[Werthead]

South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador and told him bluntly that the presence of North Korean soldiers on training missions in Russia, let alone on the front line in Ukraine, is a major escalatory move and will force South Korea to take reciprocal measures. They include South Korea ending its military supply restrictions it currently has on other countries, including Ukraine and NATO members.

It sounds like South Korea basically telling Russia to forget about the idea or they will start shipping artillery shells to Ukraine in their millions (South Korea's strategic reserve is believed to be many millions over what they'd actually need in a conflict breaking out), and these won't explode on launch or be shitty in quality. The Russian ambassador seemed to be a bit bamboozled and Russia itself seemed almost apologetic in saying this move wasn't aimed at South Korea.

The new hawkish SK government is something of a pain in the butt to deal with, but their response here seems to have been effective.

Interesting. The Russian 19the Tank Regiment, 25th Army (Krasny Lyman area), and the 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (Maksymilianivka area) have both refused to go into combat. Both units cite massive and unacceptable losses, and in the latter case an attempt to transfer them to the 102nd Regiment, a well-known "suicide battalion" which has almost been completely wiped out and reconstituted several times over.

Ukraine has joined a NATO training exercise in Portugal. Ukraine is demonstrating some of its unmanned drones, particularly naval drones, and sharing its expertise in electronic warfare.

It's been confirmed that in 2022, the United States brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine that allowed 400,000 Ukrainian citizens to leave Russian-captured territories, as well as prisoner exchanges and the "grain deal."

Russian bomber pilot Dmitry Golenkov, who carried out the June 2022 bombing of a shopping mall in Kremenchuk, has been bludgeoned to death with a hammer. Golenkov had become a minor celebrity in Russia for admitting to carrying out the bombing.

A Ukrainian unit fighting in Lyubimovka, Kursk Oblast, was completely surrounded in a building. They called in an artillery strike on their own position, but after identifying their precise location, the Ukrainian gunners using NATO equipment were able to hit the area around them in concentric blasts, destroying the Russian attackers and allowing all nine Ukrainian soldiers to withdraw with their wounded still alive.

The Pokrovsk front remains fiercely contested, with Russian 28 vehicles destroyed in one assault yesterday. 23 were destroyed the day before.

[Abyss]

Quote

A Ukrainian unit fighting in Lyubimovka, Kursk Oblast, was completely surrounded in a building. They called in an artillery strike on their own position, but after identifying their precise location, the Ukrainian gunners using NATO equipment were able to hit the area around them in concentric blasts, destroying the Russian attackers and allowing all nine Ukrainian soldiers to withdraw with their wounded still alive.

Holy.


Fuck.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 21 October 2024 - 11:12 PM, said:

South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador and told him bluntly that the presence of North Korean soldiers on training missions in Russia, let alone on the front line in Ukraine, is a major escalatory move and will force South Korea to take reciprocal measures. They include South Korea ending its military supply restrictions it currently has on other countries, including Ukraine and NATO members.

It sounds like South Korea basically telling Russia to forget about the idea or they will start shipping artillery shells to Ukraine in their millions (South Korea's strategic reserve is believed to be many millions over what they'd actually need in a conflict breaking out), and these won't explode on launch or be shitty in quality. The Russian ambassador seemed to be a bit bamboozled and Russia itself seemed almost apologetic in saying this move wasn't aimed at South Korea.

The new hawkish SK government is something of a pain in the butt to deal with, but their response here seems to have been effective.

Interesting. The Russian 19the Tank Regiment, 25th Army (Krasny Lyman area), and the 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (Maksymilianivka area) have both refused to go into combat. Both units cite massive and unacceptable losses, and in the latter case an attempt to transfer them to the 102nd Regiment, a well-known "suicide battalion" which has almost been completely wiped out and reconstituted several times over.

Ukraine has joined a NATO training exercise in Portugal. Ukraine is demonstrating some of its unmanned drones, particularly naval drones, and sharing its expertise in electronic warfare.

It's been confirmed that in 2022, the United States brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine that allowed 400,000 Ukrainian citizens to leave Russian-captured territories, as well as prisoner exchanges and the "grain deal."

Russian bomber pilot Dmitry Golenkov, who carried out the June 2022 bombing of a shopping mall in Kremenchuk, has been bludgeoned to death with a hammer. Golenkov had become a minor celebrity in Russia for admitting to carrying out the bombing.

A Ukrainian unit fighting in Lyubimovka, Kursk Oblast, was completely surrounded in a building. They called in an artillery strike on their own position, but after identifying their precise location, the Ukrainian gunners using NATO equipment were able to hit the area around them in concentric blasts, destroying the Russian attackers and allowing all nine Ukrainian soldiers to withdraw with their wounded still alive.

The Pokrovsk front remains fiercely contested, with Russian 28 vehicles destroyed in one assault yesterday. 23 were destroyed the day before.

It's not a riot until the hated commanding officer gets shot.
I expect these men to fall. In line once the Military Police shows up. Unfortunately, they always do.

[Abyss]

Mentalist, on 22 October 2024 - 04:24 AM, said:

...
I expect these men to fall. In line once the Military Police shows up. Unfortunately, they always do.

Between 'shot rtf now' and 'likely shot but if you run really really fast keep your head down are extremely lucky and the three guys next to you buy it there is a slightly lower chance that it will be fatal', no surprise which way they're going to go.

[Werthead]

President Xi Jinping has visited Tatarstan, expressed solidary with the people of Tatarstan and set up "lines of communication" with the government of the region.

This has attracted attention from Russian commentators who are bemused as to why he made a big show of doing that. Tatarstan has strong anti-Moscow sentiment and tried to secede from Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed, but its geographical position and population were not strong enough to make that viable. But there has been renewed nationalism recently, due to Russian crackdowns on the teaching of the local language (violating a 2007 agreement with Putin directly), conscripts being sent to Ukraine, and solidarity with Crimean and Ukrainian Tatars. If the Russian Federation collapses - a very big if, though there are now fault lines of wildly variable strength running through Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Buryatia and Tatarstan at the very least - Tatarstan's position would be of interest to China.

Incidentally, the head of the Crimean Tatars, Mutafa Dzhemilev, has been working in exile alongside the Ukrainian government and recently attended the signing of a defence agreement between the Ukrainian government and Turkish military export company Baykar.

The BRICS summit ended with a declaration that the attending parties recognise the sovereignty of Ukraine and the resolution of the crisis should be accomplished via the recognised UN mechanisms. Which seem to have been interpreted as a very polite but firm rebuttal to Putin. Turkey is seeking closer relations with BRICS and may even apply to join, although this might result in problems with its military contracts with fellow NATO members (who will not allow NATO military technology to possibly be transferred to Russia and China). Turkey has also doubled the tariffs for tankers carrying Russian oil through the Bosphorus and ticket prices to Turkey for Russian travellers have apparently increased by up to 10 times, so never let it be said that Erdogan ever saw a situation he could not milk to his advantage.

The reluctant troops from the Russian 19th Tank Regiment have been given "discipline" which involved them being thrown in a pit without food or water. Nine survived, although it's unclear how many were disciplined in the first place. Meanwhile, the V Company of the 30th Regiment have also been disciplined for refusing to go to the front and get drunk instead.

A Ukrainian Leopard tank found a Russian drone forward control centre and destroyed it. Apparently the Russian drone operators were so intent on their controls they didn't realise their comrades had retreated and left them in enemy territory.

Ukrainian forces from the 28th Brigade repulsed a major push on the flank near Toretsk.

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol has now publicly and directed stated that South Korea is now reconsidering its stance on supplying Ukraine if North Korean troops take an active role in the war. "We will not sit idly by."

[Cause]

Do NK troops ever leave NK in large numbers?

I keep wondering if NK isn’t risking exposing them to the outside world and risk them defecting en mass.

[Abyss]

Cause, on 24 October 2024 - 11:18 PM, said:

Do NK troops ever leave NK in large numbers?

I keep wondering if NK isn't risking exposing them to the outside world and risk them defecting en mass.

NK has about 1mil troops and zero plans to invade SK ever, they could care less, but the optics of say 5000 troops being sent in to fight and just dropping their weapons, marching over to a random Ukrainian and declaring their surrender and request for asylum?

[Garak]

They might not defect for fear of what will happen to their families back home.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainian military is saying that it has inflicted 18,000 casualties on Russia in the Kursk region, with 7,000 Russians KIA. Ukrainian losses they claim are very light in comparison, and this has made the excursion strategically worthwhile.

Russian pilots wrote a letter on the side of a glide bomb, photographed it, and sent it to the Russian MoD, complaining that they were dropping it on Russian soil (presumably in Kursk). The Russian Air Force stood down the entire unit and they were "disciplined harshly" for eight hours straight.

Some western intelligence sources claiming that Russia and Georgian Dream are colluding on a plan where GD will claim to have won the election regardless of the actual results, crush any mass protests that erupt, and will then sign a treaty of alliance with Russia, which will involve Russian forces withdrawing from Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The WSJ claims that Russia has been providing targeting data for the Houthis to attack shipping in the Red Sea. In another story, they claim there has been constant communication between Musk and Putin since 2022.

The Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates to 21% as inflation continues to bite hard.

The 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet has suffered "enormous" losses of men and material in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have zeroed the main highways extending around the edges of their controlled zone and have been destroying Russian vehicles attempting to use those highways to deploy quickly.

The ICC has initiated disciplinary action against Mongolia for failing to arrest Putin when he arrived in the country.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 25 October 2024 - 01:15 PM

[Werthead]

Three of the four bloodiest days of the war - for Russia - have been in the last week. 1,710 killed, wounded or captured on the 20th, 1,690 on the 25th and 1,630 on the 24th. The all-time high was only a few months ago, 1,740 on 13 May.

[Mentalist]

The idea that Moscow will "let" Georgia take back Abkahazia and Ossetia is ludicrous. Primarily, b/c those people will fight the "re-integration" tooth and nail with or w/p Moscow, and GD's whole shtick is "vote for us to keep peace".

Whether GD manages to eke out a win or not will depend on the turnout tomorrow. If the turnout is large, it will become too risky to falsify the results, and realistically they are floating somewhere between 40-45%- primarily state employees, who make up about a third of the workforce. The anti-GD coalition is composed of 4 parties, and it's backed by the current President. Their goal is to take power away from GD, roll back all the anti-democratic laws that have been passed recently, and get the country ready for a new election in a year or so. Their big stick is the threat that Georgia will lose it's visa-less access to the EU if GD wins again and takes the country closer to Muscovy.



Attention is swinging inevitable away from the battlefield and into the global political context, and it's probably gonna stay there at least until the election outcome in the US is clear.

[Werthead]

Russia has withdrawn T-34 and IS-3 tanks from storage. Some reports this is for training purposes, they will not be sent directly to the front line, but it's still utterly absurd. The T-34 entered development in 1934 - hence the name - and entered service just before WWII. It was the absolutely outstanding tank of WWII, but obviously that was a long time ago. The IS-3 entered service later during WWII.

[Macros]

The second I saw you say T34 my brain thought, wait, wasn't that the tank that smashed the tigers?
Then I remembered that was in WW2.

[Mentalist]

Sounds like GD is going to pull a Maduro. And declare themselves winners with a 15% lead.

WHich means Georgian opposition is likely going to take to the streets tomorrow, since Ivanishvili basically said once he wins the election, he will outlaw the opposition, so it's a pretty zero-sum game.

[Werthead]

Macros, on 27 October 2024 - 01:13 AM, said:

The second I saw you say T34 my brain thought, wait, wasn't that the tank that smashed the tigers?
Then I remembered that was in WW2.

Upgunned T-34/85s did later in the war, yup.

[Werthead]

A group of North Korean defectors who subsequently worked for the South Korean government and military have volunteered to travel to Ukraine and working alongside the Ukrainian military. Their objective would be to encourage North Korean soldiers to surrender.

Japan is sending $3 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

Maksim Fedorchenko, a Russian solider from 2nd Assault Company, 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade, shot dead ten sleeping comrades in occupied territory in Zaporizhzhia. The day before, the deputy commander of the 810th Marine Brigade was shot three times in the heat by a private he was bullying.

Russia is re-focusing on the Lyman front, committing the 283rd and 488th Motorized Rifle Regiments to the attack. Ukrainian forces have held the line and inflicted significant losses. The Russians don't appear to have ready reinforcements, as they have instead recycled lightly-wounded troops back to the front line after only light medical treatment.

Ukraine has opened a somewhat unusual new front in the war by attacking distilleries. Three have been destroyed in the last week. Some distilleries have been dual-purposed into the production of chemicals needed for the war, which I assume are the targets, rather than Ukraine seeking to force Russia into sobriety and maybe peace.

Two deserters from the Russian army, Slavik and Dimon, have become social media stars for rapping about how bad life is on the frontline. Unclear how much penetration this is getting into the general Russian population.

The sewage system in Moscow malfunctioned today, sending a plume of faeces towering into the sky. The headlines write themselves.

The head of Rostec Corporation has warned that the current state of the Russian economy is perilous, and the interest rate rise on Friday could destroy the Russian economy (as could the inflation it was trying to bring under control).

Zelensky has been on the charm offensive in Indian media, saying that India enjoys the respect of both sides and Modi could help bring an end to the conflict on just terms.

Russian Bishop Vigano has confirmed that Kamala Harris serves Satan. She is not a woman, but a "posthuman entity from Gog and Magog's race." The Harris team has not responded yet.

[Werthead]

The Vladimir Putin University in Gudermes, Chechnya was attacked by unidentified drones and burst into flames. Ramzan Kadyrov is spitting fire over it.

A South Korean diplomatic-military delegation is reportedly heading to Europe to discuss matters with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and will then proceed to Kyiv for discussions with the Ukrainian government.

Russia has fined Google 2 undecillion rubles (an undecillion is a number with 36 zeroes after it) for banning pro-Russian channels. 2 undecillion rubles is 20 decillion dollars (a decillion is a number with merely 33 zeroes after it).

[Werthead]

South Korea has invited special representatives of the Ukrainian government to visit Seoul in the next couple of weeks, after their delegation visits Kyiv. Rumours are all over the place but the strongest rumour is that Seoul will lift its restrictions on ammunition supplies to Ukraine and will also discuss the sale of either retired or soon-to-be-retired equipment to Ukraine. South Korea is not talking about sending combat troops to fight in Ukraine at present.

Russia has apparently made various calls to Seoul and to the South Korean ambassador in Moscow and the general reply seems to be, "remove the North Korean troops and you will not have a problem. They stay, and you will have a problem" (not verbatim).

In an interesting speech, Lukashenko has said Belarus should have a seat at any negotiations to end the war, and wants security guarantees for Belarus to maintain its sovereignty. Lavrov was in the audience and seemed shocked, and started angrily shaking his head. Weird.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 31 October 2024 - 09:38 PM

[Mentalist]

 Werthead, on 29 October 2024 - 08:24 PM, said:

The Vladimir Putin University in Gudermes, Chechnya was attacked by unidentified drones and burst into flames. Ramzan Kadyrov is spitting fire over it.

A South Korean diplomatic-military delegation is reportedly heading to Europe to discuss matters with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and will then proceed to Kyiv for discussions with the Ukrainian government.

Russia has fined Google 2 undecillion rubles (an undecillion is a number with 36 zeroes after it) for banning pro-Russian channels. 2 undecillion rubles is 20 decillion dollars (a decillion is a number with merely 33 zeroes after it).

Does this mean Android will stop functioning in Muscovy?

[Werthead]

Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the state-owned Rostec, the biggest Russian arms company, has said that that the rising of interest rates to 21% has left the Russian economy "overheating." He has said that Rostec is not making any profit despite record orders and high production rates, and the company is losing money to the point of potential disaster. The head of the IMF has also sounded warning bells over the Russian economy.

The developer Samolet Group, one of Russia's biggest construction firms, is also on the cusp of going bankrupt. The government will have to step in and save it, because the company is listed as "systemically important" (like Rostec and Gazprom) and cannot fail. But Russia's finances can't extend to continuing the war and saving all of these companies simultaneously.

Several international bodies say they think the current real inflation rate in Russia is around 27% or higher (potentially catastrophic), whilst official Russian sources are saying it's around 8% (which is pretty bad but survivable). 

Germany has closed the Iranian General Consulates in Hamburg, Munich and Frankfurt. All 32 members of the Iranian staff in all three consulates have to leave, and the only Iranian official diplomatic mission in Germany will be the main embassy in Berlin. This is in response to the murder of German citizen Jamshid Sharmahd, apparently on the orders of the government in Tehran.

Ukraine has requested Washington DC to purchase the BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missile Block II, which has a range of 2,500km (1,550 miles). The entirety of Russia west of the Ural Mountains and even beyond would be in range. Hell, a large chunk of Iran would be in range. Unsurprisingly, Washington said no.

Ukraine has started that its own Hrim-2 ballistic missile with an estimate 500km range could be deployed within weeks.

Poland has requested permission to use its Patriot PAC-3 missiles to target any projectile within its range, regardless of what airspace it is flying over. This is to protect Poland from both accidental spillover and also a surprise attack by Russia, which might start with an apparent cruise missile strike on Ukraine but the missiles could veer to hit Polish AA systems at the last minute. The effect on the ground would be to put the western 20% or so of Ukraine under full Patriot protection, including the city of Lviv.

Russian front line troops are complaining about the quality of 82mm mortar shells, handed over to them by North Korea. Apparently only 20% of the mortar shells are useable, the rest have to be junked. Those that are useable have to be cleaned of rust thoroughly.

The BBC is reporting there is tremendous concern in Beijing over the Russia-North Korea axis and there may even have been behind-the-scenes attempts by Beijing to defuse or mitigate the alliance, for fear of either expanding the war in Ukraine into a general conflict, or starting a war (potentially nuclear) on the Korean peninsula.

The current Russian main offensive is against Kurakhove, north-west of Vuhledar and south of Pokrovsk. A Russian victory here would stabilise the front line, cut off the last indentations in the line that Ukraine had held before Vuhledar and might open a fresh axis of attack to start cutting off Pokrovsk from the SW, as the frontal assaults on Pokrovsk continue to be held off. Kyiv believes the effort over the last few weeks may mark the "strongest" Russian offensive since the start of this year.

The 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade has repelled a Russian mechanized assault on their position. Russia deployed 22 armoured vehicles, 14 of which were immediately destroyed. 6 tanks were lost in one of the more significant tank losses in the war for a while.

Ukrainian kamikaze drones seem to be having significant successes in destroying Russian recon drones, leaving some areas of the front under-surveilled. Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones also seem to have had some success in jamming Russian radars, destroying several Russian AA systems and fortified positions along the front. Baba Yagas are huge and able to carrying significant payloads of multiple bombs and mines, so them being able to penetrate Russian territory is crucial for them to be used to maximum effectiveness.

Similarly, after months of apparently only operating at around 10% effectiveness, Ukrainian HIMARS seem to have overcome Russian jamming efforts, with a number of recent successful strikes. An S-300 was destroyed near Mospyne, Donetsk, whilst an attack on Russia's Skadovsk, Kherson garrison killed 11 and wounded 14 Russian soldiers.

Kadyrov has said he plans to raise several battalions totalling 84,000 troops in Chechnya to fight in Ukraine. Lavrov has fiercely criticised Turkey for continuing to send military aid to Ukraine whilst purporting friendship with Moscow.

Russia has seized the most territory in a week than it has managed in a year. However, a large chunk of this territory was in Kursk, where the Ukrainians agreed that their strategy of trying to hold open fields was pointless, and fell back on better-prepared strongpoints. The rest was mostly in the area between Vuhledar and Kurakhove, which was within an arc of mostly-surrounded Ukrainian territory. However, there are some indications of political discontent in Kyiv, where Zelensky's victory plan was seen as overstated and some Ukrainian opinion polls show a slight shift to favouring talks with Russia. These are still slight and a minority, but the biggest shift since the start of the war. 

One claim that the Russian-Ukrainian artillery advantage has fallen to 2:1, the lowest of the war to date, since the destruction of several mass stockpiles of Russian and North Korean artillery. Some Ukrainian sources indicating that this is very optimistic, but they have noted an easing of Russian artillery strikes in some sectors, with Russia trying to leverage more drone strikes instead.

There have been two Ukrainian strikes on the vicinity of the Kerch Strait in the past week, with Russian AA systems and warehouses targeted.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has held telephone discussions with Zelensky, which were apparently warm and constructive. Seoul shares Kyiv's deep concerns over Russia-North Korean cooperation, which Seoul views as a potential threat to stability on the Korean peninsula. South Korea is now considering supplying lethal aid to Ukraine, which will likely be enacted as soon as they see evidence of North Korean troops engaged in direct combat operations. Ukraine has apparently already sought permission to target and destroy transit points on Russian territory being used to send North Korean troops to the front, which the US has apparently turned down. A Russian Su-34 has been shot down according to Telegram sources, with the crew killed, unclear where.

Ukrainian frontline soldiers have confirmed they will be following the US Presidential election this week between operations, knowing it could be more important for the war than them fighting on the front line.