[Mentalist]

Trump pronounced an "energy ceasefire"

several hours later, the orcs hit a thermal power plant in Kharkiv with jet-powered drones.

[Tiste Simeon]

Seems Ukraine has hit a couple of Yandex data centres and Russian bot activity has dropped quite significantly? I even saw one American politician say something about "Ukraine best not meddle in our midterms" when commenting on this, which is unintentionally hilarious.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has hit three data centres in Russia and, amusingly, Tom's Hardware and some other sites are tracking a significant drop of pro-Russian BS across social media platforms worldwide. 78% of Yandex's cloud network has stopped taking incoming connections.

Trump has announced that Russia has agreed to an energy ceasefire but no information has been passed to Kyiv. Zelensky has informed Ukrainian forces to prepare to hold fire on Russian energy infrastructure. However, three cruise missiles than hit a power plant in Kharkiv, triggering a Ukrainian response.

Multiple Republicans have broken ranks to say they will block any attempt to buy Russian oil, using existing legislation.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree." [...]

Trump made a similar announcement last month, but neither party confirmed that there was a deal. Both Russia and Ukraine continued attacking energy infrastructure. [...]

"Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

[...] after Trump's announcement, Zelensky told Axios, "If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready, and we will accept it."

https://www.axios.co...sefire-zelensky

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 11 October 2026 - 06:59 PM, said:

Quote

Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree." [...]

Trump made a similar announcement last month, but neither party confirmed that there was a deal. Both Russia and Ukraine continued attacking energy infrastructure. [...]

"Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

[...] after Trump's announcement, Zelensky told Axios, "If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready, and we will accept it."

https://www.axios.co...sefire-zelensky

Someone didn't tell Moscow about it, so it's moot already

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

What was Trump even thinking?

Trying to get Ukraine to let their guard down? But his administration should know by now that wouldn't work.

Mislead his supporters into thinking he negotiated a deal?

Is it just that he has dementia?

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 October 2026 - 07:13 PM

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 11 October 2026 - 07:13 PM, said:

What was Trump even thinking?

Trying to get Ukraine to let their guard down? But his administration should know by now that wouldn't work.

Mislead his supporters into thinking he negotiated a deal?

Is it just that he has dementia?

The obvious answer is that he's trying to mess around with the markets, so that people close to him can make some money on the market jumps from the rumour mill.

If you want to be more generous, he keeps trying to make concessions to Moscow to get them to curb their aggression, and each time, Moscow is demonstrably stomping over his statements of "peace", thus demonstrating, quite publicly, that the US has no leverage to actually stop this war.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 11 October 2026 - 08:05 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 11 October 2026 - 07:13 PM, said:

What was Trump even thinking?

Trying to get Ukraine to let their guard down? But his administration should know by now that wouldn't work.

Mislead his supporters into thinking he negotiated a deal?

Is it just that he has dementia?

The obvious answer is that he's trying to mess around with the markets, so that people close to him can make some money on the market jumps from the rumour mill.

Hmm, while most markets were closed, there is 24/7 trading for 10-Barrel WTI Crude Futures... though Brent would be more directly impacted. Or perhaps he didn't expect Russia to strike so soon.

Update from the Financial Times:

Quote

The Trump administration is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe.

[...] lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. [...] threat[ening] to cut off intelligence sharing and Purl — the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List mechanism for procuring US weapons for Ukraine.

[...] "[...] they are calling everyone [in Europe],"

https://www.ft.com/c...2c-76f635164031

[Werthead]

When all this is long, long over and Trump is in the ground, Zelensky could make a killing by just publishing a book called Conversations with a Fuckwit: This Guy Gave Me More Grey Hairs Than Putin.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 12 October 2026 - 12:16 AM, said:

When all this is long, long over and Trump is in the ground, Zelensky could make a killing by just publishing a book called Conversations with a Fuckwit: This Guy Gave Me More Grey Hairs Than Putin.

Likely it will be a storm of such books in about two years, probably a staple subject for a while after from all kind of people who interacted with the creature.

This post has been edited by Chance: 12 October 2026 - 12:37 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Thought it was odd that the only news outlet carrying the Russian bot story seemed to be Tom's Hardware... the idea that it led to a massive decrease in Russian troll farm activity seems to be a misinterpretation:

Quote

as a rule, Russian state-sponsored troll farms and disinformation networks don't even run the bots directly through Yandex.

Since 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine, platforms like Reddit and Facebook have usually blocked traffic originating directly from known Russian corporate data centers. This is the reason why covert influence operations typically rely on residential proxy networks, compromised IoT devices, commercial VPNs, and – crucially – Western cloud hosting providers to disguise their IP addresses and mimic real localized users.

Some disinformation experts are already calling the idea that Ukrainian drones have hurt the Russian troll farms a "hoax." Their advice? To stop fighting disinformation with disinformation.

"It sucks to see so many pro-Ukraine accounts spreading disinformation and pretending it's ok just because it's an anti-Russia/pro-Ukraine narrative," wrote Caroline Orr Bueno, a behavioral scientist specializing in disinformation.

"If you want to defend democracy, you have to be willing to reject disinformation even when it's telling a story that you want to hear."

Yandex bot traffic drop isn't Russian disinfo collapse | Cybernews

Seems to be a similar story in The Verge though that's paywalled.

There was a massive decrease in Yandex bot activity, but their bots are primarily for indexing the internet (Yandex is the most used search engine in Russia).

[Werthead]

One bit of reporting doing the rounds is that Trump agreed to an energy ceasefire where Russia stops hitting Ukrainian refineries and Ukraine stops hitting Russian refineries. But Ukraine doesn't have any refineries. It had one, which wasn't running at full tilt anywhere, and was shut down on day one of the invasion in February 2022 and hasn't worked since. Russia has hit it a few times and then left it alone. So Trump was pushing for Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries and in return Russia could just do what the hell it wanted. Obviously this has not flown with the Ukrainians. They've now offered a total ceasefire of hitting all energy targets for both sides, but obviously Russia is not interested in that.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has made a pretty significant breakthrough on the Velyka Novosilka front in southern Donetsk and has driven significantly into the Russian lines, snipping off a salient into Ukrainian positions. Komar and Dachne are now contested and Ukrainian forces appear set on reaching Bahatyr, which anchors this entire sector. Russia is trying to reorganise its lines and reinforce but the cupboard is bare. This battle appears to have been successfully obfuscated by OPSEC efforts like the Lyman counter-offensive was, and now some positive rumblings about the Kharkiv front.

We're also seeing more Ukrainian efforts in Kostyantynivka, including the destruction of a significant Russian reinforcement column in the town. Russia still holds most of the town after heavy fighting, but Ukraine has inched out some more control from the northern edge of the settlement. Holding this position is vital to prevent Russian envelopment of the southern fortress belt.

[Mentalist]

Velyka Novosilka itself is E of the Mokri Yaly river, so trying to hold it (even should it be freed) without a major bridgehead is un-tenable.

The bigger issue is, even if you get there, then you are essentially back before the Surovikin Line to the south (past a few more villages' ruins along the river), where the summer 2023 offensive stalled and faltered. I have a very hard time envisioning an effective push towards the Azov Sea from there.

I get trying to cut the supply line between Velyka Novosilka and Hulyaipole so as to disrupt the push towards Orikhiv from the W; but I'm not sure how sustainable assaults on this frontline will be once the orcs finally stop trying to advance and go back to dug in positions;

[Cause]

Chance, on 12 October 2026 - 12:36 PM, said:

Werthead, on 12 October 2026 - 12:16 AM, said:

When all this is long, long over and Trump is in the ground, Zelensky could make a killing by just publishing a book called Conversations with a Fuckwit: This Guy Gave Me More Grey Hairs Than Putin.

Likely it will be a storm of such books in about two years, probably a staple subject for a while after from all kind of people who interacted with the creature.

His legacy will be garbage. Every republican who attacks him after he is out of office deserves our complete scorn. The rush for people to redeem themselves will be as swift as its self serving. There will be a few waves, once he is a lame duck, once he is out of office and once when he is dead.

I wonder if Ivanka will ever publish a book, pure speculation of course, but given all the creepy stuff he says about his daughter if it turns out he was inappropriate with her I wouldnt be the least bit shocked.

I guess Ivanka, Melanie and many others books may have to be published posthumously. Do NDAs survive the death of one of the parties?

[Werthead]

After Russia launched missiles at Kyiv tonight and the USA did not provide any warning, allowing the missiles to hit Kyiv's main power plants, Ukraine responded with over 500 drones targeting the Valukyi oil depot in Kursk, the Novoshakhtinsk plant in Rostov and multiple energy substations in Donetsk (plunging Donetsk city into darkness). Additional drone launches have been reported recently, presumabling looking for more energy targets across Russia and occupied territories.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 13 October 2026 - 10:56 PM, said:

After Russia launched missiles at Kyiv tonight and the USA did not provide any warning, allowing the missiles to hit Kyiv's main power plants, Ukraine responded with over 500 drones targeting the Valukyi oil depot in Kursk, the Novoshakhtinsk plant in Rostov and multiple energy substations in Donetsk (plunging Donetsk city into darkness). Additional drone launches have been reported recently, presumabling looking for more energy targets across Russia and occupied territories.

Good!

If your ally isn’t your ally, you don’t need to work with them.

Short sighted nonsense. The midterms are literally a month away. It’s too late to affect prices and even if you could it’s too late for it to really change the picture on the ground.

[Werthead]

Late-breaking, iffily-sourced story, so take with a pinch of salt. But some sources are saying that Mohammed bin Salman has spoken to Russian representatives and told them to stop supplying Iran and the Houthis with missiles and other weapons, or Saudi Arabia will turn its taps to full capacity and flood the market with cheap oil like it did during the Reagan era.

Take with a pinch of salt, especially with Saudi outlets for that oil crippled by the Iranian blockade and Houthi strikes, but that would rob Russia of its main income stream, would make Trump happy and probably loosen off on his criticisms of Ukraine.

[Mentalist]

 Werthead, on 14 October 2026 - 10:03 PM, said:

Late-breaking, iffily-sourced story, so take with a pinch of salt. But some sources are saying that Mohammed bin Salman has spoken to Russian representatives and told them to stop supplying Iran and the Houthis with missiles and other weapons, or Saudi Arabia will turn its taps to full capacity and flood the market with cheap oil like it did during the Reagan era.

Take with a pinch of salt, especially with Saudi outlets for that oil crippled by the Iranian blockade and Houthi strikes, but that would rob Russia of its main income stream, would make Trump happy and probably loosen off on his criticisms of Ukraine.

MBS is floundering, b/c his facade of a successful and secure post-petro-state is collapsing, as he can't effectively restrain the Houthis, and his puppet government in Aden can't deliver sufficient results.

Realistically, even if Saudis could max out exports, it won't bring diesel prices down here and now (in time to salvage the election).

At the same time, if they were to drop global oil price below 60, that would crash like half of US oil industry. So it's not actually something that trump & co want.

[Werthead]

Lypove, Zelena Dolyna and Kolodiazi on the Lyman front have all been confirmed as liberated by Ukrainian forces. Apparently Operation Vivaldi was supposed to have ended some time ago but because the Russian defences have proven so ineffectual and the reinforcements so lacklustre, Ukraine is still rolling forwards where it is supported by logistics.

Zakharivka on the Vovchansk front has been liberated, with surprisingly the Russian defenders agreeing to surrender rather than fighting on. Ukraine appears to have launched a moderate counter-offensive on this front which has regained some ground, but it is being under-reported for OPSEC.

As many as six Su-34M aircraft were damaged in a Ukrainian attack on the Borisoglebsk military airfield in Voronezh Oblast. Some of the aircraft may have been effectively destroyed, others crippled but may be eventually repairable.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 15 October 2026 - 08:20 PM