[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 30 December 2023 - 09:16 PM, said:

That was the largest Ukrainian (?) strike on a Russian city, with more than 70 drones and missiles fired at targets in and around Belgorod. Ukraine has claimed it was targeting military sites, the Russians are claiming civilian targets were hit. However, there's also claims that many of the munitions said to have been used could not have hit targets at that range, and some Russian S-300 air defence missiles apparently missed their targets and came down on the city (some alleged videos showing missiles going straight up, hitting nothing and coming down again). There are also some claims of a false flag attack, as one hotel was hit which apparently is used by western and other journalists which Ukraine had been informed about. A lot of confusion going on there, especially as Belgorod is not hugely strategically vital by itself.

What is bizarre is an apparently pre-prepared press release in which they confusingly called "Belgorod" "Belgrade."

Western media (NYT especially) is fucking up big time on this, publishing footage of Ukrainian cities being hit to illustrate alleged damage to Belgorod.

The "hotel full of Western Journalists" is actually in Kharkiv and was hit in a "retaliation strike".

They are claiming Ukraine used Czech MRLS "Vampire" to shell the city (a GRAD analogue).... except that's got a range of 20 km, and Belgorod is 35 km away from the border, so the math is beyond faulty.
A lot of shadiness with this thing. Wouldn't pay too much attention until there's some more independently verifiable info, b/c Russian officials will always lie.

[Macros]

At what stage does anyone outright say this was Russia?

[Mentalist]

Orcs are trying to saturate our anti air with massive attacks for 5 days in a row now.


They also continue whining about bombardments of Belgorod.

[Werthead]

Russian Su-34 destroyed on the ground some 1600km from the Ukrainian border. A Ukrainian intelligence agent apparently just sauntered over and blew it up.

[Mentalist]

UAF's been hitting Crimea and Novorossiysk hard for the past few days. Unclear if any major hits are getting through, though.

HUR claims to have made another incursion into Belgorod Oblast', attacking a squad-sized fortified position close to the border. Most likely, this is just posturing to try to divert forces from the Donbas frontline, where they enjoy shortest supply lines that give them advantages they don't have in the S.

The bridgehead on the L bank around Krynky continues to hold, and orc voenkors are whining that they are at a disadvantage in terms of drones and EW in the sector.

At the same time, without a massive influx of ammo it's unlikely that we can regain Offensive initiative. US State Dept is revealing Intel that North Korea is giving the orcs ballistic missiles that they are using already, and they are close to finalizing a deal with Iran. There does not seem to be any strong equalizer response in the works from the West atm. We'll have to see if UA's homegrown drone production efforts can actually hold the balance from tilting.

[Werthead]

Bradleys in Ukrainian service shredding a T-90, the best tank in the Russia inventory (the T-14 being mostly theoretical).

When your best tank loses to enemy IFVs, that's a bit embarrassing.

[Werthead]

Because the St. Petersburg authorities and its own fire department still can't agree that maybe they should try putting out a fire, the Wildberries warehouse fire was still going 27 hours after it started, although it seems to have finally been dampened by the cold weather.

Moscow will have rolling blackouts "not to exceed 12 hours a day" from 14 January to 31 March 2024 due to massive infrastructure failures of the main electric grid. Probably not the best thing to happen during the election (if the election meant anything, but still). The temperature today in Moscow is -22 C. Rostov has also been experiencing rolling blackouts for the last few days.

Apparently there's a brewing scandal in Russia with at least hundreds and maybe thousands of Iranian and Russian drones earmarked for the front disappearing from depots and mysteriously reappearing on websites for sale. This is coming as Ukraine's simultaneous domestic production and import of drones has reached new heights, with very heavy drone strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

There's a very unpleasant image going around of a Russian tank apparently covered in corpses. The crew strung up Russian bodies onto the hull to act as a "meatshield" against enemy fire.

Ukraine carried out a limited counterattack at Avdiivka, destroying a Russian position that was being used as a field HQ and then occupying the area.

In one engagement in the area a few days ago, a Russian IFV was destroyed and three soldiers disembarked. Clearly wounded, with Ukrainian forces approaching, they decided to shoot themselves dead rather than be taken prisoner. Some other Russian POWs captured recently have said they have been told to kill themselves rather than surrender and officers have given them graphic descriptions of what would happen to them if they were captured by Ukrainian forces, which did not pan out.

Ukrainian intelligence also uncovered a Russian report than an entire 40-man Russian platoon has absconded behind the lines after sustained artillery and drone bombardments and fled to Crimea, with Russia having to divert significant numbers of troops and police to tracking them down.

Rumours circulating that Gerasimov was killed in the Ukrainian Storm Shadow/SCALP strike on the Russian airbase at Saky, Crimea on 5 January. Ukrainian command has ruled this out, but Gerasimov has not been seen in public since 29 December, marking his longest period out of the limelight since the start of the invasion. Some others suggesting that Putin may be lining him up as a scapegoat for the invasion not proceeding to plan, since he seems unable to punish Shoigu (despite Shoigu being inexperienced at military command and Gerasimov being reasonably well-regarded for the operations he had direct command over in Chechnya, including a rather un-Russian commitment to battlefield discipline). General feeling is that Gerasimov is likely still breathing.

A fourth round of talks has taken place in Davos with 83 countries participating. The goal is to create a peace plan which is robust enough to garner even larger, widespread support in the UN and to then put additional political pressure on Russia to agree to it. Unsurprisingly, Russia has been unmoved by this process. Most notably, Brazil, India and South Africa participated in the talks and apparently made constructive contributions; these countries retain socio-economic ties with Russia and a degree of influence that could be useful. Switzerland, which has been hosting the talks, has said it's important to get countries outside of the "usual suspects" to help formulate and agree to a process to end the war, based on the principle of territorial integrity. Interestingly, and this maybe Switzerland trying to make lemonade out of lemons and attract the attention of countries outside the traditional west, they want to create a conflict resolution process which could be applied to other conflicts, perhaps a nod to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

[Mentalist]

Patriot is doing all right. An AWACS plane, A-50 took a nosedive into the Azov Sea. At most the orcs have 8 operational planes like this left- though rumour has it, they only had 3 flightworthy ones before this happened.

An IL-22 mobile command centre also got nailed, but managed to make it back to Anapa (across the sea). This one isn't the first one of its kind, though, since Prigozhin's AA took one down during their March of Justice in the summer.

The orcs don't really have anything to say to their pilots who got to keep flying into the danger zone- so their solution is to say this was... friendly fire.

Combined with the missile strikes on the radar sites in W Crimea a few weeks back, striking the airborne radar today is a good next move in trying to clear the skies in the S.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 14 January 2024 - 05:34 PM, said:

...A fourth round of talks has taken place in Davos with 83 countries participating. The goal is to create a peace plan which is robust enough to garner even larger, widespread support in the UN and to then put additional political pressure on Russia to agree to it. Unsurprisingly, Russia has been unmoved... they want to create a conflict resolution process which could be applied to other conflicts, perhaps a nod to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

That's the crux, isn't it? Sanctions are a very nice idea, but most of the targets don't care about the sanctions and/or don't care about the impact on their population. It leaves the UN even more toothless than usual. Condemn, censure, sanction... no one who matters cares. Any conflict resolution process just becomes a PR tool for the party who rushes to agree knowing the other side never will, or an empty hope for a party trying to end a conflict they cannot possibly 'win'.

[Lady Bliss]

This sounds far fetched to me.

https://news.yahoo.c...-001648870.html

Surely Russia doesn’t have the resources to go further than Ukraine.

[Mentalist]

Lady Bliss, on 16 January 2024 - 04:14 AM, said:

This sounds far fetched to me.

https://news.yahoo.c...-001648870.html

Surely Russia doesn’t have the resources to go further than Ukraine.

About 40% or Latvia's population are Russian-speakers, many of them refusing to learn Latvian and being considered "non-voting citizens".

The numbers are a bit smaller in Estonia, iirc

The idea is to spark "civil conflict" between the titular government and "the oppressed Russian minorities" at which point "spontaneously formed self-defense militia forces" would spark something, testing to see what NATO's reaction would be. Germans are predicting this would be during the peak of the US election to delay immediate response- which may give them an opening to "reinforce the militias" and "protect the lives and rights of Russian speakers" in the Baltic states.

[Werthead]

Bild did report in 2014 that Russia was going to launch an attack on NATO the following year, so I'd be cautious about accepting that. However, obviously the situation right now is much more threatening overall than 2014, and if Russia was to try to move into the Baltics they would likely proceed in this "grey zone" fashion. That might work or it might not: several attempts to trigger a similar crisis in Moldova have petered out after a few days of tension.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 16 January 2024 - 07:02 PM, said:

Bild did report in 2014 that Russia was going to launch an attack on NATO the following year, so I'd be cautious about accepting that. However, obviously the situation right now is much more threatening overall than 2014, and if Russia was to try to move into the Baltics they would likely proceed in this "grey zone" fashion. That might work or it might not: several attempts to trigger a similar crisis in Moldova have petered out after a few days of tension.

Moldova is in a weird position, because Transnistria and Russian military presence there continues to exist by virtue of Sandu not calling up Zelensky and requesting assistance in restoring Moldova's territorial integrity. There's a grand total of 3 BTGs in Transnistria, and the native population predominantly holds both Ukrainian and Romanian passports, so it's unlikely to to put up fierce resistance when UAF can literally blast the entire landmass with artillery across the border.

In case of any armed pro-Russian insurrection, this restriction is likely to dissipate. Meanwhile, Romania can cover basically all of Moldova's airspace with a single Patriot battery.

otoh, the Baltic states are wedged between Belarus, Kaliningrad and Russian mainland. Much more opportunity for cross-border hybrid warfare shenanigans.

[the broken]

Quote

German newspaper BILD published classified documents outlining how Germany plans to prepare for an offensive

Watch the phrasing. Defence ministries prepare for every situation they can think of, that's their job. Doesn't mean they think it's likely. Britain had a WW2 plan to make an iceberg aircraft carrier. Very easy for the paper then to take the scariest plan and run with it, pretending the fact that they are preparing for it means that it's about to happen.

[Werthead]

It's also worth remembering that Bild is a tabloid. It's nearest UK equivalent is The Sun. It likes to run stories on THE SCARY THING THAT WILL KILL YOU NEXT alongside gossip and celebrity scandals.

[Werthead]

Brewing discontent in Bashkortostan (a Russian region near the border with Kazakhstan), where a prominent Bashkir activist has been jailed for promoting the Bashkir language and culture. Thousands of protestors have turned out at the courthouse for the last few days. He's been jailed for four years and riot police have been deployed to disperse the protestors, although some apparently left the scene upon realising they were badly outnumbered. Some riot police that tried to deploy their batons were disarmed. Reporting on the protests has been banned. Bashkir wives and mothers have taken to social media to call upon their sons and husbands to put down their guns in Ukraine and return home to defend their homeland. Although this is unlikely turn into something more major, it seems to be making the Kremlin freak out a bit. 

The Severskaya Police Station in Krasnodar Krai has been burned down by anti-Putin Russian partisans. Partisans have also destroyed railway relay cabinets in Saratov, Yaroslavl and Derzhinsk in the last few weeks.

A $50 million polyester factory in Shakhty, just north of Rostov-on-Done, has exploded. Unclear if it was a weapons strike, or who caused it (seems a bit of a low-priority target for Ukrainian forces).

A Russian penal unit near the front has reportedly descended into anarchy: commanders beat up some of the inmates for a laugh, but were taken by surprise when the former inmates tied them up and beat the crap out of them. The inmates took shelter in a secure room that was then broken into by other Russian soldiers with machine guns. The outcome is unclear. Probably not ideal when there around 150,000 Russian ex-prisoners have passed through the Russian military in Ukraine.

Russia is currently selling its foreign currency reserves at a rate of around 17 billion rubles ($200 million) per day. This is to prop up the currency until the election. That is, fairly obviously, unsustainable even in the medium term. The shock to the Russian economy when they stop doing that could be considerable (Russia has shown tremendous ingenuity in dodging economic bullets, but Nabiullina is running out of room to maneuver).

A significant Russian attack on the Krynky bridgehead was defeated. Apparently troops from the 205th went into battle without fire support and no ability to call in artillery or drone assistance. They were sitting ducks for the Ukrainians and suffered massive casualties. The 2nd Company of the 810th Marines did manage to reach the centre of Krynky to raise a Russian flag, but it was blown up less than an hour later (the Ukrainians have not really held the centre of Krynky at all but seem to be arrayed in a wide horseshoe around the village - of which not much is left standing - in a better defensive posture). Meanwhile, some Russian units have gotten stuck on islands in the Dnipro further north-east due to the half-frozen river, and have to be resupplied by drone and by the air, which is hazardous in that area.

Ukraine is holding the northern flank of Avdiivka at Stepove, defeating a Russian armoured assault. An M2 Bradley drove back the attacking Russian forces. Intriguingly, the Ukrainians believe the attackers were Chechen. Chechen forces have so far managed to avoid a lot of frontline combat duty, but seem to be seeing actual combat now with greater frequency due to force degradation.

The first two of a dozen new Leopard tanks and fifty additional SCALP French cruise missiles have been delivered to Ukraine.

[Werthead]

Major Russian attack on Novomykhailivka which would have been significantly dangerous had they not advanced a line of vehicles across pre-zeroed open ground in full view of multiple Ukrainian defensive positions. Exactly why they attacked into the middle of a killing ground would normally be unknown, but here we can just say "But Russia."

African volunteers in the Russian Army have been captured by the Ukrainians. They were "shocked" by levels of corruption in the Russian military, which from people who had served in Ethiopia and Somalia is really saying something.

The rolling blackouts in Moscow are now firmly underway, despite Moscow authorities saying the news - from their own utility companies! - was fake.

Makhachkala, capital of Dagestan where major riots erupted last year, has seen a major infrastructure failure resulting in an electrical fire.

A major oil depot in Bryansk which was hit by a drone strike is still ablaze after 24 hours. Again, there seems to have been a failure of the fire service to attend in proper numbers and again there seems to be bureaucratic wrangling over whether to send aircraft to help fight the fires (unconfirmed rumours that the fire service across Russia is under strength due to shadow conscription and some pilots are refusing to fly their planes as they have been under-maintained due to the sanctions).

Looks like the protests in Bashkortostan have died down after riot police successfully broke them up. At first there was strong resistance, some riot police ran off, people successfully stopped buses carrying off detainees, but then the riot police came back in larger numbers.

Ha!

[Mentalist]

LNG terminal and petrochemical refinery in Leningrad Oblast (roughly 800 clicks from the nearest UA border) hit by drones this morning.

Also, in Tula (200 km S of Moscow), the factory for the Pantsir' anti-air complexes is on fire from an airstrike.

The orcs seems to be making gains from Donets'k towards Avdiivka. May have overrun the primary defensive strongpoint, and made their way into the city outskirts. If true, then we are about to start seeing street-by-street fighting again, which means by the end of spring it's likely to be overrun.

While we wait for confirmations of additional weapons shipments to UAF, things are continuing to drag very painfully, as was to be expected.

[Mentalist]

ugh
So a prisoner exchange was supposed to take place today.

An orc transport plane fell/was shot down around Belgorod.

They are claiming it carried PoWs to be exchanged, and UAF shot it down.

Ukrainian MoD initially stated it carried additional S-300 missiles (the ones they use to pound Kharkiv almost daily). This was later amended to Iranian drone instructors (since the plane was in Iran yesterday)

At the moment, unclear what happened. HUR is implying the orcs set it up as bait, since they failed to request safe airspace (as they've done previously).

At the same time, the supposed "list of PoWs" that's being published contains almost 20 names of people confirmed to have been already exchanged. So it's a weird situation. Needs more info.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 24 January 2024 - 06:25 PM

[Macros]

How long before Boris Nahadzhin wakes up dead?