[QuickTidal]

Chance, on 03 March 2022 - 07:09 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 03 March 2022 - 06:00 PM, said:

The Russian people can stop this, and if he pushes them too far maybe they will. History shows that they don't have a problem with rebuking rulers they feel keep them downtrodden and poor and miserable.

Really this is one of the worst possible outcome civil war in russia would be a nightmare. Putin would fight popular uprising and syria would look like a happy misunderstanding compared to that.

Of course pretty much any likely outcome by now looks pretty horrible.

I think this bit is key here. Putin has gone past the end of the road. Nothing that happens from her on out will be pretty regardless.

Best result would be his inner circle deciding he's become a liability and killing him themselves and then suing for peace with Ukraine.

[Macros]

Will the next dictator be any better?
You could end up in a year of the 4 emperor's situation, except instead of a few legions each they have a couple hundred nukes

[Macros]

I'm not offering solutions, the only way I see this being resolved is in a rejoice, a knife to the heart situation.

That or a billionaire fakes his death and assembles a hit team to take out every dictator and corrupt bastard the world over

Yes I'm very optimistic at the moment alright.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Macros, on 03 March 2022 - 08:13 PM, said:

Will the next dictator be any better?
You could end up in a year of the 4 emperor's situation, except instead of a few legions each they have a couple hundred nukes

If they're more rational than Putin is being, and more concerned with stability? Yes. Also not at all guaranteed to be a dictatorship. More likely the army or the oligarchs, or a combination of the two (an autocracy, but not one resembling an absolute dictatorship---though they'll probably have a figurehead or sham 'president').

Of course the concept of 'war crimes' is extremely important as a contract between nations. Each side will generally accuse the other of criminality, and claim not to be the 'true' aggressor. But if both sides can agree that certain tactics will constitute crimes, that can lead to better ethical results overall. (Though I would not fault the Ukrainians for almost any tactic....) Case in point:

'Ukraine-Russia say humanitarian corridors were agreed on

"[...] reached an agreement on [...] rescuing civilians who found themselves in a military clash zone. Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries agreed on providing humanitarian corridors for civilians and on a possible temporary ceasefire in areas where evacuation is happening,"'

https://www.cnn.com/...d1c79a7f2c4d06c

... assuming Putin's forces honor that agreement.

Even more severe sanctions are possible (particularly if Western nations are willing to take the financial hit of sanctioning energy exports), and the threat of them (or potentially even of additional nations introducing sanctions) may have some influence over Putin's decisions---or those of other powerful people in Russia who could stage a successful coup.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 03 March 2022 - 09:00 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Putin didn't always rule his country alone. Now he does, and the dictator appears to care little about the consequences of his actions.

[...] what exists inside the Kremlin is no longer a "regime" at all—a system of government where multiple figures can affect and feed into decision-making, from security chiefs to billionaires—as many believed.

Instead, it has transformed into what political scientists call a personalist dictatorship, where the whims of one man, and one man only, determine policy, a fact that has terrifying implications for Russia and the world.

[...] authoritarian states exist on a political spectrum depending on how much power is exercised by a single individual—and where states land on this spectrum has a big impact on matters of war and peace. At one end, you have civilian-run regimes, like Hu Jintao's China or Leonid Brezhnev's Soviet Union, where political power is checked and shared within a ruling party. At the other, you have personalist dictatorships like that of, say, Saddam Hussein, where rivals are purged, loyalists are rewarded, cults of personality flourish, and all authority runs through the glorious leader.

The political science literature suggests that personalist dictatorships are more erratic and dangerous to the outside world than other sorts of autocracies. [...]

While the world's news readers may long have thought of [...] Putin as a dictator, most Russia analysts and policymakers saw the Kremlin differently. And for most of Putin's nearly 23-year journey in power, they were right to do so. What existed was a complicated regime beyond one man where lots of people exerted influence and could check Putin's impulses. [...]

A key reason that many wise foreign policy hands thought Russia was bluffing about an invasion was that they assumed Putin wasn't making his decisions alone. This assumption informed much of Western strategy. Experts believed that threatening Russian oligarchs with sanctions, for instance, would encourage Putin's inner circle to push back against war. [...]

[...] Impressions about a Russia dominated by "oligarchs" froze into legend and did not keep up with their effective liquidation as a class. [...]

Though Americans may think of Russia as a society used to tyrants, this is subtly missing the point. The post-Stalin Soviet Union was a collectively ruled, civilian-led authoritarian regime, not one-man rule. Stalin died when Putin was less than 5 months old, meaning the ability to spot the warning signs of personalist dictatorship are almost as distant to Russians as Hitler is to the Germans.

What can we expect next in this new phase of Putinism? Unfortunately, the political science literature makes grim reading for Russians. [...] oil-rich autocrats are better positioned to repress dissent at home while resisting international pressure. Research also comprehensively shows that leaders like Putin tend to be removed only by death or a coup. The more intense the personalization of a government, the harder it is to execute a coup[...]

There is a ray of hope, however. Of the world's wealthier authoritarian states, Russia is arguably the only one to briefly have had something of a democracy and a free society in its modern history [...] That may make some of Russia's elites and regular citizens more likely to push back rather than accept a deeper descent into autocracy.'

The terrible truth so many experts missed about Russia before its Ukraine invasion. (slate.com)

[Gothos]

Right, so this is happening.

I didn't believe it would until it did. This war is a completely insane proposition. Putin is completely insane. And seeing how the war isn't exactly going to plan, the prospect of an escalation is making my skin crawl. Can't imagine how people over the border feel, but we're with you, for what that's worth. It's not enough, it's too late, but it's what we've got.

Amazing job from Ukraine holding on. It's inspiring. I'm completely convinced that if they couldn't hold with boots on the ground and Putin reached his objectives on schedule, none of the sanctions or condemnations or whathaveyou would be even happening. Russia is giving an humilliating performance so far, though with maskirovka I wouldn't ever assume this is all they're capable of. There's several reasons why they could be throwing cannon fodder right now, and I'm sure wiser heads than me are keeping that in mind.

As far as Russia goes, from what I've seen coming out of the country in the last couple of days, the sanctions are having a solid impact, so that's a nice change from what came before. The government is extorting their own people for foreign currency. The rubel plummets, prices are soaring. However, I don't see the Russian people rising up against the regime. Best scenario I can see is a 'clean' coup with no civil war, though that feels like a fairytale dream. In any case, whatever happens, their economy and society could be shoved back in development decades. While I'm not jumping with joy that those folks are getting shafted for their leaders' insanity, I can't say I feel very sorry for them.

I hope that the EU (at least German/French) doctrine of appeasement and cooperation with Putin has been thoroughly and ultimately humiliated. I hope the West will not waver. Uncle Joe is showing some balls, pleasantly surprised.
Now, I used to see people wonder why post-WarsawPact countries jumped at the first chance to get into NATO. Now, I hope, it's clear. We'll be militarizing more now, and I think that's the right move.

Now I read Russians have shelled the power plant in Enerhodar, and a fire started in an administrative building. I wonder if it's meant to create a nuclear scare to disencourage a shift away from coal and gas in Europe. I somehow still don't believe that unit commanders would be insane enough to destroy an active reactor. I want to believe that.

[Macros]

The amount of people asking me how much work it will be to install solar PVs and electric heating systems this week is unreal.

[Morgoth]

Macros, on 04 March 2022 - 07:28 AM, said:

The amount of people asking me how much work it will be to install solar PVs and electric heating systems this week is unreal.

Could you do that for us when you come over? I'll pay you in terrible jokes.

[Tsundoku]

Morgoth, on 04 March 2022 - 07:47 AM, said:

Macros, on 04 March 2022 - 07:28 AM, said:

The amount of people asking me how much work it will be to install solar PVs and electric heating systems this week is unreal.

Could you do that for us when you come over? I'll pay you in terrible jokes.

How about all that filthy lawyer petrokroner spare change that falls down the back of your couch. Or the leftovers from your naked money fights. That should cover it.

Although I'd be washing the notes and coins, just to be sure ...

[Tiste Simeon]

Morgoth, on 04 March 2022 - 07:47 AM, said:

Macros, on 04 March 2022 - 07:28 AM, said:

The amount of people asking me how much work it will be to install solar PVs and electric heating systems this week is unreal.

Could you do that for us when you come over? I'll pay you in terrible jokes.

So you DO like terrible jokes?

[Aptorian]

Gothos, on 04 March 2022 - 12:33 AM, said:

Now I read Russians have shelled the power plant in Enerhodar, and a fire started in an administrative building. I wonder if it's meant to create a nuclear scare to disencourage a shift away from coal and gas in Europe. I somehow still don't believe that unit commanders would be insane enough to destroy an active reactor. I want to believe that.

I watched the coverage about the attack on the power plant this morning and actually got a bit mad at the press. It was being covered like a potential nuclear catastrophe.

I feel like the journalists did a terrible job of covering this. Playing in to peoples fears about nuclear power.

1. A nuclear power plant is a strategic asset. Of course Russia is going to want to control it.

2. It was reported like the Russians hit the nuclear power plant directly and the plant was on fire. Which is just irresponsible reporting. It's a side building. The actual reactor is, I certainly hope, covered in meters of thick reinforced concrete. It's not going to catch fire or explode just because a firefight takes place outside.

3. Reporting it like Russia wants to destroy the plant and cause a nuclear catastrophe is just stupid.

[Morgoth]

Tiste Simeon, on 04 March 2022 - 08:35 AM, said:

Morgoth, on 04 March 2022 - 07:47 AM, said:

Macros, on 04 March 2022 - 07:28 AM, said:

The amount of people asking me how much work it will be to install solar PVs and electric heating systems this week is unreal.

Could you do that for us when you come over? I'll pay you in terrible jokes.

So you DO like terrible jokes?

Indeed. I do on the other hand have a visceral reaction to jokes that are fundamentally offensive to the very concept of humour.

[Macros]

Something something Morgotiste

and to halt the derailement.

this article is awesome.

My link

[Macros]

And while we're at it, fuck China too

[Primateus]

Aptorian, on 04 March 2022 - 10:00 AM, said:

Gothos, on 04 March 2022 - 12:33 AM, said:

Now I read Russians have shelled the power plant in Enerhodar, and a fire started in an administrative building. I wonder if it's meant to create a nuclear scare to disencourage a shift away from coal and gas in Europe. I somehow still don't believe that unit commanders would be insane enough to destroy an active reactor. I want to believe that.

I watched the coverage about the attack on the power plant this morning and actually got a bit mad at the press. It was being covered like a potential nuclear catastrophe.

I feel like the journalists did a terrible job of covering this. Playing in to peoples fears about nuclear power.

1. A nuclear power plant is a strategic asset. Of course Russia is going to want to control it.

2. It was reported like the Russians hit the nuclear power plant directly and the plant was on fire. Which is just irresponsible reporting. It's a side building. The actual reactor is, I certainly hope, covered in meters of thick reinforced concrete. It's not going to catch fire or explode just because a firefight takes place outside.

3. Reporting it like Russia wants to destroy the plant and cause a nuclear catastrophe is just stupid.

Regardless of whether it was "just" the administrative building, active war fighting near nuclear powerplants, in a country like Ukraine where Chernobyl is, is very worrisome.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'"An aging man decided to destroy the world"

[...] "This is no longer the master chess player, the shrewd grand strategist. He is no longer a rational actor, even in the coldest and most cynical sense. He seemed unwell and unhinged[...]

[...] now it felt like a scene from "Macbeth." My intuition was that an aging man facing his own death had decided to destroy the whole world. Ukraine is very possibly fighting for all of us."'

- Marci Shore, 'professor of modern European intellectual history at Yale University, focusing on 20th and 21st century Central and Eastern Europe. She is the author of "The Ukrainian Night: An Intimate History of Revolution"'

'He has decided to destroy the whole world': Six global voices on Putin's invasion of Ukraine - CNN


Garry Kasparov:

'[...] It's impossible not to be emotional, but let us also be rational and focus our rage on the facts.

No treaty forbids NATO nations from fighting to defend in Ukraine. It's a choice based on the risk of Putin going nuclear, many say. That arming Ukrainians is an acceptable risk of WWIII & the citizenship of the pilot or soldier changes Putin's nuclear calculus, or NATO's.

If they care so much about the fine print and think Putin does too, ask Zelensky to issue Ukrainian passports to any volunteer to fly in combat. Sell jets to Ukraine for €1 each and paint UKR flags on them. Do you think Putin will care? Is it worth the lives lost?

Biden & others insist NATO would retaliate should Putin attack Baltic members. Watching Ukraine, I am not sure of that at all, and Putin won't be either. If the calculation is about nuclear risk, it's no different over Estonia than Ukraine. Don't say "Putin would never".'

Risk and costs are higher now because the "reasonable" people in the West always choose lower risk today to guarantee higher risk tomorrow. [...]

There is no waiting this out. This isn't chess; there's no draw, no stalemate. Either Putin destroys Ukraine and eventually hits NATO with an even greater catastrophe, or Putin falls in Russia. [...]

[...] the price of stopping a dictator always goes up. What would have been enough to stop Putin 8 years or 6 months or 2 weeks ago is not enough today, and the price will rise again tomorrow.'

(20) Garry Kasparov on Twitter: "We are witnessing, literally watching live, Putin commit genocide on an industrial scale in Ukraine while the most powerful military alliance in history stands aside. It's impossible not to be emotional, but let us also be rational and focus our rage on the facts. 1/13" / Twitter


'"Yes, He Would": Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes

Putin is trying to take down the entire world order

[...] Fiona Hill, one of America's most clear-eyed Russia experts, someone who has studied Putin for decades, worked in both Republican and Democratic administrations and has a reputation for truth-telling

[...] "Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones.

[...] Every time you think, 'No, he wouldn't, would he?' Well, yes, he would, [...] And he wants us to know that, of course. It's not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we're going to do to head them off."

[...] He's going to be 70 in October. [...] There are plenty of politicians out there that are way over 70. [... But] It's old for Russians. And Putin's not looking so great, he's been rather puffy-faced. We know that he has complained about having back issues. Even if it's not something worse than that, it could be that he's taking high doses of steroids, or there may be something else. There seems to be an urgency for this that may be also driven by personal factors. [...]"

[...]

Do you think Putin's current goal is reconstituting the Soviet Union[...]

"It's reestablishing Russian dominance of what Russia sees as the Russian "Imperium." I'm saying this very specifically because the lands of the Soviet Union didn't cover all of the territories that were once part of the Russian Empire. So that should give us pause.'

'Yes, He Would': Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes - POLITICO

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 04 March 2022 - 05:58 PM

[Malankazooie]

Brittney Griner (professional basketball player) detained in Russia. Something about having hashish oil in her luggage at the Moscow Airport.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Putin says sanctions introduced on Russia are equal to a "declaration of war"

[...] "Hence the demand to close the sky, but the implementation of this demand is associated with colossal and catastrophic consequences not only for Europe, but for the whole world," he said.'

Putin says sanctions introduced on Russia are equal to a "declaration of war" (cnn.com)

'Putin conjured the spectre of nuclear war[...] "As martyrs, we will go to heaven," he promised. "And they will just croak because they won't even have time to repent."' [2018]

Putin Lied About His Nuclear Doctrine and Promised Russians They Will Go to Heaven | The New Yorker

'"He had a devoutly Christian mother and has worn a crucifix around his neck for most of his life[...] Certainly, he has embraced the patronage of the Russian Orthodox Church and used it to advance his own political purposes domestically and internationally[...] that is a centuries-long tradition for Russia."


[...] the Christian faith seen in many Western countries is radically different from the Russian rendition of self-described, government-aligned religiosity.


[...]


"Russia is a longtime nemesis to the West, precisely because of its version of Christianity [...] Russian Orthodoxy for centuries saw itself as guardian of the true faith in contrast to Western Catholicism and Protestantism. Moscow, according to this lore, is the third Rome, the seat of the true Christendom [...]

Russian Orthodoxy has nearly always been a cheerleading nationalist subordinate to the state."


[...] Putin views himself as a "messianic figure, a savior, to reunite Eastern Orthodox churches under Moscow." [...]


[...] "Religion is hugely important for Putin's identity, for his psyche. He immerses himself in icy water to mark the festival of Epiphany, he wears his baptismal cross." [...]


[Putin:] "it is not possible today to have morality separated from religious values."'

What Does Vladimir Putin Believe About God? Why Some Say He Thinks He's a 'Messianic Figure' | CBN News

'Russia Accused of Bombing Ukrainians Trying to Evacuate


[...] Russia violated a cease-fire agreement struck just hours earlier.


"The Russians are continuing to bomb us and use artillery. It is crazy, [...] There is no cease-fire [...] and there is no cease-fire all along the route. Our civilians are ready to escape but they cannot escape under shelling."'

Ukraine Halts Evacuations in Mariupol and Volnovakha After Accusing Russia of Breaking Cease-Fire Deal (thedailybeast.com)

'[...] potential coup plotters are scared that they are listened to and can be killed first. There are people around Putin with KGB background who agree with him and are very happy now.

He is thinking about his personal security all the time.

It is not easy to prepare a coup.'

The more pain Russians feel, the more incentive Putin has - Alternet.org

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 05 March 2022 - 06:51 PM

[Mentalist]

Aptorian, on 04 March 2022 - 10:00 AM, said:

Gothos, on 04 March 2022 - 12:33 AM, said:

Now I read Russians have shelled the power plant in Enerhodar, and a fire started in an administrative building. I wonder if it's meant to create a nuclear scare to disencourage a shift away from coal and gas in Europe. I somehow still don't believe that unit commanders would be insane enough to destroy an active reactor. I want to believe that.

I watched the coverage about the attack on the power plant this morning and actually got a bit mad at the press. It was being covered like a potential nuclear catastrophe.

I feel like the journalists did a terrible job of covering this. Playing in to peoples fears about nuclear power.

1. A nuclear power plant is a strategic asset. Of course Russia is going to want to control it.

2. It was reported like the Russians hit the nuclear power plant directly and the plant was on fire. Which is just irresponsible reporting. It's a side building. The actual reactor is, I certainly hope, covered in meters of thick reinforced concrete. It's not going to catch fire or explode just because a firefight takes place outside.

3. Reporting it like Russia wants to destroy the plant and cause a nuclear catastrophe is just stupid.

To be fair, while the fire was in the training, admin buildings, there were also direct hits on the 1st reactor. Which is offline, but the radioactive material hasn't been removed. So IF the reactor shell was broken, then you could have had a leak.

*shrug* the media sensationalizing this is in large part from Zelensky and co, who are using every trick in the book to drum up international support to "close the sky". Which is dumb when talking about no fly zone--since UA is having incredible success with the Bayraktar drones.
Getting a bunch of patriot systems to ground the bomber planes over Kharkiv and remove Russian air superiority in the South would be sufficient, IMHO.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

I was wrong to assume that Putin can't honestly believe (as he claims) that he's going to Heaven---because he grew up in the (officially anti-religious) USSR, and because he's blatantly immoral (to say the least).

He actually was (apparently) raised with the religion: 'he had been secretly baptised by his mother' (1) and who was 'devoutly Christian', and he 'has worn a crucifix around his neck for most of his life' (2) (since he's not yet 70, that would include years before the fall of the USSR).

But someone so 'sinful' couldn't possibly believe they're going to Heaven? History proved otherwise a long time ago. In the context of the Russian Orthodox Church it's not very surprising: "Russian Orthodoxy has nearly always been a cheerleading nationalist subordinate to the state" (2), including the atrocities and 'sins' of the czars. Putin might even be excusing his sins as ultimately in service of the divine Russian Empire or the furtherance of the Russian Orthodox Church: 'the church celebrated the return of Crimea. [...] the Orthodox Patriarch Kirill a decade ago called Putin "a miracle of God".'(1)

As Putin insinuated with 'they won't even have time to repent [before dying from a hypersonic nuclear assault]', (3) Eastern Orthodoxy allows people to confess and magically 'repent' for their sins to gain access to Heaven: 'God accepts all repentant sinners tenderly and rejoices greatly in their act of repentance. All sins are forgivable except one: blasphemy against the Holy Spirit.' (4)

'they think that the main way Scripture gets its meaning is through its liturgical use, meaning its use in prescribed religious ritual and practice.

The idea in Eastern Orthodoxy is that what's most essential to the religion is not a set of beliefs to be read and thought about, but rather a set of practices engaged with collectively. Wearing an academic monocle, I'd even go so far as to say they are sociotechnical practices, because Orthodox ritual involves many material symbols: icons of saints, ornate alters, candles, regalia, crosses. Protestantism tends to view these material aspects of religion as incidental distractions. Orthodoxy sees them essential, as actually holy objects. It is, perhaps, a more primitive attitude to the relationship between the spiritual and the material. [...] ritual that reproduces the social arrangements of the religion.' (5)

'"He immerses himself in icy water to mark the festival of Epiphany, he wears his baptismal cross." [...] Putin views himself as a "messianic figure, a savior, to reunite Eastern Orthodox churches under Moscow."' (2)

'the 1853-56 [first Crimean] war was personal for Putin and Russians remembered it as if it was just yesterday. Christian Russia had been shocked that the Christian west had sided with Muslim Turks and defeated them.' (1)

He must be loving those Turkish drones destroying his tanks and armored vehicles!...

'In 988 Vladimir king of the Rus was the first Christian convert. In Kyiv he summoned the whole city to the banks of the Dnieper River for a mass baptism. Holy Mother Russia was born. In 2019 the Ukrainian church broke with the Russian church and declared its independence. But Putin and the Russian church will not accept this because it is the site of the imagined mother church for all the Rus.

[...] this sense of a holy destiny of Kyiv and Mother Russia has never left and Putin is its champion. Under Putin the Orthodox church has boasted that it is building and opening three churches a day[...]

[... Putin:] "We see many of the Euro-Atlantic countries are actually rejecting their roots, including the Christian values that constitute the basis of western civilisation. They are denying the moral principles and all traditional identities: national, cultural, religious and even sexual."

Kyiv must be taken, in his mind, to preserve the Christian battle.' (1)

1 Vladimir Putin: a miracle defender of Christianity or the most evil man? | Tim Costello | The Guardian

2 What Does Vladimir Putin Believe About God? Why Some Say He Thinks He's a 'Messianic Figure' | CBN News

3 Putin Lied About His Nuclear Doctrine and Promised Russians They Will Go to Heaven | The New Yorker

4 Ask An Eastern Orthodox Christian: Do you have to do confession? - SpokaneFāVS (spokanefavs.com)

5 https://www.facebook...101874208458031