[Mentalist]

There's a radio intercept from SIG saying it's stuck, engine room is flooded and it needs to be towed. Since it was empty, it's unlikely to sink, but will need dry dock repairs.


Basically, UAF is demonstrating (as it warned the same day when Putler ended the grain deal) that shipping to Russian Black and Azov Sea ports in the NE part of the Black Sea is off limits.

I wonder if those drones can be equipped to deliver sea mines to blockade the coastal waters for the orc navy

[Tsundoku]

Mentalist, on 04 August 2023 - 11:57 PM, said:

There's a radio intercept from SIG saying it's stuck, engine room is flooded and it needs to be towed. Since it was empty, it's unlikely to sink, but will need dry dock repairs.


Basically, UAF is demonstrating (as it warned the same day when Putler ended the grain deal) that shipping to Russian Black and Azov Sea ports in the NE part of the Black Sea is off limits.

I wonder if those drones can be equipped to deliver sea mines to blockade the coastal waters for the orc navy

Yeah, not a big fan when it comes to land or sea mines. Those things cause terrible long term problems, way disproportionate to the reasons for putting them there.

[Chance]

Tsundoku, on 05 August 2023 - 01:43 AM, said:

Yeah, not a big fan when it comes to land or sea mines. Those things cause terrible long term problems, way disproportionate to the reasons for putting them there.

Land mines at least stay in the general area where you put them, sea mines will be a navigation and explosives hazard for decades in the entire region. I'm all for using any advantage Ukraine has but I'd think very much before using sea mines, the land mine thing is already a lost cause. Just look on the ww1 and ww2 sea mines we are still clearing a few a year in sweden today and we weren't even part of the conflict. I think ukraine is now the most mined nation in the world which is quite an accomplishment for the relatively short time the conflict has lasted.

for the robot boats however, seems like the black sea will have no safe harbors for the russian navy any longer. In practice it would be easy for Ukraine to threaten traffic to russia even an unrealized threat would probably throw logistics chains out of wack.

Those robot boats are a sneak peek into the future as well which is rather cool.

This post has been edited by Chance: 05 August 2023 - 07:19 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine doesn't even need to massively mine the sea approaches, they just need to carry out a few "spectaculars" like this attack and then confirm that any ship heading to Russian ports on the Black Sea is a viable target, and that uncertainty is going to put a lot of countries off. Then you'll probably get someone like Turkey or Saudi Arabia negotiating a both sides climbdown.

Something odd going on in Nizhny Novgorod. Barricades have been put up around the city and police are not saying why. There's a major airfield nearby (Savasleika) which is home to some aircraft involved in attacks on Ukraine, and an automotive plant which may have been converted partially to parts manufacture for vehicles. But no major Ukrainian attacks on the city, it's significantly further from Ukraine than Moscow. Some suggestions of a heavily localised draft to be announced on Monday, but that's more of a guess than based on any insider information.

Also weirdly, T-14 Armatas were spotted in Kazan, which is even further away from Ukraine than Nizhny Novgorod.

The ruble has taken a hefty tumble this week. Russian economists predicting a temporary problem and it will stabilise, other commentators less sure.

Saudi Arabia making hay out of the peace conference in its borders. No major expectations from it, but it's a sign of Saudi grandstanding and perhaps them concluding that Russia is unlikely to emerge from this conflict particularly strengthened (same calculus as Turkey, but Turkey is more down the path of leaning away from Russia altogether).

A recent uptick in Shahed interceptions is down to a UK-designed short-range interceptor, based on the Supacat chassis which can launch a swarm of ASRAAM missiles. This is a viable low-cost solution to taking out low-cost Iranian drones.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 05 August 2023 - 07:30 PM, said:

Ukraine doesn't even need to massively mine the sea approaches, they just need to carry out a few "spectaculars" like this attack and then confirm that any ship heading to Russian ports on the Black Sea is a viable target, and that uncertainty is going to put a lot of countries off. Then you'll probably get someone like Turkey or Saudi Arabia negotiating a both sides climbdown.

I hope they take a route, seems obvious. But Im not sure if its politically viable to attack a ship that is less obviously aligned with the military. Say carrying something that is useful for the war but on a clearly civilian ship.

Werthead, on 05 August 2023 - 07:30 PM, said:

A recent uptick in Shahed interceptions is down to a UK-designed short-range interceptor, based on the Supacat chassis which can launch a swarm of ASRAAM missiles. This is a viable low-cost solution to taking out low-cost Iranian drones.

Good that they shoot down the drones but ASRAAM is at least 4x - 20x more expensive than Shahed so its still very very expensive. A lot better than wasting patriot of course (400x cost of Shahed) It probably also show some of the asymetry in responses to drones so far, the eventually solutions is probably not missiles but drones hunting drones Watched a video with an insightful commentary that drone warfare has some parallels to aircraft development during ww1. First observer, than armed with improvised weapons and then evolution.

This post has been edited by Chance: 05 August 2023 - 07:59 PM

[Mentalist]

a new wave of voenkor panic re: UAF doing probing landing attacks on L bank of Dnipro, across from Kherson.

We'll have to see if this amounts to anything.

On the Tokmak axis, we're apparently clearing the 1st trench line, trying to expand the breach. We'll see how this pans out.

[Werthead]

Some reports of a direct armoured clash on the outskirts of Urozhaine, with Russian tanks defeated. Unclear if they were destroyed or withdrew. Ukrainian tanks have been seen firing on Russian strongpoints in the outskirts of town. A direct Ukrainian infantry assault on the town centre was apparently repulsed, but these attacks seem to be designed to get Russian strongpoints to reveal themselves, to be zeroed by artillery. Ukrainian forces are also apparently attacking the town on three axes of advance, causing the overstretched defenders problems.

Russian Telegram is anticipating a withdrawal or even a surrender because the bulk of the troops holding the town are the Vostok battalion of the DPR, which is experienced but heavily degraded in combat ability by months of constant contact.

Some rumours that both Russia and Wagner have refused to pay Belarus for hosting its Wagner forces, and as a result several Wagner groups have been bussed back across the border. The reporting on that is iffy, though.

[Mentalist]

footage of UAF on the edge of Robotyne, which is supposedly 2 days old.


Need to wait and see how this develops over the weekend before celebrating too much, though.

A good hit on an orc optics factory on the outskirts of Moscow on Wed, though. A bunch of drones there every day now, causing some solid airport closures.

[Werthead]

Urozhaine maybe 30-40% under Ukrainian control. It's a pretty brutal assault, tanks hitting infantry positions and whenever strongpoints are identified, Ukrainian artillery just blows the entire building to pieces. Telegram reports of Russians screaming where is their counter-battery fire, unaware that the answer is "in smouldering pieces miles behind the lines."

Turkmenistan has reportedly cancelled all flights to Moscow and other countries are considering doing the same, citing recent explosions in the city.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 11 August 2023 - 05:44 PM, said:

Urozhaine maybe 30-40% under Ukrainian control. It's a pretty brutal assault, tanks hitting infantry positions and whenever strongpoints are identified, Ukrainian artillery just blows the entire building to pieces. Telegram reports of Russians screaming where is their counter-battery fire, unaware that the answer is "in smouldering pieces miles behind the lines."

Turkmenistan has reportedly cancelled all flights to Moscow and other countries are considering doing the same, citing recent explosions in the city.

There's been consistent "cotton flowerings" in the Greater Moscow Area for the past 4 days now, so that airspace certainly isn't safe. And if they get SAMs firing, then there's a very real non-zero chance of downing a civilian aircraft.

So it's a pretty sensible precaution

[Werthead]

ISW and several other sources now listing Robotyne itself as contested. Ukraine has been fighting around the town for a few weeks but are now pushing on the urban centre.

Robotyne and Urozhaine falling in close proximity to one another would be a significant Ukrainian victory, but they're still hunting for the big breakthrough. Or maybe there won't be one and it'll be the heavy grind all the way to Tokmak.

[Werthead]

Because of the increase in tempo in fighting in recent days, Russian losses are exceeding 500 a day, based on Ukrainian estimates and Russian communication intercepts. This is a remarkable figure to be losing in defence, though half that of Russia's heaviest losses in offensive action. Ukraine has not been disclosing is own losses on the offence, though.

A batch of new recruits from the Moscow Region arrived at the front and were immediately sent to the front line without training, resulting in a mini-revolt whilst they demanded better equipment and preparedness before fighting. A Russian Orthodox priest went to the LPR to assess the spiritual well-being of the troops there only to be told, "we need bodies, not priests," was handed a gun and told to go to the front. Meanwhile, Russian troops have been going through Hornostaivka, occupied Kherson Oblast, searching buildings for deserters. Numerous deserters have apparently holed up in abandoned buildings behind the front line whilst they try to find ways back to Russia.

Russian analysts and milbloggers on Telegrams believe that Ukraine has concentred enormous reserves of shells and ammunition in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and can maintain offensive efforts there for some time to come. They also believe that Urozhaine cannot be held by the current forces and they will have to withdraw imminently to avoid being surrounded. They also report increasing effectiveness from Ukrainian EW systems, disrupting communications in that area.

The Russian commander of the #1822 battalion from Samara city, Major Tomov, who disappeared 5 days ago, resurfaced alive today. Apparently he has defected to the Ukrainian side and provided them with major intelligence on Russian positions along the Dnipro.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 13 August 2023 - 10:12 PM

[Werthead]

The Russians launched a heavy assault on Andriivka, Donetsk Oblast but the Ukrainians saw the assault forming up and were able to hit it, destroying 2 T-90Ms. The rest of the attack was held off with apparent heavy Russian losses.

The Ukrainians have resumed their assault down the main "spine of towns" in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (starting at Velyka Novosilka in the far north), having taken Staromaiorske a few weeks ago. There's heavy bombing of Russian positions in Staromiynivka. The situation in Zavitne Bazannya, the settlement between the two, is unclear but heavy fighting is ongoing across the area.

It also looks like Urozhaine (not far to the east) has been abandoned by most (if not all) Russian forces, who are retreating south-west to those exact same settlements, which Ukraine may have already cut off behind them. Some indications of massive cluster bomb attacks on the Russian forces south of Urozhaine resulting in heavy losses. Unclear if the Russians can reach Staromiynivka or might have to Patton-wheel south to get back to the main lines (possibly involving going right through their own minefields).

Today might have been the worst day of the war for Russia for some months on the battlefield. We have to wait to see how the front has changed but it looks like that could be a reasonable bite out of it.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 14 August 2023 - 09:34 PM, said:

The Russians launched a heavy assault on Andriivka, Donetsk Oblast but the Ukrainians saw the assault forming up and were able to hit it, destroying 2 T-90Ms. The rest of the attack was held off with apparent heavy Russian losses.

The Ukrainians have resumed their assault down the main "spine of towns" in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (starting at Velyka Novosilka in the far north), having taken Staromaiorske a few weeks ago. There's heavy bombing of Russian positions in Staromiynivka. The situation in Zavitne Bazannya, the settlement between the two, is unclear but heavy fighting is ongoing across the area.

It also looks like Urozhaine (not far to the east) has been abandoned by most (if not all) Russian forces, who are retreating south-west to those exact same settlements, which Ukraine may have already cut off behind them. Some indications of massive cluster bomb attacks on the Russian forces south of Urozhaine resulting in heavy losses. Unclear if the Russians can reach Staromiynivka or might have to Patton-wheel south to get back to the main lines (possibly involving going right through their own minefields).

Today might have been the worst day of the war for Russia for some months on the battlefield. We have to wait to see how the front has changed but it looks like that could be a reasonable bite out of it.

The Vremivka Bulge is actually in the Donets'k Oblast. The last bunch of villages along a single road that runs parallel to the admin division b/w Donets'k and Zaporizhya, but on the Donets'k side.

If they manage to take Staromlynivka, they then have the option to abandon the road following the Mokri Yaly river, and instead move SW, to cut the new salient forming along the line Spirne-Remivka-Volodyne. To get a wider front for a push directly S towards Rozivka, with options either towards Berdyans'k or even Mariupol'-- as long as they can break through the one big trench line behind Lyubymivka.

Some ongoign activity in Robotyne, too. DeepState suggesting that both Kopani (WNW of Robotyne) and Dorozhnyanka (the last village N of Polohy) is getting some heat.

ISW is committing to this "UAF has a bridgehead across the Dnipro" news. We'll have to see if anything big comes of this.

[Werthead]

Ukraine's successes in the face of millions of mines might be down to them using infra-red cameras in mine clearance at night. The mines used by Russia absorb a ton of heat during the summer day and release it slowly at night, allowing Ukraine to spot them and in some cases eliminate them from afar. This technique is also being used in other parts of the world where there are massive minefields from wars decades ago still being cleared.

Romania is working with Ukraine to clear grain shipping through the Danube Delta, with ships able to use Romanian ports on the river to get their grain out as well as the Ukrainian river ports (some suggestion that maybe grain could be stored on the Romanian side, under NATO's protective umbrella, if a financial deal is worked out).

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Russians got richer last year even as the war in Ukraine raged on, while the US and Europe lost trillions of dollars, UBS reported.

Russia added $600 billion of total wealth [...] number of Russian millionaires also rose by about 56,000 [...] number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals — people worth over $50 million — jumped by nearly 4,500.

[...] the US lost more wealth than any other country last year, shedding $5.9 trillion, while North America and Europe combined got $10.9 trillion poorer [...]

Rising oil prices could be one factor behind the wealth increase

Russia Gets Richer Amid a Raging War, While the West Loses Trillions

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 August 2023 - 11:03 PM

[Cyphon]

That's a fairly partial picture to link yo this discussion.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cyphon, on 17 August 2023 - 04:18 PM, said:

That's a fairly partial picture to link yo this discussion.

But it seems to imply that continuing the war isn't wrecking the Russian economy as hoped... with existing sanctions. Though I'd love for that to be wrong.

A large part of the decline in US wealth came from the stock market's decline in 2022; it's been doing well in 2023 (until recently anyway) so much of that loss has hopefully been erased.

[Mentalist]

Reports of multiple Ka52s getting downs (3 in the last 3 days). Those are typically the orcs' last resort to address breakthroughs, so good things could be happening.
vids are being shown of UAF clearing houses in Klischiyivka, S of Bakhmut.
Some analysts are suggesting that the main thrust of our reserves are going to be committed towards Robotyne and the Tokmak axis. This worries me, b/c at the end of the day Tokmak is one of the bigger captured cities, and unless it can be encircled quickly following a breakthrough, this could end up being the stopping block for the summer-autumn campaign.

OC "South" is (again) asking for OPSEC silence regarding "certain actions being conducted on the L bank of the Dnipro river". So we wait.

[Werthead]

Azath Vitr (D, on 17 August 2023 - 05:45 PM, said:

But it seems to imply that continuing the war isn't wrecking the Russian economy as hoped... with existing sanctions. Though I'd love for that to be wrong.

A large part of the decline in US wealth came from the stock market's decline in 2022; it's been doing well in 2023 (until recently anyway) so much of that loss has hopefully been erased.

The ruble's value has collapsed rapidly in the last few days, down to below 1 dollar = 100 rubles. That's not unprecedented, with the ruble rapidly tumbling to 123 rubles to the dollar in the days after the invasion. However, the markets rallied quickly there once it became clear the shock to the Russian system could be absorbed. This time around it looks like Russia's problems are more systemic and related to the worldwide inflationary problems we've seen, in which case Russia is far behind the curve of other countries in dealing with that.

That is amplifying Russia's currency problems. It has not been able to pay all of its troops reliably for some months, and is rotating which units do and do not get paid, leading to discontent on the front (where a formation from Perm Krai publicly criticised Moscow for letting their families go hungry just today). They've also got major infrastructure problems in Dagestan, leading to massive rioting. Some 32 people killed in the last week, petrol stations being firebombed, public buildings being burned down because supplies of water and electricity to parts of the region have been intermittent for months and totally failed for the last week or so. Dagestan has a history of rebelling against Moscow, so that's not a great place for that kind of thing to be happening.

Is Russia going to collapse economically tomorrow? Probably not, but it is under a severe squeeze at the moment and the central bank in Moscow is trying all sorts of insane BS to deal with it which will probably not be very effective.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 August 2023 - 09:52 PM