[Mentalist]

UAF drones hit the Gazprom gas processing plant in Surgut.

This is Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Region, the heartland of Moscow's Western Siberian oil country. About 2.6k clicks from Kharkiv.

Grain prices are collapsing in muscovy, b/c they are unable to export their (rather good) harvest. This could have really bad consequences for global food security in a mid-term perspective. Aside from some shortages now, muscovite farmers who are being squeezed by high interest rates on borrowing they can't repay (b/c they can't sell their harvest) are not really incentivized to sow winter grains, which could have really bad ramifications by next spring.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 16 October 2026 - 10:50 PM, said:

muscovite farmers who are being squeezed by high interest rates on borrowing they can't repay (b/c they can't sell their harvest) are not really incentivized to sow winter grains, which could have really bad ramifications by next spring.

Couldn't Putin just order them to?

[Macros]

Maybe engage in some form of collectivisation?

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 16 October 2026 - 11:08 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 16 October 2026 - 10:50 PM, said:

muscovite farmers who are being squeezed by high interest rates on borrowing they can't repay (b/c they can't sell their harvest) are not really incentivized to sow winter grains, which could have really bad ramifications by next spring.

Couldn't Putin just order them to?

And what money will they buy the seeds with, if their current harvest is worth less than what they spent to grow it?

Macros, on 17 October 2026 - 10:05 AM, said:

Maybe engage in some form of collectivisation?

realistically, a lot of smaller landholders will probably get bought out by the large agro-holdings, that have close links to the Kremlin and the Ministry of Agriculture, specifically. The smaller farmers will go belly-up, while the bigger ones will get some bailouts, plus they have more resources to weather the losses.

[Macros]

And here I was just making a Stalin joke

[Mentalist]

Huge drone strike on St Petersburg.

oil terminal, Ozon warehouse (2nd biggest logistics distributor after Wildberries), as well as a VK data center.

According to Zelensky, intel-sharing with the US is back, but StarLink throttle is still in effect. Meanwhile, Rubio lied on national TV, stating that UAF doesn't have access to the military version of Starlink, StarShield, which is flat out un-true. So lil' Marco officially retires as the last Moscow hawk- we all knew it, but here's the final confirmation.

Romania shot down 2 orc drones in its coastal zone. The orcs have been quite aggressive in trying to shut down shipping in Romanian and Bulgarian waters of the Black Sea.

[Werthead]

Romanian F-16s engaged and destroyed two Russian drones that were overflying Romanian territorial waters. Apparently both Romania and Bulgaria may deploy fighters to destroy anything that enters their airspace or territorial waters.

Ukraine has hit a depot of the online retailer Ozon in St. Petersburg, setting fire to the entire facility. Ukrainian drones simultaneously hit more oil production facilities and at least one data centre belonging to the IT company VK.

Ukraine recovered a Russian glide bomb intact after it hit an apartment building in Sumy and bounced off into a nearby reservoir. If it had detonated, it would have likely killed or severely wounded many civilians.

Ukraine has recaptured the village of Pavlivka on the western Zaporizhzhia front. This sector was highly active at the start of the year and has been quieter since the start of summer.

The ISW assessment is that Ukraine has retaken an amount of territory equal to all Russian gains since the end of February. We are very close to the crossover point where Ukraine liberates more territory in 2026 than it lost, for the very first time in the war.

Russian and Ukrainian units are increasingly engaging one another in the forested, formerly waterlogged lands created by the destruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir.

Russian use of helicopters as artillery gunships, already on the wane, may be terminated altogether after multiple Mi-28s over Belgorod Oblast were shot down by drones. This tactic has been credited with multiple Russian campaign victories in 2023 and 2024 before the practice became too dangerous.

Israel has, for the first time, accused Russian bot farms of working for Iran and against Israeli interests, citing the drop of such traffic after Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centres.

Blatant Russian lying over its battlefield position is escalating. The Kremlin claims its forces have taken Malokaterynivka and advanced to within 5km of Zaporizhzhia City. Ukraine remains in firm control of Malokaterynivka.

The BARS jet-powered drone has been shown in action intercepting multiple jet-powered Gerans. The number of successful jet Geran strikes on Ukraine has dropped somewhat in the last couple of weeks, though this may also be down to new tactics by existing AA systems.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 October 2026 - 08:00 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has undertaken another secretive operation in the small part of Sumy Oblast under Russian control. 29 Russian soldiers were captured, 108 killed in a seven-week operation that cleared over 600 hectares.

Trump's current rant on the conflict is the most unhinged load of bollocks I think he's ever uttered, and it's a competitive field.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 20 October 2026 - 07:07 PM, said:

Ukraine has undertaken another secretive operation in the small part of Sumy Oblast under Russian control. 29 Russian soldiers were captured, 108 killed in a seven-week operation that cleared over 600 hectares.

Trump's current rant on the conflict is the most unhinged load of bollocks I think he's ever uttered, and it's a competitive field.

Do you mean this one?

https://www.aljazeer...over-talks-arms

IDK, seems like he's said much more unhinged things in the past... though it did include this:

Quote

Russia frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven't been doing much.

https://transcripts....0-19/segment/01

[Werthead]

Allegedly Witkoff's proposals included a direct, Article 5-analogue security guarantee to Ukraine straight from the United States, which took Zelensky by surprise, and may make an end to the war on current lines more palatable. Witkoff is taking the proposal to Russia.

Mood music from Moscow is that the Donbas remains their firm red line but the proposals are more interesting than previous ones. One Kremlin source even reportedly said that peace maybe "closer than ever before," which can be technically correct whilst still meaning that peace is not going to happen.

I can't see them bridging this last hill though. Ukraine would be insane to give up Slovyansk and Kramatorsk unfought and then rely on Trump's goodwill or the goodwill of an unknown President three terms down the line who decides he doesn't want to risk World War III over keeping Russia east of the Dnipro. Russia does not want the risk of a NATO peacekeeping force on Ukrainian soil five minutes after the war ends.

But if Putin wants to end the war imminently so he can salvage the Russian economy, this might be his last window of opportunity to do so.

I consider that outcome doubtful at best.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 10:54 PM

[Morgoth]

Well, if Trump somehow manages to fully realize an American cessation of their trade restrictions against Russia, the world will become an even more interesting place for sure. Not to mention that the war will last for a much longer time.