[Mentalist]

Ke-raaazy days.

basically, most stuff happening outside UA. All eyes are on Vienna, where OPEC officially meets tomorrow. Russia is begging for lowering quotas and higher prices. their prelim talks with Mexico, Venezuela and Saudis were not successful. Oil is dropping, and ruble is plunging. UA`s got electricity shortages, (since there`s a shortage of coal because of Donbass), and the first to fee it is.. *drum roll* CRIMEA. Out of the 4 high voltage lines into the peninsula, one is down for repairs, and 2 were turned off due to shortages in the system.

Uki Parliament`s being sworn in tomorrow, and they are supposed to declare the coalition. There were some major issues with things that the parties wanted to leave out of the Coalition Agreement. The big one, is, of course, NATO. All parties want it. The Pres tried really hard to leae all mentions of NATO out, because he`s afraid of angering VVH. But the parliament pushed it through, and it`s now a priority.

After that we`ve had a slew of Western politicians saying UA in NATO is a bad idea right now. Because reasons.
The problem is, that everyone has, as Homer Simpson once put it, "Lost creative control of the process". As such, the vocal plurality (i'm not sure it's majority yet) in UA are now pro-NATO as the lesser evil, and a Russia-deterrent. And given we're coming off a revolution, there's no way such a powerful sentiment can be easily ignored.
This, of course, is bad for the West, which REALLY doesn't want another Cold War if they can afford it. For that reason, Poroshenko as a "moderate pro-Western" Pres was such a good candidate for them. But he's proven to be inadequate for the challenge, and public opinion still considers him tolerable, but only just. His attempts to consolidate power are seen as major obstacles to true reforms.

With OPEC ready to spell doom for Russia's economy and imminent pressure on Crimea and Donbass, things are pretty much starting to roll to a conclusion. Russia is being driven closer and closer to making a decision. Either it'll be all-out war, or they have to bow out.

[Mentalist]

Veeeery interesting weekend.

On Friday, Russia learned what Black Friday means. Russia had it`s first ever oil and Ruble sale. Ruble plunged comparetively to dollar and euro, and Oil continued its downward spiral. Since beginning of the year, the ruble dropped some 40-odd percent of its value. But it`s ok.

Putin gave an interview to a propaganda outlet TV channel Lie Lifenews, which featured the following epic soundbite:



Basic meaning:

Quote

lookit, it doesn't matter that the ruble plunged dropped by 30% a little bit . See here: before we would sell 1 dollar worth of oil goods and get 32 rubles. Now we will sell 1 dollar worth of oil goods and get 48 rubles. ZOMG, TEH PROFITZ IN TEH BUDGETZ!!!! EPIC WIN!!!

Sadly, no one was suicidal competent enough to let VVH know that over 50% of stuff in RU is imported, and importers pay dollar prices for the imports, and so the people wont feel the awesome oil supper-ruble revenues, but insted they'll be able to buy 30% ess stuff for their rubles. oh well.

Encouraged by the wise advise of the father of the nation, the ruble continued its plunge, hitting 54 RUR for USD and 63 RUR for EUR today.

Putin's epic win was so epic that he went to Turkey and announced that Russia won't be building the South Stream pipeline across the Black Sea and into Bulgaria and onwards thru the Balkans to Italy--"because EU's not letting Bulgaria approve construction. So Bulgaria can take up it's $400 million loss with the EU, if it's decided not to be a fully sovereign state and not make their own decisions."

Putin's OTHER epic win on the gas front is that Lithuania has completed its LNG terminal, and now 1 tanker's worth of LNG is enough to fit the country's yearly consumption. Lithuanian Pres is already talkign about runnning a pipeline thru Poland to UA and then further down to South Europe.

Meanwhile, most of the top 20 Russian banks are putting up withdrawal restrictions on large amounts of foreign currency,, while Medvedev approved the transfer of nearly $2 billion out of the " National Future Generations' Well-Being Fund" (read: the-fund-we-stashed-all-the excess-oil-money-from-the-good-years) to Rosneft (Whose CEO makes more in a day than 95% of Russians make in a decade). And Rosneft's selling off a portion of its stock, but it's all kinda hush-hush.

In UA, it was a pretty quiet weekend. lots and lots of criticism over the Prosecutor-General--his inability to do much means he'll probably be sacked soon--or people will riot again. Also likely is the departure from her post of the head of National Bank-the 3rd incredibly questionable appoiintment made by the Pres (basically, only "his" MFA is yet to screw up in an epic fashion). The new MOD continues to clean house, requiring re-attestation of most of his underlings, while logistics are made workable due to to volunteers.

Tomorrow the Parliament will be Selecting the cabinet. Current buzz is first they'll pass a law allowing foreign nationals to hold govt posts--bringing in foreign reformers--in particulars I think we're bringing in some of the people responsible for reforms in Georgia. I'm skeptical, since the splitting up both ministries and also parliamentary committees is never easy, but we will see.

In Donbass, the war continues. The weekend saw a large amount of activity in the cities of LNR away from the front--some major confrontations between so-called "Cossacks" who've taken control over large swathes of LNR territory and Russian GRU, which was "supposedly" enforcing the rule of the LNR central authority. The crazy theory of the week is that the Cossacks were backed by the FSB wing of Putin's entourage, whilst the "REpublican" govt is the creation of the Military wing, and curated by the GRU, and the 2 are now competing over control of the occulied territory and its resources.

Anyhow, today there was another serios fierce battle for the Donetsk Airport. Supposedly this time it was the Omsk Spetznaz (who are supposed to be the best of the best) who got themselves throughly decimated. To date, there've been reports of Pskov Paratroopers, Kostroma paratroopers (the guys who got "lost"), North Fleet Murmansk Marines, a few units from Buryatiya (One of the biggest chunks of Eastern Siberia), god-knows-how-many various Caucasus brigades, and now the Oms Spetznaz. Correlating with the previous news about "cleaning up the Cossacks" is the end result--after an urgent consultation of the "Iniative group for ceasefire led by a Uki and a Russian (!!!) general, there's... yet another proposed ceasefire agreement to take place as of Dec 5th. LE SIGH. Rumours abound that certain Russian military units are on the verge of mutiny due to heavy losses in an undeclared war (Though the Russian MOD did generously declare lavish compensations for the families of those who "died during training exercises under undisclosed circumstances"), but these come from Russian dissident groups who are fanatically anti-Putin so their words whould be taken with a grain of salt, imho--Basically, I'll believe it when I see it.

Crimeans continue to enjoy the guessing game "what will be shut off next", as there are electricity (since UA relies on geothermal for a chunk of its production, and Donbass coal that used to power it is kind of unavailable), gas (Because UA's skimping on gas everywhere to get through th ewinter by buying as little Russian gas as feasible) and running water (because reserves are running out, some bright Crimean authorities damaged the canal, and Crimeans owe smth like 0.7 million to UA already for the water.

And winter's just getting started...

(That is not to say that all's awesome in UA. The national debt has hit some 73 Billion USD, banks are closing cuz they can't deal with the spike in currency, and, y'know, people are dying everyday in the war. But that's a very, VERY thin glimmer of hope still. Which is what keeps people going).

Oh, and for those who may have liked to know more: there's now a Ukraine Today site. uatoday.tv Frankly, I haven't watched it and from what I understood it's not a govt channel, but an initiative of the oligarch Kolomoyskyj (who is staunchly anti-Putin, but inevitably has his own agendas in UA politics). Still, some ppl may find it useful.

[amphibian]

The possible importation of Georgian reformers as official government appointed leaders is an unusual step. I don't think I've ever seen that in a country without a tiny economy.

Most places, the reformers get the advisory positions.

It's also curious because there's the question of whether Georgian reforms are appropriate for this one. Usually, they don't transfer over without modification and sensitivity to local politics.

Thanks for the updates, Mentalist.

[Mentalist]

amphibian, on 02 December 2014 - 01:28 AM, said:

The possible importation of Georgian reformers as official government appointed leaders is an unusual step. I don't think I've ever seen that in a country without a tiny economy.

Most places, the reformers get the advisory positions.

It's also curious because there's the question of whether Georgian reforms are appropriate for this one. Usually, they don't transfer over without modification and sensitivity to local politics.

Thanks for the updates, Mentalist.

The single, most successful Geaorgian reform post-Revolution of Roses is police reform. Which meant "90+ % of the staff and starting from scratch to eliminate police corruption". I believe that's the goal here.

UA governemnt needs a drastic cut. I mean beyond drastic, prolly over 65% of govt employees have to go. As far as shock therapy goes, well, it'll be absolutely terrifying. But at this point there's no other way forward, not really.

[Mentalist]

lots of stuff happened. Still haven't quite sorted it all out yet, and I'm incredibly tired today. Will do a proper update tomorrow

[Nicodimas]

H. Res. 758

Quote

“strongly condemning the actions of the Russian Federation, under President Vladimir Putin, which has carried out a policy of aggression against neighboring countries aimed at political and economic domination.”

-AMERICA

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 05 December 2014 - 11:07 PM, said:

H. Res. 758

Quote

“strongly condemning the actions of the Russian Federation, under President Vladimir Putin, which has carried out a policy of aggression against neighboring countries aimed at political and economic domination.”

-AMERICA

Yeah I got an e-mail from the White House tonight in response to me signign a petition to have Russia declared as a state sponsoring terrorism. US is pushing, and they'll be pushing even harder now that the Reps got both chambers.
(I am generally quite left-wing in my politics, but I gotta root for the Reps in the States for their anti-Russian stance. God damn you, Putin.)

So, as I've mentioned before lots of stuff happened.

1) UA voted in a cabinet. Hot topics:

i) the "varangian" ministers--3 ministerial spots went to foreigners--Health to an ex-Georgian Minister of Health who had the same spot in Saakashvili's govt, Finance to a Ukrainian American, and Econ. Development & Trade to a Lithuanian eceonoist who's worked in Sweden's investment banks, but is married to a Ukrainian and was a long-term Kyyv resident. There's another Geaorgian being appointed as first deputy minister for the Minister of Interior (aka, police). This one's not gonno go over smoothly, since the post is super-important, as all the volunteer battalions + the National Guard are subordinated to the Ministry of Interior, and not MoD (only "Aydar" is MoD). I'm not expecting miracles, but some others are, so we'll see how ppl will deal lack of super-results everyone's expecting.

ii) the Ministry of Truth Ministry of Information Management --a yet-to-be-created Mistry, which is going to be headed by a newly-appointed Minister. Who happens to be long-standing editor-in chief on Channel 5 (which is owned by the Pres). And the Pres happens to be the.... *pause while I wiki this* ..... "compadre" (yes, this is an English word!)--a "co-parent", so either he's the godparent of the Pres' child, or vice versa. The Ministry's purported job is "manage information policy", "counter Russian propaganda worldwide", and, most alarmingly, "to establish standards of journalism". That last bit made preeeety much every journalist and civil activist take an incredibly hostile position towards the Cabinet, how it was voted in (as a "package" and w/o individual approval) etc.


2) On Thursday the Parliament also picked the heads of parliamentary committees, and there was some drama there, as first of all the "opposition" was denied key positions in any committees (to be fair, giving head of Freedom of the Press committee to the people who voted for the January 16 laws which institutionalized censorship seems a bit much, and the street wouldn't stand for it, and neither would any journalist, parliamentary democracy be damned), and there wasa first indication of conflict within the Parliament and the coalition specifically between the "Maydan" MPs and the "Old guard" career politicians even in the Pro-Western parties.

3) While that was happening, Putin was supposed to give his speech to the Fed Assembly yesterday. on the night from Wed to Thur, however, something went wrong. kind of.
I'm hesitant to call this a full-out war, but there was a rebel strike in Chechnya. Now, reports are obviously sketchy, since Russian media's not the most reliable source + the other source are kavkaz-based anti-Russian media, which tend to be islamist, but they are the ones whose info is parroted both by Russian opposition media AND by Uki media. So basically what happened was, a group of Chechens launched a suicide commando raid in Grozny, apparently because "we can't stand how the unbelievers treat our women any longer". They were stopped at a checkpoint ("peaceful" Chechnya still has those, opened fire, killed the patrol and made their way to the centre of Grozny, where they to over the Press House. This large building which dominated teh Grozny skyline was then assaulted with everyhting Kadyrov had handy, (including tanks) and very seriously damaged--apparently, to stomp out a group of 10 "terrorists". After a few of them were killed, the remainder took refuge in a nearby school, which was also promptly levelled.

If we are to listed to the attackers' side of the story, there were about 300 of them spread out throughout Grozny. there's 6 confirmed kills, and they (and sympathizers in social media) report that there was some ridiculously heavy fighting, Kadyrov's men lost about 70 dead, many more wounded and a lot of armour.
Now, there's a lot of wishful thinking along the lines of "Chechens are rising up, which will hail the collapse of the Empire", but, although there's SOME merit to this (Russia's been sending a lot of its Kavkaz-based troops into Donbass and they've been getting quite a beating. Also, kadyrov's been sending his own mercs to help out the "People's republics" even before Russia stepped in en mass in late August, so his power base is shakier than it has been in ages), for now it remains just wishful thinking. Kadyrov admitted that one of his young relatives was assassinated today (which generally means a blood debt and inevitable retaliation), but it's too early to say anything for certain. Oh, and tonight, in Mahachkala (the capital of neighbouring Dagestan), there was a huge fire in local FSB HQ, which jumped over to the Ministry of interior HQ. There's been no official comment as to how the HQ of the almighty FSB could be on fire, and enthusiasts are already jumping on the bandwagon of "Dagestan is also rising!" but once again, skepticism is the best approach here. While few things would make a Uki happier right now than another war in the Kavkaz (well, unless VVH has a heart attack and dies), I'm not willing to entertain the notion that Russia is THAT close to chaos and anarchy. Although this is undoubtedly a good sign.

4) So then VVH gave his speech. It was long. It was banal. It was downright boring and ridiculous in some parts. The main talking points were: Crimea is "sacral" to the Russian identity, so we're never, ever giving it back; we're not the ones isolating ourselves, the West is out to "suppress" Russia, as always; If need me, we will survive on our own. The economic part had a few VERY interesting points. Although the awaited "liberalization" didn't really happen. (I mean, ok, they won't introduce new taxes for 3 years... but they've just added a bunch in November), the main thrust was "we need to streamline the govt. We are going to do it by REALLY taking out the bribe-collecting middleman out of the equation to make life easier for business". Given that the bribe-collecting middlemen government officials are the basis of Russia's regime, this has led some commentators to suggest that Putin is launching a "revolution from the top". Essentially, withthe falling oil prices, sanctions, and getting involved in a new Cold War, Russian economy is sinking. Capital is fleeing, and Russia can't afford the corruption anymore. The problem is, in the 15 "Oil years of plenty, an ientire system of governemnent officials, clerks and various regulatory agencies came into being that exists by mooching off the oil surplus money. Russia's entire neo-feudalist society revolves around oil money. With the tap running out, the system has to go. Whentehr it's possible to destroy it, or if it will destroy the man who dares try to dismantle it remains to be seen.

The war continues. There was supposed to be a ceasefire as of today, but instead Russians nearly succeeded in capturing the Donetsk airport. They've forced the uki "cyborgs" out of the old terminal, and it took a while for them to regroup and mow down the fresh assault. The Pes announed teh next "Day of Silence" to be the 9th. Uki scepticism as to how the 4th ceasefire w

[Mentalist]

been very busy.

I am now proud to recommend wwww.ukropnews.net as an English-language reference for what's happening in UA.

The site is a very much a work in progress, and far less impressive than its Uki-language original ukropnews.com, due to lack of full-time translators. but it will be updated semi regularly with blog posts and analysis. I've been trying to get people involved in a volunteer project to open UAnet to western public by doing volunteer translations (as I've started to do in my spare time). Given my lack of any major social connections, the progress is currently not far beyond a snail's pace, but i'm still working on it. albeit very slowly.

A proper update will be done prolly on Fri or Sat, as usual.

[Terez]

Mentalist, on 06 December 2014 - 07:06 AM, said:

I got an e-mail from the White House tonight in response to me signign a petition to have Russia declared as a state sponsoring terrorism. US is pushing, and they'll be pushing even harder now that the Reps got both chambers.
(I am generally quite left-wing in my politics, but I gotta root for the Reps in the States for their anti-Russian stance. God damn you, Putin.)

That's a bit of an oversimplification. There are a lot of Republicans who seem to honestly admire Putin and often compare him favorably to Obama. I think both parties are reasonably anti-Russia, particularly when it comes to land grabs, but the Republicans are more likely to want to initiate military action. That would probably be a terrible idea, but it's not going to happen without a Republican president. Meanwhile we do sanctions, and I don't think there is much in the way of disagreement on sanctions; Obama is being just as aggressive with sanctions as any Republican would be, perhaps more, since Republicans are reluctant to disturb the fuel market.

The Republicans don't have Congress quite yet; we still have about a month of lame-duck session left to go before the new Congress is sworn in.

[Nicodimas]

The crash on Oil is amazing to watch. Let's see if it dips into the 40..or 20 territory. It seems to be Crushing Russia from what I see. Which is probably the goal.

It's 59ish today? Canada is at 42!!

I am leary anytime something swings this fast.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 11 December 2014 - 09:09 PM

[Aptorian]

Isn't this the plot for the latest Jack Ryan: Shadow something movie?

Actually that was trillions US dollars being dumped, not oil.

Anyway the point is The Christmas Ghost of Tom Clancy would know what to do.

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 09:09 PM, said:

The crash on Oil is amazing to watch. Let's see if it dips into the 40..or 20 territory. It seems to be Crushing Russia from what I see. Which is probably the goal.

It's 59ish today? Canada is at 42!!

I am leary anytime something swings this fast.

I believe it's as much about keeping US and Canadian shale and tar sands oil off the market, as it is about Russia. Shale revolution caused the traditional exporters' (OPEC)'s market share to sink, as there was suddenly an abundance of extra oil. Also, China slowing down its growth caused a relatively sudden decline in demand, while the supply was already increased.
The sanctions helped, in the sense that they made Russian oil more expensive--the relatively cheap Western Siberian and Volga "urals" brand is running out. Russia has to invest into the developing Eastern Siberia and also the Arctic shelf--expensive projects. And the sanctions both undermine the borrowing power (scaring away investors) AND restrict the flow of Western mining equipment necessary to develop further.
In these conditions, if Opec kept the price the same, US would still win, because even with the oil being steady, it would force Russia out of the market in the long run.
But OPEC has beef with Russia over Syria, plus lowering the prices of oil also hits the US shale mining--it makes it less profitable at the least.
Meanwhile, Russia which oves 52 percent of its badget to oil money is feeling the pinch, as the fall in oil escalates the capital flight, and so pulls the ruble even lower. In the past month the RTS (Russian stock exchange) lost about 15 percent. I'm no financial advisor, but I'm pretty sure that's in the "bad, verging on catastrophe" area.
ETA: back home, people are betting on the "meeting point" between the USD/RUR exchange rate and the Brent brand oil price. My estimate is around 58-59.5 the meeting b/W Brent and euro was yesterday at 66.63 (lol). Now the euro's up to 70 rubles already.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 11 December 2014 - 09:30 PM

[Nicodimas]

Mentalist, on 11 December 2014 - 09:25 PM, said:

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 09:09 PM, said:

The crash on Oil is amazing to watch. Let's see if it dips into the 40..or 20 territory. It seems to be Crushing Russia from what I see. Which is probably the goal.

It's 59ish today? Canada is at 42!!

I am leary anytime something swings this fast.

I believe it's as much about keeping US and Canadian shale and tar sands oil off the market, as it is about Russia. Shale revolution caused the traditional exporters' (OPEC)'s market share to sink, as there was suddenly an abundance of extra oil. Also, China slowing down its growth caused a relatively sudden decline in demand, while the supply was already increased.
The sanctions helped, in the sense that they made Russian oil more expensive--the relatively cheap Western Siberian and Volga "urals" brand is running out. Russia has to invest into the developing Eastern Siberia and also the Arctic shelf--expensive projects. And the sanctions both undermine the borrowing power (scaring away investors) AND restrict the flow of Western mining equipment necessary to develop further.
In these conditions, if Opec kept the price the same, US would still win, because even with the oil being steady, it would force Russia out of the market in the long run.
But OPEC has beef with Russia over Syria, plus lowering the prices of oil also hits the US shale mining--it makes it less profitable at the least.
Meanwhile, Russia which oves 52 percent of its badget to oil money is feeling the pinch, as the fall in oil escalates the capital flight, and so pulls the ruble even lower. In the past month the RTS (Russian stock exchange) lost about 15 percent. I'm no financial advisor, but I'm pretty sure that's in the "bad, verging on catastrophe" area.
ETA: back home, people are betting on the "meeting point" between the USD/RUR exchange rate and the Brent brand oil price. My estimate is around 58-59.5 the meeting b/W Brent and euro was yesterday at 66.63 (lol). Now the euro's up to 70 rubles already.

Your completely right..on the shale situation. Critical support is around 57 and thats about 150 billion in bonds that are going to start to get hosed. /popcorn

[Nicodimas]

This is interesting:

http://www.eia.gov/d...=A103600001&f=M

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 09:40 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 11 December 2014 - 09:25 PM, said:

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 09:09 PM, said:

The crash on Oil is amazing to watch. Let's see if it dips into the 40..or 20 territory. It seems to be Crushing Russia from what I see. Which is probably the goal.

It's 59ish today? Canada is at 42!!

I am leary anytime something swings this fast.

I believe it's as much about keeping US and Canadian shale and tar sands oil off the market, as it is about Russia. Shale revolution caused the traditional exporters' (OPEC)'s market share to sink, as there was suddenly an abundance of extra oil. Also, China slowing down its growth caused a relatively sudden decline in demand, while the supply was already increased.
The sanctions helped, in the sense that they made Russian oil more expensive--the relatively cheap Western Siberian and Volga "urals" brand is running out. Russia has to invest into the developing Eastern Siberia and also the Arctic shelf--expensive projects. And the sanctions both undermine the borrowing power (scaring away investors) AND restrict the flow of Western mining equipment necessary to develop further.
In these conditions, if Opec kept the price the same, US would still win, because even with the oil being steady, it would force Russia out of the market in the long run.
But OPEC has beef with Russia over Syria, plus lowering the prices of oil also hits the US shale mining--it makes it less profitable at the least.
Meanwhile, Russia which oves 52 percent of its badget to oil money is feeling the pinch, as the fall in oil escalates the capital flight, and so pulls the ruble even lower. In the past month the RTS (Russian stock exchange) lost about 15 percent. I'm no financial advisor, but I'm pretty sure that's in the "bad, verging on catastrophe" area.
ETA: back home, people are betting on the "meeting point" between the USD/RUR exchange rate and the Brent brand oil price. My estimate is around 58-59.5 the meeting b/W Brent and euro was yesterday at 66.63 (lol). Now the euro's up to 70 rubles already.

Your completely right..on the shale situation. Critical support is around 57 and thats about 150 billion in bonds that are going to start to get hosed. /popcorn

Daymn. WTI's already below 60... christ, maybe we will get WW3 after all...

[Nicodimas]

Mentalist-->

Am I right in assuming that this prolonged long enough will create another 1998 Financial Crisis, except now we have Putin in charge?

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 09:51 PM, said:

Mentalist-->

Am I right in assuming that this prolonged long enough will create another 1998 Financial Crisis, except now we have Putin in charge?

Tbh I don't remember much about the Russian default, as I was only 11 at the time. UA went through its round of hyper-inflation in the early nineties before we've introduced a national currency, so at that point we were actually recovering.

However, it won't be quite as bad, I don't think. If Putin can maintain control in the regions and keep caucasus pacified, he can always pick the next oligarch and make him pay for the country for this quarter (at least until he runs out of oligarchs in his inner circle).
It's important to understand: most russians genuinely adore Putin. And any moves against large capital-holders "for the good of the people" will be met by roars of approval. So I don't see a breakdown in the cards, not any time soon.

[Nicodimas]

Mentalist, on 11 December 2014 - 10:23 PM, said:

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 09:51 PM, said:

Mentalist-->

Am I right in assuming that this prolonged long enough will create another 1998 Financial Crisis, except now we have Putin in charge?

Tbh I don't remember much about the Russian default, as I was only 11 at the time. UA went through its round of hyper-inflation in the early nineties before we've introduced a national currency, so at that point we were actually recovering.

However, it won't be quite as bad, I don't think. If Putin can maintain control in the regions and keep caucasus pacified, he can always pick the next oligarch and make him pay for the country for this quarter (at least until he runs out of oligarchs in his inner circle).
It's important to understand: most russians genuinely adore Putin. And any moves against large capital-holders "for the good of the people" will be met by roars of approval. So I don't see a breakdown in the cards, not any time soon.

Yea that is my thoughts. I think the only way it really hit's Russian interest's is if its kept low for a year+.

Though this will cause a Kaboom if it continues..just not sure where it lands and who is holding the risk.

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 10:49 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 11 December 2014 - 10:23 PM, said:

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 09:51 PM, said:

Mentalist-->

Am I right in assuming that this prolonged long enough will create another 1998 Financial Crisis, except now we have Putin in charge?

Tbh I don't remember much about the Russian default, as I was only 11 at the time. UA went through its round of hyper-inflation in the early nineties before we've introduced a national currency, so at that point we were actually recovering.

However, it won't be quite as bad, I don't think. If Putin can maintain control in the regions and keep caucasus pacified, he can always pick the next oligarch and make him pay for the country for this quarter (at least until he runs out of oligarchs in his inner circle).
It's important to understand: most russians genuinely adore Putin. And any moves against large capital-holders "for the good of the people" will be met by roars of approval. So I don't see a breakdown in the cards, not any time soon.

Yea that is my thoughts. I think the only way it really hit's Russian interest's is if its kept low for a year+.

Though this will cause a Kaboom if it continues..just not sure where it lands and who is holding the risk.

Putin's address to the FedCouncil last Thur (if one takes it @ face value) would suggest that he realizes his "pump oil, collect the super-profits with his inner circle, and keep the people happy with minute surplus, which trickles down and then is largely skimmed by the bloated corruption machine" system is broke, as it's mortally vulnerable to outside factors succh as the world dropping the oil price. Therefore, he is essentially forced to reform the system. In this, his address targets the corruption-fueled bureaucracy as the ones to go. The offers of amnesty capitals, tax freezes and other measures (some symbolic, some seemingly driven by desire to add transparency). While it's difficult to guess which way it will go, no matter who wins, Russia is going to change. If Putin succeds, he will incite his own state machine to turn on him in self-preservation. If the machine successfully stalls any attempts to reform, then eventually the falling social standards will boil over into another "senseless and merciless Russian riot".
...
And THEN you factor in the Chinese and the Muslim factors...

[Terez]

Nicodimas, on 11 December 2014 - 10:49 PM, said:

Though this will cause a Kaboom if it continues..just not sure where it lands and who is holding the risk.

I imagine those huge foreign hedge funds are holding most of the risk, since our big ones have been divesting for a while. But this is not something I have been following in detail. I'm sure there's at least some risk in our banking system.