking at the time didn't need to be a point which was further hammered in, as it was obvious. Ampelas says "If he's claiming a role I think he's left it too late." That's fine, end there. But Ampelas goes on to not just write another unecessary sentence about why we have to lynch Lock now, he makes the point AGAIN in a separate post a few minutes later, as well as making another post in between these two which tries to push further suspicion on Lock with saying 'look, he sort of announced a role and then fled. Suspicious'. I have not included those two posts here but they are #146 and #143.

Yes, most of us wanted to see a lynch, but Ampelas seemed to REALLY want that lynch.

Ampelas, on 14 March 2014 - 08:45 PM, said:

Denul, on 14 March 2014 - 06:38 PM, said:

Lock, on 13 March 2014 - 09:25 PM, said:

Ha yeah true enough. ANYTHING I say may dig my grave but I think I should lay out some perspective.


Rikkter named me nemesis. We are fated to do battle it seems!

2 Votes on me, going off my muddled debate on the scene posts, is fair but Rikkters vote landed me on even pegging with him. I mean its a bit bizarre to echo someone this closely on thread Day 1 right? We post in similar patterns and are garnering suspicion early game. Starting to feel like I'm being tagged here.

The case against Rikkter isn't all that flimsy. Rikkter is eager as am I, any redirect argument works just as easily in his case pinning blame onto me. Also he claimed he'd be out to get me initially and here we are! I spewed gibberish on thread in a muddle to get talking and I have to own up to that. It was Poorly done.

Still do not see how any of the things I listed make sense this early in an M&P game for anyone trying to hint anything. Speculating early game is always risky as it pins a spotlight on you but I thought it'd be the way to get on with things. Thats really the extent of it. I think votes on me are
a bit forced, making a meal of things. Atleast one of the people on my vote train is being opportunistic. Thats my 2 coins worth.

Underlined is mine. I think he may have a point here. I wouldn't be surprised if there were scum on his train at this point. especially as the day is winding down and the scum would really be wanting a lynch. Though, at that point it is only 4 people on the train, Kiliva, Kesso, Rikk (inno) and Tiam. 2 more votes quickly follow this post by Lock, I would throw them in the mix as well.

I'm not saying that there weren't scum players on Lock's train, but scum aren't the only ones who want lynches. It was getting towards the end of the day, and most of us who were around wanted the lynch, because we needed the information from it.

I have bolded the last line here. To me, this translates as, "I'm not saying that there weren't scum players on Lock's train, but let's not look at the train". This read like an attempt to dismiss any discussion of the train before it had even seriously got going. "We needed the information from it" should not equal "immediate free pass" to those on the train.



I also haven't included here Ampelas' case on Denul, which is yet another sign of Ampelas' close attention to proceedings (very quickly spotting Denul's posting had changed) which has gone mostly unnoticed due to the low post count. Ampelas also there can't help but bring up Denul's own suspicion of him, despite making the usual platitudes of "yeah, I know it looks like an OMGUS etc etc", and one can't help but think, when put together with the above, that maybe Ampelas had more reason for going for Denul than just because Denul's posting style had changed.

My crimes appear to be following the game and wanting a lynch. Whoopee. I'd also like to add that spotting that Denul's posting had changed did not require close attention. The last quote, and the bolded part, were not at all meant to read as discouraging anyone to look at the train. It was merely a response to Denul's assertion that scum want lynches.

I'm going to have a quick look at the votes for Eloth and GL, and then I'll be back to change my vote.

[Korabas]

Path-Shaper, on 18 March 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

It is day two: 5 hours 4 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
2 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn)



Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kilava, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

According to this, we should have about 1 hour 30 minutes, actually.

[Tiamatha]

I am mostly caught up and only here for another couple of minutes. So far nothing that I have read has really jumped out at me as being scummish. I did think that the aggressive defense by Okaros was suspicious but (as has been pointed out) is something that we see more often from a member of town then from scum. I am fundamentally against low poster hunts so it is a little suspicious to see one low poster vote for another low poster for simply being a low poster. Pot calling the kettle black a bit. I would vote for GL to get a lynch.

[Tiamatha]

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 08:26 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 18 March 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

It is day two: 5 hours 4 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
2 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn)



Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kilava, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

According to this, we should have about 1 hour 30 minutes, actually.

I am going off thread for the next 4 hours again. We need a lynch and there isn't really enough time for the train to flip to another person.

Vote for GL

[Path-Shaper]

It is day two: 1 hours 20 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
4 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas)
1 vote for Alkend (Eloth)



Players not voted;Denul, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

[Eloth]

Ampelas, on 18 March 2014 - 08:25 PM, said:

My crimes appear to be following the game and wanting a lynch. Whoopee. I'd also like to add that spotting that Denul's posting had changed did not require close attention. The last quote, and the bolded part, were not at all meant to read as discouraging anyone to look at the train. It was merely a response to Denul's assertion that scum want lynches.

I'm going to have a quick look at the votes for Eloth and GL, and then I'll be back to change my vote.

Following the game but being (or trying to be) subtle about it. As if at the same time you don't want to raise too much notice your way.

Wanting a lynch but throwing in posts to encourage others not to back off. Unnecessary ones, too, in my view. Makes me think you got a bit jittery about the lynch not going through. Jittery in that kind of scum-wanting-to-see-town-dead kind of way, if you follow

Suffice to say I am not assuaged by your dismissal, but then you weren't really the person I was looking for comments from. It's everyone else's opinions on you now that I'm interested in.

[Path-Shaper]

It is day two: 1 hours 20 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
5 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Tiamatha)
1 vote for Alkend (Eloth)



Players not voted;Denul, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom,

[Ampelas]

Right, I don't particularly like either of the votes on Eloth. As other people have been saying, Galayn's vote is a pot/kettle situation. Bek's is set up to read like an attempt to get a lynch, but with about 8 hours to go, and with very dodgy reasoning:

Bek Okhan, on 18 March 2014 - 01:39 PM, said:

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 01:18 PM, said:

Well, looks like Day 2's gonna be a shit show.

Yep. My vote has been on Okaros for over 72 hours and nobody went with it, so... that's also not a venue to pursue, apparently. I don't really have the time to pour over other players right now.

That leaves Denul and Eloth as people voted for, Ampelas being lightly touched upon by Denul and Kilava as being scrutinized for balance talk.
I don't fancy a Denul vote, I think they're pretty decent so far.
The Ampelas fingering is imo fairly innocent and light.


Kilava's scum assumption might be heavy handed and Korabas' reaction is thus understandable, but... a 3 town per 1 scum ratio with 16 starting players would mean 4 scum. The ancient norm for balance is, I think, 3.5:1 so it depends on rounding by Tatts.





Remove vote.
Vote Eloth

I'm not overjoyed with a low-poster lynch, but GL is essentially dead weight.

Vote Galayn Lord.