[the broken]

Wouldn't we have heard if any giant ammo dumps got blown up, though.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

the broken, on 04 February 2024 - 08:44 PM, said:

Wouldn't we have heard if any giant ammo dumps got blown up, though.

The conspiratorial answer would be that Ukraine could be suppressing the good news to put more pressure on allies to provide ammunition. But would Ukraine be able to suppress footage of this---and more generally prevent international monitoring organizations from being aware of it? It seems unlikely but IDK. Would the explosions be large enough for surveillance satellites to pick them up?

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 04 February 2024 - 09:01 PM

[Werthead]

When Ukraine was raining hell behind Russian lines when they first got HIMARS, systematically destroying ammo depots along the front, we did get quite a lot of footage, so I'd assume the same would be the case again.

I think the shell shortage might be Russia stockpiling for an offensive elsewhere, or after months of complaints they're actually safety-checking the North Korean shells that have come in before sending them to the front, resulting in a logjam.

[Werthead]

Unconfirmed report that Russia launched 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missiles (max speed allegedly Mach 9) at targets in Ukraine today. It's hard to tell because they were shot down in mid-flight, so if they were Zircons, they're distinctly not living up to their billing.

First confirmed use of KN-23 North Korean ballistic missiles against targets in Ukraine.

The Izhevsk missile production plant in Russia was hit by drones and significant damage was incurred. Extent of the damage unclear but the explosion was quite large and areas of the plant remained on fire for some time afterwards. 

A better assessment of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure: seven of Russia's ten largest refineries have been hit, several quite badly. This contributed to a 37% drop in oil exports for January 2023 and a 23% drop in diesel.

Ecuador has agreed to a deal to swap air defence systems to the US in return for modern American air defence systems. The older AA systems will then be sent to Ukraine. SA-8B Geckos, hardly state of the art but a solid short-range AA system.

The Wild Hornets drone team in Ukraine has reduced their production cost per FPV drone to $350. They currently estimate for every $1 spent on Ukraine's drone programme, $200 of Russian equipment and personnel has been destroyed. Also, some claims that Ukrainian drones are experimenting with autonomous AI programming: the operator guides the drone to the edge of the jamming zone and once the jamming kicks in, the AI takes over and delivers the drone to the target regardless. It's unclear if this is actually in use in the field, but if so it might explain the very sharp uptick in Ukrainian drone effectiveness in the last few months.

If true, this is interesting. Iran didn't trust Russian cash, so the payment for their Shahed drones was literally in gold.

[Mentalist]

Izhevsk is over 1200 km from the nearest UAF-controlled territory, so drone usage is unconfirmed. Local officials are blaming technical malfunction. Can't rule out sabotage, since this is one of the Volga region Muslim republics, and could have some potential anti-Federal sentiments.

Situation in Avdiyivka is... not great. They're making a toehold in the residential outskirts in the N. Unless the resupply situation's resolved swiftly, I wouldn't be surprised if the city's remains are lost before the end of the month.

Rada approved the 1st draft of the new mobilization legislation bill. We'll see how long it takes to get the potential amendments through commmittee

[Mentalist]

So Zelensky removed Zaluzhny, but "he is stil part of our team".

Former Ground Forces commander, Syrsky is now CiC.

Hrm.

EDIT: US Senate passed the bill on aid to UA, Israel and Taiwan.

Now it's going to Congress, sans the border/immigration issues.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 08 February 2024 - 06:08 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Putin Nearly Bores Tucker to Death With 2-Hour History Class

[...] Instead of responding, Putin delved into another history lesson, going back all the way to 1654 and prompting Carlson to ask, "Do you believe Hungary has a right to take its land back from Ukraine, and that other nations have a right to go back to their 1654 borders?"

When Putin demurred, Carlson persisted, "Have you told Viktor Orbán that he can have part of Ukraine?" Putin replied, "Never. I have never told him. Not a single time."

Putin Nearly Bores Tucker Carlson to Death With Two-Hour History Lesson (thedailybeast.com)

lol, I'm tempted to give Tucker the tiniest scrap of credit for pointing out the glaring hypocrisy there---or perhaps he was fantasizing about Hungary joining the war on the side of Russia? And then taking back the rest of the Austro-Hungarian Empire (... probably as Putin's puppet)?

Actually, looking up the history for the period around 1654,

Quote

With the conquest of Buda by the Turks in 1541, Hungary was divided into three parts and remained so until the end of the 17th century. The north-western part, termed as Royal Hungary, was annexed by the Habsburgs who ruled as kings of Hungary. The eastern part of the kingdom became independent as the Principality of Transylvania, under Ottoman (and later Habsburg) suzerainty. The remaining central area, including the capital Buda, was known as the Pashalik of Buda.

In 1686, the Holy League's army, [...] from various nations, reconquered Buda from the Turks.

Hungary - Wikipedia

What if an 'unofficial' mercenary contingent in Hungary were attacking Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces retaliated on Hungarian soil? Would NATO then be obligated to join the war against Ukraine? Somehow I doubt that would work, though I'd guess that Tucker and his ilk have been cooking up scenarios like this in the paranoid fever swamp dreams of their interlocking (spiralling) brains....

[Edit: or Russia/Hungary conspired to make it look like Ukraine had attacked Hungary, perhaps bribing some Ukrainians sympathetic to Russia... or very sympathetic to lots of money (and protection).]

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 February 2024 - 04:51 PM

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 09 February 2024 - 04:49 PM, said:

Quote

Putin Nearly Bores Tucker to Death With 2-Hour History Class

[...] Instead of responding, Putin delved into another history lesson, going back all the way to 1654 and prompting Carlson to ask, "Do you believe Hungary has a right to take its land back from Ukraine, and that other nations have a right to go back to their 1654 borders?"

When Putin demurred, Carlson persisted, "Have you told Viktor Orbán that he can have part of Ukraine?" Putin replied, "Never. I have never told him. Not a single time."

Putin Nearly Bores Tucker Carlson to Death With Two-Hour History Lesson (thedailybeast.com)

lol, I'm tempted to give Tucker the tiniest scrap of credit for pointing out the glaring hypocrisy there---or perhaps he was fantasizing about Hungary joining the war on the side of Russia? And then taking back the rest of the Austro-Hungarian Empire (... probably as Putin's puppet)?

Actually, looking up the history for the period around 1654,

Quote

With the conquest of Buda by the Turks in 1541, Hungary was divided into three parts and remained so until the end of the 17th century. The north-western part, termed as Royal Hungary, was annexed by the Habsburgs who ruled as kings of Hungary. The eastern part of the kingdom became independent as the Principality of Transylvania, under Ottoman (and later Habsburg) suzerainty. The remaining central area, including the capital Buda, was known as the Pashalik of Buda.

In 1686, the Holy League's army, [...] from various nations, reconquered Buda from the Turks.

Hungary - Wikipedia

What if an 'unofficial' mercenary contingent in Hungary were attacking Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces retaliated on Hungarian soil? Would NATO then be obligated to join the war against Ukraine? Somehow I doubt that would work, though I'd guess that Tucker and his ilk have been cooking up scenarios like this in the paranoid fever swamp dreams of their interlocking (spiralling) brains....

[Edit: or Russia/Hungary conspired to make it look like Ukraine had attacked Hungary, perhaps bribing some Ukrainians sympathetic to Russia... or very sympathetic to lots of money (and protection).]

Ukraine has 0 claims onto Hungary, as some border districts in Zakarpattya have a hungarian majority (but not vice versa)
In addition, most of that border runs along the course of the Tysa river, so making an incursion isn't exactly easy.

Hungarians generally believe their "Greater Hungary" should include ALL of Slovakia (aka "Upper Hungary"), roughly 3/4s of Croatia, and about a third of Romania . Oh, and Belgrade was a Hungarian fortress. Ukrainian Transcarpathian Oblast' is a tiny slice compared to all of this.
Fortunately, they don't exactly have an army, or the resources to be able to press any such claims.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Suppose Trump returns to power but doesn't withdraw from NATO... because he knows Putin and Orban are conspiring to make it seem as if Ukrainian military forces have attacked Hungary. Then, assuming the rest of NATO refuses to 'honor' the treaty and retaliate against Ukraine, Trump would have his justification for ordering the US military to attack Ukraine, possibly giving Putin a relatively quick victory. Then Trump, feigning moral outrage about the US being the only member of NATO to honor the treaty, would withdraw from NATO just in time for Putin to start invading NATO countries.

The main issue with this seems to be that the US military hopefully would not go along with it (Trump hopefully won't be able to compromise enough of the US military, but I'm not so sure about that, especially if he gains autocratic powers... but he may find enough people in the military willing and able to launch attacks on Ukraine). Perhaps Putin and Orban would also have a very hard time creating a remotely plausible Ukrainian attack on Hungary (though IDK whether Putin has any Ukrainians already acting as covert Russian agents...). I'm also not sure how the NATO mutual defense treaty would treat an attack seemingly conducted by Ukrainian forces that the Ukrainian government convincingly maintains was not authorized---though Trump and MAGA wouldn't care. They could make up any nonsense for explaining why Ukraine would attack Hungary---Ukrainian Nazis wanting to attack Christianity, Orban's support for Russia, whatever. But perhaps that also means they wouldn't need a false flag as justification; I'm not sure it would make much of a difference for the non-MAGA US populace.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 February 2024 - 04:30 PM

[Werthead]

I think we've drifted very firmly into the realms of fantasy.

Trump might try to withdraw from NATO, but I think Congress has made that much more difficult. The argument has been made that if the US does not respond to an attack on Europe, then the US's various allies in NATO and elsewhere would be under no obligation to come to the aid of the United States if it was attacked by China in the Indo-Pacific region, and that might shift calculations to make such an attack more likely (the Chinese have to be thinking that an attack on the US and US bases in the region would result in retaliation from Australia, Japan etc, massive economic action by Europe etc, but if they think such an attack would go unanswered by anyone else because Trump has betrayed them already, that makes that a more viable option).

More likely is that this is Trump saying crazy stuff to get on the airwaves but once in power he would not follow through. He might not give Ukraine any more aid (unless they magically show up with some evidence about Hunter Biden's laptop or whatever he's ranting on about that particular week), but there's a big difference between that and doing something to spectacularly weaken the United States itself.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 11 February 2024 - 08:18 PM, said:

I think we've drifted very firmly into the realms of fantasy.

Trump might try to withdraw from NATO, but I think Congress has made that much more difficult. The argument has been made that if the US does not respond to an attack on Europe, then the US's various allies in NATO and elsewhere would be under no obligation to come to the aid of the United States if it was attacked by China in the Indo-Pacific region, and that might shift calculations to make such an attack more likely (the Chinese have to be thinking that an attack on the US and US bases in the region would result in retaliation from Australia, Japan etc, massive economic action by Europe etc, but if they think such an attack would go unanswered by anyone else because Trump has betrayed them already, that makes that a more viable option).

More likely is that this is Trump saying crazy stuff to get on the airwaves but once in power he would not follow through. He might not give Ukraine any more aid (unless they magically show up with some evidence about Hunter Biden's laptop or whatever he's ranting on about that particular week), but there's a big difference between that and doing something to spectacularly weaken the United States itself.

But Trump doesn't really care if China takes Taiwan. Perhaps his advisors could convince him that the disruption to Taiwan's production of semiconductors (TSMC aims to make it 'impossible' for China to quickly restart their production lines after seizing Taiwan) would have too much of a negative impact on the US economy, but I'm not so sure about that. Trump could make a deal with China to allow them to have Taiwan, perhaps coordinating it with Russian attacks, or US attacks on Ukraine.

This is drifting to what I hope are the outer reaches of probability, but war-gaming conceivable but implausible scenarios and evaluating exactly why they are unlikely to happen (if in fact they are) is at least interesting IMO. Trump loves the Twilight Zone and I'm pretty sure he encourages his advisors to come up with ideas like this (and the US military does the same... to anticipate how to respond to 'worst-case scenarios' (but 'No worst, there is none...'?')).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 February 2024 - 08:52 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

China said a victory [...] by Trump [...] could lead to the U.S. abandoning Taiwan

[...] an interview Trump gave Fox News [...] in which he avoided directly answering a query over whether as president he'd defend Taiwan if China attacked.

"If I answer that question, it'll put me in a very bad negotiating position," Trump said [...] "With that being said, Taiwan did take all of our chip business."

China Says Trump May Abandon Taiwan | TIME

Straight from the ass's mouth....

China will probably wait to invade Taiwan until they have a sufficient alternative source of semiconductors and other necessary components. It seems Trump would have more to gain, at least in terms of personal wealth, if he allied with China and Russia (assuming China would provide him with a substantial payment in exchange for this). Perhaps his 'best' strategy as president would be to pretend to be aiding Taiwan while actually undermining them---at least by preventing US forces from intervening in a Chinese invasion, if not actively providing Taiwan with faulty (or worse) equipment or aiding China in the invasion and occuption.

The obvious counterargument is that Trump would be concerned about China's military or economic power eventually exceeding that of the US, and thus his own (if he lives that long). But for the next few years China would be busy occupying Taiwan for one; in the short term (and probably Trump's remaining lifetime, unless life extension technology advances considerably in time) it would weaken China's military. The EU could sanction China, but would it be willing to effectively sanction the US as well? The blow to the EU economy would be huge, especially if Putin is simultaneously at war with the remaining members of NATO and the EU has no sufficient alternative source of semiconductors.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 February 2024 - 09:53 PM

[Tsundoku]

This is being hailed as one of the best mic drops ever. Easy to see why:

https://twitter.com/...1d993d4c6ea551d

[Abyss]

Tsundoku, on 13 February 2024 - 09:34 AM, said:

This is being hailed as one of the best mic drops ever. Easy to see why:

https://twitter.com/...1d993d4c6ea551d

That is very funny.

Sneaky too, bcs massive chunks of the 'Mongol Empire' were empty with ridiculous distances between small towns, or nomadic territories, but i appreciate the shot at Putin's utter garbage about Ukraine.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Abyss, on 13 February 2024 - 02:44 PM, said:

Tsundoku, on 13 February 2024 - 09:34 AM, said:

This is being hailed as one of the best mic drops ever. Easy to see why:

https://twitter.com/...1d993d4c6ea551d

That is very funny.

Sneaky too, bcs massive chunks of the 'Mongol Empire' were empty with ridiculous distances between small towns, or nomadic territories, but i appreciate the shot at Putin's utter garbage about Ukraine.

Mongolia to the rescue! I'm envisioning that gigantic statue of Genghis Khan with tiny, sagging (shirtless) Putin under it (preferably after one of the horse's hooves has stepped on him, now that I think about it...).

Wonder how different the world would be right now if the Mongolian Empire had converted everyone in it to Tibetan Buddhism... and it stuck. Of course, while not Tibetan Buddhist, Myanmar and imperial Japan are obvious examples of how Buddhism doesn't necessarily lead to nonviolence.... If Putin were a 'Buddhist' (Tibetan or otherwise) his iconography would be different but otherwise I don't think all that much would change (to the extent that anything has any essence other than emptiness, and change...).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 February 2024 - 04:57 PM

[Mentalist]

So the Senate's passing off the 60 billion aid package to UA (plus 35 for Israel, Taiwan, Kosovo, etc) off to Congress. Where Johnson will do his best to keep it off the docket.

Syrsky seems unwilling to pull back from Avdiyivka, so he's sending 3rd Assault brigade (basically one of the best field units) to try and stabilize the line. I do not have a good a feeling about this.

Something was on fire in Moscow. Some say oil base, others say the Mig factory.

Polish farmers are blocking the border again, b/c they don't want cheap Ukrainian produce undercutting them. Ukraine says it's willing to drop some farmer subsidies in exchange for looser ecological requirements over a transition period as part of its EU assession negotiations.

[Mentalist]

In March of 2022, a Tochka-U missile destroyed landing ship "Saratov". 2 other ships sustained damage, but were able to pull away from the exploding Saratov. These were the Novocherkass'k and Caesar Kunikov

Novocherkassk met a Storm Shadow in Feodosiya on Boxing Day 2023. It was a fiery affair that ended with the ship's superstructure being largely gone.

And today, the day it's namesake died 81 years ago, Caesar Kunikov sank outside Alupka (part of the Yalta Municipal District) after encountering a sea drone swarm.

UA Navy Spokesperson said this is the 4th landing craft sunk. 4 others (including "Olenegorsky Gornyak", which was hit in Novorossiys'k harbor) are undergoing maintenance and supposedly unfit for duty. Leaving only 5 inactive service atm. Out of the 13 they've collected in the Black Sea prior to the war.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has arrived in Avdiivka, immediately engaging Russian forces which had been advancing slowly from the south. It looks like they drove the Russians back from a treeline that had been using for cover. Simultaneously, Ukrainian drone and artillery picked off an armoured column NE of Avdiivka. Not on the scale of the armoured massacre a few weeks ago, but a significant success as the noose around the town continues to tighten (if haphazardly).

It's unclear what the plan is for Avdiivka, if the 3rd Assault is meant to shore up the defensive lines or even try to retake lost territory as in the Bakhmut counter-offensive, or cover a general retreat from the town. The Russians are still finding it bad though, with newly-arrived officers apparently advising troops on how to use sticks (!) to locate mines and fend off drones (what?). The Russians in Avdiivka are still suffering a shell shortage for some reason (though possibly easing), but they are noting they're fortunate that the Ukrainians are still having to hoard their own shells.

Also, widespread missed payments for Russian soldiers on the front, or some units are paid on time, others late, and others not at all, at least until they threaten to go home and then the money shows up.

The Ukrainian Magura V5 naval surface drone has been formally unveiled at UMEX in the UAE, a weapons show, where it attracted positive attention from possible buyers (although I suspect Ukraine is going to need all the ones it has for the time being). This is the drone that was primarily responsible for destroying the Ivanovets and Cezar Kunikov.

Some signs of a successful Ukrainian defence in the Zaporizhzhia region. Unclear where, but a dozen Russian soldiers of the 71st Rifle Regiment surrendered to Ukrainian forces of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade.

Putin has apparently made a back-channel appeal to the United States about a ceasefire, but the US has rejected all communication on the matter, directing him to contact Kyiv instead. This maybe the second or third time this has happened, as it previously happened during a meeting between the head of the CIA and the head of the FSB in Turkey around the time of the successful Kharkiv counter-offensive, when again the head of the CIA said the United States would respect the decision of the government of Ukraine in continuing to fight or not, but communications would have to be directed to them first.

Apparently Putin was not well-briefed on the Carlson interview and how widely it would be reported on in the west, so designed the interview to apparently appeal primarily to Russians, hence the long diatribes on history which Russians would be more familiar with. Apparently Putin is unhappy that he came across as detached and rambling in the interview, and even says he expected Carlson to interrupt him more and ask harder questions, which he was prepared for. Meanwhile, there's infighting in the Kremlin with Kovalchuk (the richest backer of Putin) reportedly blaming Peskov for not briefing Putin properly and Naryshkin (head of the FSB) for talking to Putin at length about Poland and 13th Century history in the run-up to the interview, which gave Putin the idea to go off about it.

A massive Russian ammo dump explosion behind the lines. The Russians are claiming it's the first use of GLSDB guided long-range missiles, and the evidence seems fairly convincing for once.

[Werthead]

At least three Russian airliners have suffered failures mid-flight in the last month or so, having to make emergency landings. The latest was a Sukhoi Superjet 100 of Rossiya Airlines which had to make an emergency landing at Moscow today.

A 100-ton fuel reservoir in Kursk was hit by a Ukrainian drone and is now burning.

The pro-Ukraine Russian Volunteer Corps has also arrived in Avdiivka and joined the defence, apparently at their own request. Seven Russian brigades are now confirmed to be operating in and around the town, but all have suffered significant damage, one reduced to less than 30% full strength. One additional brigade is apparently no longer combat-effective. The Ukrainians are continuing to inflict staggering losses and several Russian milbloggers who have kept quiet since Girkin's arrest have broken cover to angrily declare the leaders of the attack cowards and traitors.

However, the situation remains extremely difficult for the Ukrainians.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 February 2024 - 12:15 AM

[Mentalist]

UAF has finally withdrawn from the Zenit air defence base SE of Avdiyivka.

the orcs' northern push has effectively severed the coke plant from the rest of the city. The gap to bring supplies in is now about 3.5 km wide- which is about half of the worst it got during the Bakhmut envelopment action.

I would presume UAF will withdraw by the end of the month; the question is, where's the next fortified ridge, and how well will it be able to hold without sufficient ammunition.

EDIT: oh, I see that Congress went on a 2 week recess. Lovely.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 16 February 2024 - 02:25 AM