[Mentalist]

UAF drones hit the Gazprom gas processing plant in Surgut.

This is Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Region, the heartland of Moscow's Western Siberian oil country. About 2.6k clicks from Kharkiv.

Grain prices are collapsing in muscovy, b/c they are unable to export their (rather good) harvest. This could have really bad consequences for global food security in a mid-term perspective. Aside from some shortages now, muscovite farmers who are being squeezed by high interest rates on borrowing they can't repay (b/c they can't sell their harvest) are not really incentivized to sow winter grains, which could have really bad ramifications by next spring.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 16 October 2026 - 10:50 PM, said:

muscovite farmers who are being squeezed by high interest rates on borrowing they can't repay (b/c they can't sell their harvest) are not really incentivized to sow winter grains, which could have really bad ramifications by next spring.

Couldn't Putin just order them to?

[Macros]

Maybe engage in some form of collectivisation?

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 16 October 2026 - 11:08 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 16 October 2026 - 10:50 PM, said:

muscovite farmers who are being squeezed by high interest rates on borrowing they can't repay (b/c they can't sell their harvest) are not really incentivized to sow winter grains, which could have really bad ramifications by next spring.

Couldn't Putin just order them to?

And what money will they buy the seeds with, if their current harvest is worth less than what they spent to grow it?

Macros, on 17 October 2026 - 10:05 AM, said:

Maybe engage in some form of collectivisation?

realistically, a lot of smaller landholders will probably get bought out by the large agro-holdings, that have close links to the Kremlin and the Ministry of Agriculture, specifically. The smaller farmers will go belly-up, while the bigger ones will get some bailouts, plus they have more resources to weather the losses.

[Macros]

And here I was just making a Stalin joke

[Mentalist]

Huge drone strike on St Petersburg.

oil terminal, Ozon warehouse (2nd biggest logistics distributor after Wildberries), as well as a VK data center.

According to Zelensky, intel-sharing with the US is back, but StarLink throttle is still in effect. Meanwhile, Rubio lied on national TV, stating that UAF doesn't have access to the military version of Starlink, StarShield, which is flat out un-true. So lil' Marco officially retires as the last Moscow hawk- we all knew it, but here's the final confirmation.

Romania shot down 2 orc drones in its coastal zone. The orcs have been quite aggressive in trying to shut down shipping in Romanian and Bulgarian waters of the Black Sea.

[Werthead]

Romanian F-16s engaged and destroyed two Russian drones that were overflying Romanian territorial waters. Apparently both Romania and Bulgaria may deploy fighters to destroy anything that enters their airspace or territorial waters.

Ukraine has hit a depot of the online retailer Ozon in St. Petersburg, setting fire to the entire facility. Ukrainian drones simultaneously hit more oil production facilities and at least one data centre belonging to the IT company VK.

Ukraine recovered a Russian glide bomb intact after it hit an apartment building in Sumy and bounced off into a nearby reservoir. If it had detonated, it would have likely killed or severely wounded many civilians.

Ukraine has recaptured the village of Pavlivka on the western Zaporizhzhia front. This sector was highly active at the start of the year and has been quieter since the start of summer.

The ISW assessment is that Ukraine has retaken an amount of territory equal to all Russian gains since the end of February. We are very close to the crossover point where Ukraine liberates more territory in 2026 than it lost, for the very first time in the war.

Russian and Ukrainian units are increasingly engaging one another in the forested, formerly waterlogged lands created by the destruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir.

Russian use of helicopters as artillery gunships, already on the wane, may be terminated altogether after multiple Mi-28s over Belgorod Oblast were shot down by drones. This tactic has been credited with multiple Russian campaign victories in 2023 and 2024 before the practice became too dangerous.

Israel has, for the first time, accused Russian bot farms of working for Iran and against Israeli interests, citing the drop of such traffic after Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centres.

Blatant Russian lying over its battlefield position is escalating. The Kremlin claims its forces have taken Malokaterynivka and advanced to within 5km of Zaporizhzhia City. Ukraine remains in firm control of Malokaterynivka.

The BARS jet-powered drone has been shown in action intercepting multiple jet-powered Gerans. The number of successful jet Geran strikes on Ukraine has dropped somewhat in the last couple of weeks, though this may also be down to new tactics by existing AA systems.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 October 2026 - 08:00 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has undertaken another secretive operation in the small part of Sumy Oblast under Russian control. 29 Russian soldiers were captured, 108 killed in a seven-week operation that cleared over 600 hectares.

Trump's current rant on the conflict is the most unhinged load of bollocks I think he's ever uttered, and it's a competitive field.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 20 October 2026 - 07:07 PM, said:

Ukraine has undertaken another secretive operation in the small part of Sumy Oblast under Russian control. 29 Russian soldiers were captured, 108 killed in a seven-week operation that cleared over 600 hectares.

Trump's current rant on the conflict is the most unhinged load of bollocks I think he's ever uttered, and it's a competitive field.

Do you mean this one?

https://www.aljazeer...over-talks-arms

IDK, seems like he's said much more unhinged things in the past... though it did include this:

Quote

Russia frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven't been doing much.

https://transcripts....0-19/segment/01

[Werthead]

Allegedly Witkoff's proposals included a direct, Article 5-analogue security guarantee to Ukraine straight from the United States, which took Zelensky by surprise, and may make an end to the war on current lines more palatable. Witkoff is taking the proposal to Russia.

Mood music from Moscow is that the Donbas remains their firm red line but the proposals are more interesting than previous ones. One Kremlin source even reportedly said that peace maybe "closer than ever before," which can be technically correct whilst still meaning that peace is not going to happen.

I can't see them bridging this last hill though. Ukraine would be insane to give up Slovyansk and Kramatorsk unfought and then rely on Trump's goodwill or the goodwill of an unknown President three terms down the line who decides he doesn't want to risk World War III over keeping Russia east of the Dnipro. Russia does not want the risk of a NATO peacekeeping force on Ukrainian soil five minutes after the war ends.

But if Putin wants to end the war imminently so he can salvage the Russian economy, this might be his last window of opportunity to do so.

I consider that outcome doubtful at best.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 20 October 2026 - 10:54 PM

[Morgoth]

Well, if Trump somehow manages to fully realize an American cessation of their trade restrictions against Russia, the world will become an even more interesting place for sure. Not to mention that the war will last for a much longer time.

[Werthead]

Russia lost 2,250 verified casualties yesterday, the highest one-day figure since the start of the invasion. It's believed there have been days when the true figure is much higher, but it has not been possible to verify within the 24-hour window. The current assessment is that Russia suffered 363,820 casualties (KIA, wounded, captured) in 2026 and 1,572,790 since the start of the invasion in February 2022, with between 500,000 and 600,00 KIA.

Ukraine hit the 75th Arsenal near Moscow overnight, causing significant damage to a repair and re-arming facility for Russian armoured vehicles.

Rapid Ranger SAMs are now in service in Ukraine. Built in the UK, the vehicles are fast-moving AA systems capable of targeting long-range drones.

Vietnam is supplying humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

[Werthead]

Reports just emerging of a ceasefire in Kherson Oblast. The ceasefire was apparently negotiated by Melania Trump (!) and would allow the safe evacuation of the town of Oleshky. The town sits on the southern (left) bank of the Dnipro barely 4km from Kherson city, but has been in an odd position, with Russia unable to exert full control (despite occasional Russian troops visiting to proclaim control) and with a civilian population still located there. This is basically a civilian town located in the grey zone, potentially the only one of its kind in all of Ukraine.

The Russian Proton Plant in Oryol has taken massive damage. Four Storm Shadows hit the facility in rapid succession, starting enormous fires. This facility builds electronics and semiconductor components for Russia's air defence systems and missiles. The Ukrainian missiles apparently flew past the facility, making it look like they were heading elsewhere, but abruptly change couse and hit the factory before Russian interceptors could respond.

[Mentalist]

Oleshky is under muscovite control, and its soldiers are using the city (and its remaining civilians) as human shields, as they launch daily drone strikes into Kherson across the river (see: "human safari")

The city has no active services or businesses, or functioning government. its utilities, and all infrastructure was destroyed by the flood following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.

The problem is, the orcs, who formally control the city, are not allowing remaining civilians to leave. The roads are mined, and all transport is targetted by orc drones. occasionally, some people make their way by foot to Radens'k (17 km away) to purchase some supplies. Ukrainian troops have done several air drops (via drones) of supplies to the remaining civilians, but a lot of these were looted by the orc soldiers who are also in teh city (and also largely starving, b/c the Ukrainians are likewise destroying military supplies into the city, so they can only be supplied by drones)

Ukraine has been lobbying for a ceasefire to evacuate the remaining civilians out of the city for a while (this was raised at UNGA, and the Pope recently spoke to putler, and Oleshky was the topic). Melania was previously linked to several occasions when Ukrainian children were returned home from muscovite abductions, so her being names in connection with a humanitarian initiative isn't new.

We will have to wait and see whether this initiative is successful or not.

[Werthead]

The presidents of Finland and Norway held a joint call with Putin and Putin apparently just ranted at them for 90 minutes about Slavic historical minutiae. The only solid thing they got from him was his minimal demand was still for the Donbas, and peace would not be possible until he had achieved that.

Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian units have advanced around 14km on the Kupyansk front, having outflanked Russian positions using gas pipes. Waiting for better reporting on what that actually means.

[Werthead]

Ukraine hit the Marinovka Airfield, Volgograd today, destroying two Su-34s, reducing Russia's on-paper fleet to 138. Due to shortages of spare parts and some planes stripped to repair others, combat-effective numbers are believed to be noticeably lower. 

Russian casualties for October 2026 are anticipated to exceed 50,000 this month, the highest one-month figure since the start of the invasion.

Automated turrets in Kyiv have claimed their 50th shoot-down since their introduction a couple of months ago.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian cruise missiles have been hitting targets more than 600km inside Russian territories, including airfields. Russian commentators now urging that aircraft be moved even further back from Ukraine's borders, which of course makes the time they spend near Ukraine less and less.

The Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Russia took multiple hits and the whole thing is now on fire. The shots look pretty apocalyptic.

[Mentalist]

The orcs hit a railway station in Dnipro last night, killing 16 people. There have been multiple blackouts in Ukrainian cities due to long-range strikes.

The strike on the refinery is most likely a response to that. Novak (the orc energy minister) reported that 4 refineries and one gas procesing plant was targetted, but the rest were adequately defended by anti-air.

Ushakov is indignant that Ukraine has "disobeyed" a request from trump.

Meanwhile the evacuation mission from Oleshky is underway. The Ukrainian ombudsman and the head of Zelensky's part faction in the Rada are overseeing the evacuation. Of the roughly 1000 people that wanted to leave, about 3/4s expressed desire to go to Ukrainian-held territory. So they'll be bussed to Anapa in Krasnodar Krai, and from there fly to Belarus. Ukrainian delegation and media are with them each step of the way.

The US seems to have approved a contract to produce 500 Patriot missiles for Ukraine. These are PAC-3, so tehy're capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.

No idea when Lockheed-Martin will actually produce them, though.

[Lady Bliss]

Mentalist, on 30 October 2026 - 08:08 PM, said:

The orcs hit a railway station in Dnipro last night, killing 16 people. There have been multiple blackouts in Ukrainian cities due to long-range strikes.

The strike on the refinery is most likely a response to that. Novak (the orc energy minister) reported that 4 refineries and one gas procesing plant was targetted, but the rest were adequately defended by anti-air.

Ushakov is indignant that Ukraine has "disobeyed" a request from trump.

Meanwhile the evacuation mission from Oleshky is underway. The Ukrainian ombudsman and the head of Zelensky's part faction in the Rada are overseeing the evacuation. Of the roughly 1000 people that wanted to leave, about 3/4s expressed desire to go to Ukrainian-held territory. So they'll be bussed to Anapa in Krasnodar Krai, and from there fly to Belarus. Ukrainian delegation and media are with them each step of the way.

The US seems to have approved a contract to produce 500 Patriot missiles for Ukraine. These are PAC-3, so tehy're capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.

No idea when Lockheed-Martin will actually produce them, though.

US promises aren’t worth much anymore.

This post has been edited by Lady Bliss: 31 October 2026 - 12:02 AM

[Werthead]

Ukraine hitting multiple Russian refineries, clearly the energy truce (which Russia never followed) is over.

Interesting seeing a Ukrainian official on Russian-occupied soil talking to Russian counterparts for the first time since February 2022. Some criticism of that but the humanitarian mission actually seems to be working. The evacuated residents have arrived in Belarus, from where they are (supposedly) to go to Ukraine, so hopefully that actually happens.

Moscow under a substantial drone attack, all the airports are closed and something is burning near one of the main airports.

Oleshky evacuees arriving in Kyiv. The truce and the ceasefire seemed to hold, the first of its kind to do so.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 31 October 2026 - 11:46 PM