[Cause]

I thought our offensive technology had gotten to the point where such wars would no longer be practical.

Thought at a push of a button every runway would be bombed, every base destroyed. Every warship and tank just obliterated by smart munitions.

[Werthead]

Quote

South Africa struggles to keep the lights on in peace time. If the power grid were under attack I cant help but feel the whole country would be in darkness. How has ukraine kept the lights on, the water flowing etc?

South Africa is a very special kind of total FUBAR which most countries have avoided (the only country in a worse state infrastructure-wise might be Haiti, possibly Venezuela), so I'm not sure the comparison entirely tracks.

But for how Ukraine has kept the lights on, on Day 1 of the invasion, following long-prepared contingency operations, Ukraine shut off its power interconnections with Russia and switched on power interconnections with Poland and Romania, allowing it to draw on European energy reserves. That completely blindsided Russia, who did not think they'd done that (or it was even possible). Without that, Ukraine would have been in worse shape. However, Ukraine also draws on nuclear power. Even with the one captured by Russia, most of their reactors are still in Ukrainian hands and have remained intact. Russia's precision weapons are also total BS, and their attempts to hit power connection systems have largely been inept.

Ukraine also stockpiled large amounts of spare parts to repair power, transportation and water systems before the war, and has deployed personnel to carry out repairs, sometimes ludicrously close to the front lines and sometimes under direct fire. More than a few of them have died in the process. The fact that Ukraine's train system has been running more regularly and with greater reliability than the UK's (and I heard even Germany's) in the same time period is mind-boggling.

I think the answer boils down to the same one for the entire war: "Ukraine was far, far more hardcore than anybody expected." Which given their history in dealing with Russia, should really have not been a surprise.

Quote

Thought at a push of a button every runway would be bombed, every base destroyed. Every warship and tank just obliterated by smart munitions.

I think people have gotten used to seeing the US and its allies fighting enemies who are about 20 (Iraq) to 50 (Afghanistan) years behind them technically, when that kind of approach works. Here, it isn't. Neither side had or has enough smart weapons to fight that way for any prolonged period (neither does the US or China, and both are ramping up production drastically because they've realised if they do go to war over Taiwan, they need a ton more missiles in reserve than they initially thought).

Ukraine is also MASSIVE and has a very large army, by anybody's standards bar only the US, Russia, China, the Koreas and India. Hitting every single target of civilian and military value in the entire country at the start of the war was flat-out impossible, Russia did not have anything close to the needed number of smart weapons. If they'd invaded Estonia, sure, you can try to do that, but not against Ukraine.

The other equaliser is air defences. Ukraine had a fairly robust air defence network at the start of the war, which is now several times stronger than it ever was, and it's far more effective against drones, smart munitions and hypersonic weapons than anybody expected.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Putin Narrowly Escapes Assassination Attempt as Russian Secret Service Thwarts Moscow Bridge Explosion

[...] claimed a barge was used to plant explosives underneath the bridge, presumably with the intention to cause great injury or death.

Putin Narrowly Escapes Assassination Attempt as Russian Secret Service Thwarts Moscow Bridge Explosion (msn.com)

If true (and not fabricated a pretext for a crackdown---as if they need more of one?), I hope they get him soon....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 01 July 2023 - 01:01 AM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 30 June 2023 - 11:54 PM, said:

Quote

South Africa struggles to keep the lights on in peace time. If the power grid were under attack I cant help but feel the whole country would be in darkness. How has ukraine kept the lights on, the water flowing etc?

South Africa is a very special kind of total FUBAR which most countries have avoided (the only country in a worse state infrastructure-wise might be Haiti, possibly Venezuela), so I'm not sure the comparison entirely tracks.

But for how Ukraine has kept the lights on, on Day 1 of the invasion, following long-prepared contingency operations, Ukraine shut off its power interconnections with Russia and switched on power interconnections with Poland and Romania, allowing it to draw on European energy reserves. That completely blindsided Russia, who did not think they'd done that (or it was even possible). Without that, Ukraine would have been in worse shape. However, Ukraine also draws on nuclear power. Even with the one captured by Russia, most of their reactors are still in Ukrainian hands and have remained intact. Russia's precision weapons are also total BS, and their attempts to hit power connection systems have largely been inept.

Ukraine also stockpiled large amounts of spare parts to repair power, transportation and water systems before the war, and has deployed personnel to carry out repairs, sometimes ludicrously close to the front lines and sometimes under direct fire. More than a few of them have died in the process. The fact that Ukraine's train system has been running more regularly and with greater reliability than the UK's (and I heard even Germany's) in the same time period is mind-boggling.

I think the answer boils down to the same one for the entire war: "Ukraine was far, far more hardcore than anybody expected." Which given their history in dealing with Russia, should really have not been a surprise.

Quote

Thought at a push of a button every runway would be bombed, every base destroyed. Every warship and tank just obliterated by smart munitions.

I think people have gotten used to seeing the US and its allies fighting enemies who are about 20 (Iraq) to 50 (Afghanistan) years behind them technically, when that kind of approach works. Here, it isn't. Neither side had or has enough smart weapons to fight that way for any prolonged period (neither does the US or China, and both are ramping up production drastically because they've realised if they do go to war over Taiwan, they need a ton more missiles in reserve than they initially thought).

Ukraine is also MASSIVE and has a very large army, by anybody's standards bar only the US, Russia, China, the Koreas and India. Hitting every single target of civilian and military value in the entire country at the start of the war was flat-out impossible, Russia did not have anything close to the needed number of smart weapons. If they'd invaded Estonia, sure, you can try to do that, but not against Ukraine.

The other equaliser is air defences. Ukraine had a fairly robust air defence network at the start of the war, which is now several times stronger than it ever was, and it's far more effective against drones, smart munitions and hypersonic weapons than anybody expected.

The power thing is actually really curious.

UA has been taking strides to move towards EU standards of the grid for years.

The week of the invasion, UA's power grid was undergoing a stress test synchronization with the EU grid. This was a pre-planned event that took a lot of prep and was supposed to last like 3 days, I think.

What ended up happening was that Ukrainian energy sector workers performed basically a miracle, addressing all serious concerns and completed the transition way ahead of schedule. Basically, a 3-day test synchronization turned into a permanent integration in response to the invasion.

The way Ukrainian power grid survived the massive missile barrages of Fall 2022 was by purchasing an astounding number of replacement infrastructure pieces such as transformers and substation equipment from virtually everywhere worldwide.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 30 June 2023 - 11:54 PM, said:

The other equaliser is air defences. Ukraine had a fairly robust air defence network at the start of the war, which is now several times stronger than it ever was, and it's far more effective against drones, smart munitions and hypersonic weapons than anybody expected.

Think this is one of the most vital differences between this war and most recent western ones. Both sides have better air defense than they have air forces. It basically takes the war back several decades in how it is fought as not even russia has enough long range missiles to really matter.

But both sides and especially the Ukrainians are doing incredible things with electronic warfare and drone operations. Electronic warfare in a way that was previously mostly a thought experiment of sci-fi writers is happening and drones are rapidly becoming one of the most serious threats to vehicles on the battlefield both as observers and munition delivery systems.

Another reason why it looks more like an old school war than an imagined war of the future, is that russia is devolving the average age of equipment steadily increasing, loosing more gear than you build is a bitch. We already have ww2 artillery, 60's tanks fighting along side modern drone operators which is all kinds of weird. It might also be a indicator that while artillery, tanks and fighting vehicles have improved over time they have improved incrementally and not radically. A 60-70's tank isn't as good as a modern one but neither is it entirely obsolete. A 40-50's artillery pieces might be worse than a modern one but not useless.

This post has been edited by Chance: 01 July 2023 - 07:21 AM

[Werthead]

Looks like the Ukrainians have resumed their heavy attacks on the front south of Mala Tokmachka. Their attack there a couple of weeks ago failed, resulting in the first significant losses of western-donated vehicles.

However, it appears that the Russians have pulled back from that sector, allowing Ukrainian recovery vehicles to pick up some of the lost vehicles. Three Bradleys were recovered in pretty good condition and a Ukrainian T-72.

Apparently the Russians retreated past the first defensive line in the area, and Ukrainian forces have followed them in, mounting a major assault at Robotyne. The 47th Mechanized Brigade was deployed to follow up on initial Ukrainian successes and have driven the line back along a wide swathe of the front. Ukraine seems to have recovered an area 1.5km deep and 6km wide. There is now a "continuous assault" in progress along that sector of the front, with the Ukrainians repeatedly hitting Russian forces and not letting up. Reports of a breakthrough are premature, but the Russians are taking heavy losses in that area. The defensive posture behind them as far as Tokmak is unclear; the Russians keep pulling troops out of the heavy trenchlines to hold much less defensible positions in front of them, which is weird. The Russian troops now seem to be fighting on the streets of Robotyne itself rather than in the pre-prepared defensive lines.

This is on the Orikhiv-Tokmak front, the most heavily-defended sector of the Russian line. If the Ukrainians mount a breakthrough here, that's very impressive.

In the meantime, the British MoD has indicated that Ukrainian units are stepping up their attacks south of the Dnipro. The situation in the area is confused, with Russian lines appearing porous and some Ukrainian spoiler units slipping through the lines to attack areas behind the lines. The Ukrainian goal seems to be moving towards the ruined Antonovskiy Bridge to secure the southern side and then clearing Russian forces in the area. Some indications of a river battle with Russia moving boats down the river to reinforce but being hit by Ukrainian submersible suicide drones.

There's also been some suggestion of Ukraine fielding drones to act as laser pointers, locking onto moving vehicles which can then be hit by HIMARS (HIMARS shells can change their bearing mid-flight based on dynamic GPS updates, within a certain window). Previously Ukrainian artillery spotting to target acquisition to firing was so fast the vehicles that had parked for just a few seconds could be hit and destroyed, but they needed to be stationary. Now they can be hit on the move at a normal driving pace, forcing them to either drive at top speed everywhere (not great for safety, fuel consumption or wear and tear) or risk being killed.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Jews should leave Russia 'before it's too late,' says former chief rabbi of Moscow

[...] they risk being scapegoated for the failure of Russia's "special military operation."

[...] Russia, like other countries, has a history of elites stoking antisemitism to "redirect the anger and discontent of the masses."

[...] The rabbi's exhortation came after the Russian Justice Ministry on Friday declared him a "foreign agent,"

Jews should leave Russia 'before it's too late,' says former chief rabbi of Moscow (msn.com)

Would Putin have the gall to blame the failure of his 'special operation' to 'de-Nazify' Ukraine on Jewish people?...

Of course he would....

Quote

estimates around a third of Jews living in Russia are currently “actively” expressing their opposition to the war; most “aren’t happy” with the situation, but are too scared to speak out. [...]

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave a taste of what could be to come, comparing [...] Zelenskyy to Adolf Hitler, who he said “also had Jewish blood.” Putin subsequently walked back on those comments, issuing a rare personal apology to Israeli Prime Minister [...] but Russia’s Jews were on notice.

“Due to the constant negative attitude toward us, hatred … we are used to being silent, adjusting to the current government, and [we] always keep a foreign passport at the ready,” [...] “You never know when you’ll have to run again,” [...] “We understand that none of us are truly protected.”


[...] anti-Jewish xenophobia could flare up at any moment if the Kremlin wants it to.

“In the 1980s and 1990s, the brutal anti-Semitism of politicians was a reaction to the social polarization of Russia,” [...] “In the 2000s, things got better economically so the level of anti-Semitism went down,” [...]

“It’s back to the 1990s,” [...] to a period when anti-Semitic conspiracy theories proliferated and far-right firebrand Vladimir Zhirinovsky spouted vitriol against Jews.

Russia’s Jews fear resurgent anti-Semitism amid Ukraine war – POLITICO

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 02 July 2023 - 04:43 PM, said:

Looks like the Ukrainians have resumed their heavy attacks on the front south of Mala Tokmachka. Their attack there a couple of weeks ago failed, resulting in the first significant losses of western-donated vehicles.

However, it appears that the Russians have pulled back from that sector, allowing Ukrainian recovery vehicles to pick up some of the lost vehicles. Three Bradleys were recovered in pretty good condition and a Ukrainian T-72.

Apparently the Russians retreated past the first defensive line in the area, and Ukrainian forces have followed them in, mounting a major assault at Robotyne. The 47th Mechanized Brigade was deployed to follow up on initial Ukrainian successes and have driven the line back along a wide swathe of the front. Ukraine seems to have recovered an area 1.5km deep and 6km wide. There is now a "continuous assault" in progress along that sector of the front, with the Ukrainians repeatedly hitting Russian forces and not letting up. Reports of a breakthrough are premature, but the Russians are taking heavy losses in that area. The defensive posture behind them as far as Tokmak is unclear; the Russians keep pulling troops out of the heavy trenchlines to hold much less defensible positions in front of them, which is weird. The Russian troops now seem to be fighting on the streets of Robotyne itself rather than in the pre-prepared defensive lines.

This is on the Orikhiv-Tokmak front, the most heavily-defended sector of the Russian line. If the Ukrainians mount a breakthrough here, that's very impressive.

In the meantime, the British MoD has indicated that Ukrainian units are stepping up their attacks south of the Dnipro. The situation in the area is confused, with Russian lines appearing porous and some Ukrainian spoiler units slipping through the lines to attack areas behind the lines. The Ukrainian goal seems to be moving towards the ruined Antonovskiy Bridge to secure the southern side and then clearing Russian forces in the area. Some indications of a river battle with Russia moving boats down the river to reinforce but being hit by Ukrainian submersible suicide drones.

There's also been some suggestion of Ukraine fielding drones to act as laser pointers, locking onto moving vehicles which can then be hit by HIMARS (HIMARS shells can change their bearing mid-flight based on dynamic GPS updates, within a certain window). Previously Ukrainian artillery spotting to target acquisition to firing was so fast the vehicles that had parked for just a few seconds could be hit and destroyed, but they needed to be stationary. Now they can be hit on the move at a normal driving pace, forcing them to either drive at top speed everywhere (not great for safety, fuel consumption or wear and tear) or risk being killed.

I find the push on Tokmak to be a bit dubious, since it's the lynchpin of their most fortified positions. But I'm not the one sitting in the HQ, so they probably know a lot more than me.

The situation across the Dnipro is mostly a fixing action. The Antonivsky Bridge didn't actually connect the 2 banks of the river. Instead, it connected the R bank with a large island - and from there it's about 2.5 km to the Konka river, which serves as a channel connecting the island to the L bank proper- and the city of Oleshky that's situated right on the river bank.

The UAF has been taking back their positions on various islands next to the L bank, but we haven't seen any grounded bridgehead on the L bank proper. Due to difficulties in supplying heavy equipment across the river, I wouldn't expect any thing more than fixing actions here until at least mid-to-late July. Weather permitting, by then the silt in the former Kakhovka reservouir will have hardened, and the much-narrower Dnipro (along with newly revealed sunken islands from the reservoir) will become much more favourable spot for bridging efforts.

Zelensky did a dumb thing saying UA would like to be able to show "big results" in time for the NATO Summit on the 11th; so now there's a self-imposed deadline to "meet Western expectations", which always worries me.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 03 July 2023 - 12:47 AM, said:

I find the push on Tokmak to be a bit dubious, since it's the lynchpin of their most fortified positions. But I'm not the one sitting in the HQ, so they probably know a lot more than me.

The situation across the Dnipro is mostly a fixing action. The Antonivsky Bridge didn't actually connect the 2 banks of the river. Instead, it connected the R bank with a large island - and from there it's about 2.5 km to the Konka river, which serves as a channel connecting the island to the L bank proper- and the city of Oleshky that's situated right on the river bank.

The UAF has been taking back their positions on various islands next to the L bank, but we haven't seen any grounded bridgehead on the L bank proper. Due to difficulties in supplying heavy equipment across the river, I wouldn't expect any thing more than fixing actions here until at least mid-to-late July. Weather permitting, by then the silt in the former Kakhovka reservouir will have hardened, and the much-narrower Dnipro (along with newly revealed sunken islands from the reservoir) will become much more favourable spot for bridging efforts.

Zelensky did a dumb thing saying UA would like to be able to show "big results" in time for the NATO Summit on the 11th; so now there's a self-imposed deadline to "meet Western expectations", which always worries me.

It looks to me like Ukraine is putting pressure on the Kherson, Tokmak and Bakhmut fronts simultaneously (whilst holding/defending against a limited Russian counter-counteroffensive near Lyman), and supporting the Russian partisans attacking towards Belgorod, which forces the Russians to split their efforts and their increasingly overstretched manpower, and where the weakest spot appears, Ukraine can hit that with everything they have and try to force a major breach. Ukrainian generals keep saying that having three massively-fortified defensive lines like Russia has established along much of that front means jack if Russia doesn't have enough troops to hold them (or because the Russian generals keep telling them to get out of the trenches to fight in front of them, which is deranged; some reports today that Russian troops were sent forwards out of their defences and then hit by one of their own suicide drones which had gotten confused).

[Werthead]

T-55s spotted on a train passing through Voronzeh on the way to Ukraine. The locals declaring they are "mammoth's crap" but all they have left.

Some reports that Russia has withdrawn from Klischiivka. If true, that means that Ukraine has retaken much of the southern arc around Bakhmut, and puts most of the city in Ukrainian artillery range.

Absolutely massive explosion in Donetsk City. The Ukrainians located a warehouse that was being used to store GRAD rocket ammunition for a large portion of the SE front and hit it.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 05 July 2023 - 07:52 PM, said:

Absolutely massive explosion in Donetsk City. The Ukrainians located a warehouse that was being used to store GRAD rocket ammunition for a large portion of the SE front and hit it.

Not frequently wowed by the real world but that explosion looked like apocalyptic. No clue if it is authentic but it did look crazy.

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This post has been edited by Chance: 05 July 2023 - 10:45 PM

[Werthead]

One interesting development in the last few weeks has been a serious reduction in the time it takes Ukraine to launch counter-battery strikes on identified artillery targets. There's been some reports of Ukraine using spotter drones to paint and hit moving Russian vehicles, using the GPS-directed GLMRS ability to change direction in mid-flight (although this limited based on velocity and where in the ascent/descent profile the projectile is). More common is them spotting a Russian vehicle trying to shoot and scoot before it shoots, and hitting it once it stops. They've got that reaction time down, in some cases, to seconds.

This is not only a major problem for Russia in losing the vehicle and crew, it's also causing some Russian personnel to say pull the other one, it's got bells on when they're ordered to deploy.

Meanwhile, the US is on the verge of releasing its cluster munition reserves to Ukraine. They've been decommissioning these reserves for years on end and will never use them again themselves, so there's no operational issue with releasing them to Ukraine, but there is a thorny ethical/moral issue in using them (and some other NATO members are much less keen). However, both the US and Ukraine (and, more privately, the likes of the UK) are onboard with the "we'll sort out the moral quandary later on" solution.

A single HIMARS-launched DPICM ("Steel Rain") delivery system could cover entire square kilometre grids with cluster bombs, throwing the Russian lines into turmoil. More problematically, also in areas where there is still heavy civilian traffic. But Ukraine seems to happy to deal with the cleanup after the existential threat is removed.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 06 July 2023 - 08:18 PM, said:

One interesting development in the last few weeks has been a serious reduction in the time it takes Ukraine to launch counter-battery strikes on identified artillery targets. There's been some reports of Ukraine using spotter drones to paint and hit moving Russian vehicles, using the GPS-directed GLMRS ability to change direction in mid-flight (although this limited based on velocity and where in the ascent/descent profile the projectile is). More common is them spotting a Russian vehicle trying to shoot and scoot before it shoots, and hitting it once it stops. They've got that reaction time down, in some cases, to seconds.

This is not only a major problem for Russia in losing the vehicle and crew, it's also causing some Russian personnel to say pull the other one, it's got bells on when they're ordered to deploy.

Meanwhile, the US is on the verge of releasing its cluster munition reserves to Ukraine. They've been decommissioning these reserves for years on end and will never use them again themselves, so there's no operational issue with releasing them to Ukraine, but there is a thorny ethical/moral issue in using them (and some other NATO members are much less keen). However, both the US and Ukraine (and, more privately, the likes of the UK) are onboard with the "we'll sort out the moral quandary later on" solution.

A single HIMARS-launched DPICM ("Steel Rain") delivery system could cover entire square kilometre grids with cluster bombs, throwing the Russian lines into turmoil. More problematically, also in areas where there is still heavy civilian traffic. But Ukraine seems to happy to deal with the cleanup after the existential threat is removed.

JDAM-ERs are confirmed by Ukrainian military media to be in use in Ukraine now. That makes the counter-battery fire more effective (and less expensive)


Cluster munition news are good. The real question is whether we will hear about ATACMs in Vilnius. Zelensky did confirm that he will attend the summit, so that means there should be some good news there. On top of Sweden getting accepted, since Turkey seems to have folded once the US said no F16s until that happens.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 07 July 2023 - 04:25 PM

[Werthead]

Interesting analysis that Russian artillery supplies are running into trouble. Russia had a titanic amount of artillery ammunition and several thousand pieces standing by for conflict at the start of the invasion, but the outlay of fire in several campaigns has made their stock dwindle with extreme rapidity. In particular, the artillery assaults using in the battles for Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Bakhmut seem to have expended the majority of Russia's war-ready stocks between them.

This has resulted in Russia dropping from its preferred 152mm ammunition to the 122mm family. The latter is no longer produced and Russia seems to have no way of easily restarting production, but they have switched to it whilst they are attempting to rebuild 152mm stocks (possibly for a further Russian offensive later in the year, although there are questions over whether that's a realistic prospect at present). The 122mm family is also shorter-ranged and much more vulnerable to counter-battery fire. This is even more true of the 240mm and 203mm "super" mortars which Russia made a fanfare of using, but was actually a sign of desperation: these batteries are ancient, ammo is relatively scarce and they take ages to set up, fire and teardown. Dozens of such mortars have been destroyed by Ukrainian fire, with little prospect for replenishment.

A bigger problem is Russia's internal barrel-replacement industry, which is poor, and their import options are limited, with North Korea, Iran and even China not really able to help out with that issue.

The deployment of Storm Shadow and other long-range systems has also allowed HIMARS to be used in the main thing it is excellent at, which is very rapid counter-battery fire, aided by superior radar systems. These have been allowing Ukraine to clean house along the front of Russian artillery. HIMARS is being used for this purpose and taking out small logistics networks, allowing larger logistics centres to be destroyed by Storm Shadow and other systems.

[Chance]

I think that article is on to something, the resource attrition especially for artillery on the russian side is untenable at least long time. I think the russians can defend with no modern tanks or fighting vehicles but not without artillery. Without those modern tanks and fighting vehicles they can probably not attack however...so they are **** regardless. Saw a recent comparison that Ukraine had recently overtaken Russia with active tanks in service and inching closer in other equipment. Considering the qualitative difference in what kind of tanks they are currently adding to their forces its looking dark for Russian tankers.

Werthead, on 07 July 2023 - 08:24 PM, said:

A bigger problem is Russia's internal barrel-replacement industry, which is poor, and their import options are limited, with North Korea, Iran and even China not really able to help out with that issue.

My guess would be if they can't do good barrels they will make bad barrels. If they break 4 times as quickly and explode now and then from improper quality, no one in the russian command will care. Especially if they expect guns to be taken out before they fire 10 000 rounds anyway.

This post has been edited by Chance: 08 July 2023 - 02:40 PM

[Werthead]

Chance, on 08 July 2023 - 02:33 PM, said:

I think that article is on to something, the resource attrition especially for artillery on the russian side is untenable at least long time. I think the russians can defend with no modern tanks or fighting vehicles but not without artillery. Without those modern tanks and fighting vehicles they can probably not attack however...so they are **** regardless. Saw a recent comparison that Ukraine had recently overtaken Russia with active tanks in service and inching closer in other equipment. Considering the qualitative difference in what kind of tanks they are currently adding to their forces its looking dark for Russian tankers.

To emphasise the point, the recent equipment losses include five Russian artillery systems in one day last week, and roughly five to six as many verified Russian artillery losses to comparable Ukrainian losses in the last few months (and 100% of Ukrainian artillery losses were older Soviet systems they're phasing out anyway).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 July 2023 - 06:53 PM

[Werthead]

Russia is not just losing artillery destroyed but also captured. Ukraine has been using captured TOS-01 thermobaric rocket systems against Russian positions outside Bakhmut. That system is terrifying because the explosions and fire is so extensive that it's impossible to escape if you're in the blast zone (for the same reason it can't be used in urban areas, at least not by Ukraine).

Erdogan playing an interesting game. He returned the Azov defenders, apparently over Russia's protests (despite rumours of there being a timeline in the original agreement that they could go home to Ukraine after a year, possibly because Russia believed the war would be over by now), and has approved-in-principle a post-war Ukraine joining NATO in a face-to-face with Zelensky. He has also indicated progress with Sweden's accession to NATO but hasn't fully signed off on it yet. Some suggestions he might have a meeting with Putin in a couple of weeks and he might use Swedish accession as a bargaining chip to try to help bring the war to a conclusion. Possibly playing both ends against the middle to Turkey's benefit (and as I said before, Erdogan might well walk away from this war as, by far, the most immediately strengthened party, especially in terms of regional influence).

ETA: One of the fastest Russian defeats in the conflict so far: a group of 12 vehicles mounted an assault around the northern flank of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade devastated the column with drone-spotted artillery fire, destroying eight vehicles before they could even engage the Ukrainian defenders directly.

ETA2: Turkey has dropped his opposition to Sweden joining NATO. The accession process will thus by carried out ASAP.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 10 July 2023 - 09:14 PM

[Chance]

Werthead, on 09 July 2023 - 11:46 AM, said:

ETA2: Turkey has dropped his opposition to Sweden joining NATO. The accession process will thus by carried out ASAP.

Until about say 2014 I was of the opinion that Sweden didn't really need a military, but since about then NATO has seemed the only solution one I didn't think would ever happen at least not until recently. This is a good day for european security and that small but non zero chance of putinistan doing something stupid to my country is now at least nearing zero.

This needs celebrations or something.

This post has been edited by Chance: 11 July 2023 - 11:50 AM

[Gorefest]

Werthead, on 09 July 2023 - 11:46 AM, said:

Erdogan playing an interesting game. He returned the Azov defenders, apparently over Russia's protests (despite rumours of there being a timeline in the original agreement that they could go home to Ukraine after a year, possibly because Russia believed the war would be over by now), and has approved-in-principle a post-war Ukraine joining NATO in a face-to-face with Zelensky.

The problem remains though that any promises over 'post-war' joining of NATO are pretty pointless. If anything, it incentivises Russia even more to keep the conflict going indefinitely. NATO will either have to agree to let Ukraine join while the war is still ongoing (and sooner rather than later now that Ukraine has the upper hand), or publically declare that Ukraine will not be allowed to join but will be classed as some sort of protected buffer zone. But offering to let them join once the war is finished will only spur on Russia to keep the status quo alive.

[Werthead]

Gorefest, on 11 July 2023 - 12:03 PM, said:

The problem remains though that any promises over 'post-war' joining of NATO are pretty pointless. If anything, it incentivises Russia even more to keep the conflict going indefinitely. NATO will either have to agree to let Ukraine join while the war is still ongoing (and sooner rather than later now that Ukraine has the upper hand), or publically declare that Ukraine will not be allowed to join but will be classed as some sort of protected buffer zone. But offering to let them join once the war is finished will only spur on Russia to keep the status quo alive.

Russia's ability to keep the status quo is looking increasingly sketchy. Morale has somehow plummeted further than before and Ukraine's current campaign of sniping artillery, air defences, armour concentrations and supply depots is proving highly effective. Last year Ukraine used HIMARS to destroy most of Russia's supply depots close to the front, causing a resupply logjam before really kicking off their offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. This year they're using Storm Shadow to destroy the replacement supply depots and loitering drones and mobile HIMARS fire to make mincemeat of individual supply vehicles. If they can overcome Russia's minefields and trenchlines in a reasonable timeframe, I'm not sure what Russia can do to stop them given their inventories are running dry (the videos of T-55s going past on train flatbeds with Russians mocking them for running out of more modern tanks are quite telling).

The latter point is not a small feat, though.