[Mentalist]

It must be noted that a total of 8 (out of 38) cruise missiles impacted all over the coutry. A lot of deaths in Kyiv came from the apartment building that got demolished as well, and the ruins are still being worked over by rescue teams that are finding bodies. So I'm not sure about the exact figures from hospital hit deaths, as I'm seeing conflicting headlines, but at the same time new casualties are emerging as the rubble is cleared.

OkhMatDyt (abbreviation for "Protecting Mothers (and) Children" was UA's top tier hospital for children's health and perinatal medicine. Hitting it is both symbolic (trying to destroy the nation's future), and inherently practical (it's the most expensive hospital to restore due to most up to date state of the art equipment, and the doctors working there being some of the brightest and thus most essential in the country) in the absolutely reprehensive and immoral war calculus way.

I'm surprised and relieved they didn't try to double-tap it with the rescue work ongoing.

[worry]

That's horrifying and heartbreaking.

[Werthead]

The interception rate was high during the bombardment of Kyiv. 1 KH-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic (Ukraine no longer calls them hypersonics because they're not), 3 Iskander-Ms, 11 Kh-101s, 12 Kalibrs and 3 Kh-59/69s were shot down.

The damage and high rate of casualties came from the remaining Iskander-M, two Kh-101s, 2 Kalibrs and 2 Kh-22s (each with a thousand kilogram warhead) which managed to penetrate the AA defences. One Zircon hypersonic also got through, but it didn't appear to hit the city. One possibility is that the Ukrainian AA systems were still regrouping after hitting an overnight strike 100%, in which case they need to recalibrate their approach. Russia hasn't done staggered volleys like this for months, but clearly were saving up a surprise for the start of the NATO conference in DC. The arrival of multiple new Patriots should help (one of the new ones has already arrived, I believe).

Ukraine published its interim damage report on Russian forces for yesterday though: 1,200* killed or wounded, 1 aircraft (possibly that Su-25 doing a suicide run on a trenchline), 16 tanks, 40 APC/IFVs, 29 artillery systems, 1 AA system, 31 UAVs, 47 support vehicles and refuelling trucks, and 8 "special equipment" of unknown specifications.

* As far as I can tell, Ukraine has been counting more than 1,200 killed or wounded in a single day before, but tends not to go over that because they think it's ludicrous, and instead triple or quadruple check before updating the figures past that retrospectively.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 09 July 2024 - 09:35 PM, said:

The interception rate was high during the bombardment of Kyiv. 1 KH-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic (Ukraine no longer calls them hypersonics because they're not), 3 Iskander-Ms, 11 Kh-101s, 12 Kalibrs and 3 Kh-59/69s were shot down.

The damage and high rate of casualties came from the remaining Iskander-M, two Kh-101s, 2 Kalibrs and 2 Kh-22s (each with a thousand kilogram warhead) which managed to penetrate the AA defences. One Zircon hypersonic also got through, but it didn't appear to hit the city. One possibility is that the Ukrainian AA systems were still regrouping after hitting an overnight strike 100%, in which case they need to recalibrate their approach. Russia hasn't done staggered volleys like this for months, but clearly were saving up a surprise for the start of the NATO conference in DC. The arrival of multiple new Patriots should help (one of the new ones has already arrived, I believe).

Ukraine published its interim damage report on Russian forces for yesterday though: 1,200* killed or wounded, 1 aircraft (possibly that Su-25 doing a suicide run on a trenchline), 16 tanks, 40 APC/IFVs, 29 artillery systems, 1 AA system, 31 UAVs, 47 support vehicles and refuelling trucks, and 8 "special equipment" of unknown specifications.

* As far as I can tell, Ukraine has been counting more than 1,200 killed or wounded in a single day before, but tends not to go over that because they think it's ludicrous, and instead triple or quadruple check before updating the figures past that retrospectively.

Tom Cooper is seriously doubting those intercept stats, b/c too many targets all over the place hit yesterday morning. Situation a bit unclear atm since Kyiv got hit hard yesterday including some "legit" MIC targets. Not that this excuses direct hits on hospitals or apartment buildings.

Overall, we are potentially looking at extra Patriot batteries being rushed in now, but what really needs to happen is missing strikes at airbases around the border perimeter. Not only would that reduce the number of glide bombs, but it would also keep MiG interceptors farther away, giving the upcoming F-16s more room to carry out interceptions of cruise missiles as well

[Werthead]

The US, Denmark and Netherlands have confirmed that F-16s are "on their way" to Ukraine. Some speculation that some aircraft might already be on the ground for a few days now but have not yet flown.

All range restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow have been removed. It is believed France should follow with SCALP imminently.

Medvedev has gone on another drunken rant, but after ranting about nuking everyone and the Moon, he abruptly changed tack and suggested that Ukraine might indeed be forced into accepting an unfavourable (to them) peace but at some future point Ukrainian patriots would return to power and Russia would then complete the elimination of Ukraine entirely.

Putin and Modi's talks seemed friendly, but Modi also criticised Putin, saying that war is not the answer to modern crises (a position he has taken consistently throughout the conflict). He then pressed Putin several times over the fate of several dozen Indian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, having apparently been scammed into joining the Russian military. Four such soldiers have been killed so far. Putin then cancelled the last round of talks with Modi abruptly.

Multiple Russian troops have gone AWOL, having refused to continue fighting once their contracts ended, despite the law being changed at the end of 2022 to require Russian soldiers to fight on until the end the operation. Many of them are complaining that the financial inducements, originally tempting, are now much less so due to inflation.

A Ukrainian formation consisting of mixed soldiers from the 225th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 223rd Marine Battalion was surrounded by Russian forces for 70 days. They established a strong perimeter and were resupplied by drone. Ukrainian forces successfully reached them after heavy combat and relieved them. They are now out of the rotation for a while. Them holding their position prevented a potentially significant Russian breakthrough at Chasiv Yar. Their operation may have single-handedly prevented the flank from falling.

[Werthead]

A Russian intelligence plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the CEO of German defence contractor Rheinmetall, has been foiled. Rheinmetall is one of Europe's biggest defence contractors and is producing a large amount of material for use by Ukraine, as well as regenerating Germany's own defence industry. Rheinmetall is also working with Ukraine to establish ammunition and vehicle production plants on Ukrainian soil.

Russian intelligence had apparently developed plans to assassinate other high-ranking personnel at multiple European and US defence companies, but this was the most advanced plot.

Significant damage has been confirmed after a hit on a Russian airbase at Melitopol. This is very close to the front (in Donbas), and another sign that Russia is trying to use shorter-ranged air attacks as Ukrainian AA improves, a somewhat bizarre tactic.

Another supply warehouse in Crimea that was filled with Shahed-136 drones has been destroyed.

A NATO analysis suggests that Russia's refusal to engage in further mobilisation in April-June may have cost Russia the opportunity to engage in a large-scale offensive late this year or early next. Russia's Kharkiv offensive has mostly been contained and failed, at an enormous cost in lives, but may have succeeded as a "spoiling" attack that diverted Ukrainian attention away from the main front in Donbas and allowed Russia to make small but notable advances. Ukraine may have a window of opportunity to launch its own counter-offensive later this year but needs to build up significant quantities of ammo first (some suggestions that the bulk of the Czech-sourced ammo has still not arrived, which feels woeful given some of it was sourced four months ago).

However, it is possible Russia could gain reinforcements from its international recruitment efforts, and it may try to maintain pressure through its current attacks to see if it can force a breakthrough. Russia probably can't maintain it's current losses of 1,000+ troops per day for a lot longer, otherwise they risk Ukraine being able to simply counter-attack without resistance once the entire attacking force has been annihilated, which it seems would be a very dumb thing for Russia to do.

Norway is joining the F-16 party, donating six F-16 jets to Ukraine.

The US is discussing allowing Ukraine to hit Russian airbases where aircraft are taking off to hit targets in Ukraine, in some cases these airbases are many hundreds of miles inside Russian territory. The US is carefully calibrating this response.

A Russian pilot of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division has reportedly leaked documents and intelligence to Ukrainian intelligence. He has allegedly confirmed the attack on Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital was deliberate, and caused great anger and dissent in many aerial units, who wanted to know why they are targeting civilian infrastructure when Ukraine has a lot of valid military targets. This has not been confirmed yet by Ukrainian government or military sources.

Japan has donated de-mining robots and equipment to Ukraine. Finding a way through Russian minefields remains a big problem for Ukrainian attacks along the front.

Russia has launched a small but significant offensive to take the small settlement of New York, between Horlivka and north of Donetsk City. At least one suggestion the only reason they're doing so is the meme value. Another is that the front in this area is one of the last remaining areas where the line of contact has stayed the same since 2014 (i.e. the Ukrainian troops in this area are holding defensive lines that have simply not moved one inch since February 2022).

[Werthead]

The Ukrainian "Shkval" volunteer battalion has carried out its first combat operations, as part of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. This battalion is controversial because it is made up of ex-prisoners released from prison to fight for their country. Ukraine was was aware of the optics given the Russian situation in doing the same thing, so they accepted volunteers only, preferably with existing military experience and who were not imprisoned for the most serious crimes.

The unit is also properly equipped and has a complement of Bradly IFVs attached to them. The unit's first operation was to carry out a counter-attack at Pokrovsk on the Donetsk front, retaking some territory recently lost in the Russian advance on New York (not that one).

I'd be wary of the PR way they've been reporting this, but interesting.

Russian sources claiming a Ukrainian hand in the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Hmm.

The Tsimlyansk oil refinery was destroyed by Ukrainian drones yesterday, with a guard using an anti-drone EW gun on the drone to notably no effect whatsoever, sparking outrage on Russian Telegram.

[Werthead]

Russia has deployed very old production-run T-54s to Ukraine. The bottom of the barrel, if not being scraped, is becoming proximate.

Almost an entire S-300 AA battery was destroyed in Manhush, Donetsk Oblast, near the Rostov border.

Residents in Belgorod are furious after several drivers were fined for speeding. Their excuse was that they saw incoming Ukrainian drones and were trying to get away. The authorities were unrepentant. Residents have claimed on a compensation programme for destroyed property (in some cases, caused by Russian shells or drones falling short of the border) and basically been told to fuck off.

A 138th Brigade soldier has reported on the battle for Vovchansk, saying his storm unit of 46 went into combat and encountered superior enemy fire and drones. 16 were killed and they were unable to recover their bodies. The remaining 30 managed to withdraw, but almost all sported wounds of varying severity. Apparently this unit got off relatively lightly.

Buryatia is the latest outlying Russian region to suffer major infrastructure failures, with blackouts reported. Buryatia, located on the border with Mongolia, has suffered large numbers of casualties in Ukraine and has an active secessionist movement.

A member of the North Korean delegation in Moscow has been found drowned in the "Big City Pond." Unclear if suicide or an accident.

Ukraine is fielding the jet-powered "Bullet" drone, a low-cost, high-speed drone designed for aerial interception and penetrating more heavily-defended AA spaces.

Since a generator at the Rostov nuclear plant was compromised, rolling blackouts across parts of southern Russian have been ongoing. When asked if this was the result of Ukrainian action, Putin instead lamented that it was down to Russian cryptocurrency mining.

Russian media spreading a weird story that President Xi has had a stroke and is on the verge of death. Nobody else really is paying attention to this story. The Chinese have previously responded negatively to Russia media stories about them, so interesting to see if the media organisations get censured over this one.

Interesting one, apparently Boris Johnson has visited Donald Trump and convinced him that defending Ukraine is in the USA's national interest. Which is entirely possible, but that could last until the next conversation with a Ukraine-sceptic, who'd probably convince Trump of the exact opposite.

Owch. Some reporting that more than one-quarter of Ukraine's total KIA for the entire war came from the Battle for Bakhmut alone, specifically after Russia secured the high ground around the flanks of the city and were able to use short-range artillery to augment their long-range weapons. Ukraine saw between 10,000 and 11,000 KIA as opposed to killing over 20,000 Wagner mercenaries, mostly expendable convicts, and an unclear number of regular Russian troops. After the Ukrainian withdrawal, they were able to use the terrain to their advantage and were able to retake much of the southern flank of the city and bombard the centre themselves, killing thousands more Russian troops, but had to suspend that effort and withdraw to positions further west once artillery ammo supplies became scarce. The battles did significantly delay Russian advances in this sector, but the cost may have been far too high.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 July 2024 - 10:14 PM

[Werthead]

France will fully train and equip one of Ukraine's fifteen reserve brigades, starting this summer.

Ukrainian MiG conversions to allow them to carry eight glide bombs are complete and Ukrainian glide bomb attacks along parts of the front are increasing. Ukrainian aircraft bombed the Luhansk City Airport, which has been used for military attacks for some time, whilst Ukrainian ground forces shot down another Russian Su-25 (the third in the last fortnight) making a suicidal direct attack on the front lines near Pokrovsk. This indicates increasing degrading of Russian AA effectiveness along the front, with several holes in the air defence cover above the main fronts, whilst Ukrainian AA effectiveness seems to be restored with the arrival of fresh platforms. Ukrainian AA intercepted and destroyed several Iskander-Ms in the last few days, a striking improvement in effectiveness against a missile they'd had a spotty interception history against.

Russian Telegram having a very serious argument over drone production. Russian corruption and problems in supply chains, plus sanctions, are preventing Russia from significantly scaling up drone production. Traditional arms suppliers (shells, planes, tanks) are apparently unconvinced by drone utility and are successfully diverting funds to their projects. China has apparently scaled back plans to supply parts that could be used in military drones, whilst the US and Europe have promised a million drones to Ukraine in concert with their own production, which is immense. Several claims that Ukrainian drone numbers have increased to 10:1 against Russia, and in some areas drones are so numerous that they can be used to kill individual soldiers rather than higher-value targets. The Russian analysts now believe that many Ukrainian drones, if not a majority, have an autonomous operation mode where the drone switches to an AI-directed targeting system if cut off by EW, so they carry on and complete the mission. Some Russian soldiers killed whilst aiming their now-useless EW guns at incoming drones.

A Russian tank assault in the Kurakhvoe sector, Donetsk, was defeated by the Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade. Three T-72B3M tanks were destroyed, two APCs were disabled and six soldiers on foot were neutralised by drones. One of the Russian soldiers hid in a building, which was subsequently destroyed by a Ukrainian glide bomb. The T-72B3M is an effective, upgraded tank for use on the Ukrainian battlefield and has been moderately more effective than other Russian tanks so far, so the loss of three of them is a blow.

The UK is pioneering a new form of assistance to Ukraine, by offering Ukraine very low-interest loans guaranteed by the internal bank. This allows Ukraine to fund projects at a considerably lower interest rate than by other means (including internal). Other countries may follow suit. This eases the war strain on Ukraine's (better-performing than expected) economy. Zelensky has also become the first foreign leader to visit 10 Downing Street under Prime Minister Starmer's watch, and the first foreign leader to address the British Cabinet since the 1990s.

The Russian 1307th Regiment has been sent promised reinforcements, but these are older men, some even in their 60s, whom they call "cardio troops." They are annoyed because these men aren't even fit older guys, but are badly out of shape and cannot march long distances or carry large amounts of weight. Some of them were told by recruiters that they just needed to sit in a trench and fire at the enemy, and are shocked when they are told they need to advance and take up new lines. In some cases, they lag and are killed, sometimes when carrying equipment vital for the rest of the regiment, forcing other troops to carry their gear. In some cases the older men are veterans of Chechnya or even Afghanistan and thought they could handle the fighting, but are shocked by the intensity of combat on the Ukrainian front, which is far beyond those conflicts. They seemed particularly ignorant of the idea they could be killed by a drone at almost any moment, day or night, without warning.

A rolling electricity blackout scheme is now in place in Crimea, impacting Alushta, Belgorsk, Evpatoria, Kerch, Armyansk, Saki, Simferopol, Sudak, Feodosia and Yalta.

Vegetation cover in Crimea has suffered an 85% collapse since the start of the war. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam has cut off water from the North Crimean Canal and the Kakhovka Canal from the Dnipro, collapsing irrigation efforts across Crimea and parts of Kherson Oblast. The area used to be a semi-arid desert region, and it looks like it is reverting to that type, which will introduce significant problems for keeping the region habitable. Obviously, until the war concludes there can be no talk of rebuilding the dam, there is little inducement for Ukraine to do so whilst these regions remain under occupation. At the moment water reserves are being diverted for military use, leaving interior settlements with little or no water supplies.

A Russian missile hit a playground in Mykolaiv, killing 14 civilians, including 4 children.

Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Krynky, the long-held foothold on the south bank of the Dnipro. Holding this beachhead had been controversial, with around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded over a nine-month campaign. However, Ukraine claims that it had killed ten times or more than number of Russian soldiers trying to retake the village (or its ruins, the village no longer exists with even the ruins flattened by months of bombing by both sides). The decision to withdraw seems to be an acknowledgement that resupplying the beachhead had become impractical, and Russian reinforcing of the area out of an apparent fear of a mass Ukrainian offensive across the river (somehow) had achieved one of their other objectives, drawing some Russian attention away from Donetsk and Kharkiv. Also, holding a beachhead if you're not going to break out of it is a bit of a waste of time.

Ukraine has also admitted to losses in Russian long-range attacks on its airfields, with two aircraft (an Su-27 and a MiG-29) and a helicopter destroyed in the last few weeks. They also confirmed the losses of numerous dummy aircraft, confirming their deception plans seem to be working well.

Massive Ukrainian drone strike on the Millerovo Airfield in Rostov Oblast, a forward operating airbase used by Russian aircraft to bomb targets in Ukraine. The airfield has sustained multiple hits, one of the hanger complexes looks like it's on fire, the runway has been hit (probably easily repairable, but still) and the fuel storage compound appears to be ablaze.

A small riot in Dagestan and a larger protest in Krasnodar Krai, both about infrastructure failures. In the former, a group of Russian police (unclear if they were Rosvgardia, they generally don't operate in such a way but might have been specially deployed) confronted protesters and two of the Russians were promptly run over by a car. The protest in Krasnodar is tense, but so far peaceful.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces have engaged and destroyed a drone in the Red Sea.

(checks notes)

Huh.

On a more serious note, the Russians have managed to advance around 6km in the last week on the Pokrovsk sector. This is still well within Donetsk Oblast, on the old Avdiivka front, but over 20km from Avdiivka (meaning that this marks Russia's most successful area of advance in possibly two years, infinitely more successful than Kharkiv). Ukraine is possibly looking at reinforcing from the Kherson sector, but it's an area where their manpower limitations may be coming into play. Fully reinforcing this sector may not be possible without also pulling from Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces have the initiative, but this sector collapsing could lead to Russia occupying most of the rest of Donetsk Oblast, which would be a far greater geostrategic loss than fully liberating Kharkiv.

Particularly troublesome would be a Russian multi-front northwards advance along the line in this area, which would outflank New York from the west (where Ukrainian forces have regained the initiative in previous days) and start to make the front south of Kramatorsk look dicey. A battle for Kramatorsk and the near-immediately-neighbouring city of Slovyansk would be staggeringly destructive and bloody.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 23 July 2024 - 07:53 PM

[Cyphon]

Werthead, on 23 July 2024 - 07:53 PM, said:

Ukrainian forces have engaged and destroyed a drone in the Red Sea.

(checks notes)

Huh.

On a more serious note, the Russians have managed to advance around 6km in the last week on the Pokrovsk sector. This is still well within Donetsk Oblast, on the old Avdiivka front, but over 20km from Avdiivka (meaning that this marks Russia's most successful area of advance in possibly two years, infinitely more successful than Kharkiv). Ukraine is possibly looking at reinforcing from the Kherson sector, but it's an area where their manpower limitations may be coming into play. Fully reinforcing this sector may not be possible without also pulling from Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces have the initiative, but this sector collapsing could lead to Russia occupying most of the rest of Donetsk Oblast, which would be a far greater geostrategic loss than fully liberating Kharkiv.

Particularly troublesome would be a Russian multi-front northwards advance along the line in this area, which would outflank New York from the west (where Ukrainian forces have regained the initiative in previous days) and start to make the front south of Kramatorsk look dicey. A battle for Kramatorsk and the near-immediately-neighbouring city of Slovyansk would be staggeringly destructive and bloody.

I find it interesting (?) that the narrative that I get from these very informative messages is that if Ukrainian success and Russian ineptitude, but then suddenly Russian making seemly great strides to potentially force a geostrategic win. Is that just my lack of context of the wider position and balance of power etc etc?

[Werthead]

Cyphon, on 23 July 2024 - 10:16 PM, said:

I find it interesting (?) that the narrative that I get from these very informative messages is that if Ukrainian success and Russian ineptitude, but then suddenly Russian making seemly great strides to potentially force a geostrategic win. Is that just my lack of context of the wider position and balance of power etc etc?

A very simplistic reduction of the conflict in Ukraine is that Ukraine needs to be lucky, skilled, disciplined and intelligent on every part of the front almost simultaneously. Russia can be as stupid, inept and inefficient as it likes, but it only just needs to get lucky on one front at one time where Ukraine has a lack of manpower or equipment (or both) to make significant progress. Ukraine can shore up this new threat like it did in Kharkiv, but likely only at the cost of abandoning the counter-attack on the Kharkiv front short of their ideal target, which is completely ejecting Russian forces from that sector, which would be a major PR victory (although some might argue they've done enough, the casualties Russia has sustained for tiny gains inside the border are probably the most insane life-to-land ratio loss in the war to date, and maybe any war to date, but that's not as succinct a headline).

Russia has overall manpower and, in some categories, equipment superiority so can still take the initiative and gain ground. Ukraine has the tools to slow them down and deliver local reversals, but not regain the strategic initiative due to a lack of equipment at present. They apparently have 15 full combat brigades' worth of troops, some new recruits, some seasoned units being regenerated, but not the equipment for them, hence France agreeing to supply one of them in full; 15 full combat brigades would allow them to launch a massive counter-offensive dwarfing the modest one from last year. Depending on how overseas elections go later this year, they might simply not be able to get enough equipment to achieve that.

What's frustrating is that we can see Russia's economy, which has persevered more strongly than expected, starting to seriously crack with the interest rate hike this week, the rouble continuing to be shaky, Russian oil exports collapsing, and their equipment parks are completely denuded of useful, more-or-less modern equipment, so once that is lost in the field, they'll be down to the real dregs, and after that point Russia's ability to wage this war will degrade (probably not collapse overnight, but become more and more problematic, hence why Putin has started putting peace feelers out). This is basically a stress test between the two countries which is seriously weakening both, and there's always been a serious risk that Ukraine might buckle or break first, in one or more areas before Russia does. Hopefully this isn't it, otherwise those F-16s might arrive too late.

That's probably too alarmist at the moment: the Povrovsk front is apparently weakened due to a lack of drone cover, which they are trying to rectify and should be able to (Ukraine has a massive drone advantage over Russia). Also, a chunk of the ground Russia gained seemed to be around a canal system that Ukraine was planning to use defensively, but summer in that area has been brutal and the canals are pretty dry, reducing or eliminating their defensive value, so Ukraine has pulled back further than they liked. Russia has not broken through the Ukrainian lines, but it has forced them to roll backwards more than their battle plan initially allowed for.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 23 July 2024 - 10:46 PM

[Mentalist]

Cyphon, on 23 July 2024 - 10:16 PM, said:

Werthead, on 23 July 2024 - 07:53 PM, said:

Ukrainian forces have engaged and destroyed a drone in the Red Sea.

(checks notes)

Huh.

On a more serious note, the Russians have managed to advance around 6km in the last week on the Pokrovsk sector. This is still well within Donetsk Oblast, on the old Avdiivka front, but over 20km from Avdiivka (meaning that this marks Russia's most successful area of advance in possibly two years, infinitely more successful than Kharkiv). Ukraine is possibly looking at reinforcing from the Kherson sector, but it's an area where their manpower limitations may be coming into play. Fully reinforcing this sector may not be possible without also pulling from Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces have the initiative, but this sector collapsing could lead to Russia occupying most of the rest of Donetsk Oblast, which would be a far greater geostrategic loss than fully liberating Kharkiv.

Particularly troublesome would be a Russian multi-front northwards advance along the line in this area, which would outflank New York from the west (where Ukrainian forces have regained the initiative in previous days) and start to make the front south of Kramatorsk look dicey. A battle for Kramatorsk and the near-immediately-neighbouring city of Slovyansk would be staggeringly destructive and bloody.

I find it interesting (?) that the narrative that I get from these very informative messages is that if Ukrainian success and Russian ineptitude, but then suddenly Russian making seemly great strides to potentially force a geostrategic win. Is that just my lack of context of the wider position and balance of power etc etc?

The insane disparity in starting conditions (that's only been partially alleviated by Western support) means that Ukraine's been punching several times above their weight. But they are doing so against an enemy that's several magnitudes bigger, in terms of the available manpower, old (but semi-functional, and absolutely deadly) equipment, and the sheer ruthlessness to continue pressing regardless of casualties.

The enemy is advancing, because they have the firepower (via artillery, and especially guided glide bombs) to demolish fieldworks and hardpoints- and then they have the manpower to swarm the positions with banzai charges that lead to a ton of casualties- but eventually force Ukrainians to retreat. And that's in optimal conditions, when our units have appropriate communications, artillery support, and enough drones to see what's going on and launch FPV kamikazes to disrupt enemy attacks.
Any singe variable not being good can lead to a loss of position- be in a house basement, a treeeline trenchwork, or something more serious. The orcs are generally giving up tens if not hundreds of lives to advance each few hundred meters- but because of the scale of the maps we all look at, it still looks like "an advance", although any military analyst would tell you it's a crawl at best.

The only "strategic"- level successes Moscow is likely to be having in the immediate future would be diplomatic- in particular, if they can disrupt American support after the November election, which seems to be their primary game plan atm. They enjoyed serious advantage when the prior Ukraine aid bill got deadlocked in Congress for over 5 months, and they were able to make modest gains- at the cost of thousands of lives. Even then, they undid a lot of that advantage when UA got permission to strike targets across the border into Russian mainland with Western weapons, which significantly negates some of their options for exerting pressure on Ukraine across the entire frontline.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has shot down a sixth Su-25 that was engaged in a suicidal direct attack on a fortified area of the front. That strikes me that the Russian high command is driving its troops to insane expenditure of lives and equipment in the hope of achieving a breakthrough.

The new Minister of Defence is a total military novice, he's an economist, but what he's doing now doesn't make sense economically either.

Russia has also deployed more of its WWII-era artillery systems to the front, which is not a sign things are going well.

[Werthead]

Saky Airbase in Crimea took a heavy pounding overnight. Unclear how many aircraft were lost, but not likely to be high-value ones that close to the front.

The US has stated that it has found over $2 billion in savings on equipment already delivered to Ukraine (i.e. over-estimates from contractors etc). This $2 billion saving has been immediately been put back into the Ukraine fund and will be used to source more equipment.

Russian drones tried to hit Izmail, a town right on the border with Romania which has been used as a port for exports down to the Black Sea. At least three drones entered Romanian airspace and were shot down by Gepard AA guns stationed on NATO soil. Finnish-piloted F/A-18s took to the sky during the attack and monitored the border area, but did not engage.

The Bucharest government is playing this down, but it's a fairly sizeable moment, and could provide a precedent for Poland's AA systems to engage Russian systems over Ukrainian and Polish soil.

Russia has raised interest rates to 18%, further spooking investors and creating fears of a major economic crisis. Russia narrowly avoided an economic meltdown a couple of months ago over the devaluation of the rouble.

Discontent in the Russian military: soldiers who kill themselves to avoid capture or because they have been mortally wounded forfeit any death payments to their family. But soldiers who surrender may also not receive further payments for the duration of their capture.

Rolling blackouts in Krasnodar Krai continue, with more and larger street protests. Ukraine disabled several local power generators and Russia has not been able to repair them yet.

A large protest has taken place in Donetsk city. Residents are complaining about poor sanitation and intermittent power blackouts. Some villages in Donetsk Oblast have not had functioning water supplies since 2022.

The Wall Street Journal has expanded on the "Trump Peace Plan" scenario, apparently developed by David J. Urban and Mike Pompeo. The plan will call on both sides to come to the negotiating table, with Ukrainian aid cut off in full if Ukraine fails to comply. If Ukraine agrees and Russia does not, the Trump White House will immediately enact a $500 billion lend-lease plan for Ukraine, remove all limitations on weapons use in Russia and develop additional sanctions on Russia and countries supply them. This chimes with recent suggestions that Boris Johnson has convinced Trump to take a harder line on Russia. This plan has not been publicly endorsed by Trump though.

1.5 billion euros has been transferred from interest on frozen Russian interests to Ukraine by the European Union.

[Werthead]

Russia has formed a new military force called "Tiger Unit" which will protect Russian cities and civilians from returning "violent veterans" of the SMO. Interesting, if fucked up.

Ukrainian front-line troops are reporting that, by far, the best vehicle they've received from western partners is the Bradley, which is so well-armoured it has saved lives even if the entire vehicle is lost. Of the ~300 Ukraine has received, around 90 have been destroyed, disabled, captured or cannibalised to repair others. The US is apparently considering sending another large contingent over.

The situation in the south is getting worse for both sides in two sectors. Pokrovsk I discussed a few days back, and the situation there remains challenging (though some small signs of possible improvement)/ In Robotyne, Ukrainian drone coverage is forcing Russian infantry to dismount from vehicles 8-10km from the objective, meaning by the time they get there they are already knackered and easy meat for Ukrainian counter-fire. Russia has lost thousands of troops in pointless attacks for virtually no territorial gains and very limited Ukrainian losses.

The Russian forces who retook Krynky, a small but noteworthy Russian victory as it ejected the Ukrainians from their toehold south of the Dnipro, were ordered to "continue the advance." They didn't know WTF command was talking about as they'd reached the banks of the Dnipro, one of the widest rivers in Europe. So command provided them with small motorboats and suggested they advance to the far side of the heavily-fortified river, taking the islands along the way (most heavily defended by Ukrainian forces). This has resulted in Ukrainian forces destroying several attempted attacks across the Dnipro River Delta in the face of superior Ukrainian fortified positions, drones and artillery, with air support available.

Good news though is that after a ferocious Ukrainian counter-attack, Russian advances on both New York (not that one) and Toretsk have been halted and even forced back a modest distance. Stopping both attacks was vital as they threatened to turn that part of the Donetsk sector. This may explain the Russian casualty count for yesterday tipping over 1200. It also looks like a major attack on Siversk, near Lyman, was turned back with heavy casualties.

Slovak Prime Minister Fico has apparently offered Ukraine a deal to resume Russian oil transit via Ukraine (!) to Slovakia. What Slovakia will provide in return is unclear, but Slovakia did have large stocks of weapons and several armament factories that suspended work for Ukraine when Fico came to power. Although if Slovakia buys Russian oil via Ukraine whilst providing Ukraine with weapons or money to fight Russia and Russia is fine with that and keeps supplying Slovakia, that will be probably Peak Realpolitik in this war.

Indian Prime Minister Modi will personally visit Kyiv around August 23rd, his first in-person visit of the war.

A Tu-160M strategic nuclear bomber suffered catastrophic engine failure and crashed near Kazan in May. This has caused panic in the air force, because this exact aircraft was used in February to transport Putin. Apparently some arrests have taken place in the maintenance division.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 27 July 2024 - 11:50 AM, said:

Russia has formed a new military force called "Tiger Unit" which will protect Russian cities and civilians from returning "violent veterans" of the SMO. Interesting, if fucked up.

Ukrainian front-line troops are reporting that, by far, the best vehicle they've received from western partners is the Bradley, which is so well-armoured it has saved lives even if the entire vehicle is lost. Of the ~300 Ukraine has received, around 90 have been destroyed, disabled, captured or cannibalised to repair others. The US is apparently considering sending another large contingent over.

The situation in the south is getting worse for both sides in two sectors. Pokrovsk I discussed a few days back, and the situation there remains challenging (though some small signs of possible improvement)/ In Robotyne, Ukrainian drone coverage is forcing Russian infantry to dismount from vehicles 8-10km from the objective, meaning by the time they get there they are already knackered and easy meat for Ukrainian counter-fire. Russia has lost thousands of troops in pointless attacks for virtually no territorial gains and very limited Ukrainian losses.

The Russian forces who retook Krynky, a small but noteworthy Russian victory as it ejected the Ukrainians from their toehold south of the Dnipro, were ordered to "continue the advance." They didn't know WTF command was talking about as they'd reached the banks of the Dnipro, one of the widest rivers in Europe. So command provided them with small motorboats and suggested they advance to the far side of the heavily-fortified river, taking the islands along the way (most heavily defended by Ukrainian forces). This has resulted in Ukrainian forces destroying several attempted attacks across the Dnipro River Delta in the face of superior Ukrainian fortified positions, drones and artillery, with air support available.

Good news though is that after a ferocious Ukrainian counter-attack, Russian advances on both New York (not that one) and Toretsk have been halted and even forced back a modest distance. Stopping both attacks was vital as they threatened to turn that part of the Donetsk sector. This may explain the Russian casualty count for yesterday tipping over 1200. It also looks like a major attack on Siversk, near Lyman, was turned back with heavy casualties.

Slovak Prime Minister Fico has apparently offered Ukraine a deal to resume Russian oil transit via Ukraine (!) to Slovakia. What Slovakia will provide in return is unclear, but Slovakia did have large stocks of weapons and several armament factories that suspended work for Ukraine when Fico came to power. Although if Slovakia buys Russian oil via Ukraine whilst providing Ukraine with weapons or money to fight Russia and Russia is fine with that and keeps supplying Slovakia, that will be probably Peak Realpolitik in this war.

Indian Prime Minister Modi will personally visit Kyiv around August 23rd, his first in-person visit of the war.

A Tu-160M strategic nuclear bomber suffered catastrophic engine failure and crashed near Kazan in May. This has caused panic in the air force, because this exact aircraft was used in February to transport Putin. Apparently some arrests have taken place in the maintenance division.

The thing with the current arrangement for gas and oil being transported through UA is that the European buyers (mostly landlocked CEE countries like Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia) "buy", i.e., take ownership of the commodity once it crosses Ukraine's Western border. Meaning, UA is transporting "Russian-owned" gas and oil through its territory- and thus it needs to continue business dealings with Gazprom, LukOil, Rosneft, etc, charging them for using UA's pipelines and gas storage facilities.

What Ukraine wants is for these buyers to take ownership as soon as the commodities cross RU-UA border- then Ukraine needs to arrange transit & storage payments with the buyers directly, and it eliminates the need to continue talking to Russians.
This is something Kyiv has been trying to get done for a while now, so there isn't really anything new here.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 26 July 2024 - 04:10 PM, said:

...If Ukraine agrees and Russia does not, the Trump White House will immediately enact a $500 billion lend-lease plan for Ukraine, remove all limitations on weapons use in Russia and develop additional sanctions on Russia and countries supply them. This chimes with recent suggestions that Boris Johnson has convinced Trump to take a harder line on Russia. This plan has not been publicly endorsed by Trump though....

because it would NEVER. HAPPEN.

[Mentalist]

HUR claims they got a successful drone strike on the Olenya airbase (the one in Murmans'k Oblast, close to the border w/ Finland and Norway), which is the home of the orcs' long-range strategic bombers.

Unconfirmed so far, but would be absolutely massive news, if true. We are talking about 1800 km from the UA border, and it's the primary base for all of their long-range aviation. The backup one is in the Far East.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian Special Forces have deployed to Mali (!) to coordinate efforts with the Tuareg rebels. They lured Russian Wagner fighters into an ambush and killed eighty of them.