[Gnaw]

It is Day 9. 10 hours and 56 minutes remaining
7 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, Gait, Galain, Korbas, Okaros, Trake

4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Okaros ( Korbas, Trake )
1 Vote for Trake ( Gait )
1 Vote for Gait ( Alkend )

Players not voted: Barghast, Galain, Okaros

[Barghast]

welp, the timeout will be when I sleep. Not good.

[Okaros]

Galain, on 12 August 2013 - 06:37 PM, said:

Okaros, on 12 August 2013 - 05:03 PM, said:

Barghast, on 12 August 2013 - 04:23 PM, said:

Okaros, who would you vote for?

Galain Gait or Trake. Trying to narrow it down further in my spare time.

Do you have any basis for those names or are you just throwing them out? I'll be back properly in 3 hours, long tiring weekend was good.

I think everyone else is inno.



Catching up now.

[Okaros]

Galain, on 12 August 2013 - 10:24 PM, said:

Korbas, on 11 August 2013 - 11:52 AM, said:

I now have 5 pages of notes, all beautifully colour-coordinated. Plus many many thoughts.

First off, I believe that both Alkend and Barghast are town. Both their reveals have panned out, and been, at least in part, corroborated by other sources.

From what we have seen of the night kills, I personally think it most likely that we had two pairs of killers, with a symp that knew them all. It explains the dual kill on night two, it explains why Mockra was killed, it explains why this game is still going, it works with the theory that killers can only target one castle each, and it fits with the number of players. The only thing I can't figure out is how it fits in with the guards.

I think Okaros is one general. I think Gait is the symp. I can't tell who out of Trake and Galain is the other killer.

Reasonings for all of the above incoming.

How does it explain the Mockra kill any more than a lieutenant getting handed the generals baton when a general is lynched?

I'll simplify it - my location can be verified by our revealed Guards action. Given we've established killers are possibly not paired and that we have at least a 3rd killer out there who can potentially hit targets in both castles I'm not worried I'll be targeted by a NA when there's a juicy Guard for the taking, so you know what, I'm in Edo. Now our Guard needs to decide if he wants to verify my location or if he wants to guard a potential killer - i.e. someone who isn't me.

Galain, on 12 August 2013 - 10:25 PM, said:

Okaros, on 12 August 2013 - 02:55 PM, said:

Korbas, I don't think your two-pairs-of-killers theory is right, because AFAWK Barghast was able to prevent NKs before we got any scum CFs, and if the killers are paired a single guard shouldn't stop them.

And for what it's worth, I do not see the castles theory as gospel yet.

The castles affect the Guard action working or not as has previously been stated on thread, acting as a limited find for location. So we know for sure it affects some town at least, the pertinent question is what effect it has on scum.

Something I've not noticed speculation on - our last general died from a NA, do people think a big oopsie from scum or has someone (i.e. EM) been telling porkies about being a town general? Were it town then they've shot their load so I have no qualms about speculating on that front.

What, since when? AFAIR, we haven't had any confirmation that NAs only work on people of/around the same castle, it's just a theory. And whether or not that were true, it still wouldn't explain how a single guard could guard a pair of killers when a pair is usually either immune until one of them dies, or else they have to pick who performs the action and would have changed it up after failing to get a kill.

[Okaros]

Ugh, re-read through Gait, Galain and Trake's posts, looking for if/when they ever pointed fingers at our scum CFs.

Gait, on 07 August 2013 - 07:23 AM, said:

Galain, on 07 August 2013 - 07:06 AM, said:

Korbas, on 07 August 2013 - 06:08 AM, said:

Kinda sad when dropping a vote before you leave is considered scummy.

In saying that, your post has brought up an interesting point about Galain. Being consistently on the train of every lynch target screams of not making waves, not disagreeing, following the pack so as not to stand out. In any other game I'd lay a vote on him as soon as day started. However, in this game, we've had such dismal voting behaviour that Galain's actions could be explained as just needing to get a lynch. I'll have to go back and look at the votes to see for myself.

Well also take a look at Tellan too, who has been on more than me. Yes, sad that actually being semi-active is seen as scum, but sod logic eh? Whoever did the count of votes and that summary have just PI'd themselves to me FWIW by actually you know, looking at me rather than blissfully ignoring me or following my lead like others have. Anyone else considered that the reason nights are timing out is because our other alt beginning with an A whose name I can't check at the moment due to phone is one of our killers? Kinda explains PS being reluctant to mod-kill them if there's only one scum general and lets face it, who can even recall their last post, it's Wednesday, modkill is overdue. And shit, you folks are idiots, following me on a lynch when I say I have no idea even why I'm voting for them? Just getting this out before NA results come in in case I'm dead, which after that lynch I deserve. Now taking the matchsticks out from my eyes and back in a few hours hopefully.

Frankly, imnsho a mod-kill is a mod-kill even if it is on the central lynch-pin player (like Tyrant Steve). Maybe they asked for an extension and it was privately granted, but 48 hours is quite a bit (says the guy absent for 72 over friday + the weekend). I guess we're caught in a vicious circle here: we have no targets, no-one knows who to look at, no-one sticks their neck out, we have no targets. Anyone offering anything is better than nothing so people jump on.

Right now (late last day phase + night phase) we have:

Barghast - 2/1/3 - taking a look at Eloth and Galain
Galain - 2/0/4 - suggested by Barghast and Korbas
Alkend - 0/3/3 - still alive and VPI.
Korbas - 1/2/3 - accused by Mockra
Tellan - 1/0/5 - suggested by Galain
Trake - 2/1/3 - relatively scolding of others' performance but somewhat taking a back seat.<
Mockra - 2/2/2 - backed off from by Trake
Gait - 2/2/2 - clearly innocent (and not pressured at all so far)
Eloth - 3/1/2 - had a spat with Jalan, on Barghast's watch list
Okaros - 3/2/1 - making list of voters, "cleared" by Galain
Anthras - 5/0/1 - on borrowed time with an extended absence.



If I had to pick a scum pair based on these limited night time interactions, right now it would be Trake and Mockra, with Trake making a weak case on him, then backing of, making himself look busy and Mockra more inno.

EDITED to get rid of all the <break&color stuff.

Gait, on 08 August 2013 - 08:43 PM, said:

There's someone seriously overestimating the game with a reveal like that.
I am not happy by how Alkend has been changing their role and I do question how PB knew Alkend then, but Takeda spy with re-direct and a find? Honestly?

vote Tellan

One revamped case from me where he fuddles it with 2 names, and then voting on a terrible reveal. Not much here.

Galain, on 09 August 2013 - 12:35 AM, said:

Trake, on 09 August 2013 - 12:28 AM, said:

Korbas, on 09 August 2013 - 12:24 AM, said:

Trake, on 08 August 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:

In fact, I'd still be more inclined to lynch Gait than either Korbas or Tellan because I'm 1000% convinced of his scumminess while the other 2 are stuck in he-said-she-said limbo.

This perspective is problematic for me. If we lynch Gait today, that leaves us in exactly the same position tomorrow. You're still going to have to decide which of the two of us is scummier.

Yes, but ideally one of you will say something soonish to give me an epiphany.

Or, we could just, you know, lynch Tellan, check the CF, wait for the Arai guard to reveal? There have been no Arai NKs since Night 2 and all...

Galain, on 08 August 2013 - 09:31 PM, said:

Well this is an interesting development. Seems people like to wait for me to head out before the action starts. Barghasts reveal sounds genuine and I had wondered what other roles we had hidden away, this is plausible. Tellan less so. Pretty much his only claim worth considering is that he balances team numbers. I don't buy it. Coupled with pulling a name from a scene, something I haven't noticed a correlation with for any of our dead and the scenes, I dislike this reveal. I'm not going to speculate on mechanics as that really isn't my forte.

Mockra needs to get one here, that mention of the spy

Mockra, on 07 August 2013 - 07:33 PM, said:

Barghast, on 07 August 2013 - 06:50 PM, said:

Mockra, on 07 August 2013 - 06:40 PM, said:

Barghast, on 06 August 2013 - 08:13 PM, said:

oh shit, just realized Gait is even playing. This means will deffo need to take a look at him when home.

Barghast, Gait, and Trake are up to something. I just can't decide if I should have faith in them, or realize they're scum. I've never seen anything that appears more staged than the interactions between Barghast and Gait today.

Barghast calls out Trake and I as scum partners, then makes his biggest case against Tellan. Gait and Barghast are voting together. You three have played fairly flawlessly this game, until the last 24 hours. It may not even matter at this point, as it might be too late and you guys are just having fun, but the sudden change in playstyles of faking suspicions about each other, then totally doing 180s is extreme and obvious. The play today is staged.

VOTE BARGHAST

I am really busy at work, and may not be back for a while. I apologize.

wtf? when did I call Trake scum?

teh furthest i've ever said about Trake was that he played like me, so I had no real read on him,

Yeah, yeah. I'm busy and I'm not suppose to be online from this desk. Funny you mention that comment about you and Trake being similar, because I didn't have time to dig it up, and my notes are at home, but you posted something like 'me and Trake post the same, and this means...nothing,' or something close. I have it down as you signalling Trake. Plus all the posts where you signal the others with the phrase 'I wiki look at player X', usually made close to the end of day timeout. I believe you're using it to signal with either Trake, or Gait, or both. Now move on to the part of your plan that the Takeda spy overheard where you plan to claim healer, or finder. One of them . Mentioned encoding it in one of your posts maybe. Or was that Gait as well. You're both so damned interchangeable. One of them is the others symp. I'll stay with Barghast, but I'd vote Gait as well. They're both in it together.

Ask Alkend what he thinks . If he's who I think he is.

as you can see that is actually in conversation with Barghast. I'm thinking this may not be as clear cut as some people think. Triad of killers, sacrificing one in order to VPI/CI the others?

Same dice. One weak poke and not believing the crappy reveal.



Also possibly an early defence of Mockra:

Galain, on 07 August 2013 - 09:10 AM, said:

Trake, on 07 August 2013 - 12:10 AM, said:

Wow. You all actually had a semi-productive day. You have pleased this blackhearted old motherfucker. I would not have voted Jalan, I know it was another skin of the teeth day but after Rash's modkill for playing against his team I think it may have been better to leave Jal alone and actually think about who was likely scum. I have to call out Mockra for pushing Jal to self hammer at the end there. There was no benefit to us in that lynch. According to the CF he was town, most of the thread seemed to think he was town and reading up I certainly would have agreed that I thought he was town as well. And yet Mockra initiates the final push for his neck and then bitches at him to selfie. I am firmly convinced that Mockra is scum and will be voting for him in the morning.

Err... just like I did with was it Cast? so I can't really comment on this! Is this your basis for Mockra or are you going off more?

Trake, on 07 August 2013 - 12:10 AM, said:

Wow. You all actually had a semi-productive day. You have pleased this blackhearted old motherfucker. I would not have voted Jalan, I know it was another skin of the teeth day but after Rash's modkill for playing against his team I think it may have been better to leave Jal alone and actually think about who was likely scum. I have to call out Mockra for pushing Jal to self hammer at the end there. There was no benefit to us in that lynch. According to the CF he was town, most of the thread seemed to think he was town and reading up I certainly would have agreed that I thought he was town as well. And yet Mockra initiates the final push for his neck and then bitches at him to selfie. I am firmly convinced that Mockra is scum and will be voting for him in the morning.

As a side note, based on the posts Rash made, I would have to conclude that he was in fact the Edo general and that he was killed for this comment:

Rashan, on 06 August 2013 - 04:21 PM, said:

I am not going to request a mod-kill. Because well, fuck you all. I'd prefer town lose this game.( and any other game played this shitty)

In conjunction with the rule that you may not play in a fashion that is a detriment to your own team.

Trake, on 07 August 2013 - 09:52 PM, said:

Ok, all caught up now. I had to reread both pages 3 times because of the Barghast/Tellan coloured replies and the fact that I keep mixing them and Gait up because of all the green in their avatars but I think I'm fully up to speed now. My scumdar for a couple days now has been pinging in the direction of Gait, Mockra, Eloth and Korbas. These are my reasons.

Gait - All the PIing is scummy as fuck. There's nothing I really have to add to ?Tellan's? case from earlier, he did a good job at summarizing the sketchy shit, I just want to acknowledge that I've noticed the same behaviour and came to the same conclusion as Tellan. Said behaviour is possibly sympy, as a number of you green mofos have said, but it could be a scum trying to seem as sympy as possible to prey on our lack of a desire to lynch a symp.

Mockra - I called him out earlier and, as much as I hate to shit on the RL defense after using it so much myself, I find it super hard to reconcile the immediate boost in post count that my earlier case on him produced.

Eloth and Korbas - Both have posted just enough that I remember them as people that have been posting. I'll be rereading both after I finish this post and forming a concrete opinion on both. Eloth in particular has done a good job of being confrontational today but as Bargh pointed out he's inconsistent as fuck by simple virtue of suddenly becoming confrontational. Especially after that continuous lurking of the previous week.

Now, Eloth and Korbas are currently just gut feelings. They will get their writeups shortly, along with a fresh one on Mockra. Gait and Mockra, however, are both people that I've had a bad feeling about for some time and that have backed up that bad feeling with their play. And so, since I think Gait is the more likely killer of my top 2 suspects I will

vote Gait

Whereas Trake here pushed pretty strongly against Mockra.


---


So, that narrows it down to Gait or Galain for me, and of the two I get more gut scum feels from Galain. Gait is just too spazzy it's hard to believe he'd be non-symp scum (I'm going to eat those words aren't I...?)

Vote Galain

[Okaros]

Unfortunately, I will still be asleep when day times out. I like my vote where it is and wouldn't move it to anyone else but Gait, which I gather most people think is a symp at best anyways.

[Korbas]

The problem I have with your argument, Okaros, is the timing of both your cases. They were both weak, which says to me that you were creating them in a rush, right at the time that Tellan turned up on the radar.

[Galain]

Okaros, on 13 August 2013 - 02:28 AM, said:

What, since when? AFAIR, we haven't had any confirmation that NAs only work on people of/around the same castle, it's just a theory. And whether or not that were true, it still wouldn't explain how a single guard could guard a pair of killers when a pair is usually either immune until one of them dies, or else they have to pick who performs the action and would have changed it up after failing to get a kill.

Town NAs we have indeed had confirmation of:

Barghast, on 08 August 2013 - 05:36 PM, said:

Fuck it. I think this is D-day. congrats, scum if you've been withholding. You've gotten me to blink first.

I am Captain Nagao Tamemasa. After my commanding officer came down with a mortal case of suicidal stupid, I believe i'm the CO of Edo castle.

I am also a guard. my guard also functions as a limited find, because I am told whether or not I successfully targeted my target (no word on whether the guard actually worked though, obv). I take this as a lkimited find, b/c it helps me to identify who's around Edo (since it would make no sense for me to be able to guard people in Arai).

Night 1 I guarded Alkend, b/c he escaped a lynch. I was told I failed, and next day he revealed to be in Arai

Night 2 I guarded Rashan. I successfully targetted him, but there were 2 deaths that night. since then I've been hinting thhat I think Rash is inno.

After night 3 onwards I've been guarding Tellan. Since then we've had no NKs in Edo except for Kalse kill (claimed by Rash)

So here it is. I got nothing else to play. if scum have been fucking with us, good job. but 4 nights in a row seems a longshot.

so.

vote Tellan

Weak case is weak. We have a couple of hours yet I think and I'll be around for it all.

Vote Okaros

[Gait]

I could switch to make a lynch possible.

As for the mechanic... no-one so far claimed to kill Mockra, so I presume it wasn't a town vig. Considering how low on killing power scum has been so far, and with the presence of two roled/ PIed townies in Alkend and Barghast, I don't think a scum-on-scum kill was likely. Nor was Mockra dead in the scene: he retreated. What if his disappearance in a night scene was actually a mechanic and tied to the first scum lynch in the game, or maybe the specific lynch of Tellan?

EDIT: deleted an unfinished sentence.

This post has been edited by Gait: 13 August 2013 - 10:09 AM

[Trake]

There's 40ish minutes left. Is anyone still around?

[Korbas]

Gait, I think you're making this too complicated. This is only TDMI 3, and I've never seen a mechanic that ties one person's death to another's lynching. Admittedly, I haven't played as many games as some others, but I'm not a newbie. IIRC, that character appeared in other Sengoku games, and each time he is killed the character 'retreats', presumably because Shin needs him for other games, or it is just nice flavour, a recurring theme.

I suspect he was NKed, presumably because he was running around hinting that he had a major role, and generally spouting off about supposed spies.

[Korbas]

I'm around, but I'm already voting Okaros. Trake, if you weren't voting Okaros who would you vote for?

[Trake]

Korbas, on 13 August 2013 - 10:46 AM, said:

I'm around, but I'm already voting Okaros. Trake, if you weren't voting Okaros who would you vote for?

Gait, then Galain.

[Gait]

Remove vote

[Gait]

I can hammer Okaros.
For a lynch on me, we need 3 more votes.
For a lynch on Galain, as Trake doesn't mind voting him, we need 4 more votes.

For the record, I was not aware of this guy retreating rather than dying permanently in every game so far.

[Trake]

Gait, on 13 August 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

I can hammer Okaros.
For a lynch on me, we need 3 more votes.
For a lynch on Galain, as Trake doesn't mind voting him, we need 4 more votes.

For the record, I was not aware of this guy retreating rather than dying permanently in every game so far.

I still think Okaros has the most merit for a lynch today.

[Gait]

Vote Okaros.

[Galain]

Gait, on 13 August 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

I can hammer Okaros.
For a lynch on me, we need 3 more votes.
For a lynch on Galain, as Trake doesn't mind voting him, we need 4 more votes.

For the record, I was not aware of this guy retreating rather than dying permanently in every game so far.

Anyone who features in history beyond the current scene retreats/is called away rather than dying, saves incorporating resurrection into Japanese history.

Your call on hammering Okaros, would clear you of being his symp if he's a general but it'd probably also end the game. I'm willing in theory to vote myself if people want to swing it my way, but you know, I might not actually given how low the numbers are getting.

[Korbas]

Welp, guess we wait and see now.

[Korbas]

Looking back, that character specifically does not retreat, although he has been mentioned in scenes from the other games. There are other characters that have retreated though, and their deaths were the same as anyone else's.