Alrighty, case response time!
Korbas, on 11 August 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:
Okaros has played a fairly flawless game, but there are a few things that really stand out.
I've been fairly off-the-radar from day 4 onwards, but that's not the same as playing flawlessly. Just most of my early tiffs and quirks were earlier in the game. If I were playing flawlessly, I wouldn't have flipflopped on Alkend's reveal, and I would have actually been here to vote/switch votes more often to help us get lynches.
I'll save your eyes some bleeding and won't re-quote the whole Alkend thing, but yeah I was suspicious of his reveal. We've had a lot of fake revealing by scum ( /vord ) in recent games and this game was supposed to be a TMDI:3, so alliance and inter-castle mechanics being revealed with no specifics, no way to verify and seemingly no benefit to town was definitely cause for suspicion in my books.
I guess scum would want to get more details out of Alkend, so it doesn't surprise me that they would also be the ones trying to get more information out of Alkend. But IIRC, I was the only one pushing the "why did you reveal if this doesn't benefit town at all?" angle, and that was because I was more suspicious that Alkend was a fake-revealing scum than that I was trying to draw more information out of him.
Korbas, on 11 August 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:
As pointed out earlier, Okaros' vote for Rashan after his reveal was also pretty scummy:
Okaros, on 06 August 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:
You know what...
vote Rashan
Yeah, I know, he seems so much more like an idiot townie than a scum, but it's the principle of the thing. He is not playing like someone who wants town to win, plain and simple. That, by principle, makes him vote-worthy, and if we don't lynch him for it then it just gives the excuse to future idiot townies to play like shit so they don't get lynched OR for scum to play like idiot townies so they don't get lynched. That is not the kind of mafia I would want to ever play, so the line must be drawn here.
The long justification after the vote is trying too hard to look town, while essentially voting for a probably (almost definitely) town player.
I still stand by it, given the context. Town players going spastic and sabotaging their team's chances of winning for seemingly no apparent reason has ruined a few games in the recent past. I don't want to go on a big "mafia used to be better back in the old days" old geezer rant, but when there's no other good lynch on the board, why not try to shut down this problem, that otherwise doesn't seem to be showing any signs of stopping?
Korbas, on 11 August 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:
Finally, Okaros twice posts potential train starters, as Barghast begins to post thoughts about Tellan. The first is less than an hour after Barghast makes an initial post about his suspicions of Tellan:
Barghast, on 07 August 2013 - 12:37 AM, said:
Jalan, on 06 August 2013 - 11:14 PM, said:
very much this. fuck me, as if the numbers weren't bad enough.
I'm unpacking my camping gear right now, once that's all done,
I will look at Tellan and whomever the fuck started this trainwreck of a case.
Okaros, on 07 August 2013 - 01:46 AM, said:
Well it's still night but I'm not really averse to talking at night, especially in M&P games. Whether you sound off during the day or night the WIFOM can still always creep in.
So anyways, we're in a situation here we don't normally get into - that of having missed a lot of lynches. Generally, yeah, it's bad for town to miss many lynches, but on the other hand it is REALLY bad for scum. Scum is absolutely vested in getting rid of town in as few nights as possible, both because it means less info from the thread itself and also because it's fewer nights for them to be found by a healer. Plus, in general, scum tend to be more involved in the game due to their role. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll post more, but they're more likely to be keeping track of it and not miss day timing out. So given that we've had many days with a lot of people not voting, I suggest that we may be able to narrow down the scum by looking at who did and didn't vote a lot.
[snip]
Let's count for each person the number of times they didn't vote by the end of the day, the number of times they voted on the biggest train and how many times they voted somewhere else:
missed vote/voted someone else/biggest train
Barghast - 2/1/3
Galain - 2/0/4
Alkend - 0/3/3
Korbas - 1/2/3
Tellan - 1/0/5
Trake - 2/1/3
Mockra - 2/2/2
Gait - 2/2/2
Eloth - 3/1/2
Okaros - 3/2/1
Anthras - 5/0/1
I don't really remember much from Tellan all game, but other than day 1 he's been voting on the biggest train every single day. Galain also surprised me with that high of a number, and one of his missed lynch counts was only a miss by a few minutes.
So when day resumes, I think we should be looking most closely at Tellan and Galain, as well as Korbas, because I just don't see scum missing all that many votes.
The second is posted less than ten minutes after Barghast posts his first post about Tellan:
It's a fairly shaky case based on people being around to vote, and in any other game this would not even be an issue.
Barghast, on 07 August 2013 - 02:06 PM, said:
This is Tellan up the end of the Cast lynch. I've skipped empty banter posts.
[snip]
Okaros, on 07 August 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:
I'm pretty sure there's some mechanic in this game that I don't know and can't imagine, but that will explain everything afterwards... but until then I gotta just keep going forward. So in addition to the consideration of people's votes per day from above, I also want to consider night presence. In short:
Night 1 - no one dies
Night 2 - Desra+Liosan die
Night 3 (fast resolve) - Kalse vigged by Rashan
Night 4 (time out) - no one dies - Galain, Korbas, Tellan, Jalan posted during or just before night (Eloth, Gait, Jalan, Okaros all missed night and late day)
Night 5 (did not time out) - Hanas dies
Night 6 (time out) - no one dies (except Roldom modkilled) - everyone but Eloth posted during or just before night
Eloth is the only one that seems to have been absent both times that night timed out and resulted in no kills. Furthermore he only showed up for the first time about halfway through night 1, and night 1 ended not too long afterwards.
Does that explain everything? No, because obviously if he is a killer he had a NK in early for night 3 but it still didn't go through, and likewise for night 1, plus there's got to be a reason for the two deaths on night 2. But those could be explained by heals, vigs, castle mechanics or whatever. I'm not trying to give a concrete view of the whole picture, but the parts that do line up with Eloth being a killer fit very well.
For now
Vote Eloth
as I think this merits a deeper look.
and this case plus vote is even wonkier than the earlier case, based off people being around to leave provisionals. This is despite the fact that, as Eloth himself pointed out, any decent scum player would put in provisionals with PS before leaving. It also totally ignores the effect of any town roles on NAs.
Up until this point Okaros' posts have generally been well thought out and logical, so this deviation screams to me that he is trying to protect his partner.
Vote Okaros.
I'm now going to bed. I'll be back in 12 hours or so to discuss.
The fact that "in any other game this would not even be an issue" is not at all relevant, because in this game where we've had 3 or 4 failed lynches and the game timer kept running over a weekend it IS an issue. We have some players who have disappeared for huge amounts of game time, missed lynches and nights with no kills, with no easy and confirmable explanations of why. Player activity can potentially be supremely relevant in a situation like that.
But it's not like I was ramming this down everyone's throats trying to fixate the thread on this. I brought it up for open consideration at a time when there wasn't, IMO, a whole lot else to go on. More information and ideas is good for town - are you saying I should have just not brought it up and voted like a good little sheeple? If your sole argument against even considering this is that "any decent scum player would put in provisionals with PS before leaving" then let's hear your factual analysis of why there have been so few NKs? Oh right, you think somehow Barghast's guard has been blocking two pairs of killers when it wouldn't even make sense for it to block even one
Anyways, I don't have some big reveal or secret information to bring out to defend myself. I'm just an RI (in Arai if that makes any difference). If I were a killer, I don't think I would have acted so synchronously with the others who have CF'd scum so far, nor made a case that involved not one but two lists! I defnitely haven't played flawlessly, either, heck I wouldn't even really say that I've been playing a very good game so far. *shrug* town will decide. I wish I could say here the famous "oh but if I do get lynched you should really look at ____ and ____, I'm sure of it" but honestly I'm not sure at all who might be scum at this point.
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