[Macros]

Don't worry, the billionaires all agreed to pony up

[Chance]

Cause, on 23 June 2025 - 03:47 AM, said:

Did NATO really just agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP within the next ten years? That’s a turn around from just a few years ago and obviously a response to Ukraine. That’s more than double current spending.

A loss for Putin it would seem but also massive implications for all the countries involved. Where will the cuts to pay for it come from.

Not exactly I think they agreed to 3,5% and a further 1,5% which is to increase readiness such as robustness of infrastructure, communications but in reality is just infrastructure investment that is also useful in war. Except for spain which got to skip the 1,5% for being basically immune to war due to an invader most likely having to conquer all of europe before getting to spain and for their government being ready to torpedo the negotiations.

Its probably way over the top overreaction, a solid 2-2,5% would have been more than enough if spent reasonably. Thank Trump for that tax hike Europe.

This post has been edited by Chance: 23 June 2025 - 08:17 AM

[Werthead]

Chance, on 23 June 2025 - 08:11 AM, said:

Not exactly I think they agreed to 3,5% and a further 1,5% which is to increase readiness such as robustness of infrastructure, communications but in reality is just infrastructure investment that is also useful in war. Except for spain which got to skip the 1,5% for being basically immune to war due to an invader most likely having to conquer all of europe before getting to spain and for their government being ready to torpedo the negotiations.

Its probably way over the top overreaction, a solid 2-2,5% would have been more than enough if spent reasonably. Thank Trump for that tax hike Europe.

If all NATO members increased to 5%, they would be able to buy, immediately, ten Gerald R. Ford-class supercarriers and have absolutely tons of money left over. That would be bigger than the defence budgets of the US and China combined. It's completely over the top.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 23 June 2025 - 05:11 PM, said:

Chance, on 23 June 2025 - 08:11 AM, said:

Not exactly I think they agreed to 3,5% and a further 1,5% which is to increase readiness such as robustness of infrastructure, communications but in reality is just infrastructure investment that is also useful in war. Except for spain which got to skip the 1,5% for being basically immune to war due to an invader most likely having to conquer all of europe before getting to spain and for their government being ready to torpedo the negotiations.

Its probably way over the top overreaction, a solid 2-2,5% would have been more than enough if spent reasonably. Thank Trump for that tax hike Europe.

If all NATO members increased to 5%, they would be able to buy, immediately, ten Gerald R. Ford-class supercarriers and have absolutely tons of money left over. That would be bigger than the defence budgets of the US and China combined. It's completely over the top.

Honestly my guess is that most states won't get to 3.5% within 3-4 years and then they will adjust the goal once Trump is out of office. Of course 3.5% is still ludicrous but about what the US has averaged over the last few years.

This post has been edited by Chance: 23 June 2025 - 06:28 PM

[Werthead]

Chance, on 23 June 2025 - 06:21 PM, said:

Honestly my guess is that most states won't get to 3.5% within 3-4 years and then they will adjust the goal once Trump is out of office. Of course 3.5% is still ludicrous but about what the US has averaged over the last few years.

Poland and the Baltic States are already well above that, but obviously they're right on the front line. I'm surprised Romania isn't spending more considering their position also becomes dubious if Ukraine was to buckle, and the threat of Russian forces uncomfortably close by in Transnistria (though not a lot of them).

It's going to be difficult for Germany and the UK to get up there, but Germany is also not a million miles away from the front lines. Britain's problem is going to be recruitment.

[Garak]

We're in an economic crisis. Our new government will probably enact austerity measures again, prices are going up again etc.

Also it's really hard to get people to accept and understand that bullies need facing, not appeasing.

[Chance]

Garak, on 24 June 2025 - 04:01 AM, said:

We're in an economic crisis. Our new government will probably enact austerity measures again, prices are going up again etc.

Also it's really hard to get people to accept and understand that bullies need facing, not appeasing.

If one is fair romania is also the second weakest economy in the EU zone. The ones that really need to step up are probably Germany and the UK (not EU but key to Nato at least air/naval defence in europe). To a lesser degree the smaller nations and of course Italy and Spain which are less wealthy and less threatened. Now I'm usually somewhat cautions towards EU power (at least keeping it out of the small detail decisions) but occasionally I wonder if a joint foreign policy, air force, navy and ground forces doesn't have something to recommend itself. It would certainly cut a lot of the inefficiencies out of the process. Of course that would be a big step towards the United States of Europe...which I have complicated thoughts about.

This post has been edited by Chance: 24 June 2025 - 10:18 AM

[Garak]

I want a United States of Europe to happen. Especially if cuts into our corrupt politicians by decreasing their number. The nationalist and sovereign obsessed movements would be against it but somehow they always bring up Russian talking points, and they keep having Legionari in the crowd (our Nazis) so I really don't care what those people whine about.

[Tiste Simeon]

 Garak, on 24 June 2025 - 12:38 PM, said:

I want a United States of Europe to happen. Especially if cuts into our corrupt politicians by decreasing their number. The nationalist and sovereign obsessed movements would be against it but somehow they always bring up Russian talking points, and they keep having Legionari in the crowd (our Nazis) so I really don't care what those people whine about.

I can't see it happening in my lifetime but I know how much it would annoy certain types and that alone would make it worthwhile haha

[Chance]

Garak, on 24 June 2025 - 12:38 PM, said:

I want a United States of Europe to happen. Especially if cuts into our corrupt politicians by decreasing their number. The nationalist and sovereign obsessed movements would be against it but somehow they always bring up Russian talking points, and they keep having Legionari in the crowd (our Nazis) so I really don't care what those people whine about.

I'm approaching it from the other end, Brussel is more corrupt than Stockholm. But yeah it would probably be a step up for a lot of Europe if the system was just slightly better then the one the US uses. For the nordic countries...well probably not but it might be worth it for big scale efficiency in markets and defense. Especially if it starts like a foreign diplomacy and defense pact in the first step and gradually continues to the rest.

Tiste Simeon, on 24 June 2025 - 01:24 PM, said:

I can't see it happening in my lifetime but I know how much it would annoy certain types and that alone would make it worthwhile haha

Neither do I but a few years ago (well more like a decade or so ago) I said the same about a land war in Europe but it seems a lot can happen over a few decades. Could also see Ukraine entering the EU and potentially NATO after the war being a big shake up if it happens.

At the same time it is gradually happening through lawmaking from Brussel that these days severely limit some stuff in member states, maybe it will never be official just de-facto eventually that big decisions are made in the EU while the local stuff becomes national.

This post has been edited by Chance: 24 June 2025 - 02:14 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Chance, on 24 June 2025 - 01:56 PM, said:

Garak, on 24 June 2025 - 12:38 PM, said:

I want a United States of Europe to happen. Especially if cuts into our corrupt politicians by decreasing their number. The nationalist and sovereign obsessed movements would be against it but somehow they always bring up Russian talking points, and they keep having Legionari in the crowd (our Nazis) so I really don't care what those people whine about.

I'm approaching it from the other end, Brussel is more corrupt than Stockholm. But yeah it would probably be a step up for a lot of Europe if the system was just slightly better then the one the US uses. For the nordic countries...well probably not but it might be worth it for big scale efficient in markets and defense. Especially if it starts like a foreign diplomacy and defense pact in the first step and gradually continues to the rest.

Tiste Simeon, on 24 June 2025 - 01:24 PM, said:

I can't see it happening in my lifetime but I know how much it would annoy certain types and that alone would make it worthwhile haha

Neither do I but a few years ago (well more like a decade or so ago) I said the same about a land war in Europe but it seems a lot can happen over a few decades.

At the same time it is gradually happening through lawmaking from Brussel that these days severely limit some stuff in member states, maybe it will never be official just de-facto eventually that big decisions are made in the EU while the local stuff becomes national.

The United States of Europe, circa 2125---"one nation, under Immortal Cyber-Putin..."

[Tapper]

The biggest blockade for a stronger Union is the old part of the EC, imho.

There are so many pensioners and baby boomers close to pension age there who are afraid to lose their rights if a better fiscal policy is installed, that they will block any attempt at an EU wide reform. This in turn feeds discontent for my own generation and the ones below, who will pony up for these people for the next three to four decades while facing no such cushion themselves, while facing pressure from AI and corporate inflexibility on the job market. It’s no wonder right wing politicians flourish in such an environment, where deflecting blame to immigrants can channel this dissatisfaction to a third group both the old and young can get behind. The centre right echoing far right talking points to keep voters on board for the last two decades is not making it any better.

This post has been edited by Tapper: 25 June 2025 - 02:14 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine is continuing to counterattack hard on the Sumy front. Several Russian reinforcement groupings across the border in Kursk were hit as well. Unclear if Russia will both continuing to maintain the Sumy bridgehead, it does not appear sustainable without reinforcements, which do not appear to be forthcoming.

Still heavy fighting on the Kharkiv front. A big Russian push seems to have been halted.

Ukraine is testing a new glide bomb with a potential range of 100km.

The lack of Russian air defence seems to be becoming acute in some areas of the front, with Ukrainian jets now filmed by Russian troops firing missiles at Russian forward positions. Lots of anger and asking where their air force or air defence is. If Ukraine gains air superiority over the front (and it's possible that Israel is giving Ukraine pointers here) then no amount of clever fibre-optic drones are going to stop them from getting pummelled at will by F-16s and MiG-29s.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 25 June 2025 - 08:22 PM, said:

Ukraine is continuing to counterattack hard on the Sumy front. Several Russian reinforcement groupings across the border in Kursk were hit as well. Unclear if Russia will both continuing to maintain the Sumy bridgehead, it does not appear sustainable without reinforcements, which do not appear to be forthcoming.

There was some indication recently that Russia isn't actually keeping up with replacements at the same pace as losses. That the actually deployed army size might have reached its peak at some point last year or early this one.

This post has been edited by Chance: Yesterday, 06:42 AM

[Mentalist]

Chance, on 26 June 2025 - 06:40 AM, said:

Werthead, on 25 June 2025 - 08:22 PM, said:

Ukraine is continuing to counterattack hard on the Sumy front. Several Russian reinforcement groupings across the border in Kursk were hit as well. Unclear if Russia will both continuing to maintain the Sumy bridgehead, it does not appear sustainable without reinforcements, which do not appear to be forthcoming.

There was some indication recently that Russia isn't actually keeping up with replacements at the same pace as losses. That the actually deployed army size might have reached its peak at some point last year or early this one.

data is conflicting. too early to say if they've lost momentum or not, as they are still pushing and grinding through in the East.

[Werthead]

Russia is still gaining ground but they seem to be doing it with much more difficulty than previously, by focusing on single areas and going all-in and launching diversionary attacks elsewhere. In some cases, the diversionary attacks run short on manpower and they've had to be careful not to lose ground to Ukrainians on the counter.

Some reports that Ukrainian Bayraktars have been spotted in action for the first time since the first year of the war. Bayraktars are sitting ducks for modern anti-drone weapons, even assuming these are upgunned later models. This may emphasise Russia's creaky air coverage. The Bayraktars were spotted engaging Russian boats trying to cross the Dnipro (how many Russians have died in the waters of that river in the last year is something we may never know, except it must be in the thousands). American Switchblades have also been seen in action, again having not been seen in many months due to their deficiencies to Russian anti-air systems.

A Ukrainian drone attack destroyed an S-400 AA system in Crimea, to emphasise that point even more.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 07:33 PM

[Garak]

I read an article that claimed Russia has built two new tank factories and their current output is can replace their losses but they aren't being sent to the front, instead they are creating a new reserve for a conflict with NATO.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has fielded a new drone with a resting loiter-height of, er, 11,000 metres. The drone can spot enemy troop concentrations and vehicle movements and then - sometimes autonomously - just death from above straight into the enemy. Russian soldiers can't usually see these things before they hit.

Russia has taken a lead with fibre-optic drones with ranges of over 40km though, which is causing some renewed headaches for the Ukrainians.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 11:29 PM

[Chance]

Garak, on 26 June 2025 - 07:42 PM, said:

I read an article that claimed Russia has built two new tank factories and their current output is can replace their losses but they aren't being sent to the front, instead they are creating a new reserve for a conflict with NATO.

I wonder what they are smoking in the Kremlin if they believe in that eventual conflict with NATO. It might have been semi viable if they weren't entangled in Ukraine and the US kept out 3-10 years ago but today...or even worse in a few years that chance has come and gone.

This post has been edited by Chance: Today, 05:16 AM

[Garak]

Well they are engaged in hybrid warfare with the EU already. Every nationalist, sovereignist, xenophobic movement in every country probably has some Russian backing. And these movements are growing year by year as things get tougher. Get enough of those people in important government positions and Article 5 will look less reliable. The old Dive and Conquer.

I know people who still quake in their boots and claim the Russian army can't be beaten. People who claim that Zelensky is at fault here and he should just give Putin that bit of Ukraine, because they refuse to believe that Russia wouldn't keep demanding more. People who bitch about the Ukrainian refugees we have, that we are spending resources on them. I tried to counter all their complaints with reason and there's just no getting through.