[Werthead]

Cause, on 02 November 2022 - 09:40 PM, said:

Any reliable intel on how much damage the fleet took from the drone attack?

It looks a minesweeper was hit and possibly destroyed, a missile destroyer was hit but seemed to shrug it off (possibly the same one the Ukrainians hit a few months ago which also took a pounding and ran off, but ultimately was able to return to duty). Some reports that some smaller vessels, like tugs, may have been taken out.

The Russians got on the social media posts and Telegram really fast and shut down people taking photos and video of the damage, so it's been hard to say what the full damage is. Mentalist might have his ear to the ground better than me, though.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 02 November 2022 - 09:45 PM, said:

Cause, on 02 November 2022 - 09:40 PM, said:

Any reliable intel on how much damage the fleet took from the drone attack?

It looks a minesweeper was hit and possibly destroyed, a missile destroyer was hit but seemed to shrug it off (possibly the same one the Ukrainians hit a few months ago which also took a pounding and ran off, but ultimately was able to return to duty). Some reports that some smaller vessels, like tugs, may have been taken out.

The Russians got on the social media posts and Telegram really fast and shut down people taking photos and video of the damage, so it's been hard to say what the full damage is. Mentalist might have his ear to the ground better than me, though.

The frigates are both berthed, and locals are saying they are intact.
But the webcams in Sevastopol remain off, and no one's shown a single pic of the port side of the Makarov (where the impact was supposed to be), so questions remain.

In any case, i haven't heard of any Kalibrs being launched from the Black Sea since Sat, so at least that's something--the orcs being sufficiently cowed to stay in their bays.

Next big hurdle will be when they start lobbing those Iranian ballistic missiles. Wish the US would hurry the F up with those NASAMS...

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 03 November 2022 - 02:38 PM

[Lady Bliss]

I really appreciate this thread. I feel like I get better information here than on the general news. It breaks my heart what the poor people from Ukraine and Russians being forced into this are enduring. I wish I could help.

This post has been edited by Lady Bliss: 03 November 2022 - 03:57 PM

[Mentalist]

Hrm.

It would appear the Right Bank withdrawal is approaching its end.

UAF might've finally pushed through to Snihurivka.



Also, the cokehead deputy-gauleirter of Kherson Oblast', Kirill Stremousov appears yo have died in a car accident, driving towards Crimea again. Welp.


EDIT: and they've made it official. It's the correct military move, but the political ramifications could be insane.

Some people are expecting a total rout during the withdrawal. I'm feeling less optimistic about this.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 09 November 2022 - 03:52 PM

[Mentalist]

Wow, it's happening.

Snihurivka, Kyselivka, Stanislav... The strongholds to the N and W of Kherson have been abandoned.
Progress from the NE towards kakhovka via Beryslav is a bit slower (since that's their one semi-intact bridge, I'm expecting them to try to hold on to it for dear life), but also steady.

I'm guessing by the end of the week the R bank will be cleared. At which point, the race to regroup towards Zaporizhya will begin. UAF will be at a temporary disadvantage as they'll need to shuffle its main troops from Kherson about 300-350 km towards orikhiv and Hulyaipole, while crossing the Dnipro at Zaporizhya. Or if they need to go to the bridges in Dnipro, that's an extra 70 km detour each way.

Meanwhile, the orcs from the L bank need only 200 km to get from Kakhovka to Tokmak and Polohy

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 10 November 2022 - 06:43 PM

[Werthead]

I'm not sure if the Russians will be in much shape to do anything. Footage this morning of a logjam at a river crossing near the Dnipro which was zeroed by heavy Ukrainian artillery, rockets and missiles. Russian Telegram reports going berserk, reporting 4,000+ casualties (this early on, that might be a guess more than anything).

Also lots of reports of Russian forces abandoning heavy gear, artillery and tanks as they go, and blowing up their own ammo dumps as they can't transport ammunition out in quantities and at speed.

This morning the US also backfilled 100,000 artillery shells to South Korea, in return for a shipment they've sent to Ukraine.

ETA: Ukrainian flags going up over downtown Kherson.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 November 2022 - 02:50 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 11 November 2022 - 12:39 PM, said:

I'm not sure if the Russians will be in much shape to do anything. Footage this morning of a logjam at a river crossing near the Dnipro which was zeroed by heavy Ukrainian artillery, rockets and missiles. Russian Telegram reports going berserk, reporting 4,000+ casualties (this early on, that might be a guess more than anything).

Also lots of reports of Russian forces abandoning heavy gear, artillery and tanks as they go, and blowing up their own ammo dumps as they can't transport ammunition out in quantities and at speed.

This morning the US also backfilled 100,000 artillery shells to South Korea, in return for a shipment they've sent to Ukraine.

We need actual footage from Antonivka and Kozats'ke (the sites of the 2 crossings) before we can ascertain the damage done during this "Dumbkirk".

GUR is saying they abandoned about 10k on the R bank and told them to blend in with the locals and fend for themselves. I'm finding that dubious, but we'll see what happens in the next few days, I suppose. If there's even a few thousand orcs starnded on the wrong side of the river (now that both bridges are blown), then the surrender hotline should be really busy.

I'm obviously hoping for serious damage, but keeping my expectations tempered, b/c the orcs have been fairly decent at retreating so far.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 11 November 2022 - 02:54 PM, said:

We need actual footage from Antonivka and Kozats'ke (the sites of the 2 crossings) before we can ascertain the damage done during this "Dumbkirk".

GUR is saying they abandoned about 10k on the R bank and told them to blend in with the locals and fend for themselves. I'm finding that dubious, but we'll see what happens in the next few days, I suppose. If there's even a few thousand orcs starnded on the wrong side of the river (now that both bridges are blown), then the surrender hotline should be really busy.

I'm obviously hoping for serious damage, but keeping my expectations tempered, b/c the orcs have been fairly decent at retreating so far.

I'd be interested in seeing how they have managed to withdraw. Pulling out men and vehicles is one thing, but very heavy machinery and tons of ammo and missiles whilst you're under artillery bombardment is another. I'm seeing some suggestions the withdrawal was supposed to happen over a longer time period and a lot of the Russian units said F that and ran as soon as they could, ditching everything they couldn't carry with them. I suspect many washing machines will be recovered from the muddy banks of the Dnipro.

I'm hoping that after the war someone will put a plaque or something on the wall of Kherson TechnoHouse to commemorate the victory.

[Werthead]

Alexander Dugin, whose crappy mid-1990s book on how Russia should conquer Europe was hugely influential on Putin, has called for Putin to be assassinated. This is like Marx showing up and suggesting someone should shoot Lenin dead.

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 12 November 2022 - 11:52 AM, said:

Alexander Dugin, whose crappy mid-1990s book on how Russia should conquer Europe was hugely influential on Putin, has called for Putin to be assassinated. This is like Marx showing up and suggesting someone should shoot Lenin dead.

Yeah but it's probably not from some sort of philosophical differences or betrayal, more like "You have failed me for the last time, Number Two ..." *drops him into piranhas*

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 12 November 2022 - 11:52 AM, said:

Alexander Dugin, whose crappy mid-1990s book on how Russia should conquer Europe was hugely influential on Putin, has called for Putin to be assassinated. This is like Marx showing up and suggesting someone should shoot Lenin dead.

Less of an assassination, more of a public execution.

The Tsar has the ultimate power over Russians, in excahnge for the ultimate responsibility to defend Russia.Since he is now failing to defend it (with Kherson having become Russia, and then lost to Ukraine), he ought to meet the same fate as "rain kings"- ancient shamans who could do anything to the tribe in exchange for "summoning rain"- but when he'd fail in making rain happen, then the tribe would usually disembowel him and pick a new king.

That's the gist of Dugin's post.

The Ruscist NOD (National Liberation Movement) held a march in Moscow today, calling for the nuking of Washington.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 12 November 2022 - 05:52 PM

[Chance]

Tsundoku, on 12 November 2022 - 12:34 PM, said:

Alexander Dugin, whose crappy mid-1990s book on how Russia should conquer Europe was hugely influential on Putin, has called for Putin to be assassinated. This is like Marx showing up and suggesting someone should shoot Lenin dead.

Feels like an elaborate way to end up falling out of a window...as soon as Putin hears about it.

Mentalist, on 12 November 2022 - 05:51 PM, said:

The Ruscist NOD (National Liberation Movement) held a march in Moscow today, calling for the nuking of Washington.

Well if they want to reduce the russian population to a few thousand that does sound like a good idea

By the way has anyone told them that a Liberation movement has to kind of be occupied or something to have a reason to exist...something Russia hasn't really been having much of since 1944?

This post has been edited by Chance: 12 November 2022 - 07:40 PM

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 12 November 2022 - 05:51 PM, said:

Less of an assassination, more of a public execution.

The Tsar has the ultimate power over Russians, in excahnge for the ultimate responsibility to defend Russia.Since he is now failing to defend it (with Kherson having become Russia, and then lost to Ukraine), he ought to meet the same fate as "rain kings"- ancient shamans who could do anything to the tribe in exchange for "summoning rain"- but when he'd fail in making rain happen, then the tribe would usually disembowel him and pick a new king.

That's the gist of Dugin's post.

Yeah, that's similar to the Fisher King legend in French legend (co-opted by the English for the legend of Arthur).

Reportedly Ukrainian forces have landed on the Kinburn Peninsula south of Mykolaiv. If they can open up a secure supply route over the peninsula they might just be able to outflank the entire Russian defensive line along the Dnipro, although I'm wondering if that is logistically tenable. Might be a good way of pinning down Russian forces east of the Dnipro and preventing them from reinforcing the NE.

[Werthead]

Apparently complete chaos in the Russian lines amidst reports that 5-6 villages and a town south-east of the Dnipro have fallen to the Ukrainians. Absolutely no idea how the Ukrainians crossed the river, or even if they did and this is partisan activity/some kind of spontaneous uprising.

This bears close watching.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 14 November 2022 - 07:11 PM, said:

Apparently complete chaos in the Russian lines amidst reports that 5-6 villages and a town south-east of the Dnipro have fallen to the Ukrainians. Absolutely no idea how the Ukrainians crossed the river, or even if they did and this is partisan activity/some kind of spontaneous uprising.

This bears close watching.

Too many rumours. Apparently, UAF arty also forced the orcs out of the towns of Oleshky and Hola Prystan' on the L bank across from Kherson and the islands in the Dnipro river delta, and now SOF units are already moving in.

Also, some buzz about a breakthrough just S of Svatove- if true, would mean UAF broke the defensive line Kreminna-Svatove and crossed the Krasna river-- meaning that frontline will start collapsing soon-ish.

But way too much speculation. As usual, give it 2-3 days to sort out what, if anything, is true.

[Werthead]

It does look like Ukrainian forces have reached the Nova Kakhovka dam, though some people online got excited and thought they meant the town (other side of the river).

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 14 November 2022 - 10:52 PM, said:

It does look like Ukrainian forces have reached the Nova Kakhovka dam, though some people online got excited and thought they meant the town (other side of the river).

Some chatter about big Left Bank gains.
Given the prior pattern, we'll have an announcement (IF anything is happening) in 2-4 days

[Werthead]

Part of the lack of clarity might be down to half of the accounts covering the war being instead bamboozled by the Russian soldiers stealing a raccoon from Kherson Zoo for no apparent reason.

I think America might have several raccoons it can send to replace the stolen animal after the war but...that's extremely odd.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 14 November 2022 - 11:44 PM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 14 November 2022 - 11:43 PM, said:

Part of the lack of clarity might be down to half of the accounts covering the war being instead bamboozled by the Russian soldiers stealing a raccoon from Kherson Zoo for no apparent reason.

I think America might have several raccoons it can send to replace the stolen animal after the war but...that's extremely odd.

It's another meme in the making. Now UAF is blitzing Crimea to get the stolen Kherson Zoo animals (the racoon foremost) back.

One of the Russian voenkors wrote about the retreat: "the only good news is that one of my friends stole a racoon from the zoo"

Since the trash panda isn't native to Europe, it's typically seen as a cute, exotic animal. There's a Soviet cartoon about a baby racoon mastering his fear of his reflection in the pond;
Additionally, a few racoon gifs were popularized by censor.net forums, basically being synonymous with any good news.

So it's a bewilderment, followed by anger whenever Ukrainians hear about a stolen animal. Just another reason to accuse the orcs of being savages and stealing everything they can carry and destroying whatever they can't steal. They took all the ambulances, fire trucks, trolleybused, and even a children's train from Kherson. They pillaged the archives, the museums, and even exhumed Potemkin's ashes.
And they also stole the animals from the zoo. And that's something that's a lot easier to get everyone to emphasise with.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 15 November 2022 - 12:22 AM

[Werthead]

A Russian missile has overflown Ukrainian territory and detonated in Poland, killing 2 people. Poland is calling an emergency security meeting, NATO is on alert.

This is one of the scenarios that has been discussed ad infinitum since the war started, as long as it wasn't a direct attack I don't think an immediate Article 5 retaliation is on the cards, but I suspect a lot of aid and things that had been blocked for Ukraine will now start rolling forwards.