[Kessobahn]

Ok, I'm back and partially read up. I won't vote Okaros or Bek (at least today) because I think the way their argument has progressed has me leaning towards the scenario that they're both townies who simply had a disagreement, not that either of them is scum. Now I'll be reading up on the Eloth and Denul trains.

[Okaros]

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 02:33 PM, said:

I look at it in the WCS way. If it's 4 scum, then:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 10 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 8 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 6 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 4 Town

You skipped the modkill. This makes WCS:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 9 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 7 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 5 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 3 Town

This could potentially change D-Day, because scum would win on the Day 4 lynch due to parity rather than the Night 4 NK, which could theoretically be healed, guarded, etc., giving us potentially an extra day in Korabas's scenario that doesn't include the modkill. In order to get to day 5 now, we would have to not only lynch 1 scum but ALSO block an NK (assuming 4 scum).

[Path-Shaper]

It is day two: 7 hours 0 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
1 vote for Galayn Lord; (Okaros)



Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kessobahn, Kilava, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 18 March 2014 - 02:57 PM

[Kessobahn]

All right, I'm read up fully now and honestly, neither the Denul or Eloth cases have much basis. As I understand it, Denul's is based on him being a low poster, then jumping in posts to be a medium posters over a short period of time. I've actually done this multiple times, with no correlation to my alignment, and have gotten flak for being scummy because of it each time. So I think the whole "jumping in post count" scum tell is less accurate than we think. Eloth's case actually seems to have basis only in the fact that he's being a low poster, and it's ironically posted by another relatively low poster. Now, as someone who rarely is anywhere near the top in post count, I can't really vote on the basis of low posting. Of course Galayn Lord, who voted Eloth, has a bit of an odd post where he outlines his suspicions before voting, which I just want to post here:

Galayn Lord, on 17 March 2014 - 02:17 AM, said:

-snip-

AND back to the game. Scum probably doesn't have to work hard with the implosions exploding everywhere. I think we need to put pressure on two groups: the voters and the sliders.

The lynch train (Kilava, Kessobahn, Rikkter, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Okaros, Eloth, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom), for all the talk, has hardly been analyzed and I see a lot of dodgy language from those who were on it (e.g. Amp and Kesso). But another who grabbed my attention was Tiamatha, doubting having another dead on day one after the mod-kill, but not really avoiding the opportunity of planting Lock in the ground.

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 06:50 PM, said:

Well now I have to ask the question. Do we want to potentially lynch a towny on top of losing one town member today. Putting us down a probable 3 town players going into the start of day 2. Or do we want to eat the modkill and try to figure out connections with out a day 1 lynch?

In the sliders category, I am looking at Eloth, what little there is.

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 09:23 PM, said:

Tiamatha, on 13 March 2014 - 09:21 PM, said:

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 08:54 PM, said:

I have no real preference between Lock and Monok and Rikkter. Lock's talk was confusing and muddled and the book talk after doesn't really help his case, but then Lock could just as easily be a confused and muddled person.


With Monok and Rikkter, there's even less there, other than the feeling that because day 1 lynch choices have been so spot on in some recent games (usually through sheer luck), that we could do worse than with going with the first choices on the menu!

Now that is some informed, logical reasoning if I ever did do some!

Nice middle of the road post.

I do agree that there isn't really any distinction between the three. However I feel that Lock's posts after his claw post smacks of desperation.

Vote Lock

Thanks. Middle of the road on day 1 when you don't know shit seems sensible to me

Eloth, on 13 March 2014 - 10:13 PM, said:

Kilava, on 13 March 2014 - 10:10 PM, said:

Okaros, on 13 March 2014 - 09:54 PM, said:

So where are we right now, Lock at L-4? About 2 hours till timeout?

Yes L-3 now and 92 minutes left

Make that L-2.


Vote Lock

Harder to pin down a slider, skating by with a few thoughtful sounding (yet somehow worthless) posts. I think the most damnable post was that middle of the road post, and I'm glad people called him on it, but disappointed we aren't continuing to screw in the tacks.

I think ladies and gents we need to not get caught up in all the shitty SR drama, ignore the bloated egos and hurt prides and get poking at those sitting back and enjoying the show.

Vote Eloth

So GL puts suspicion on four separate people, out of the remaining 13, which many people believe is the number of scum. Of course, since I'm on that list, and I know for a fact I'm town, it seems to me like GL is setting up possible compromise lynch targets for the rest of the game. Who would put four different targets out there as suspicious, but instead of exploring each of them (he doesn't even quote mine and Amp's so called "dodgy language"), he goes on to vote Eloth for simply being a low poster. That doesn't sit right with me. If Amp, Tiam and myself are all suspicious due to actual evidence, then why go after Eloth, who's only sin is being a low poster? I don't like this post, seems too much like scum setting up targets so he can vote them later in the game without garnering suspicion. I know this evidence isn't particularly strong, but the post itself has my gut scumdar going crazy.

I'm going to be clear here, this is not an OMGUS vote, but a vote based on gut and this post which doesn't sit right with me.

Vote Galayn Lord.

[Kilava]

Did anyone else have doubts about restarting the game on St Patricks Day?

I'm in no fit state to build a case but am around for a vote if needed and might even be sober by timeout

[Path-Shaper]

It is day two: 6 hours 34 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
2 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn)



Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kilava, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

[Path-Shaper]

Kilava, on 18 March 2014 - 03:15 PM, said:

Did anyone else have doubts about restarting the game on St Patricks Day?

I'm in no fit state to build a case but am around for a vote if needed and might even be sober by timeout

That was yesterday dude but was totally the reason I didn't open up the game, too drunk!

[Tiamatha]

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 02:33 PM, said:

I look at it in the WCS way. If it's 4 scum, then:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 10 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 8 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 6 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 4 Town


Generally in a 16 player game you're looking to have your game last a little longer than 5 days.


But anyway, enough about this, it doesn't REALLY matter. Anyway, I haven't seen anything to convince me that his reaction was not overdone, so...


vote Okaros

I agree with most of your analysis except for the break down. You forgot about the modkill

If it's 4 scum, then:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 9 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 7 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 5 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 3 Town


Which

is a bit worse in my opinion.

I don't really feel any lynch yet. Will keep reading up.

[Okaros]

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 02:50 PM, said:

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 02:33 PM, said:

I look at it in the WCS way. If it's 4 scum, then:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 10 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 8 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 6 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 4 Town

You skipped the modkill. This makes WCS:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 9 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 7 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 5 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 3 Town

This could potentially change D-Day, because scum would win on the Day 4 lynch due to parity rather than the Night 4 NK, which could theoretically be healed, guarded, etc., giving us potentially an extra day in Korabas's scenario that doesn't include the modkill. In order to get to day 5 now, we would have to not only lynch 1 scum but ALSO block an NK (assuming 4 scum).

Tiamatha, on 18 March 2014 - 04:07 PM, said:

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 02:33 PM, said:

I look at it in the WCS way. If it's 4 scum, then:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 10 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 8 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 6 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 4 Town


Generally in a 16 player game you're looking to have your game last a little longer than 5 days.


But anyway, enough about this, it doesn't REALLY matter. Anyway, I haven't seen anything to convince me that his reaction was not overdone, so...


vote Okaros

I agree with most of your analysis except for the break down. You forgot about the modkill

If it's 4 scum, then:

Day 1 = 4 Scum, 12 Town
Day 2 = 4 Scum, 9 Town
Day 3 = 4 Scum, 7 Town
Day 4 = 4 Scum, 5 Town
Day 5 = 4 Scum, 3 Town


Which

is a bit worse in my opinion.

I don't really feel any lynch yet. Will keep reading up.

>_>

....

<_<

[Korabas]

To be fair to both Tiamatha and Okaros, who've made the same point, I wasn't considering the modkill when talking about creating a game. You're both right in that we must take that into account into this game, but I was simply talking about what the WCS would be in a 16 player game with 4 scum while creating it, not knowing that there would be a modkill.


Anyway, as I said, you're both right, which means we only have until Night 4 if it's 4 scum, I still think it's more likely to be 3 scum, which would give us a couple more nights to find the killers.

[Path-Shaper]

Ganoes was devastated when he found out the news.

He had left Tattersail in search of Toc the Younger only to find himself caught in a long conversation with Tayschrenn. Apparently the High Mage knew exactly why Ganoes was in Pale. Not only that but he had direct word from Adjunct Lorn. She was on her way to Pale. Paran could only guess as to why. He looks at Tayschrenn who only lowers his eyebrows. No answers there.

In a foul mood he leaves and again resumes his search. He gets wind of a card game involving a bunch of marines, without anything better to do he heads in the direction of the cavern.

Quick Ben and Kalam follow Captain Paran through the streets. They see him duck into an abandoned hut. A little time goes by and he comes out looking a little angry. They wait a little while and are rewarded by the appearance of High Mage Tayschrenn. Exchanging a look they set off after Ganoes. He stops to talk to some marines and finds out about Fiddlers' card game. After finding out where he is heading they race to get there ahead of him. They do not want to be noticed by their lack of presence.

On his way to the cavern he met Toc the Younger and Dujek. Neither looked happy and that is when they told him what had happened. They head to a different bar and drink Quorl's milk, darkness ensues.

[Path-Shaper]

It is day two: 5 hours 4 minutes remaining

13 players still alive; Alkend, Ampelas, Bek Okhan, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kessobahn, Kilava, Korabas, Monok Ochem, Okaros, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to night

2 Votes for Denul; (Alkend, Ampelas,)
1 Vote for Okaros; (Korabas)
2 votes for Eloth; (Galayn lord, Bek Okhan)
2 votes for Galayn Lord; (Okaros, Kessobahn)



Players not voted;Denul, Eloth, Kilava, Monok Ochem, Okral Lom, Tiamatha,

[Okaros]

Korabas, on 18 March 2014 - 04:19 PM, said:

To be fair to both Tiamatha and Okaros, who've made the same point, I wasn't considering the modkill when talking about creating a game. You're both right in that we must take that into account into this game, but I was simply talking about what the WCS would be in a 16 player game with 4 scum while creating it, not knowing that there would be a modkill.


Anyway, as I said, you're both right, which means we only have until Night 4 if it's 4 scum, I still think it's more likely to be 3 scum, which would give us a couple more nights to find the killers.

Yeah, and it was a fair breakdown not taking the modkill into account. I also have the feeling that there are probably 3 scum...with TMDI 4, there could be plenty of mechanics to extend or shorten the game, and it seems like 4 scum might overbalance things, depending on role distribution. But this is all speculation, not very helpful....my gut just says 3, don't have more than that to go on.

[Eloth]

I'm here, sorry, I entirely forgot about the game.

[Okaros]

Eloth, on 18 March 2014 - 04:56 PM, said:

I'm here, sorry, I entirely forgot about the game.

....

[Denul]

back and reading up

[Eloth]

Okaros, on 18 March 2014 - 04:59 PM, said:

Eloth, on 18 March 2014 - 04:56 PM, said:

I'm here, sorry, I entirely forgot about the game.

....

In fairness, I've been extremely busy I'm just reading up the last couple of pages now.

[Denul]

Wow, not much has happened since i last posted. Based on this alone that makes me want to vote off a low poster. If we get stuck with enough low posters come end game, it never bodes well for town.

With only 5 hours left we don't have much wiggle room. Obviously I am not voting myself. I think the 2 votes on me are interesting. Ampleas in that his is a classic OMGUS vote, and Alkend in that his vote was solely because I was a low poster, but then he kept it there. I can respect that if he thinks I am scum. Though he is waiting for me to further respond, not sure what I am supposed to say. I rebutted amp's "case" as best I could. Ampleas clearly felt threatened by the little pressure I put upon him and that bears looking into down the line. Aftrer all, if you are scum and you can get town to lynch the person that has you pegged, 2 birds, one stone...etc.

That leaves Gaylord, Eloth and Okaros.

I want to hear what Eloth's thoughts are up to this point. I will be around up to lynch, so I am not in a rush to throw a vote with 5 hours remaining. Since he has checked in and will be viewing the thread with a new set of eyes, I'd like his thoughts.

I am going back and will reread the Gaylord/Okaros case

[Denul]

Good post by Kesso and his reasoning for voting Gaylyn Lord. It makes sense, my only reservation is that he is following Okaros in a case and Okaros continues to do dodgy things, in my eyes.

[Kessobahn]

Denul, on 18 March 2014 - 05:42 PM, said:

Good post by Kesso and his reasoning for voting Gaylyn Lord. It makes sense, my only reservation is that he is following Okaros in a case and Okaros continues to do dodgy things, in my eyes.

You make a good point. But for me, since I'm leaning towards the opinion that Okaros and Bek are just two townies who have a mutual distrust and can't really get along, instead of either of them being scum. Of course, that's always subject to change, but for now that's how i see it.