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The Russia Politics and War in Ukraine Thread

#1661 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 20 September 2023 - 02:37 PM

A Russian Su-34 crashed in Voronezh. Speculation over the course, but both Russian military and civil aviation is running into parts problems.

A potentially interesting advancement: Ukrainian special forces are reportedly operating in Sudan. They allied with local forces opposed to Wagner-aligned elements. Ukraine provided satellite intelligence and drone expertise to allow them to launch a series of attacks on Wagner forces operating in Sudan, resulting in heavy losses. Wagner was unprepared for attacks at this level of efficiency. If Ukraine is targeting Wagner forces operating wherever they are in the world, this would show a willingness on the side of Ukraine to engage Russian forces on foreign soil (to be fair, western forces should have been obliterating Wagner forces wherever they were located years ago, and if Moscow moaned about it, just point out how Moscow has denied having anything to do with them).

Possibly a SO or local Russian militia attack on Chkalovsky Airbase. An AN-148 and IL-20 were destroyed and a MI-28N helicopter was disabled. A second AN-148 was lightly damaged.

A Swedish TV crew were apparently targeted by a Russian drone in Stepnohirsk. They got out of the car before it was hit. I've seen some suggestions that the Russians may have gotten confused between the Swedish flag and a Ukrainian one (incidentally, some Swedish brands in Moscow have been pulled because people thought they were Ukrainian, or sending a pro-Ukraine message).

Shades of the Swiss Embassy, which did not evacuate when the war started, putting up a Swiss flag to stop their building from being attacked, but they were advised to take it down because the Ukrainians thought they'd be deliberately targeted by Russians mistaking it for a Red Cross.

Some reports of a drone attack on a Russian fuel depot near Sochi, but that's not been widely reported yet, so waiting for more confirmation.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#1662 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 20 September 2023 - 04:48 PM

View PostWerthead, on 20 September 2023 - 02:37 PM, said:

A Russian Su-34 crashed in Voronezh. Speculation over the course, but both Russian military and civil aviation is running into parts problems.

A potentially interesting advancement: Ukrainian special forces are reportedly operating in Sudan. They allied with local forces opposed to Wagner-aligned elements. Ukraine provided satellite intelligence and drone expertise to allow them to launch a series of attacks on Wagner forces operating in Sudan, resulting in heavy losses. Wagner was unprepared for attacks at this level of efficiency. If Ukraine is targeting Wagner forces operating wherever they are in the world, this would show a willingness on the side of Ukraine to engage Russian forces on foreign soil (to be fair, western forces should have been obliterating Wagner forces wherever they were located years ago, and if Moscow moaned about it, just point out how Moscow has denied having anything to do with them).

Possibly a SO or local Russian militia attack on Chkalovsky Airbase. An AN-148 and IL-20 were destroyed and a MI-28N helicopter was disabled. A second AN-148 was lightly damaged.

A Swedish TV crew were apparently targeted by a Russian drone in Stepnohirsk. They got out of the car before it was hit. I've seen some suggestions that the Russians may have gotten confused between the Swedish flag and a Ukrainian one (incidentally, some Swedish brands in Moscow have been pulled because people thought they were Ukrainian, or sending a pro-Ukraine message).

Shades of the Swiss Embassy, which did not evacuate when the war started, putting up a Swiss flag to stop their building from being attacked, but they were advised to take it down because the Ukrainians thought they'd be deliberately targeted by Russians mistaking it for a Red Cross.

Some reports of a drone attack on a Russian fuel depot near Sochi, but that's not been widely reported yet, so waiting for more confirmation.


HUR is reporting on the Chkalovsky airbase as a local act of resistance, since they are sayting the local authorities are looking for perpetrators but trying to keep it quiet, b/c that airbase is used to host government evacuation jets.

There's footage from the Sochi oil base fire.

A few hits on enemy C&C centres- Melitopol and Black Sea Fleet command post outsiode Sevastopol'. Also, more details about the Svitlodars'k hit- the target was the HQ of the "Espaniola" volunteer unit (which was staffed by Russian nationalist football hooligans).

Zelensky is in NYC, doing UN sppeches. Meeting with Biden tomorrow, supposed to get some more weapon announcements. The pressing question is, of course, ATACMS. As it's been for over a year, since the first HIMARS systems arrived and started working on the frontline.

There's also an escalating dispute with Poland over grain export. Polish govt is facing an election on Oct 15th, and they are clamping down on UA exports to boost their farmers- their primary voting block. But Zelensky and co are being... less than understanding. Not too happy about this lack of diplo-subtlety.

In other news: Karabakh Armenians appear to have capitulated. Disarmament/surrender/exodus is gonna take some time, but I'm guessing by the end of the year Azeris will have full control over the region, and Armenia will sign a treaty acknowledging the 1991 borders.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 20 September 2023 - 04:50 PM

The problem with the gene pool is that there's no lifeguard
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#1663 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 20 September 2023 - 05:52 PM

View PostMentalist, on 20 September 2023 - 04:48 PM, said:

A few hits on enemy C&C centres- Melitopol and Black Sea Fleet command post outsiode Sevastopol'. Also, more details about the Svitlodars'k hit- the target was the HQ of the "Espaniola" volunteer unit (which was staffed by Russian nationalist football hooligans).

Zelensky is in NYC, doing UN sppeches. Meeting with Biden tomorrow, supposed to get some more weapon announcements. The pressing question is, of course, ATACMS. As it's been for over a year, since the first HIMARS systems arrived and started working on the frontline.

There's also an escalating dispute with Poland over grain export. Polish govt is facing an election on Oct 15th, and they are clamping down on UA exports to boost their farmers- their primary voting block. But Zelensky and co are being... less than understanding. Not too happy about this lack of diplo-subtlety.

In other news: Karabakh Armenians appear to have capitulated. Disarmament/surrender/exodus is gonna take some time, but I'm guessing by the end of the year Azeris will have full control over the region, and Armenia will sign a treaty acknowledging the 1991 borders.


Given the importance of Ukraine-Poland relations, it feels like shaking them is a bit unnecessary. I wouldn't be surprised to see this deal wrapped up relatively quickly after the election (whomever wins). I get that Zelensky is annoyed by it though, and Ukraine is facing existential threat whilst the Polish government is arsing around. It doesn't quite match the rhetoric in New York that Poland will also face an existential threat if Ukraine falls.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#1664 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 21 September 2023 - 04:28 PM

View PostWerthead, on 20 September 2023 - 05:52 PM, said:

View PostMentalist, on 20 September 2023 - 04:48 PM, said:

A few hits on enemy C&C centres- Melitopol and Black Sea Fleet command post outsiode Sevastopol'. Also, more details about the Svitlodars'k hit- the target was the HQ of the "Espaniola" volunteer unit (which was staffed by Russian nationalist football hooligans).

Zelensky is in NYC, doing UN sppeches. Meeting with Biden tomorrow, supposed to get some more weapon announcements. The pressing question is, of course, ATACMS. As it's been for over a year, since the first HIMARS systems arrived and started working on the frontline.

There's also an escalating dispute with Poland over grain export. Polish govt is facing an election on Oct 15th, and they are clamping down on UA exports to boost their farmers- their primary voting block. But Zelensky and co are being... less than understanding. Not too happy about this lack of diplo-subtlety.

In other news: Karabakh Armenians appear to have capitulated. Disarmament/surrender/exodus is gonna take some time, but I'm guessing by the end of the year Azeris will have full control over the region, and Armenia will sign a treaty acknowledging the 1991 borders.


Given the importance of Ukraine-Poland relations, it feels like shaking them is a bit unnecessary. I wouldn't be surprised to see this deal wrapped up relatively quickly after the election (whomever wins). I get that Zelensky is annoyed by it though, and Ukraine is facing existential threat whilst the Polish government is arsing around. It doesn't quite match the rhetoric in New York that Poland will also face an existential threat if Ukraine falls.



The headlines and editorials about a Poland-Ukraine rift just keep on coming.

Meanwhile:

Zelensky and Duda already met today. Agro ministers from Poland and UA had prelim talks, negotiations scheduled for Wednesday.

Poland confirmed that Ukrainian order for "Krab" SPGs is proceeding as planned and on schedule- last year Ukraine ordered a few dozen of those to be manufactured.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#1665 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 21 September 2023 - 07:44 PM

Seeing early stories of a concerted attack on Verbove, with tanks and IFVs involved in the actual assault.

For some reason GLSDB has still not been delivered to Ukraine, despite being expected months ago, and ATACMS are apparently off the table in the short-term.

Some indications of Russia using S-300s in ground attack mode as makeshift artillery. They've done this before but seemed to stop when drones became more available. Possible shortages might have pushed them back to this approach.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#1666 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 21 September 2023 - 08:22 PM

View PostWerthead, on 21 September 2023 - 07:44 PM, said:

Seeing early stories of a concerted attack on Verbove, with tanks and IFVs involved in the actual assault.

For some reason GLSDB has still not been delivered to Ukraine, despite being expected months ago, and ATACMS are apparently off the table in the short-term.

Some indications of Russia using S-300s in ground attack mode as makeshift artillery. They've done this before but seemed to stop when drones became more available. Possible shortages might have pushed them back to this approach.


There's footage that UAF got some heavy equipment across THE BIIIIIIIIG TRENCH WITH DRAGON'S TEETH ™, and are trying to push further S. Verbove runs perpendicular (NW-SER for about 8 km) to these trench lines , forming a flank of this fortification system- so it would make sense that UAF is trying to push the orcs out of it. Cutting the road from Polohy to Tokmak and getting past the big trench systems would be a pretty big feat. Though it's unclear how effective any further mechanized pushes would be, b/c the orcs still have their helicopters to hit us from outside range of field SAM systems.

DeepState now has a 15 km wide strip of "grey zone" on the L bank, between Dnipro and Konka rivers. Maybe all that harping from the ISW about a landing op isn't just a smokescreen.

It's also possible the UAF has already crossed the railway S of Bakhmut at a point, but that's unclear yet. The first (and best) of the big 3 supply roads is effectively under our fire control now, since it's only 3 km from the frontline, and we have the highest ground in the area from the hills in Klishiyivka.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#1667 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 02:45 PM

HQ of the Black Sea Fleet got storm shadowed. Twice.

Special demilitarization operation in Crimea continues according to plan

And now NBC and WaPo are doing another "ATCMS are coming" song and dance.

Once again, I'll believe it when I see it.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 22 September 2023 - 06:14 PM

The problem with the gene pool is that there's no lifeguard
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#1668 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 23 September 2023 - 12:30 PM

Apparently there was a meeting going on in the Black Sea HQ building when the missiles hit, and the commander of the Black Sea Fleet and the commander of the southern front were both severely wounded. Some rumours that several of the high-ranking people present were killed, but Russia is hiding that information at the moment.

Ukraine doesn't seem to be happy with the quality of its Abrams training and will extend it by several more weeks. Abrams are technically challenging to operate in a hotly contested zone, and Ukraine seems lukewarm that the few the US are sending will be decisive, so there's no major problem if the tanks are only deployed for early next year rather than late this year. Mixed messaging on how long the fighting can continue into the cold season.

Comically, it looks like Russia is going to start broadcasting a show starring Tucker Carlson, consisting of Carlson dubbed over with pro-Russian messages (well, pro-er Russian messaging).

A munitions position in Sevastopol looks like it was also destroyed this morning.

Large protests in Chelyabinsk, where the locals turned out to protest at government and military buildings, demanding the return of their troops from Ukraine. Lots of anger that provincial forces have taken the brunt of casualties to spare Muscovites and others from the big cities (similar protests have been seen in Buryatia and Dagestan).
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#1669 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 24 September 2023 - 02:16 PM

"You won't believe what this French photographer wants us to do."

"Wait, I got my moustache in good trim today, let's do it."

Continued Ukrainian bombardment at Zaitseve, taking out multiple Russian vehicles. The infantry positions around there have also been under long-range attack for several days solid. Very clearly the next Ukrainian target, which will allow them to envelop Bakhmut's southern front and put most of the resupply routes into the east of the city in medium and short-range artillery range. Russia probably now needs to consider a full withdrawal from Bakhmut, they can't hold the town without masses of reinforcements. In fact, it's a shitty town to try to defend, you need to control the heights around it and now Russia has lost those (as Ukraine did last year), it's probably best to pull out before it turns into a bloodbath. A good thing for Ukraine if they don't, of course, and just sacrifice troops to the grinder. But utterly pointless.

The local FSB HQ in Kursk was hit by a drone strike and seems to have been heavily damaged. No word on casualties. Russian air defences seem to have really been degraded along a wide swathe of the front now, even as far back as Russian territory. They should not be letting this many strikes through (some rumours that S-300 and S-400 units from around Kursk and other areas of the rear may have been transferred to replace the ones destroyed in Crimea, but unconfirmed as yet).

Really weird statement by Lavrov at the UN yesterday where he said that Russia recognises Ukraine within the terms of the Declaration of State Sovereignty of 16 July 1990, where in Russia recognised the state borders of Ukraine as those of the Ukrainian SSR, including the Donbas and Crimea (let alone what is now the land bridge). That seems to have confused a lot of people. I'm wondering if he is banking on the wording that states that Ukraine will be a "permanently neutral state" that will not seek membership of either western or eastern military blocs, which Ukraine will no longer agree to (because it's worthless given Russian duplicity) so ergo it's a meaningless statement but one that sounds good to Russian sympathisers.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 24 September 2023 - 02:34 PM

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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#1670 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 24 September 2023 - 07:04 PM

Today is City Day in Kursk, and bavovna just keeps flowing.

Notable Z-head channel Fighterbomber is extending his condolences to brothers from the Khalino airbase (next to Kursk). No details, so I guess we need to wait for satellite pictures.


Also, a flash, bang, and then a blackout in St Petersburg airport.

Some speculations that we are making a "breakthrough" beyond Robotyne, but that's unclear. There's footage of heavy equipment beyond the first double-line trench (the one with all the "dragons' teeth" concrete triangles), but I wouldn't get too excited just yet. There's 2 more trench lines to go until we are past the "main defences"- i.e., the ones that are big enough to be visible from space. But it's important to bear in mind, that any single hedgerow can have foxholes and bunkers in it that hide an anti-tank gun team. So just being past the "BIIIIIIG TRENCHES" doesn't mean the "frontline is broken"- that's all contingent on remaining enemies- and this week we've seen reported casualties dip below 400 a day for the first time in a looooooong time.

There's also the Ka-52s, which are a real threat to our armor, since they can fire their missiles outside effective manpads range. Which is why the ATCMS blasting all the airbases in the S to eliminate those helos would be kinda crucial for any big push.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#1671 User is offline   Azath Vitr (D'ivers 

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Posted 25 September 2023 - 04:19 PM

Quote

A former security officer has described working at one of [...] Putin's luxury palaces, where ultra-loyal staff vie for power and advancement.

[...] toxic environment with sharp-elbowed colleagues vying for power. [...]

[...] Armed divers also scour the beach for assassins [...]

One key aspect of the compound was that no matter their actual job, every single member of staff there was a security officer[...]

"Everybody who works there, [even] a person who is cutting the grass or washing the linen, [...]

[...] "There are people there who are like him. [...]

"They are trying to find faults with you," [...] "You have to watch everything you are saying in front of them, because every word may be used against you."

"The thing is, this is the kind of service where nothing happens," [...] "And the only way to make a career and to promote yourself is to tell on others."

Forced to protect a warmonger

[...] even the psychologist he reached out to passed information from their private sessions straight back to his superiors

Putin Luxury Crimea Palace Is Like a Toxic 'Little Town': Former Guard (businessinsider.com)

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#1672 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 25 September 2023 - 06:01 PM

Kadyrov's son has beaten up a Russian man who burned a Quran and the whole thing was filmed. A lot of Kadyrov fans seem to have only just realised he's (nominally, given his love of alcohol and drugs) a Muslim and this has spurred a major debate about remaining fans or indulging in some Islamophobia. The debate continues.

Ukrainian forces have resumed their advance from Robotyne, having cleared the southern approaches. Some forces seem to have penetrated beyond the south of the town and closed in on Novoprokopivka without too much trouble. That might be an indication the Russians have woken up to the idea of not fighting to the last man in open countryside between the lines and have actually pulled back to the next defensive line itself. Novoprokopivka is around the halfway mark from the jumping-off point at Orikhiv to Tokmak, the key defensive lynchpin of the line Ukraine needs to reach to make this offensive look like a reasonable success.

What is interesting is a shift of long-range Ukrainian fire towards Ocheretuvate, suggesting Ukraine wants to flatten out the line from Robotyne-Novoprokopivka-Ocheretuvate and then cut north to Verbove, presumably to create a more defensible line, probably using Russia's own formerly defensive lines.

There now seems greater certainty that Admiral Sokolov, CiC of the Black Sea Fleet, died in the missile attack on Sevastopol. Sevastopol authorities have had to demolish several of the buildings in the area because they are too unsafe to use.

The DPR has been locked down. People can only leave Donetsk through special checkpoints, and police have been authorised to carry out wiretaps and read people's emails.

St. Petersburg has suffered a partial blackout after some reports of an explosion. Unclear what happened there, St. Petersburg is obviously a huge distance from Ukraine.
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#1673 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 25 September 2023 - 10:56 PM

More and more indications that 82nd Assault is fighting its way through Verbove. Punching through this 8 km-long village will be important, but the trenches in the flanks are going to be an issue. There's a ridgeline between Novoprokopivka and Verbove that has to fall, otherwise further breakthrough will become very dangerous.

The thing with Kadyrov's son is from the summer. What's notable is that federal ombudswoman took interest and claimed to be leading an investigation. That could be indicative of Moscow trying to clip Grozny a tiny bit. With the new rumours about Kadyrov's ailing health, that adds context.

Z-heads are whining that everything is close to collapse; at the same time, unclear what reserves UAF has to keep pushing. The fact that the 47th MECH which started the push on Robotyne in June is still acting on the flank towards Kopani and hasn't been rotated out is worrying me a bit, TBH.

We are in the last week before conscription starts in Russia. Once they start rounding up kids unlucky enough to not have gotten into a postsecondary institution, milcoms won't have the processing power to equip and send off fresh mobik units. Which may play into UAF's hands.
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#1674 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 27 September 2023 - 08:36 PM

Sweden has barred all exports to Russia to replace its ageing mobile infrastructure. Ericsson was going to provide updated 5G networks to 27 Russian regions, including Moscow, but this has now been barred by Swedish court order. In addition, Ericsson has been blocked from providing repairs, upgrades or spare parts for their existing mobile networks. These are difficult to replace from elsewhere, and cannot be third-party imported as the tech needs to be tailored for each geographical location.

In a speech, Shoigu has said that he expects the "special military operation" to culminate by 2025 at the latest.

It now appears that Admiral Sokolov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, survived the attack on his headquarters despite some strong Ukrainian claims he had been killed or at least severely wounded.

A Russian logistics hub in Sorokyne, Luhansk has been destroyed. What's interesting here is that it seems to have been a heavy hit delivered 130km into the rear of the Russian lines. This is outside current HIMARS range and Storm Shadow has not been used to interdict logistics systems at long range before now in quite this fashion. Either there has been a change to Storm Shadow doctrine or this was a GLSDB or ATACMS strike, unadvertised. Russia moved logistics hubs back out of HIMARS range starting late last year, but had so far not relocated the new hubs out of Storm Shadow/ATACMS range because doing so would make resupply from those hubs to the front too logistically challenging. I wonder if this attack is Ukraine now trying to force them to make that change.

Ukraine seems to have developed a pretty good system for pairing radars and Gepard AA guns, allowing them to shoot down Shahed drones fairly reliably and at relatively low cost (Gepard ammo being far cheaper than AA missiles).
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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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#1675 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 28 September 2023 - 01:26 AM

Sokolov thing is still unclear. They released 2 videos, one that has him on an undated zoom call with Shoigu, where he looks to be sitting (or lying?) on a pillow. Though he does appear to breathe in that clip, so there's that.

The second has him give a speech at an award ceremony for a local soccer team, except that award ceremony was like a month ago. And while he is talking about how the Black Sea Fleet continues to carry out all assigned tasks, there's nary a mention of the HQ strike, or losing a submarine and a big landing ship. Not saying that he can't be alive, just that the evidence isn't entirely convincing.

Things have gone really quiet in the South, which could mean a number of things. Some commenters are still insistent that "there will be good news soon ™", but at this point I'm not sure how much hopium's involved. The casualty numbers have gone down drastically (which SORTA makes sense, given the orcs' pause in the NE for close to a week now), but artillery numbers still hover around 35 a day, which is at least good.

Definitely feels like we're in for a slog, unless something snaps. The next "big day" is Putler's birthday on the 7th, so we'll see what kind of neat surprises HUR and SBU will have for him this year (reminder that last year it was the Crimean Bridge truck bomb strike)
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View PostJump Around, on 23 October 2011 - 11:04 AM, said:

And I want to state that Ment has out-weaseled me by far in this game.
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#1676 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 28 September 2023 - 06:08 PM

Lack of spare parts to repair their aircraft is causing Russia increasingly major problems.
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#1677 User is offline   Mentalist 

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Posted 29 September 2023 - 02:56 PM

Putler signed a decree to start autumn conscription, with the goal of rounding up 130k.

This means mobilization should be off the table until New Year, b/c milcoms will be busy rounding up kids.
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#1678 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 29 September 2023 - 06:53 PM

Russia has launched a counter-attack to recapture Urozhaine. They advanced a column of vehicles directly into a field of drone-directed artillery fire and lost the whole lot, so didn't even get close to the town. Feels like a very desperate gamble.

Lugovoi in Bryansk is under attack by the Freedom of Russia partisan group, possibly backed up by Ukrainian special forces. Appears to be a major raid, still ongoing.

An electricity substation in Belaya, Kursk Oblast was destroyed by Ukrainian drones overnight, plunging the village into darkness before they managed to effect emergency repairs. Possibly a warning that if Russia starts major attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure again, Ukraine can retaliate in kind.

Putin has asked Andrey Troshin, former commander of Wagner, to take command of the organisation again (or possibly reconstitute it into a new force) and return to the front line in Ukraine. Troshin did not exactly seem thrilled at the prospect.

Russia has shot down one of its own Su-35s over Tokmak.
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#1679 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 29 September 2023 - 11:35 PM

Unconfirmed reports of a Russian drone crashing 21km inside Romanian territory, which would be the most significant violation of NATO airspace by Russian forces since the conflict began.

Serbian troop buildup on the border of Kosovo. The United States has told them to withdraw. Serbia, interestingly, wants NATO to take over security along the border as they no longer trust the Kosovo police to do this following months of tensions, problems and loss of life in the border area. NATO believes this would be an attempt by Serbia to effectively make Kosovo nonviable as a territory, or perhaps de facto readjust the border to the south of the Serbian-majority areas in the north, and thus the death of Kosovo by a thousand paper cuts. NATO is unwilling to countenance this. However, it may instead have to make a much bigger judgement call about using military force to eject Serbian forces from Kosovo if they do cross the border. Russian interference, of course, is probable.

Looks like Russia has lost between 1,000 and 1,200 troops in attempts to recapture Klishchiivka over the past fortnight. Just massed attacks without artillery support on Ukrainian forces dug-in with heavy weapons in defence. Complete insanity.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 30 September 2023 - 02:42 PM

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#1680 User is offline   Werthead 

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Posted 03 October 2023 - 06:00 PM

Armenia has joined the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, requiring them to arrest Putin should he visit the country.

Aeroflot is reporting an increase in the number of malfunctions, cancelled flights and mechanical failures in its civil aviation fleet.

Remarkably, Ukraine is to start easing economic protection plans put in place at the start of the invasion. Currency valuations are to recommence from next week, apparently thanks to international support stabilising fears of a collapse of the country.

A Cameroon freighter is picking up grain from an unspecified port in Ukraine, and one from the Marshall Islands is apparently right behind it. Five other ships seem to be using the new "grain corridor" unilaterally set up by Ukraine after Russia pulled out of the grain deal.

There's apparently a lot of politicking going on between the EU and Orban to bring him on board so Ukraine can begin EU accession talks and unlock the EU foreign aid budget for next year (which both require unanimity). Orban continues to play nice with Putin, but there may be some signs that he's willing to stand up a little more (being friends with Putin at a distance is one thing, but Orban does not appear keen to have Russian troops right on Hungary's border should Ukraine fall). Interesting to see if that's just wishful thinking on the EU's part or it goes somewhere.

Russian forces launched an assault on Marinka and were beaten back with significant losses. Some reports of Ukraine launching a series of artillery and drone strikes on Tavriya, which is interesting. Still on the southern front but off away on a SW tangent from Robotyne and NW of Tokmak. I doubt Ukraine has enough capacity to open a third sub-front in this area, but who knows. Ukrainian forces have also indicated that the onset of cold weather will be less of a problem than last year, as their current tactics of using long-range fire to reduce enemy positions, taking the position with mobile infantry and then digging in, requires much less mass movement of vehicles (which is impossible in the mud).

Shoigu says there will be no further mobilisation beyond the normal annual conscription. Officially 130,000 conscripts have been added to the tally, but it's believed they are secretly looking to add around 300,000 to the roster. The penal battalion idea is also continuing, with freshly-mobilised criminal troops apparently already deployed around Bakhmut.

In one of the robust displays of support, the UK has said it will begin training Ukrainian soldiers inside Ukraine itself, despite this meaning deploying troops to an active war zone (where they could be killed in a conventional strike without triggering Article 5, technically). Some other Ukrainian partner countries are also considering doing the same thing.

Britain has floated the idea, individually and as part of a wider NATO-Europe defence strategy, that Ukraine's industrial base could be maintained and utilised after the war to help rearm all of Europe. Rebuilding a native defence capacity in Britain and France is impossible in the short-term and will take many, many years to become viable (possibly less so in Germany, which still maintains an industrial capacity). Ensuring Ukrainian victory and then maintaining Ukraine's wartime weapons output to supply its western partners is a very interesting idea, as it will also bolster the Ukrainian postwar economy.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 03 October 2023 - 06:01 PM

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"Try standing out in a winter storm all night and see how tough you are. Start with that. Then go into a bar and pick a fight and see how tough you are. And then go home and break crockery over your head. Start with those three and you'll be good to go."
- Bruce Campbell on how to be as cool as he is
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