[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 21 May 2024 - 10:24 PM, said:

Ukrainian attacks in Russian-occupied areas have continued, with strikes on an ammunition and fuel dump in Dovzhansk and a military target near Mariupol.

The Russian military is using Telegram to contact soldiers on the front and give them dispersion orders when enemy attacks are incoming. They have warned that Ukraine can now strike up to 300km behind the front lines (!) and Russian soldiers should practice dispersing without giving up territory. Responses along the lines of "how?" seem to be commonplace.

Russian milbloggers reporting that Ukraine has achieved artillery superiority on the Kharkiv front, and warning of the potential for a Ukrainian counter-offensive. That would be quite an achievement.

Some claims - I would caution that these numbers are unconfirmed, and it's unclear what precise metric is being used - that Ukraine assembled 58 battalions to defend the area, expecting a massed attack from ~75-100 equivalent Russian formations, but Russia only attacked with 51, and several of these have been mauled so badly they effectively do not exist. Some of the Ukrainian battalions have been damaged as well, but nowhere near as bad. Ukraine may have manpower and artillery superiority on the front, creating the conditions for a counter-offensive. Russian reinforcements do not seem to exist, either they're not on that front or they never existed in the first place. The Chasiv Yar offensive seems to be collapsing at the same time.

The irony is that there's not very much territory to counter-offensive into. They can kick Russia back across the border but an invasion of Russian territory would be...bizarre, and also not militarily useful in holding the Donbas. Reversing course and sending some of those troops back to the Kreminna, Robotyne and Avdiivka fronts might be preferable.

I mean, crossing the border to dash across the Urazove gap (while ramsacking the Valuyki staging area) to retake Troit'ke and flank the Svatove-Kreminna axis would be the logical move, if the symbolic "thou shalt not cross into canonical orc territory" prohibition wasn't a thing.....

[Werthead]

Interesting analysis of Russian losses from a Russian former general who fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Russia has lost the equivalent of an entire army group in Ukraine and almost an entire second group. He judges Ukrainian claims of 470,000 killed or injured, with maybe 50% killed, as credible, pointing out that casualties in Ukraine in two years are ten times greater than casualties in Afghanistan in ten years. The small Udmurt Republic, part of the Russian Federation, whose record-keeping is usually good, only lost 80 troops KIA in Afghanistan, but over 800 in Ukraine. He also judges Russian morale to be rock-bottom.

He is a long-standing critic of Putin, so that might be colouring some of the analysis.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Hopefully this is hyperbole:

Quote

This Could Be the Moment Putin Wins the War in Ukraine

Russia's push into Kharkiv is moving at a pace not seen since the start of the war. Ukraine may not be strong enough to hold off another powerful push from Putin's forces.

Spoiler

[...] As Ukraine's military desperately tries to find new recruits, it is also facing an unprecedented Russian counter-offensive for which it had not been properly prepared. [...]

[...] some analysts [...] fear that Ukraine won't be able to hold back [...] the Russian army this time around, especially if they attack on other fronts at the same time as they are pushing into Kharkiv.

[...] it could set up an opportunity for Russia to take control of all of eastern Ukraine[...] it could be all but impossible for Kyiv to regain control of its entire territory, not least since we could be a matter of months away from the return of [Kaiser] Trump, who is likely to push for a negotiated settlement at the earliest opportunity.

This Could Be the Moment Putin Wins the War in Ukraine (thedailybeast.com)

Not too fond of some of the language in that article---calling the Russian army's penetration "progress", referring to "the might of the Russian army", etc. But English makes that all too easy and reflexive (OTOH all the quasi-synonyms do offer extra room to be reflective, relative to many other languages anyway)....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 24 May 2024 - 01:05 PM

[Mentalist]

Risks of them taking a 2-million city remain unlikely atm

The "Unprecedented progress" is *checks notes* 6-8 km from the border.
Half of which was grey zone. Supported by artillery positioned across the border. Which the UAF isn't allowed to shoot at.

I'm not going to say they can't possibly make progress; but what is safe to say is that they are currently burning through their not-quite-amassed reserves in a way that definitely doesn't inspire confidence for a long war.

[Werthead]

Azath Vitr (D, on 24 May 2024 - 01:04 PM, said:

Hopefully this is hyperbole:
Not too fond of some of the language in that article---calling the Russian army's penetration "progress", referring to "the might of the Russian army", etc. But English makes that all too easy and reflexive (OTOH all the quasi-synonyms do offer extra room to be reflective, relative to many other languages anyway)....

TDB has been down on Ukraine's chances in the war all along, it's been quite strange.

In general, media reporting on the war has been poor, and most amateur reporting has been prone to hyperbole and propaganda. Some of the better reporting has been by specialised experts on the area and by OSINT sources that manage not to get suckered by false information.

The general agreement seems to be that this Russian offensive has been hugely undermanned for that was needed: 30,000-50,000 troops were assigned to a mission that needed 100,000 on the lower end. The casualties they've suffered have already been pretty astonishing, with 1200-1300 Russian casualties per day being recorded for some days of the last two weeks, contributing to a casualty level 20% higher than last year (despite last year featuring the bloody and stressful attack on Bakhmut). Their gains along the border were broad but lacked depth, and they've gotten bogged down in fighting for Vovchansk rather than advancing significantly beyond it by now, as was the plan. Ukraine has also rushed both men and material to the front more quickly than expected; some signs are that Ukraine may have achieved manpower and artillery superiority over the front (it already had drone superiority).

There could still be a breakthrough on this front, and some concerns that an additional reinforcement formation Russia has been training in central Russia for the last few weeks could suddenly be rushed to the front. That formation would be limited in size and nonexistent in experience, but they could serve as occupying troops to free up the veteran troops to return to the offensive. There's doubts about that though.

[Werthead]

Ukraine's MiGs have been updated to carry 8 GBU-39 SDB precision glide bombs. These are superior to Russian glide bombs and can be launched from several dozen miles from the target. Ukraine has limited glide bomb capability, but their current systems are short-range, so can only work where Russian AA has been significantly attritioned or moved away (at the moment, Robotyne and some areas of the Kherson front). This upgrade should allow them to launch at targets on the front lines even in contested areas with AA 20-odd miles behind the front (Russia does not dare move them any further forward).

Russia, meanwhile, has responded to military difficulties by bombing a shopping centre in Kharkiv.

[Werthead]

Some very weird stuff floating around Russian Telegram, particularly mil-Telegram, and some very odd events in the last couple of days.

The 58th Combined Arms Army, the formation formerly led by Major-General Popov, has apparently refused to follow new deployment orders. The 58th is currently in a reach echelon line near Melitopol, south of the Robotyne front. Some suggestion that they've been held in reserve for an offensive action on that front to retake Robotyne. With 20,000 troops, they're a fairly sizeable force. The 58th reportedly wanted to join Wagner's rebellion last year but Popov talked them down, and they are not taking Popov's arrest and trial in Moscow well. Popov was going to be sent to prison ahead of trial but after this report broke in Moscow, his intermediate holding location was changed abruptly to house arrest. The 20th Combined Arms Army has also apparently been holding ad hoc meetings on supporting the 58th, they're based in a rear position near Lyman, possibly in reserve for a push on the Kreminna front. Both armies are well-positioned to simply turn around and sod off, or take a nice long drive towards Moscow.

This will probably blow over in a couple of days but some Russian Telegram channels are starting to sound worried about the possibility of another Wagner Rebellion, but on a larger scale.

Wagner mercenaries got into a war of words with local criminals in Chalyabinsk which escalated to them beating one another up with bats, and then a bunch more of the bandits rocked up with guns and shot several of the Wagner mercs (unclear if any fatally). Some of the Wagner troops returned fire with weapons and are now threatening to "burn down" the city if the criminals do not surrender to them.

Around 60 men aged 18-26 were grabbed off the streets of Moscow and taken to a recruiting station. One of them managed to get a call out to his parents and they rocked up with a bunch of the other men's parents as well. They surrounded the station and threatened to storm it if their kids were not released, but it appears that most had already been taken away by coach directly to the front. Some stragglers may have been let go. Shades of what happened during the Afghan War.

Sky News has reported that Russia is producing 4x as much artillery ammo as Ukraine and its allies. However, it was pointed out that Sky was for some reason counting all tube and mortar and proper artillery ammo from Russia, Iran and North Korea, whilst just NATO artillery ammo for Ukraine. It's closer to twice as much from Russia (still more, obviously), but doesn't factor in the much greater failure rate for Russian munitions (especially the outsourced crap from North Korea).

Russia has lost 8 Su-25s in the last three weeks, with the latest shot down by a MANPAD over the front.

[Werthead]

Bild has published a report that Ukraine used Patriot missiles to shoot down two Mi-8s, one Su-34 and one Su-35 over Russian territory in May 2023. Berlin and Washington reportedly threatened Kyiv that they would block future Patriot battery and interceptor deliveries if that happened again. Since then Russia has moved its aircraft within Patriot range of the border to bombard Ukrainian targets with glide bombs with apparent complete impunity.

This seems like a tactical leak from Ukraine to the German paper to encourage the momentum of the "let Ukraine hit Russia" narrative, which seems likely to see the restrictions on use of weapons against attacks from Russian soil lifted in the near-ish future. Biden is the impediment here and the political pressure he is on is growing significantly.

Russian forces in Vovchansk are encountering a significant problem with Ukrainian drones dropping anti-personnel mines around their strong points overnight: forces reinforcing and resupplying points have been crippled or killed by mines despite clearing out the area the previous day. Needless to say, this is not doing wonders for Russian morale.

Belgium has agreed to provide Ukraine with 30 F-16 fighters, raising the total number pledged to Ukraine to 80. Zelensky was in Belgium today to sign a long-term security agreement, adding to those recently signed with most European NATO members.

After some major setbacks on the front, the Russians resumed offensive operations on the Chasiv Yar front with a large mechanised assault into the eastern side of the city. However, once again they ran into prepared Ukrainian positions, with leading vehicles disabled by mines and the rest hit by drone and artillery fire, the old "Vuhledar Tactic." Because of the open countryside, the Russians managed to fall back without a total massacre, but they did lose a rare and very expensive T-90M.

[Tiste Simeon]

You've mentioned a couple of times that Ukraine wants to be "allowed" to hit Russia, but others (the US predominantly) aren't allowing them? Surely it's war and they can go on the offensive if they want?

[Werthead]

Tiste Simeon, on 28 May 2024 - 06:55 PM, said:

You've mentioned a couple of times that Ukraine wants to be "allowed" to hit Russia, but others (the US predominantly) aren't allowing them? Surely it's war and they can go on the offensive if they want?

Ukraine has been hitting Russian territory almost since the first day of the war, with their own Tochka and Neptune long-range missiles, sea-launched missiles and some longer-ranged, Ukrainian-built (or adapted-from-Russian-stock) glide bombs. But when it comes to western weapons systems like Patriot, ATACMS, HIMARS etc, this has all been provided with the limitation, imposed by Ukraine's western allies, that it not be used to hit Russian territory (recognised as pre-2014 Russian territory, so they can use these weapons to hit Crimea as much as they want). If they do so, shipments of such weapons will be halted. Several countries, including France and the UK, have lifted these limitations and the onus is now on America to do so.

Ukraine's generals have shown that they could see Russian soldiers gathering in force on the border before launching the Kharkiv offensive, and they could have hit those concentrations before the Russians crossed the border, disrupting or maybe even halting the operation, instead of having to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

[Werthead]

Woah, Sweden has agreed to provide Ukraine with two Saab 340 AE&C (AWACS-adjacent) aircraft. These aircraft have been designed with interoperability with the F-16 and will extend the targeting and strike range of Ukraine's incoming F-16s significantly. That kinda came out of nowhere.

Sweden is also donating AMRAAMs and PVB 302 APCs.

The Czech Republic's shell procurement deliveries will begin imminently, with the first shells due to arrive this week.

Ukraine has been using its M1A1s in a new fire support role, sending shells into the Russian positions at the Avdiivka coke plant from several miles away.

A report on how individual Ukrainian units, even soldiers, performed insane acts of bravery to hold the Russians on the border long enough for their fellow units to form proper defensive lines.

[Tiste Simeon]

Werthead, on 28 May 2024 - 08:12 PM, said:

Tiste Simeon, on 28 May 2024 - 06:55 PM, said:

You've mentioned a couple of times that Ukraine wants to be "allowed" to hit Russia, but others (the US predominantly) aren't allowing them? Surely it's war and they can go on the offensive if they want?

Ukraine has been hitting Russian territory almost since the first day of the war, with their own Tochka and Neptune long-range missiles, sea-launched missiles and some longer-ranged, Ukrainian-built (or adapted-from-Russian-stock) glide bombs. But when it comes to western weapons systems like Patriot, ATACMS, HIMARS etc, this has all been provided with the limitation, imposed by Ukraine's western allies, that it not be used to hit Russian territory (recognised as pre-2014 Russian territory, so they can use these weapons to hit Crimea as much as they want). If they do so, shipments of such weapons will be halted. Several countries, including France and the UK, have lifted these limitations and the onus is now on America to do so.

Ukraine's generals have shown that they could see Russian soldiers gathering in force on the border before launching the Kharkiv offensive, and they could have hit those concentrations before the Russians crossed the border, disrupting or maybe even halting the operation, instead of having to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

Thanks for the concise explanation! Its a bonkers time where they go "here's a bunch of high tech weaponry, please be careful how far you fire it..."

[Macros]

You can run with the scissors, but only on the left hand side of the kitchen

[Werthead]

Sweden and Finland have lifted all restrictions on their weapons being used on Russian territory. Germany and the US are apparently developing a new plan that their weapons can be used in direct strikes on the sources of attacks (airfields, missile launchers etc) from Russian territory, and in a "buffer area" along the border where Russian artillery, drones etc are operated from. That's a bit wishy-washy but better than now.

Meanwhile, 20 weapons have apparently hit the air defence batteries along the Crimean side of the Kerch Bridge. Unclear on the extent of the damage. Ukraine has been incrementally destroying AA weapon all across the peninsula, and a few people have pointed out they're clearing a path that could be used by Storm Shadows/SCALPS and drones to actually take out the bridge (ATACMS are like concentrated shotgun blasts, which is great for shredding AA batteries to pieces, not so great for collapsing bridge-support pillars). Unclear if this is ATACMS in this current attack, it's at the upper limit of their range.

Whether this is actually the push to destroy the bridge or a further degrading move remains to be seen.

[Werthead]

To confuse things further, Danish-donated F-16s may be used to hit targets in Russia. Belgian-donated F-16s may not be used to hit targets in Russia. Ukraine probably has a spreadsheet to keep track of this.

Putin's personal residence in the Altai Republic, Siberia, burned down today. Unclear why or how.

The attack on Kerch last night seems to have been diversionary: whilst ATACMS and aerial drones engaged air defences, Magura V5 sea drones sank four small Russian combat vessels and then destroyed a transport ferry docked next to the Kerch bridge. A second ferry was holed by ATACMS fire but not fatally.

A Russian paratrooper in the 217th VDV Airborne Regiment apparently snapped and shot dead three fellow soldiers with a machine gun before fleeing. Apparently he had been subjected to psychological and physical bullying.

Multiple Russian airfields deeper inside Russian territory have apparently been told to fortify their hangers in anticipation of long-range Ukrainian attacks. Marinovka Airfield, which is 300km from Ukraine and home to SU-24 and 34 bombers, have already completed a dozen hardened aircraft shelters.

Some rather furious complaints in Belgorod as Russian aircraft managed to drop multiple glide bombs on Russian military positions, open roads and several civilian houses on the Russian side of the border. Apparently 73 bombs have fallen on Russian territory in this area since the start of March, due to pilot paranoia about not getting too close to Ukrainian AA systems.

In a meeting with Macron, Scholz has apparently confirmed that Ukraine can hit Russian territory in self-defence with German-supplied weapons.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

As if Trump's guilty verdicts weren't enough good news...

Quote

Breaking news: Biden to allow Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia

Spoiler

Because Kharkiv is so close to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine repeatedly pressed Mr. Biden and his aides for the right to strike back inside Russia. Mr. Biden deflected those requests for months, concerned that using American weapons could escalate the conflict — and put the United States into a direct confrontation with Russia.

When he relented, it was in the most narrowly prescribed way. The permission from Mr. Biden is intended solely for Ukraine to strike military sites in Russia being used to attack the Kharkiv area, U.S. officials said. Attacks from Russia in other regions [...] cannot be answered with the use of American weapons.

Under Pressure, Biden Allows Ukraine to Use U.S. Weapons to Strike Inside Russia - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

... but it could be better....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 30 May 2024 - 10:31 PM

[Werthead]

Russia has suffered another serious defeat in Crimea. 3 soldiers got high and attacked a civilian in Alushta, who promptly killed two of them and severely injured the third with a knife. Crimean civilians in areas where Russian soldiers are based fairly commonly equip themselves with knives, for some reason (cough).

19 soldiers from Snake Island who were captured on the first day of the invasion have returned home as part of a major prisoner exchange, the first in some months.

The Kavkaz oil depot on the Russian side of the Kerch Strait has been hit. Three large storage tanks were destroyed and all the Russian vessels in the harbour have retreated. A Nebo-SVU long-range radar was also destroyed. I'm not sure Russia has many of these things left, they cost $150 million a pop.

Ukraine has released footage from heavy combat around Urozhaine over the past couple of weeks. Russia has launched multiple large attacks, including some of the most significant tank assaults we've seen in months. All were beaten back with heavy losses.

Ukrainian drones have been active over Tatarstan, with several shot down. It appears most of the drones are reconnaissance vehicles, possibly scoping out drone factories and radar systems.

Some indications that Ukraine has been testing it's new, long-range, ground-attack variant of the Neptune antiship missile. The Neptune has been one of Ukraine's most successful home-built weapons systems and a new variant with a range of over 400km is being developed. One idea seems to be to use this to stand in for US long-range weapons if Trump gets into the White House and cuts off aid; production might be shared with multiple eastern European countries to provide a steady supply to Ukraine. NATO has also been informally discussing "Trump-proofing" Ukraine with a further $100 billion assistance package from non-US members to be delivered in 2025, although that would require countries like Germany, France, Britain and Italy to stump up quite large amounts of money apiece, beyond what they're doing already.

Ukraine and Russia exchanged massive aerial assaults last night, with 80+ drones and missiles fired at Ukraine. The majority were intercepted. Ukraine launched a more focused attacking using 20-40 missile and drones at Russian military targets, bases and possible troop concentrations in Belgorod Oblast.

Russia also launched a glide bomb attack, dropping 5 high-explosive glide bombs on, er, Belgorod as well. That brings the number of times that Russia has bombed itself in the last two months up to 78.

[Werthead]

A Russian unit on the Vovchansk front simply gave up and surrendered. 60 Russian POWs taken in one go. Surprise from the Ukrainians, normally they have to wipe entire units out almost to a man and then maybe take a few prisoners, often too wounded to fight.

Current Russian trials of MoD personnel are rather wild, with claims that Shoigu siphoned off $100 million in equipment from the defence budget and sold it to foreign buyers rather than send it to the front line in Ukraine. Also growing evidence - publicly made! - that Prigozhin's claims of being starved by MoD support were accurate and this led to his rebellion. Putin may be forced to make further moves against Shoigu. May also be preparations to scapegoat him for the failure of the operation if Russia has to wind down the offensive (not on the cards just yet).

NATO has constructed or is constructing five "rapid-deployment land corridors" across Europe, to allow up to 300,000 troops from the US and western Europe to reinforce Poland and the Baltic within hours of a Russian offensive beginning. These land corridors have logistics dumps and will be cleared of civilian traffic.

HIMARS and ATACMS going wild behind Russian lines. Logistics warehouses, barracks and fuel and ammo depots in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts are being hit heavily. The Russians are having to start pulling back their supply depots out of HIMARS range as they have in the Donbas, but out of ATACMS range is almost painfully difficult, forcing the last leg of resupply to be by truck over the better part of 300km, during which time they can still be intercepted by mobile HIMARS shots and drones.

Russian military wives brought their children to protest in front of the Russian Defence Ministry in Moscow, and publicly taunted police to arrest them. The police held back though and the protest was allowed to proceed peacefully. The event was small. A Russian wife raised a small protest online after her veteran husband was reactivated and sent back to the front...despite losing both legs in combat.

Confirmation from the Ukrainian "Wild Hornets" drone squad that their drones are capable of going into self-guided mode when jamming kicks in and the operator is lost from the system. The drone continues tracking the last designated target and destroys it regardless.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 04 June 2024 - 09:04 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

A reality TV star and [...] witch who gained fame by supposedly using magic spells to boost Vladimir Putin's ratings has been arrested by Russia's security services[...] on charges of extremism and offending the feelings of religious believers[...]

[She] is a former star of the kooky Battle of the Psychics reality show and the leader of a group called the Empire of the Strongest Witches [...] An entire section of the group's website features certificates and letters addressed to Polyn thanking her for providing "humanitarian support" to Russian troops. She was also praised for providing both Russian troops and their families with "psychological support."

More than a dozen videos filmed by Russian soldiers thanking [her] for her help also show that she personally signed several projectiles to be fired into Ukraine.

'Putin's Favorite Witch' Alena Polyn Suddenly Falls Foul of the Kremlin (thedailybeast.com)

Bet she's hoping she doesn't get launched into the front... "use the witch as a human shield, she's invincible! Or a blood sacrifice! ... just like us all?"

Quote

Archpriest of the Russian Orthodox Church Artemiy Vladimirov decided to up the ante and claimed that soldiers fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine [have been] get[ting] resurrected after they get killed.

Spoiler

[A TV host said] he often speaks to soldiers [...] and has been trying to convince them that there is no such thing as death. Describing one of his recent conversations with a Russian soldier, the host proudly said, "Maybe I'm boasting but I was successfully able to explain that death does not exist. He was encouraged by that!"

Vladimirov played along and replied, "[...] Right now, there are many wonderful testimonies of Christ's victory over death. My wife sends me many military testimonies and video clips. Before Lent, I watched a video about one Chinese man who participated in the special military operation. A bullet hit him in the stomach, destroying all of his insides. He died from this and then was resurrected. [...] Christ is visiting the soldiers who laid down their lives for their brethren, he is visiting them as his brothers, as blessed martyrs."

[The TV host] said that Vladimirov's tale of an alleged physical resurrection is an example of what should be a constant topic of conversation. He surmised, "All of us talk on the Internet, these stories should be constantly told. Death does not exist."

Panicked Russia Is Now Telling Reluctant Soldiers They Will Be Resurrected (thedailybeast.com)

Death is a postmodern Marxist lie! And that's why those two'll both be fighting on the front sending people to their deaths.... (But if a Russian soldier falls in a forest and no one recovers the body... did it really happen?)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 05 June 2024 - 08:26 PM

[Mentalist]

To be fair, it was supposedly a Chinese volunteer who was resurrected. Him and his family had since embraced the Orthodox faith.

So the moral of the story is, God favors the Chinese, so Russia made the correct choice "rejecting the godless West"

The Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov Oblast' appears to have been droned again. That's the closest source of fuel production to the frontlines.


Also, a Black Sea Fleet tug boat was taken out by a sea drone in western Crimea. It appears the orcs have sent a bunch of ships back to Crimea from Novorossiysk, so hopefully they get an explosive welcome in the next few weeks.