[Mentalist]

QuickTidal, on 11 October 2022 - 03:45 PM, said:

I wish this surprised me....but it does not. Musk is and always has been just another rich dragon hoarding his fucking billions....what really chaps my ass is that the CEO of a fucking CAR COMPANY is weighing in on global diplomacy (or lacketherof really)...let alone being in fucking bed with Former KGB-agent/Tyrant Putin...

https://www.vice.com...r-putin-ukraine

But yes, this should surprise utterly no one.

Also, this should very much put into perspective his whole "I'll give Ukraine Starlink internet!"....this motherfucker thinks he's goddamned Emperor Palpatine puppeting two sides of a war for how own benefit...You ain't that smart Musk. And bear in mind that recently there have been "outages" in Star Link over Ukraine...like give the guy a fucking moustache to twirl already....jeezus...

The "outages outrage" was addressed by UAF troops directly- Starlink coverage only works in Ukraine-controlled territory, so sometimes when UAF advances too fast and too far, they lose connectivity, b/c satellite operators need to adjust the range of the signal. it's a tecnical issue, and the media blew it out of proportion, b/c Musk and Twitter drama.

re: Musk "gave UA StarLink".... not quite true, ,ultiple governments (US, Poland, etc) are disclosing how much THEY have spent to procure StarLink terminals and equipment for Ukraine. So this isn't about him being a benevolent tech overlord either.


The fact that he's listening to Putler's history lectures that feed into many Western Leftist's wet dreams ("NATO bad, poor defenseless Russia being surrounded by enemy Nazi regimes, must protect ethnic Russians from Western Colonialism, etc") just shows that outside his chosen technical fields he's an idiot. But we all already knew that.

[Werthead]

Although, one interesting bit from that is that Putin seems to regard a Ukrainian ground invasion of Crimea as the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons, suggesting he's realised that using them short of that would be a very bad idea, but he can sell an invasion of Crimea - a territory Russia has held for 8 years - as being more a direct assault on Russian sovereignty.

The problem there is that Ukraine now sees Crimea as a gun held to its head and even if it regained 100% of its territory elsewhere, any future conflict could start over Crimea very easily.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 October 2022 - 04:26 PM

[QuickTidal]

Mentalist, on 11 October 2022 - 04:23 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 11 October 2022 - 03:45 PM, said:

I wish this surprised me....but it does not. Musk is and always has been just another rich dragon hoarding his fucking billions....what really chaps my ass is that the CEO of a fucking CAR COMPANY is weighing in on global diplomacy (or lacketherof really)...let alone being in fucking bed with Former KGB-agent/Tyrant Putin...

https://www.vice.com...r-putin-ukraine

But yes, this should surprise utterly no one.

Also, this should very much put into perspective his whole "I'll give Ukraine Starlink internet!"....this motherfucker thinks he's goddamned Emperor Palpatine puppeting two sides of a war for how own benefit...You ain't that smart Musk. And bear in mind that recently there have been "outages" in Star Link over Ukraine...like give the guy a fucking moustache to twirl already....jeezus...

The "outages outrage" was addressed by UAF troops directly- Starlink coverage only works in Ukraine-controlled territory, so sometimes when UAF advances too fast and too far, they lose connectivity, b/c satellite operators need to adjust the range of the signal. it's a tecnical issue, and the media blew it out of proportion, b/c Musk and Twitter drama.

re: Musk "gave UA StarLink".... not quite true, ,ultiple governments (US, Poland, etc) are disclosing how much THEY have spent to procure StarLink terminals and equipment for Ukraine. So this isn't about him being a benevolent tech overlord either.


The fact that he's listening to Putler's history lectures that feed into many Western Leftist's wet dreams ("NATO bad, poor defenseless Russia being surrounded by enemy Nazi regimes, must protect ethnic Russians from Western Colonialism, etc") just shows that outside his chosen technical fields he's an idiot. But we all already knew that.

ah okay, good to know!

Werthead, on 11 October 2022 - 04:25 PM, said:

Although, one interesting bit from that is that Putin seems to regard a Ukrainian ground invasion of Crimea as the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons, suggesting he's realised that using them short of that would be a very bad idea,

Quite frankly using them AT ALL is a bad idea and I think he knows that (Remember, this guy's formative years were during the Cold War and he knows brinkmanship is all that's usually required...using the things would be beyond stupid with most of the Western world allied against him) ...the second he uses any nuclear armed weapon against Ukraine....he's toast. All of Russia is toast. Nothing would hold NATO back at that point from attacking him to stop him. The only safety net he has from outside powers right now is the brinkmanship threat...he cannot step over that line. Even in Crimea in the wake of a ground assault would find him toast. NATO is not going to sit idly by while a power like Russia detonates ANY nuclear weapon anywhere on an offensive manner.

[Werthead]

Apparently Russia sent a large helicopter force to assault Ukrainian positions without trying to suppress air defences first, resulting in four lost helicopters in under 20 minutes before they beat a hasty retreat.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 12 October 2022 - 06:24 PM, said:

Apparently Russia sent a large helicopter force to assault Ukrainian positions without trying to suppress air defences first, resulting in four lost helicopters in under 20 minutes before they beat a hasty retreat.

Also, D-1 cannons (manufacture discontinued in 1949) spotted on the Luhans'k front.

While a retired general turned MP turned up at a tank repair factory in Chita (Eastern Siberia) to proudly announce plans to modernize 800 T-62 tanks in the next 3 years.

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 12 October 2022 - 06:27 PM, said:

Also, D-1 cannons (manufacture discontinued in 1949) spotted on the Luhans'k front.

While a retired general turned MP turned up at a tank repair factory in Chita (Eastern Siberia) to proudly announce plans to modernize 800 T-62 tanks in the next 3 years.

Its mind boggling what they intend to accomplish with gear that isn't just obsolete but actually antique.

Of course they probably have huge stocks of soviet era antique ammunition for those guns. Wonder what the grunts being issued such weapons think, reliability is going to be awesomely bad.

This post has been edited by Chance: 12 October 2022 - 06:45 PM

[Werthead]

The first video-recorded drone-on-drone combat dogfight in history. Ukraine proved victorious.

Some reports that Russia has begun pulling personnel out of Kherson city.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 13 October 2022 - 06:16 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 13 October 2022 - 05:06 PM, said:

The first video-recorded drone-on-drone combat dogfight in history. Ukraine proved victorious.

Some reports that Russia has begun pulling personnel out of Kherson city.

The gauleiter is asking Ruscist officials with assistance to "evacuate" take hostages from residents in Kherson, Chornobayivka, as well as Nova Kakhovka and Hola Prystan' on the L bank.

There's also multiple ammo depots exploding around the city of Belgorod today.

Possibly some movement towards Svatove? more of an evening out the frontline pushing the orcs out of Kharkiv Oblast, rather than direct approach towards the river, though. Still, progress is progress.

[Werthead]

Ha. Putin reportedly saying (second or third-hand reporting, so take with a lump of salt) that he will consider a Russian withdrawal from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and legal steps needed to recognise them as part of Ukraine again, but Ukraine must recognise Crimea and the Donbas as Russian. Maybe some wriggle-room for negotiations on the borders of the LPR and DPR. No negotiations on Crimea.

Sounds like he is really rattled about losing Crimea, to the point of maybe giving up most of Russia's territorial gains during the conflict to ensure he keeps it.

I suspect Ukraine will not engage too much with this, but some neutral countries and even hesitant allies may leap on it. I do wonder if it is proposed, it will be a deliberate excuse to escalate if Ukraine turns down the "offer." However, I'm not sure I buy that even Putin thinks he can go into Ukraine, lose ~60,000 dead and maybe 30-40,000 more injured, and come out of it with virtually no increase in territory, a much weaker economy and ~40% of his active military destroyed, and that not be seen as a defeat.

[Macros]

Musk is now saying starlink can't be paid for in Ukraine?

Or something like that

[Werthead]

Macros, on 14 October 2022 - 02:51 PM, said:

Musk is now saying starlink can't be paid for in Ukraine?

Or something like that

He wants the DoD to fund it, which is amusing because it implies that SpaceX has been doing this out of charity so far. No, they've been paid quite well for it already.

[Werthead]

The Kremlin is cracking down on the military blogger Telegram channels which have been critical of the war. They seem to be targeting Wagner-supporting ones in particular, potentially more signs of trouble between Wagner and the government.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 14 October 2022 - 09:07 PM, said:

The Kremlin is cracking down on the military blogger Telegram channels which have been critical of the war. They seem to be targeting Wagner-supporting ones in particular, potentially more signs of trouble between Wagner and the government.

Wagner and FSB both. There's a huge turf war going on, the military is also blaming the FSB for the Crimean Bridge fiasco.

There's insider chatter that Russia and the US were speaking prior to the September counterioffensive, and yielding Donbas was also on the cards in exchange for legitimization of Crimea. But once UAF successfully lunched the Balakliya-Izyum operation in Kharkiv Oblast, the US unilaterally stopped the discussions. This, along with the reception Putler gor from Xi and Mod at the SCO Summit is what prompted Putler to double down and raise the stakes via mobilization and annexation

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 15 October 2022 - 10:42 AM, said:

Wagner and FSB both. There's a huge turf war going on, the military is also blaming the FSB for the Crimean Bridge fiasco.

There's insider chatter that Russia and the US were speaking prior to the September counterioffensive, and yielding Donbas was also on the cards in exchange for legitimization of Crimea. But once UAF successfully lunched the Balakliya-Izyum operation in Kharkiv Oblast, the US unilaterally stopped the discussions. This, along with the reception Putler gor from Xi and Mod at the SCO Summit is what prompted Putler to double down and raise the stakes via mobilization and annexation

I'm dubious about that. Both the Russians and US have been adamant there have been no direct communications regarding the war and in fact both sides have avoided them so there can be a "big moment" diplomatically when Biden and Putin talk face-to-face where it looks like they both come away with something (this is fairly standard diplomatic operating procedure). The US and Ukraine are basically currently using Germany, France and Turkey as interlocutors with the Russians diplomatically. Militarily, the direct contact line between the Americans and Russians to avoid direct confrontation is apparently in daily use (with regards to Ukraine but more regularly their operations in Syria).

I can see the US abandoning any possible discussions after Bucha or the missile attacks, but it seems odd to abandon them after a Ukrainian success, which would simply strengthen their hand.

[Werthead]

An FSB and a Wagner agent have both defected to France. Interesting stuff there.

Also a media blackout from the UAF. Possibly a new offensive?

Russian press-gangs wandering the streets of Russian cities, grabbing people at random to force them into the army. At one point they diverted 200 workers on a Moscow construction project into the military.

The head of Wagner has taken part in a Q&A and said he gives respect to the Ukrainians as a tough, worthy foe. He also pours absolute scorn on his allies - probably the LPR/DPR troops, not the Chechens or Russians - for being useless in battle, and noting that Wagner fights its battles alone because the value of other troops not trained to their standards is limited.

He also notes Wagner is far better-trained, equipped and supported, and he pays for this support himself. Maybe a veiled threat that Wagner is very capable and loyal to himself.

The head of the Russian recruitment effort has been found hanged in a small village. Some confusing reports on whether it was suicide or murder.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 October 2022 - 10:31 AM

[Werthead]

Apparently the war in Ukraine might end not because one side wins or a diplomatic breakthrough, but because Russia's entire rail freight system collapses. That's pretty insane.

Lots of analysis today that the 9,000 Russian troops that have arrived in Belarus are deploying to military training bases in the north of the country and there are no signs of an invasion across the marshy border (which would be insane in the best of conditions). Looks like Belarus was making a big thing of it to try to intimidate Ukraine but in reality, the Russian conscripts are there to get training because Russia's own military training school (all 1 of it) has been absolutely overloaded.

Apparently the firefight in Kherson city last month was an internal conflict: Chechen forces tried to seize a supply train that had been meant for Wagner forces and they ended up shooting at one another. Looks like the subsequent Wagner-Chechen "alliance" was to patch things up after this conflict.

Some signs that some individual oligarchs, FSB and military figures have recruited troops and bodyguards from MSCs and are not sending them to Ukraine, but keeping them around as bodyguards.

[Werthead]

On 29 September a Russian Su-27 fired on a RAF UAV over the Black Sea. Apparently the missile did not acquire target lock and fell into the sea. The UK Defence Minister contacted his Russian defence counterpart and apparently it was confirmed that the missile release was an accident, which the UK accepted on the basis that the Russian jet was not trying to lock on before firing. There may even have been a (mild) apology from the Russian side.

Brown trousers moment. If the missile had hit, and it had been manned aircraft, that could have entailed a NATO response.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 20 October 2022 - 03:26 PM

[Werthead]

Russia is mining the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine. If they blow the dam, all the cities downriver, most notably Kherson, could be very heavily damaged, with a high loss of life and loss of power generation.

Completely insane move. They'd also have to take the Zaporizhzia nuclear plant off-line as the river provides cooling for it, and they'd lose any chance of restoring the Crimean Canal in the short term.

It's possible Russia will try to blame Ukraine for the attack, which is crazy as the Americans can see what the Russians are doing via satellite.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 20 October 2022 - 08:29 PM, said:

Russia is mining the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine. If they blow the dam, all the cities downriver, most notably Kherson, could be very heavily damaged, with a high loss of life and loss of power generation.

Completely insane move. They'd also have to take the Zaporizhzia nuclear plant off-line as the river provides cooling for it, and they'd lose any chance of restoring the Crimean Canal in the short term.

It's possible Russia will try to blame Ukraine for the attack, which is crazy as the Americans can see what the Russians are doing via satellite.

The one good thing about ZNPP is that the all the reactors are already shut down.

The worst thing about blowing the dam would be that most of the damage would be to the floodplains on the Left Bank, which is where the orcs are currently retreating to.
not to mention it would drain the Crimean Canal, thus depriving Crimea of its main source of water.
Would be an absolutely boneheaded move on all accounts. But since it's pure evil at its core, we absofuckinglutely have to worry about them doing it.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'“Legendary stories play a formidable role in our national psychology and are without doubt animating Putin’s actions in Ukraine, [...] but I certainly don’t believe reports that the man-snake Koschei Bessmertny is advising Putin from a grotto beneath the Kremlin.” [...]

[...] “It’s like sitting here in 1942 trying to profile Hitler, who also believed in mumbo jumbo,” says a U.S. intelligence analyst who profiles Putin. “You can’t take it seriously, but you must take it into consideration.”'

'“Putin and his entourage take the spirit world very seriously,” says a Kremlin official[...]

“He fits all of Russia’s paranormal stereotypes. Her diagnosis: “Putin is attracted to the idea that supernatural forces anointed him as the Chosen One,” [...]

[...] “Ridiculous stories about demons giving him power are nonetheless psychologically concrete. Demons don’t abide by rules.”

[...] Putin’s “wraith-like personality.” [...]

[...] a demonic entity that haunts the Russian president, the fabled Russian villain Koschei Bessmertny—also known as The Immortal and The Walking Skeleton. [...] the Shaman-Warrior of Yakutia his followers set off on a two-year, 5,000-mile march to Moscow, where Gabyshev vowed to use his magic sword to slay the beast beneath the Kremlin and exorcise its terror from Putin’s soul.

[...] Gabyshev’s soothsayers were at first attacked by a coven of pro-Putin shamans in the city of Ulan-Ude. [...]

“Putin is scared,” was now jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s response to the mystical melee that put Gabyshev behind bars. “Putin is already stomping his feet and shouting, ‘God save me from this shaman. What if he really does banish me?’”

[...] “I’m sure Putin was terrified,” [...] “He staged a major police operation against Gabyshev. [...] His goal was to remove the demon from beneath the Kremlin and free Putin’s stolen soul. It’s a powerful and accurate metaphor that resonates with all Russians.”

[...] Western intelligence agencies are hardly a bunch of humorless stiffs. “But when we stopped laughing,” says one, “we concluded that Putin’s fear of Gabyshev was palpable.” [...]

Valery Solovey, who’s trained many members of Putin’s ambassadorial corps [... claims] Putin once commanded Kremlin sorcerers to ritualistically kill a black dog so he could drink the blood to ensure a crushing victory in Ukraine. When that dog didn’t hunt, Solovey claimed that Putin ordered all the magicians’ heads cut off and displayed in front of their homes.'

The Crazy Mystical Impulses Sending Putin Wild in Ukraine