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104 - Warring States Mafia 4 - Fujiwari Expansion Sengoku Series
#1302
Gnaw 
- Recovering eating disordered addict of HHM
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Posted 09 August 2013 - 08:34 PM
It is Day 9. The clock has been frozen with 24 Hours and 59 Minutes remaining.
7 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, Gait, Galain, Korbas, Okaros, Trake
4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.
Players not voted: Alkend, Barghast, Gait, Galain, Korbas, Okaros, Trake
All timers are frozen.
You may talk and vote.
Resolutions, if any, will take place only after clock is unfrozen on Monday.
7 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, Gait, Galain, Korbas, Okaros, Trake
4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.
Players not voted: Alkend, Barghast, Gait, Galain, Korbas, Okaros, Trake
All timers are frozen.
You may talk and vote.
Resolutions, if any, will take place only after clock is unfrozen on Monday.
This post has been edited by Gnaw: 09 August 2013 - 08:49 PM
"Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom." - Viktor Frankl
#1305
Korbas
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Posted 11 August 2013 - 11:52 AM
I now have 5 pages of notes, all beautifully colour-coordinated. Plus many many thoughts.
First off, I believe that both Alkend and Barghast are town. Both their reveals have panned out, and been, at least in part, corroborated by other sources.
From what we have seen of the night kills, I personally think it most likely that we had two pairs of killers, with a symp that knew them all. It explains the dual kill on night two, it explains why Mockra was killed, it explains why this game is still going, it works with the theory that killers can only target one castle each, and it fits with the number of players. The only thing I can't figure out is how it fits in with the guards.
I think Okaros is one general. I think Gait is the symp. I can't tell who out of Trake and Galain is the other killer.
Reasonings for all of the above incoming.
First off, I believe that both Alkend and Barghast are town. Both their reveals have panned out, and been, at least in part, corroborated by other sources.
From what we have seen of the night kills, I personally think it most likely that we had two pairs of killers, with a symp that knew them all. It explains the dual kill on night two, it explains why Mockra was killed, it explains why this game is still going, it works with the theory that killers can only target one castle each, and it fits with the number of players. The only thing I can't figure out is how it fits in with the guards.
I think Okaros is one general. I think Gait is the symp. I can't tell who out of Trake and Galain is the other killer.
Reasonings for all of the above incoming.
#1306
Korbas
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Posted 11 August 2013 - 12:10 PM
So, early on after Alkend's reveal, Galain starts questioning. He is in favour of lynching Cast, suggesting that if Cast comes back RI it may mean that he was the symp, and thus Alkend would also be scum.
[snip]
Indeed. Now we can lynch Cast to clear you - after all if he turns up RI we know you're scum and he was your symp.
Despite the fact that Cast CFing RI could mean either that he was RI or that he was scum.
After the lynch, Galain notes that Cast's CF was 'generic', and this somehow clears Alkend
But then, the same day, returns to his theory that Cast could have been the symp:
[snip]
Which brings us round nicely to suggesting that Cast was your symp.
This inconsistency is never explained.
Later, he pressures D'riss into self-hammering. Not necessarily scummy in and of itself, but his insistence that D'riss hammers does stand out.
Then bloody well hammer and prove it. You're claiming RI and you'll be confusing thread just like Alkend.
More recently, he states that I swung the lynch towards Eloth, when it was in fact Gait's removal from Tellan and vote on Eloth was the real swing, taking them from three votes each to two for Tellan, four for Eloth.
This post smacks of setting up a lynch for the following day, and it is his misrepresentation of the facts that suggests scum to me.
Elsewhere he attempts to draw people into discussions about potential town roles and why there were such a lack of NKs.
Galain, on 31 July 2013 - 09:44 PM, said:
[snip]
Indeed. Now we can lynch Cast to clear you - after all if he turns up RI we know you're scum and he was your symp.
Despite the fact that Cast CFing RI could mean either that he was RI or that he was scum.
After the lynch, Galain notes that Cast's CF was 'generic', and this somehow clears Alkend
Galain, on 31 July 2013 - 11:22 PM, said:
Looks like you're cleared then Alkend. Generic-sounding name isn't telling me anything about likely role lost but then my Japanese history has never been great. I'm outta here, will do some thinking tonight.
But then, the same day, returns to his theory that Cast could have been the symp:
Galain, on 31 July 2013 - 11:27 PM, said:
[snip]
Which brings us round nicely to suggesting that Cast was your symp.
This inconsistency is never explained.
Later, he pressures D'riss into self-hammering. Not necessarily scummy in and of itself, but his insistence that D'riss hammers does stand out.
Galain, on 02 August 2013 - 12:27 PM, said:
If D'riss is town he'll know a lynch is better than a no-lynch for us, so no pressure or anything...
Galain, on 02 August 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:
D, on 02 August 2013 - 12:28 PM, said:
Well, I have nothing to reveal. I am Kenshiro Mochizuki and I'm an RI in Edo.
Then bloody well hammer and prove it. You're claiming RI and you'll be confusing thread just like Alkend.
More recently, he states that I swung the lynch towards Eloth, when it was in fact Gait's removal from Tellan and vote on Eloth was the real swing, taking them from three votes each to two for Tellan, four for Eloth.
Galain, on 08 August 2013 - 11:59 AM, said:
I note it was Korbas who swung the lynch to Eloth, depending on the CF that could be interesting.
Trake, 4 scum? I had been looking at an odd number, therefore making each town equally sized. I didn't see any reason to have two different sized towns. What was your theory behind 4 scum?
Trake, 4 scum? I had been looking at an odd number, therefore making each town equally sized. I didn't see any reason to have two different sized towns. What was your theory behind 4 scum?
This post smacks of setting up a lynch for the following day, and it is his misrepresentation of the facts that suggests scum to me.
Elsewhere he attempts to draw people into discussions about potential town roles and why there were such a lack of NKs.
#1307
Korbas
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Posted 11 August 2013 - 12:21 PM
My biggest issue with Trake is his behaviour around Tellan's reveal and lynch. It had to be obvious that at least one of us was scum, and leaving either of us alive would have unnecessarily clouded the thread. Everyone else was picking sides, and most of the other players were against Tellan for his wonky reveal and backtracking. However, Trake dithers, suggesting instead Gait's lynch, apparently in the hope that either me or Tellan would make some kind of slip in the intervening time that was big enough to be obvious to Trake, because Tellan's aforementioned reveal and backtracking were not obvious enough.
Later, he throws out the possibility that I and Tellan were trying to distance from each other, despite the fact that we had never been linked before that day, and that had I been distancing from Tellan I would have voted for him.
A little. I know an OMGUS is never something you want to do but it was a ways into the train when he claimed Korbas as scum. Which could also be seen as distancing in the new light.
If I were trying to distance from Tellan why would I not vote for him?
Edit: To make grammar work
Because fairies wear boots? I don't know man, its night and I'm throwing out a possible scenario.
He doesn't have a reasonable answer for bringing up this scenario, which indicates that it was simply a random thought thrown out in order to throw suspicion on me.
Other than this, though, Trake has been pushing for a Mockra lynch from day two or three, for various reasons, and this adherence to one target doesn't really fit with my expectation of scum behaviour.
Trake, on 08 August 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:
In fact, I'd still be more inclined to lynch Gait than either Korbas or Tellan because I'm 1000% convinced of his scumminess while the other 2 are stuck in he-said-she-said limbo.
Later, he throws out the possibility that I and Tellan were trying to distance from each other, despite the fact that we had never been linked before that day, and that had I been distancing from Tellan I would have voted for him.
Trake, on 09 August 2013 - 10:17 AM, said:
Korbas, on 09 August 2013 - 06:40 AM, said:
Korbas, on 09 August 2013 - 04:42 AM, said:
Trake, on 09 August 2013 - 04:18 AM, said:
Barghast, on 09 August 2013 - 04:04 AM, said:
anyone else find it odd that Korbas nver voted for the guy who accused him of being scum?
A little. I know an OMGUS is never something you want to do but it was a ways into the train when he claimed Korbas as scum. Which could also be seen as distancing in the new light.
If I were trying to distance from Tellan why would I not vote for him?
Edit: To make grammar work
Because fairies wear boots? I don't know man, its night and I'm throwing out a possible scenario.
He doesn't have a reasonable answer for bringing up this scenario, which indicates that it was simply a random thought thrown out in order to throw suspicion on me.
Other than this, though, Trake has been pushing for a Mockra lynch from day two or three, for various reasons, and this adherence to one target doesn't really fit with my expectation of scum behaviour.
#1308
Gait
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Posted 11 August 2013 - 12:34 PM
Not to detract from your theory, but I was twice pretty hot for Tellan. Not what a symp does for his master, at the end-game.
I had a duo of Trake, Mockra and added Barghast to that based on his reaction on my vote for Trake earlier on as scum - I have since scratched Barghast. I think there's still enough of a connection between Trake and Mockra in past days, and below is also some deflection away from Tellan (towards me) when the Tellan reveal was already dissected to a T by several other players.
How about we lynch him instead?
I had a duo of Trake, Mockra and added Barghast to that based on his reaction on my vote for Trake earlier on as scum - I have since scratched Barghast. I think there's still enough of a connection between Trake and Mockra in past days, and below is also some deflection away from Tellan (towards me) when the Tellan reveal was already dissected to a T by several other players.
Tellan, on 08 August 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:
Trake, on 08 August 2013 - 09:09 PM, said:
If anyone needs it pointed out to them, Gait jumping on immediately to bring a revealed character to L-1 while we are still waiting for info from another person screams scum. If anyone was still doubtful about him.
How about we lynch him instead?
Trake, on 08 August 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:
In fact, I'd still be more inclined to lynch Gait than either Korbas or Tellan because I'm 1000% convinced of his scumminess while the other 2 are stuck in he-said-she-said limbo.
#1309
Korbas
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Posted 11 August 2013 - 12:52 PM
On to Gait:
He throws suspicion on Alkend's reveal early on. Incidentally, the main proponents of lynching Alkend after his reveal were Mockra, Tellan and Okaros. Interesting, no?
He also tends to be fairly definite about who he thinks are scum and town, PIing certain players early on:
Again, interesting the number of scum players in that list of 'probably innocent'. However, as soon as Barghast starts suggesting he could be the symp, he starts distancing from the scum, he links Mockra with Barghast and Trake:
He slots two scum in a list with other non-scum:
And finally he votes Tellan, but not before casting doubt on Barghast's case:
The second day Tellan comes up for a vote, he is basically a lost cause, and Gait loses nothing by voting for him.
As Barghast pointed out earlier, Gait is very suspect for initiating a voting train on Trake as soon as he leaves, with a 'case' based solely on gut:
And he almost immediately changes to an Eloth vote after I have voted, swinging the lynch and saving his master for another day, despite earlier indicating that he was happy with his vote:
The justification at the end of this post in particular is what stood out for me, he is trying to pre-empt any backlash about his voting patterns, and just ends up looking scummier.
Finally, he is quick to assign blame after the lynch of Tellan, which looks like opportunistic scum trying to get ahead of the pack.
That gets a whole new meaning after this lynch...
These last two votes tend to make me feel as if Trake was inno, as Gait seems to be trying to set him up for the lynch, although this could again be distancing, it seems unlikely.
He throws suspicion on Alkend's reveal early on. Incidentally, the main proponents of lynching Alkend after his reveal were Mockra, Tellan and Okaros. Interesting, no?
Gait, on 01 August 2013 - 08:35 AM, said:
With regard to Alkend's reveal, one might further say that 'the specific circumstances' he hinted at mean "if I have a symp who will reveal for me", leaving it all vague enough to go through.
This last ditch reveal at L-1 smacked of desperation.
You are RI until "something" happens.
Why the fuck, if you have a conditional role "over which circumstances you have no control" which makes you a fucking RI until the team accomplishes something, at the moment of the lynch would you save yourself? How likely is this "thing" to happen? How quickly is "it" to happen?
Is an RI worth the attention of a healer on night 2?
Instead, you fucking give your targets, mourn the thing that might not be, speak your suspicions and go down.
And then, when someone tries to save you, you go "I don't believe you", shaft him and then blame him for the mess you created.
Alkend, your play positively disgusts me.
This last ditch reveal at L-1 smacked of desperation.
You are RI until "something" happens.
Why the fuck, if you have a conditional role "over which circumstances you have no control" which makes you a fucking RI until the team accomplishes something, at the moment of the lynch would you save yourself? How likely is this "thing" to happen? How quickly is "it" to happen?
Is an RI worth the attention of a healer on night 2?
Instead, you fucking give your targets, mourn the thing that might not be, speak your suspicions and go down.
And then, when someone tries to save you, you go "I don't believe you", shaft him and then blame him for the mess you created.
Alkend, your play positively disgusts me.
He also tends to be fairly definite about who he thinks are scum and town, PIing certain players early on:
Gait, on 01 August 2013 - 08:41 AM, said:
Personally, I am going to PI Okaros, Barghast and (le sigh) Alkend. Two for having a brain, the last for having a town role. Trake I'd rather not lynch either.
Then there's a bunch of people who have blood on their mind regardless who's blood it is. I don't like that.
I honest to god really don't like Rashan. He was going on and on about dragon sex while a lynch train was coming together, was around for ages but didn't contribute shit and yet had the audicity to ask people to think and put stuff on thread. Coasting through a crisis is being non-commital. being non-commital is scummy.
Vote Rashan.
Then there's a bunch of people who have blood on their mind regardless who's blood it is. I don't like that.
I honest to god really don't like Rashan. He was going on and on about dragon sex while a lynch train was coming together, was around for ages but didn't contribute shit and yet had the audicity to ask people to think and put stuff on thread. Coasting through a crisis is being non-commital. being non-commital is scummy.
Vote Rashan.
Gait, on 05 August 2013 - 06:52 AM, said:
Vote Rashan
Why the fuck does one vig so early in the game, and if one does, why does he then not explain his choice?!
Why the fuck does one vig so early in the game, and if one does, why does he then not explain his choice?!
Gait, on 05 August 2013 - 07:24 AM, said:
I don't count "smooth" as a reason, obviously, in regard to the above.
That being said, this game stinks of poor play through and through. I know I am hardly in the position to point fingers with my continued absences, but since I'm a hypocrite, I will anyway
.
There's more name-calling than suspicions, and people are being flamed for situations that, while unfortunate, are part of life.
With regard to the lack of scum kills over the weekend: I don't think, if you are a killer, that you'd fail to put in a provisional and get it confirmed by P-S - only way that might happen is if the partner-killer is also absent and forgets to confirm the kill, not having made the blanket statement: "I auto-confirm any prov you make" on day 1. Which would be poor play.
I think Rashan should go. Not only is he completely lacking in explanations, preferring to self-vote in lieu of expanding on his thoughts, he also self-votes which could get him an easy ride into the end-game if we let it stand, inno-vibe or not. My gut tingles at Hanas as he is very good in being confrontational through name-calling and using circumstances around the failed lynch to accuse people, but offers almost no viewpoints otherwise. It is a very safe way to seem to contribute.
Mockra doesn't give me scum vibes. Trake and Barghast seem level-headed, I believe for now in PI status but that could also be un-pressed scum.
Tellan seems mostly inno to me, scum wouldn't do as much legwork for nought, although I am curious to see if they can keep it up.
Okaros seemed smart early on. And that's most of what I have.
That being said, this game stinks of poor play through and through. I know I am hardly in the position to point fingers with my continued absences, but since I'm a hypocrite, I will anyway
. There's more name-calling than suspicions, and people are being flamed for situations that, while unfortunate, are part of life.
With regard to the lack of scum kills over the weekend: I don't think, if you are a killer, that you'd fail to put in a provisional and get it confirmed by P-S - only way that might happen is if the partner-killer is also absent and forgets to confirm the kill, not having made the blanket statement: "I auto-confirm any prov you make" on day 1. Which would be poor play.
I think Rashan should go. Not only is he completely lacking in explanations, preferring to self-vote in lieu of expanding on his thoughts, he also self-votes which could get him an easy ride into the end-game if we let it stand, inno-vibe or not. My gut tingles at Hanas as he is very good in being confrontational through name-calling and using circumstances around the failed lynch to accuse people, but offers almost no viewpoints otherwise. It is a very safe way to seem to contribute.
Mockra doesn't give me scum vibes. Trake and Barghast seem level-headed, I believe for now in PI status but that could also be un-pressed scum.
Tellan seems mostly inno to me, scum wouldn't do as much legwork for nought, although I am curious to see if they can keep it up.
Okaros seemed smart early on. And that's most of what I have.
Again, interesting the number of scum players in that list of 'probably innocent'. However, as soon as Barghast starts suggesting he could be the symp, he starts distancing from the scum, he links Mockra with Barghast and Trake:
Gait, on 07 August 2013 - 01:41 PM, said:
Interesting. For the record, the question is mostly rhetorical - who in their right mind would admit they are defending someone in their stead, as it means they'd be convinced of that person's innocence? Even so, if your case is on me for being a symp, you lost your mind and I'll predict you, Trake and possibly Mockra are scum.
He slots two scum in a list with other non-scum:
Gait, on 08 August 2013 - 08:42 AM, said:
It's a pity we're at or super close to D-day and the lynch has become a negotiation process. With a bit more activity we could have been at this stage a day or two ago, I guess, but oh well.
to add my two cents: I will be willing to vote for Trake (seem to be the only one), Tellan or Eloth (who indeed has gone into overdrive) with Mockra as a distant last on that list.
to add my two cents: I will be willing to vote for Trake (seem to be the only one), Tellan or Eloth (who indeed has gone into overdrive) with Mockra as a distant last on that list.
And finally he votes Tellan, but not before casting doubt on Barghast's case:
Gait, on 07 August 2013 - 02:49 PM, said:
Huhm. Big case. A lot of it boils down to posting style I think, which, as you say, is fairly non-confrontational, but how many of us are Vengeance or DKT?
Overall, I guess the tl;dr is: Tellan's game plan boils down to:
1) the Lynch is holy and must happen regardless of target;
2) do not disagree openly with others;
3) leave an outspoken margin of doubt when voting.
I can vote for this.
Remove vote
Vote Tellan
Overall, I guess the tl;dr is: Tellan's game plan boils down to:
1) the Lynch is holy and must happen regardless of target;
2) do not disagree openly with others;
3) leave an outspoken margin of doubt when voting.
I can vote for this.
Remove vote
Vote Tellan
The second day Tellan comes up for a vote, he is basically a lost cause, and Gait loses nothing by voting for him.
As Barghast pointed out earlier, Gait is very suspect for initiating a voting train on Trake as soon as he leaves, with a 'case' based solely on gut:
Gait, on 07 August 2013 - 12:02 PM, said:
We're not being very productive as a town, aren't we?
Vote Trake.
He's been active and sensible early game but withdrawn later, with hardly a comment on hot issues and only a lecture here and there. It might partly be caused by real life but even taking that into account, it is exceptionally uncommitted play and from a player who I early on could see lead town in opinion-making, disappointing. It could be scum with the end-game nerve approaching "X more days to victory" and getting into the ultimate safe mode.
It is gut - it could be anyone, but hey. If anyone has anything better, throw it out.
Vote Trake.
He's been active and sensible early game but withdrawn later, with hardly a comment on hot issues and only a lecture here and there. It might partly be caused by real life but even taking that into account, it is exceptionally uncommitted play and from a player who I early on could see lead town in opinion-making, disappointing. It could be scum with the end-game nerve approaching "X more days to victory" and getting into the ultimate safe mode.
It is gut - it could be anyone, but hey. If anyone has anything better, throw it out.
And he almost immediately changes to an Eloth vote after I have voted, swinging the lynch and saving his master for another day, despite earlier indicating that he was happy with his vote:
Gait, on 08 August 2013 - 11:16 AM, said:
Here, but very busy.
As stated earlier, Eloth is a lynch I can get behind, and I think we have nothing to win by division.
Remove vote
Vote Eloth
I don't know why people are super concerned with my 'vote hopping' - it is the second time I changed votes today, admittedly, but the first was in response to a case that still seems OK, and the second is on someone we suspect and I declared I could get behind.
As stated earlier, Eloth is a lynch I can get behind, and I think we have nothing to win by division.
Remove vote
Vote Eloth
I don't know why people are super concerned with my 'vote hopping' - it is the second time I changed votes today, admittedly, but the first was in response to a case that still seems OK, and the second is on someone we suspect and I declared I could get behind.
The justification at the end of this post in particular is what stood out for me, he is trying to pre-empt any backlash about his voting patterns, and just ends up looking scummier.
Finally, he is quick to assign blame after the lynch of Tellan, which looks like opportunistic scum trying to get ahead of the pack.
Gait, on 09 August 2013 - 04:29 AM, said:
Trake, on 08 August 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:
In fact, I'd still be more inclined to lynch Gait than either Korbas or Tellan because I'm 1000% convinced of his scumminess while the other 2 are stuck in he-said-she-said limbo.
That gets a whole new meaning after this lynch...
These last two votes tend to make me feel as if Trake was inno, as Gait seems to be trying to set him up for the lynch, although this could again be distancing, it seems unlikely.
#1310
Korbas
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Posted 11 August 2013 - 12:55 PM
Gait, on 11 August 2013 - 12:34 PM, said:
Not to detract from your theory, but I was twice pretty hot for Tellan. Not what a symp does for his master, at the end-game.
I had a duo of Trake, Mockra and added Barghast to that based on his reaction on my vote for Trake earlier on as scum - I have since scratched Barghast. I think there's still enough of a connection between Trake and Mockra in past days, and below is also some deflection away from Tellan (towards me) when the Tellan reveal was already dissected to a T by several other players.
How about we lynch him instead?
I had a duo of Trake, Mockra and added Barghast to that based on his reaction on my vote for Trake earlier on as scum - I have since scratched Barghast. I think there's still enough of a connection between Trake and Mockra in past days, and below is also some deflection away from Tellan (towards me) when the Tellan reveal was already dissected to a T by several other players.
Tellan, on 08 August 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:
Trake, on 08 August 2013 - 09:09 PM, said:
If anyone needs it pointed out to them, Gait jumping on immediately to bring a revealed character to L-1 while we are still waiting for info from another person screams scum. If anyone was still doubtful about him.
How about we lynch him instead?
Trake, on 08 August 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:
In fact, I'd still be more inclined to lynch Gait than either Korbas or Tellan because I'm 1000% convinced of his scumminess while the other 2 are stuck in he-said-she-said limbo.
Unless said symp was aware that there were still several scum players out there, and that distancing from one gave the others a better chance at success. The top quote you posted is Tellan attempting to deflect the lynch away from himself, which tells us absolutely nothing except that Tellan was willing to sacrifice you to save himself.
#1311
Korbas
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Posted 11 August 2013 - 01:27 PM
Finally, Okaros.
Okaros has played a fairly flawless game, but there are a few things that really stand out.
The first is Okaros' determined suspicion of Alkend's reveal. As I said above, the main proponents of Alkend's lynch after the reveal were the people we now know were scum. Okaros spends a fair amount of time attempting to discredit Alkend's reveal:
Better to avoid a lynch when you know you're innocent and the argument against you is poor.
Fine. When the members of the two factions are able to form an alliance (don't ask me how that works, I don't know), and I am still alive, which makes sense given my role title, which I'll synonym as "paperboy".
I don't have a lover. I communicate on behalf of a named character with the other castle, who I assume knows who I am, or at least knows the role name. I don't know who they are by alt. They are probably irreplaceable and so should not reveal under any circumstances.
I'm hoping my reveal lets me survive long enough for an alliance to be brokered and for whatever that means to have some effect.
As for the Goro Miura thing, the game is set in an alternate timeline, I guess, but honestly, I don't know.
Alkend, you're still holding back here... what the hell does "I communicate [...] with the other castle" mean? You send PMs at night? You have to shout in bold and italics on thread? You get a lover convo?
I don't get your "the two factions" either... there's at least 3 - Miura Fujiwara and Uesugi. Surely you're not suggesting it is a town-scum alliance...
And so then you want us to believe that there is some sort of alliance mechanic, that is itself constrained by other circumstances and only create-able by two specific players ("When the members of the two factions are able to form an alliance"), and then when that happens they have to use another specific player (Alkend) to be their messenger or some such? We've just had a night with 2 deaths. Even assuming that that was just a vig and there's 1NK+lynch per cycle, this game is definitely not so big that there'd be any mechanic that relies on at least 3 specific town players all staying alive long enough to achieve a bunch of specific circumstances you won't/can't elaborate on. The probability of those 3 players all being alive long enough is not high enough to warrant bothering to include the mechanic in the game.
So again you're being unnecessarily coy to the detriment of town, and again your reveal doesn't, IMO, pan out at all to something that makes sense as a useful town reveal.
So again I will
vote Alkend
As pointed out earlier, Okaros' vote for Rashan after his reveal was also pretty scummy:
The long justification after the vote is trying too hard to look town, while essentially voting for a probably (almost definitely) town player.
Finally, Okaros twice posts potential train starters, as Barghast begins to post thoughts about Tellan. The first is less than an hour after Barghast makes an initial post about his suspicions of Tellan:
very much this. fuck me, as if the numbers weren't bad enough.
I'm unpacking my camping gear right now, once that's all done, I will look at Tellan and whomever the fuck started this trainwreck of a case.
It's a fairly shaky case based on people being around to vote, and in any other game this would not even be an issue.
and this case plus vote is even wonkier than the earlier case, based off people being around to leave provisionals. This is despite the fact that, as Eloth himself pointed out, any decent scum player would put in provisionals with PS before leaving. It also totally ignores the effect of any town roles on NAs.
Up until this point Okaros' posts have generally been well thought out and logical, so this deviation screams to me that he is trying to protect his partner.
Vote Okaros.
I'm now going to bed. I'll be back in 12 hours or so to discuss.
Okaros has played a fairly flawless game, but there are a few things that really stand out.
The first is Okaros' determined suspicion of Alkend's reveal. As I said above, the main proponents of Alkend's lynch after the reveal were the people we now know were scum. Okaros spends a fair amount of time attempting to discredit Alkend's reveal:
Okaros, on 01 August 2013 - 02:22 PM, said:
Alkend, on 01 August 2013 - 03:47 AM, said:
Okaros, on 01 August 2013 - 03:30 AM, said:
If I were to believe Alkend, I have a hard time trying to put together all of the things Alkend has said and done here into a cohesive MO.
So, under pressure on day 2 Alkend reveals a role that it seems cannot give us any useful information through his reveal other than to PI him. It's not as bad as a Healer revealing, but it's fairly close. Why reveal? Just to save your skin? But since you emphasize that it is only under "very specific circumstances" you are implying that it is a weak role. Generally, it is not useful to reveal due to pressure when your reveal and role can't provide any info to town like a Finder can. All it does is identify for scum a roled town. It's generally better not to give scum that information they don't have and keep them more in the dark about the town setup and who is left.
Alkend, on 31 July 2013 - 04:00 PM, said:
Sigh.
I'm Goro, of the Miura clan.
My ability allows certain members of the two town factions to communicate, under very specific circumstances.
Happy now?
I'm Goro, of the Miura clan.
My ability allows certain members of the two town factions to communicate, under very specific circumstances.
Happy now?
So, under pressure on day 2 Alkend reveals a role that it seems cannot give us any useful information through his reveal other than to PI him. It's not as bad as a Healer revealing, but it's fairly close. Why reveal? Just to save your skin? But since you emphasize that it is only under "very specific circumstances" you are implying that it is a weak role. Generally, it is not useful to reveal due to pressure when your reveal and role can't provide any info to town like a Finder can. All it does is identify for scum a roled town. It's generally better not to give scum that information they don't have and keep them more in the dark about the town setup and who is left.
Better to avoid a lynch when you know you're innocent and the argument against you is poor.
Quote
This game is supposed to be low TMDI, so all of those principles still apply.
But instead Alkend felt that revealing his weak role to save his skin is more beneficial for town than keeping quiet. I have two problems with believing this idea:
1. If the reveal helps us, why not reveal fully? Tell us what the "very specific circumstances" are. If you've already revealed as roled town, what's the harm in giving town more information (which ultimately is always what town lacks and needs to win) instead of being coy about it? The scum will try and remove you whether they know the details or whether they just know you are roled town. But you had all day and didn't do so. (And before you make some "I didn't want to get modkilled" defence, a simple read of the OP indicates that revealing your abilities is allowed as long as you change the wording, which should not be difficult, so that is no excuse)
But instead Alkend felt that revealing his weak role to save his skin is more beneficial for town than keeping quiet. I have two problems with believing this idea:
1. If the reveal helps us, why not reveal fully? Tell us what the "very specific circumstances" are. If you've already revealed as roled town, what's the harm in giving town more information (which ultimately is always what town lacks and needs to win) instead of being coy about it? The scum will try and remove you whether they know the details or whether they just know you are roled town. But you had all day and didn't do so. (And before you make some "I didn't want to get modkilled" defence, a simple read of the OP indicates that revealing your abilities is allowed as long as you change the wording, which should not be difficult, so that is no excuse)
Fine. When the members of the two factions are able to form an alliance (don't ask me how that works, I don't know), and I am still alive, which makes sense given my role title, which I'll synonym as "paperboy".
Quote
2.
Short of the person I communicate on behalf of coming on thread and saying "Yep, he's cool", there's nothing I can do.
If you are that person, don't be an idiot.
Alkend then discourages his supposed lover from publicly confirming his reveal. Why? He's already revealing to save his skin so clearly Alkend thinks he is important to town. Why be only a PI and not get yourself a VPI or CI? Especially since with no kill last night there's a high chance of a healer - if the healer is convinced you are CI they won't be doubting themselves from healing you every night. Furthermore, whomever is the lover and speaks up to confirm the reveal is not in any more danger because since Alkend has not revealed any mechanics of his ability the person he turns into a lover could just as easily be roled town, RI, or even scum. That person does not need to reveal anything about themselves, just say "I am Alkend's current lover as of last night and what he says is true" and nothing more, which doesn't reveal anything about themselves but does give town more information to work with.
Alkend, on 31 July 2013 - 04:51 PM, said:
Anthras, on 31 July 2013 - 04:48 PM, said:
So there is no way Alkend can verify his claim?
Short of the person I communicate on behalf of coming on thread and saying "Yep, he's cool", there's nothing I can do.
If you are that person, don't be an idiot.
Alkend then discourages his supposed lover from publicly confirming his reveal. Why? He's already revealing to save his skin so clearly Alkend thinks he is important to town. Why be only a PI and not get yourself a VPI or CI? Especially since with no kill last night there's a high chance of a healer - if the healer is convinced you are CI they won't be doubting themselves from healing you every night. Furthermore, whomever is the lover and speaks up to confirm the reveal is not in any more danger because since Alkend has not revealed any mechanics of his ability the person he turns into a lover could just as easily be roled town, RI, or even scum. That person does not need to reveal anything about themselves, just say "I am Alkend's current lover as of last night and what he says is true" and nothing more, which doesn't reveal anything about themselves but does give town more information to work with.
I don't have a lover. I communicate on behalf of a named character with the other castle, who I assume knows who I am, or at least knows the role name. I don't know who they are by alt. They are probably irreplaceable and so should not reveal under any circumstances.
Quote
So if Alkend actively believes his revealing is worth it to town, and if there's no harm in someone else confirming it to assuage our doubts, why is he discouraging that from happening?!
So yeah, I have a very hard time believing that Alkend's intentions here match what a player who wants town to win would be doing.
Oh, and also, I can't find any Goros who were affiliated with the Miura clan. But if you were hurriedly doing a google search for a plausible Miura name to fake reveal as, one of the top results might be Miura Goro, which sounds good as long as you don't read too much about him and realize that he is born in the wrong century to be a Sengoku samurai...
So yeah, I have a very hard time believing that Alkend's intentions here match what a player who wants town to win would be doing.
Oh, and also, I can't find any Goros who were affiliated with the Miura clan. But if you were hurriedly doing a google search for a plausible Miura name to fake reveal as, one of the top results might be Miura Goro, which sounds good as long as you don't read too much about him and realize that he is born in the wrong century to be a Sengoku samurai...
I'm hoping my reveal lets me survive long enough for an alliance to be brokered and for whatever that means to have some effect.
As for the Goro Miura thing, the game is set in an alternate timeline, I guess, but honestly, I don't know.
Alkend, you're still holding back here... what the hell does "I communicate [...] with the other castle" mean? You send PMs at night? You have to shout in bold and italics on thread? You get a lover convo?
I don't get your "the two factions" either... there's at least 3 - Miura Fujiwara and Uesugi. Surely you're not suggesting it is a town-scum alliance...
And so then you want us to believe that there is some sort of alliance mechanic, that is itself constrained by other circumstances and only create-able by two specific players ("When the members of the two factions are able to form an alliance"), and then when that happens they have to use another specific player (Alkend) to be their messenger or some such? We've just had a night with 2 deaths. Even assuming that that was just a vig and there's 1NK+lynch per cycle, this game is definitely not so big that there'd be any mechanic that relies on at least 3 specific town players all staying alive long enough to achieve a bunch of specific circumstances you won't/can't elaborate on. The probability of those 3 players all being alive long enough is not high enough to warrant bothering to include the mechanic in the game.
So again you're being unnecessarily coy to the detriment of town, and again your reveal doesn't, IMO, pan out at all to something that makes sense as a useful town reveal.
So again I will
vote Alkend
As pointed out earlier, Okaros' vote for Rashan after his reveal was also pretty scummy:
Okaros, on 06 August 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:
You know what...
vote Rashan
Yeah, I know, he seems so much more like an idiot townie than a scum, but it's the principle of the thing. He is not playing like someone who wants town to win, plain and simple. That, by principle, makes him vote-worthy, and if we don't lynch him for it then it just gives the excuse to future idiot townies to play like shit so they don't get lynched OR for scum to play like idiot townies so they don't get lynched. That is not the kind of mafia I would want to ever play, so the line must be drawn here.
vote Rashan
Yeah, I know, he seems so much more like an idiot townie than a scum, but it's the principle of the thing. He is not playing like someone who wants town to win, plain and simple. That, by principle, makes him vote-worthy, and if we don't lynch him for it then it just gives the excuse to future idiot townies to play like shit so they don't get lynched OR for scum to play like idiot townies so they don't get lynched. That is not the kind of mafia I would want to ever play, so the line must be drawn here.
The long justification after the vote is trying too hard to look town, while essentially voting for a probably (almost definitely) town player.
Finally, Okaros twice posts potential train starters, as Barghast begins to post thoughts about Tellan. The first is less than an hour after Barghast makes an initial post about his suspicions of Tellan:
Barghast, on 07 August 2013 - 12:37 AM, said:
Jalan, on 06 August 2013 - 11:14 PM, said:
sad state of affairs
very much this. fuck me, as if the numbers weren't bad enough.
I'm unpacking my camping gear right now, once that's all done, I will look at Tellan and whomever the fuck started this trainwreck of a case.
Okaros, on 07 August 2013 - 01:46 AM, said:
Well it's still night but I'm not really averse to talking at night, especially in M&P games. Whether you sound off during the day or night the WIFOM can still always creep in.
So anyways, we're in a situation here we don't normally get into - that of having missed a lot of lynches. Generally, yeah, it's bad for town to miss many lynches, but on the other hand it is REALLY bad for scum. Scum is absolutely vested in getting rid of town in as few nights as possible, both because it means less info from the thread itself and also because it's fewer nights for them to be found by a healer. Plus, in general, scum tend to be more involved in the game due to their role. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll post more, but they're more likely to be keeping track of it and not miss day timing out. So given that we've had many days with a lot of people not voting, I suggest that we may be able to narrow down the scum by looking at who did and didn't vote a lot.
[snip]
Let's count for each person the number of times they didn't vote by the end of the day, the number of times they voted on the biggest train and how many times they voted somewhere else:
missed vote/voted someone else/biggest train
Barghast - 2/1/3
Galain - 2/0/4
Alkend - 0/3/3
Korbas - 1/2/3
Tellan - 1/0/5
Trake - 2/1/3
Mockra - 2/2/2
Gait - 2/2/2
Eloth - 3/1/2
Okaros - 3/2/1
Anthras - 5/0/1
I don't really remember much from Tellan all game, but other than day 1 he's been voting on the biggest train every single day. Galain also surprised me with that high of a number, and one of his missed lynch counts was only a miss by a few minutes.
So when day resumes, I think we should be looking most closely at Tellan and Galain, as well as Korbas, because I just don't see scum missing all that many votes.
The second is posted less than ten minutes after Barghast posts his first post about Tellan:
So anyways, we're in a situation here we don't normally get into - that of having missed a lot of lynches. Generally, yeah, it's bad for town to miss many lynches, but on the other hand it is REALLY bad for scum. Scum is absolutely vested in getting rid of town in as few nights as possible, both because it means less info from the thread itself and also because it's fewer nights for them to be found by a healer. Plus, in general, scum tend to be more involved in the game due to their role. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll post more, but they're more likely to be keeping track of it and not miss day timing out. So given that we've had many days with a lot of people not voting, I suggest that we may be able to narrow down the scum by looking at who did and didn't vote a lot.
[snip]
Let's count for each person the number of times they didn't vote by the end of the day, the number of times they voted on the biggest train and how many times they voted somewhere else:
missed vote/voted someone else/biggest train
Barghast - 2/1/3
Galain - 2/0/4
Alkend - 0/3/3
Korbas - 1/2/3
Tellan - 1/0/5
Trake - 2/1/3
Mockra - 2/2/2
Gait - 2/2/2
Eloth - 3/1/2
Okaros - 3/2/1
Anthras - 5/0/1
I don't really remember much from Tellan all game, but other than day 1 he's been voting on the biggest train every single day. Galain also surprised me with that high of a number, and one of his missed lynch counts was only a miss by a few minutes.
So when day resumes, I think we should be looking most closely at Tellan and Galain, as well as Korbas, because I just don't see scum missing all that many votes.
The second is posted less than ten minutes after Barghast posts his first post about Tellan:
It's a fairly shaky case based on people being around to vote, and in any other game this would not even be an issue.
Barghast, on 07 August 2013 - 02:06 PM, said:
This is Tellan up the end of the Cast lynch. I've skipped empty banter posts.
[snip]
[snip]
Okaros, on 07 August 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:
I'm pretty sure there's some mechanic in this game that I don't know and can't imagine, but that will explain everything afterwards... but until then I gotta just keep going forward. So in addition to the consideration of people's votes per day from above, I also want to consider night presence. In short:
Night 1 - no one dies
Night 2 - Desra+Liosan die
Night 3 (fast resolve) - Kalse vigged by Rashan
Night 4 (time out) - no one dies - Galain, Korbas, Tellan, Jalan posted during or just before night (Eloth, Gait, Jalan, Okaros all missed night and late day)
Night 5 (did not time out) - Hanas dies
Night 6 (time out) - no one dies (except Roldom modkilled) - everyone but Eloth posted during or just before night
Eloth is the only one that seems to have been absent both times that night timed out and resulted in no kills. Furthermore he only showed up for the first time about halfway through night 1, and night 1 ended not too long afterwards.
Does that explain everything? No, because obviously if he is a killer he had a NK in early for night 3 but it still didn't go through, and likewise for night 1, plus there's got to be a reason for the two deaths on night 2. But those could be explained by heals, vigs, castle mechanics or whatever. I'm not trying to give a concrete view of the whole picture, but the parts that do line up with Eloth being a killer fit very well.
For now
Vote Eloth
as I think this merits a deeper look.
Night 1 - no one dies
Night 2 - Desra+Liosan die
Night 3 (fast resolve) - Kalse vigged by Rashan
Night 4 (time out) - no one dies - Galain, Korbas, Tellan, Jalan posted during or just before night (Eloth, Gait, Jalan, Okaros all missed night and late day)
Night 5 (did not time out) - Hanas dies
Night 6 (time out) - no one dies (except Roldom modkilled) - everyone but Eloth posted during or just before night
Eloth is the only one that seems to have been absent both times that night timed out and resulted in no kills. Furthermore he only showed up for the first time about halfway through night 1, and night 1 ended not too long afterwards.
Does that explain everything? No, because obviously if he is a killer he had a NK in early for night 3 but it still didn't go through, and likewise for night 1, plus there's got to be a reason for the two deaths on night 2. But those could be explained by heals, vigs, castle mechanics or whatever. I'm not trying to give a concrete view of the whole picture, but the parts that do line up with Eloth being a killer fit very well.
For now
Vote Eloth
as I think this merits a deeper look.
and this case plus vote is even wonkier than the earlier case, based off people being around to leave provisionals. This is despite the fact that, as Eloth himself pointed out, any decent scum player would put in provisionals with PS before leaving. It also totally ignores the effect of any town roles on NAs.
Up until this point Okaros' posts have generally been well thought out and logical, so this deviation screams to me that he is trying to protect his partner.
Vote Okaros.
I'm now going to bed. I'll be back in 12 hours or so to discuss.
#1312
Gait
- Recruit
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- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 2
- Joined: 20-March 13
Posted 11 August 2013 - 03:05 PM
I can;t see a problem with PI-ing people. It means Probably Innocent, has a connotation of doubt in the name itself, means someone strikes you as town and it's just one step above "no read". It's something else than Very Probably Innocent or Certified Innocent. Those two are worrying - saying someone doesn't strike you as scummy is not. As for mixing 2 scum with 2 town - that's a whole better ratio than most have, even over the past three days - so I don't know why it sounds so condemning in your "case".
#1313
Korbas
- Recruit
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- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 2
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 11 August 2013 - 09:50 PM
Gait, on 11 August 2013 - 03:05 PM, said:
I can;t see a problem with PI-ing people. It means Probably Innocent, has a connotation of doubt in the name itself, means someone strikes you as town and it's just one step above "no read". It's something else than Very Probably Innocent or Certified Innocent. Those two are worrying - saying someone doesn't strike you as scummy is not. As for mixing 2 scum with 2 town - that's a whole better ratio than most have, even over the past three days - so I don't know why it sounds so condemning in your "case".
The problem I have with you PI-ing people is
1. It was super early in the game, no one had any indication of who was scum and who was not, and PI-ing anyone that early in the game can lead to not reading their posts with a critical enough eye.
2. Mockra and Tellan, as well as Okaros, appear on you PI lists fairly regularly, right up until Barghast suggests you could be the symp, at which point you immediately start distancing from all of them.
#1316
Alkend
- Lieutenant
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 110
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 12 August 2013 - 02:16 AM
Alkend, on 12 August 2013 - 02:01 AM, said:
Reporting in.
I'm real exhausted, but I'm not sure about Okaros. He's seemed a little sketchy, but he doesn't scream scum to me.
I'm real exhausted, but I'm not sure about Okaros. He's seemed a little sketchy, but he doesn't scream scum to me.
Yeah, looking over the posts, Gait seems like a more valid lynch. I'll be around to change, but for the moment, I'll
Vote Gait
#1317
Gnaw
- Recovering eating disordered addict of HHM
-
- Group: High House Mafia
- Posts: 5,966
- Joined: 16-June 12
Posted 12 August 2013 - 03:04 AM
It is Day 9. The clock has been frozen with 24 Hours and 59 Minutes remaining.
7 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, Gait, Galain, Korbas, Okaros, Trake
Updated only to say I have no idea whether Shin will be unfreezing today or I will be tomorrow. (I guess I should word that differently; iPad says it's noon and 90 in Tokyo so he's definitely not freezing.)
7 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, Gait, Galain, Korbas, Okaros, Trake
Updated only to say I have no idea whether Shin will be unfreezing today or I will be tomorrow. (I guess I should word that differently; iPad says it's noon and 90 in Tokyo so he's definitely not freezing.)
"Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom." - Viktor Frankl
#1318
Korbas
- Recruit
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- Group: Game alts
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- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 12 August 2013 - 04:47 AM
Alkend, on 12 August 2013 - 02:16 AM, said:
Alkend, on 12 August 2013 - 02:01 AM, said:
Reporting in.
I'm real exhausted, but I'm not sure about Okaros. He's seemed a little sketchy, but he doesn't scream scum to me.
I'm real exhausted, but I'm not sure about Okaros. He's seemed a little sketchy, but he doesn't scream scum to me.
Yeah, looking over the posts, Gait seems like a more valid lynch. I'll be around to change, but for the moment, I'll
Vote Gait
Except.... what is the point of lynching the symp? Unless you think he isn't, but then what evidence do you have?
Also, how do you so easily dismiss the fact that Okaros put out two cases both times Tellan was mentioned as scum?
#1319
Alkend
- Lieutenant
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- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 110
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 12 August 2013 - 05:35 AM
Korbas, on 12 August 2013 - 04:47 AM, said:
Alkend, on 12 August 2013 - 02:16 AM, said:
Alkend, on 12 August 2013 - 02:01 AM, said:
Reporting in.
I'm real exhausted, but I'm not sure about Okaros. He's seemed a little sketchy, but he doesn't scream scum to me.
I'm real exhausted, but I'm not sure about Okaros. He's seemed a little sketchy, but he doesn't scream scum to me.
Yeah, looking over the posts, Gait seems like a more valid lynch. I'll be around to change, but for the moment, I'll
Vote Gait
Except.... what is the point of lynching the symp? Unless you think he isn't, but then what evidence do you have?
Also, how do you so easily dismiss the fact that Okaros put out two cases both times Tellan was mentioned as scum?
The simple fact he's drawing attention to Tellan like that makes me think he wasn't aware of him being scum, though I could, of course, be wrong. It could be distancing.
#1320
Gait
- Recruit
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- Group: Game alts
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- Joined: 20-March 13
Posted 12 August 2013 - 07:32 AM
Korbas, on 11 August 2013 - 09:50 PM, said:
Gait, on 11 August 2013 - 03:05 PM, said:
I can;t see a problem with PI-ing people. It means Probably Innocent, has a connotation of doubt in the name itself, means someone strikes you as town and it's just one step above "no read". It's something else than Very Probably Innocent or Certified Innocent. Those two are worrying - saying someone doesn't strike you as scummy is not. As for mixing 2 scum with 2 town - that's a whole better ratio than most have, even over the past three days - so I don't know why it sounds so condemning in your "case".
The problem I have with you PI-ing people is
1. It was super early in the game, no one had any indication of who was scum and who was not, and PI-ing anyone that early in the game can lead to not reading their posts with a critical enough eye.
2. Mockra and Tellan, as well as Okaros, appear on you PI lists fairly regularly, right up until Barghast suggests you could be the symp, at which point you immediately start distancing from all of them.
Regarding 1: I would say that I am the one running that risk and that if I am aware of it, there's no harm. AKA: it's not your cup of tea as long as I am aware of it. Second, the fact that the contents of my PI list switches, shows I keep an eye open instead of being blinded.
Regarding 2: you are mistaken. There was no real heat on Tellan until after Barghast made his case on Tellan - and I was the first to switch to it. Secondly, what symp hangs out his master to dry? You state it is a valid scenario for a symp to betray his master, but:
1) winning conditions are tied to scum generals, meaning a symp of far less importance than a killer;
2) with the castle mechanic (I think we all accept that as gospel now), delivering a killer who aims at a castle is halving your killing capability, and that makes it an even worse move.
I will admit my game has been less than stellar and that there are some unfortunate discrepancies - it's wry and a bit of a pity that when I do gun for scum, I get it pegged to me as an act of scumminess.
All in all, if I am to hang for it to give clarity, fine, so be it. I am not going to fight it more than I have already, we can do without spats.
With two scum gone and Alkend's guard more or less acting as a find, I think we can afford to be wrong, so now;s a good time.
I just hope that when I CF "soldier of castle X" you guys will finally remember to read over Trake, instead of instantly accepting him as town. There has been no case on him whatsoever despite some deflection and a more than suspicious acceptance of Tellan's reveal.
Whether you do that before or after lynching me and/or a more common suspect, I don't really care.
Vote Trake
