[Mentalist]

The orcs launched over 1000 drones on Ukraine in the past 24 hours

One of them hit a building in the historic center of L'viv. It's the building adjacent to the Bernadines Cathedral and monastery.

The site is world-famous, because it was used as a Krakow stand-in by Spielberg for Schindler's List. The square in front of what used to be the Halych Market is in that scene. And now that building is on fire. For no reason, b/c the only thing of note there is a public library.

Fifth year of this BS, but seeing the places I used to walk by as a kid (we even went inside that library when I was in Grade 2 or 3, as a walking school trip!) being struck by falling drones is insanely surreal.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 25 March 2026 - 01:10 AM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has responded with a large drone assault on multiple Russian targets, with over 250 drones reported in the strike (which is very large for Ukraine).

Ukraine has blown up two Zircon missiles in their launcher in Crimea, causing a substantial explosion. 7 Russian casualties reported, and the loss of the two Zircons and the launcher is very expensive.

[Mentalist]

VERY pretty fire in Ust-Luga, the orc's main Baltic terminal.

Apparently, 2 shadow fleet tankers are on fire. That should drive up those insurance rates.
Also, a hit on Vyborg. A patrol icebreaker got hit in the dock.
There was another drone that was aiming for the FSB HQ, but didn't make it, and hit an adjacent shipping corp's office instead.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 23 March 2026 - 06:28 PM, said:

...One Russian infantryman was screaming that each soldier needed to scrape together 20-30,000 rubles per attack to buy decent equipment just for one operation, and the donations that used to flow freely from back home have dried up...

Throwing soldiers into a meat grinder and charging their families for the privilege... if this is even a little accurate, it's astounding to me that massive chunks of the orc army haven't just revolted or deserted at this point.

[Mentalist]

The fun part is, the reason the donations have dried up, is b/c majority of the muscovite population is losing easy access to Telegram, where they are being collected.

And the reason they are losing access to TG is because the government is trying to force everyone to use VK's own messenger, MAX. Which is owned by VK, which is run by the sons of putler's inner circle.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has finally taken Berezove on the east Zaporizhzhia front. They've had it partially surrounded for weeks and were advancing past it on both sides, whilst leaving an escape corridor for the Russian troops. Whether they took it or were neutralised is unclear, but that's a pretty big win on that front.

Ukrainian drones hit Ust-Luga for the second day in a row, setting the terminal ablaze again. They also hit the Kirishi refinery, also in Leningrad Oblast, which refines around 6% of Russia's entire oil output, putting it out of action. This seems a deliberate strategy to make sure Russia does not benefit from oil revenues during the Iran conflict.

Another Russian shadow fleet tanker took a direct hit whilst in the Bosphorus, sustaining significant damage.

Russia's entire oil refinery output dropped by around 40% on its worst day in recent weeks due to Ukrainian drones shutting down multiple facilities

Zelensky has scored a nice PR victory by being feted in Riyadh and having high-level meetings with the Saudi government. Ukraine has agreed to provide drone expertise to the Gulf countries, potentially in return for major investments in rebuilding Ukraine after the war.

Three oil tankers now confirmed destroyed in the attacks on Ust-Luga this week.

Ukraine has scored a major battlefield success at Kostiantynivka, the next major target for Russia after Pokrovsk. Russian soldiers are annoyed because they are attacking up a narrow and easily-outflanked corridor into the city, because Russia can't close the eastern and NE approaches because Ukraine is somehow holding onto the outer suburbs of Chasiv Yar, and Russia can't advance until they are cleared.

One analysis showing that Ukraine has successfully hollowed-out Russia's air defence along long stretches of the front, particularly by hitting Crimea hard so AD units are pulled from near the actual combat front to defend Crimea against a naval invasion (which is never going to happen, but the idea scares the Russians), which makes hitting the front lines with drones and aircraft much easier. This is now having a serious impact on the Russian positions. In contrast, short and medium-range Ukrainian AD remains reasonably intact along the front (although Patriot supplies remain low), with anti-drone measures becoming increasingly effective.

[Mentalist]

And another hit at Ust-Luga, St Petersburg, and the Lukoil terminal at Vysotsk (outside Vyborg).

UAF is taking drastic steps to shut down the Baltic sea route.

[Werthead]

The Ust-Luga oil terminal was ablaze 12 hours after the second drone hit. The terminal has taken a huge pounding. Residents in St. Petersburg have been advised to keep windows closed.

Early and unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian tanks have broken through to Voskresenka on the east Zaporizhzhia front. Russia does not have enough drones in this sector to stop them.

It also looks like Ukraine has liberated Aleksandrograd (which Russia took back in August) and is starting to push Russia back further.

Also some signs that Ukraine's counter-attack on the Lyman front might be reversing the momentum rather than just fending off attacks, with Ukrainian forces looking like they are pushing from Ozerne towards Yampil. Again unconfirmed but interesting.

Putin has apparently started raiding the personal financial reserves of some of the oligarchs, asking for "voluntary donations" to the SMO.

Ukraine seems to be maintaining the momentum on the Primorskoe front, having advanced 2km in several days down the bank of the Dnipro and pushing the Russian forces back into Stepnohirsk, which must now be the next Ukrainian target. This is interesting as Ukrainian counter-offensives often peter out after scoring a battlefield success, but both here and on the Zaporizhzhia front they seem to be maintaining the pressure week after week.

Ust-Luga is still ablaze.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 March 2026 - 12:20 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

The Economist's newsletter today: Ukrainian drones

Quote

have been taking out Russian soldiers faster than the Kremlin can recruit them

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 28 March 2026 - 05:56 PM, said:

The Economist's newsletter today: Ukrainian drones

Quote

have been taking out Russian soldiers faster than the Kremlin can recruit them

Yeah, that's been the Unmanned Systems Corps' mission for the past 5 months. Fully embraced by the newly-appointed MoD (formerly Minister of Digital Transformations)

Recently they shifted focus from simple infantry manhunts to middle-strikes targeting the orc logistics. This was done by re-evaluating the bonus points drone operators get for taking out logistics, instead of individual soldiers (the points tehy exchange for extra drones and drone specific drone components) This is actually more harmful, since when the enemies are poorly equipped, their lifespan on average is even shorter- and havoing to carry all their supplies over the 10-20 km of grey zone makes them more vulnerable.

We'll have to see if they can keep up the same numbers once the leaf cover comes back, but as of right now, they're pretty on track to cause systemic attrition of the orc army, barring a new mobilization wave.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has used Flamingoes to damage the Promsintez explosives plant in Chapayevsk, and also hit the Yaroslavl oil refinery.

Ukraine's 37th Marine Brigade halted a Russian assault on the Oleksandrivskyi front, neutralising 27 Russian troops and a tank.

Ukraine's 65th Mechanised Brigade also destroyed a Russian mechanised column near Robotyne. Ten Russian vehicles were destroyed. Russia appears to be using motorised columns again due to a lack of leaf cover and also because Russian soldiers have kicked up a storm of protests over survivability. With a mechanised attack, it's easier to spot and stop the vehicles, but the soldiers at least have a better chance of surviving.

To that point, Ukraine's 118th Brigade has destroyed a significant Russian mechanised push near Mala Tokmachka in the Zaporizhzhia region, destroying a tank and BMP. Ten Russian soldiers KIA and ten more wounded.

Ukraine drones also hit Russian positions at (deep breath) Donetsk Airport, once again destroying Tor AA systems, EW sites, fuel logistics and Shahed launchers. Russia keeps using the airport despite it being easily hit by Ukrainian forces.

Some claims that Ukrainian forces are massing for a major push to retake Huliaipole, one of the largest settlements taken by Russia in the last two years and a major anchor for Russian positions in eastern Zaporizhzhia. Losing Huliaipole might force Russian troops into a major retreat to older positions east and south, because there's not much security beyond it. However, others saying this is a feint and Ukraine's big push will come elsewhere, or their strategic reserve is being held until the main Russian offensive effort is determined. Ukrainian tanks have been seen destroying Russian defensive positions near Huliaipole, again confirming a lack of Russian drone, AT or artillery support on this front.

Ukrainian units have also been seen in Temyrivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, north-east of Huliaipole, which gives them fire control over a major resupply route.

It appears Ust-Luga may have been tripled-tapped. The facility is pretty much screwed at this point, and major repair work cannot start whilst the Ukrainians keep hitting it. One drone attack may have overflown Ust-Luga and landed on Finnish territory in error.

Heavy attacks on Crimea are continuing, with MLRS systems destroyed. Ukraine also hit one of Russia's largest chemical fertiliser companies in Tolyatti, Samara.

Ukrainian intelligence intercepts apparently confirm Russia giving Tehran direct imaging of American, British, French and Gulf air and naval bases all across the Middle East.

The Kremlin is apparently annoyed about Zelensky locking down defence agreements between Ukraine and four countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Jordan) in a single 48-hour period.

Large protests planned in Russia against the shutting down of WhatsApp and Telegram fizzled out after significant numbers of arrests.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has shot down over 630 drones launched from Russia in the last 24 hours.

The Ust-Luga terminal is still ablaze after being hit four times in four days.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Zelensky has said Ukraine's allies have urged him to scale back attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure amid the ongoing global fuel crisis - but that they would only end if Russia stopped targeting Ukraine's first.

[...] After relentless Russian attacks on Ukraine's oil refineries, the latter now heavily relies on fuel imports - largely via Poland, Greece, Lithuania and Turkey.

Almost half of Ukraine's gas imports used to come from Hungary, but they were seemingly suspended

Zelensky says allies asked him to scale back attacks on Russian energy - BBC

But Ukraine is still successfully damaging Russian energy infrastructure:

Ukrainian drone attack shuts crucial unit at Russia's Novo-Ufimsk oil refinery, sources say | Reuters

And:

Quote

Three Ukrainian drones allegedly attacked a compressor station in southern Russia servicing the TurkStream export pipeline, Russian state-controlled natural gas giant Gazprom claimed [...] Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, TurkStream has become the last functioning Russian pipeline still supplying Europe

Russia's Gazprom claims Ukrainian strikes on TurkStream pipeline - Kyiv Independent

[Werthead]

Ukraine apparently has over 200 personnel operating in Libya, working in conjunction with the government in Tripoli in opposition to Russian Wagner mercenaries operating with opposing forces. Ukraine may have a drone base in the region it has been using to target Russian shadow fleet vessels.

During Russia's latest bombardment, Ukrainian defences took down 515 out of 542 drones, 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles and 24 out of 25 Kh-101 cruise missiles. However, they held fire on the 10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles once they realised they weren't hitting any targets of value. They were quite bemused to see most of those missiles land in empty fields or patches of ground. Russian Telegram sources saying they've had dud guidance equipment for a while and have had to start using it because decent guidance stuff is unavailable or too expensive to buy in.

Sweden has detained a shadow fleet tanker near Gotland.

Ukraine is fended off another attack on the Kostiantynivka front.

The Bashneft oil facility in Ufa took a hit and is ablaze, some 1400km from the Ukrainian border.

Another Russian S-30SM fighter has crashed in Crimea, meaning three aircraft were lost this week.

Today marks 1,500 days since the invasion began.

Multiple Russian sources saying Pantsir ammunition is running dangerously low, with air defence units having to ration their supplies.

Ukraine has initiated counter-strikes against the recent small Russian advances at the southern end of the eastern Zaporizhzhia front, securing the Zaporizkaya mine. This is a useful defensive position which commands the surrounding territory and makes it much harder for Russia to advance at all in this region. Meanwhile, Ukrainian counter-offensives continue further north.

Based on ISW reports, Russia did not advance decisively in Ukraine anywhere in March, and lost additional territory to Ukrainian counter-strikes. This was the first time this had happened since late 2023.

The May 9 Victory Day Parade has been cancelled.

Some reports that Russian's ATM payment system has crashed, people have been unable to withdraw cash for most of the day and some banking apps are not working.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 03 April 2026 - 08:11 PM

[Mentalist]

Some Z-heads are being incredibly alarmist about UA's SE push, due to the fact that they have advantage in drones and control "near sky", which allows the assault troops to use armor effectively. The 2 orc armies that are holding the front here are under-manned, and the reinforcements are allegedly being directed to maintain the push out of the newly-occupied Hulyaipole towards Orikhiv, the linchpin of Ukraine's defense in the S.

The Z-heads are worried that if UAF can continue their advance, they might be able to envelop the orc forces between Hulyaipole and Velyka Novosilka, and then have a clear advance "nearly all the way to Mariupol' " personally, I think this feels too doomer-ish, as we're talking nearly a 125 km advance, and it would take an enormous amount of troops to force and maintain a breach that deep and keep it wide enough (at least 50-80 km) to establish any semblance of secure logistics inside it.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

''The frontline is like Terminator': fighting robots give Ukraine hope in war with Russia

The unmanned ground vehicles come in various shapes and sizes. [...] Since spring 2024 their use has grown exponentially.

"This is what modern warfare looks like. Armies everywhere will have to robotise," [...]

Robots are increasingly taking a key role in combat and replacing human infantry. They have been kitted out with remote control machine guns and grenade launchers. [...] One system – a DevDroid TW 12.7 – defended a position for 45 days. [...]

"[...] A land robot arrives at your position and there is nothing you can do about it," said Bambi, a drone operator with the 25th airborne brigade. He added: "You can shoot a person in the chest and they stop firing. If you shoot a ground robot it doesn't feel pain. There is a guy looking at a screen who is going to fire back."

'The frontline is like Terminator': fighting robots give Ukraine hope in war with Russia | Ukraine | The Guardian

What's currently stopping a combination of armed UGV robots and airborne drones from holding territory? They should be able to bring their own charging stations. And detecting intruders could be done largely autonomously; maybe they could sit in power-saving mode until intruders are detected, and rely heavily on airborne drones.

[Werthead]

Azath Vitr (D, on 04 April 2026 - 12:53 PM, said:

What's currently stopping a combination of[size="2"] armed UGV robots and airborne drones from holding territory? They should be able to bring their own charging stations. And detecting intruders could be done largely autonomously; maybe they could sit in power-saving mode until intruders are detected, and rely heavily on airborne drones.

Ground combat robots are more complex than other drones and you absolutely need firm control over them meaning the range is limited. They are also a lot more expensive than other types of drones (at least the effective large fighting models are, obviously the ones that look like something from Robot Wars with an AK strapped to the top, not so much), eliminating a key benefit of drone technology.

You'd need tens of thousands of the expensive models to undertake any kind of large-scale ground offensive. And the operators would need to remain relatively close behind them (within fibre optic range at least) as they advanced. Not impossible, but it creates new logistical challenges.

[Macros]

Can we go ahead and get Orban the fuck out of power.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians have indicated that 6,000 Russian soldiers have been neutralised - killed, captured or wounded - in four days. Even they seem taken aback by that and were questioning the figures, but they seem accurate. Russia has used some its biggest "meat wave" attacks in the war to date in concentrated counter-attacks in  south-western and eastern Zaporizhzhia, Kostiantynivka and on the northern front near Lyman.

Russia has been redeploying military forces from Donetsk to the Zaporizhzhia front to shore up the situation there, which is interesting.

Apparently Ukraine has now received a formal request from unspecified allies to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. They have agreed in return for Russia doing the same. Which obviously they won't.

[Tapper]

Macros, on 05 April 2026 - 11:20 AM, said:

Can we go ahead and get Orban the fuck out of power.

Failing that, Hungary and Slovakia out of the EU. If they like Russian oil and Putin so much, let them put their money where their mouths are.