[Atrahal]

Hood, on 05 June 2013 - 02:37 PM, said:

those low posting pricks

I'm letting you ride this out. Someone may take offence to your naughty ways. I ,on the other hand, enjoy your one liners.

[Desra]

Atrahal, on 05 June 2013 - 02:18 PM, said:

@cast I think



I voted Silchas by thinking he was trying to hide, keeping his post count middle of the pack, joke voting and not really engaging us in conversation, or pushing any of his own ideas out there. I went away, and when I checked back later I saw that day would time out when I was asleep. By then there where quite a few votes on Silchas, did Silchas defend? Not properly, why? Why was he disinterested in being lynched?



One theory was that he was protecting his master? That makes me look at Shadow. Yet he could have just been a disinterested townie.



I didn't look to much at Desra yesterday, but I did say both Shadow and he looked like they could be the symp. What makes me think Desra is a little scummy was his "no lynch" thoughts. That would be bad for town if we weren't to lynch. A symp would love a no lynch.



I have other thoughts but I am keeping them to myself for now, as they involve someone I haven't mentioned. I have my eye on him though.

Actually symps only love no lynches when the person being targeted is his scum master. Other then that symps usually want a lynch. I can tell you for a fact that when I am a symp I love lynches. I don't know where this idea that scum don't like lynches comes from. Not from any game that I have every played.

[Hood's Path]

of course you would say that

Were you offended that no one liked your idea of letting day time out and there was a last chance pile on of votes? That seemed somehow significant to me

[Atrahal]

Desra, on 05 June 2013 - 02:41 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 05 June 2013 - 02:18 PM, said:

@cast I think



I voted Silchas by thinking he was trying to hide, keeping his post count middle of the pack, joke voting and not really engaging us in conversation, or pushing any of his own ideas out there. I went away, and when I checked back later I saw that day would time out when I was asleep. By then there where quite a few votes on Silchas, did Silchas defend? Not properly, why? Why was he disinterested in being lynched?



One theory was that he was protecting his master? That makes me look at Shadow. Yet he could have just been a disinterested townie.



I didn't look to much at Desra yesterday, but I did say both Shadow and he looked like they could be the symp. What makes me think Desra is a little scummy was his "no lynch" thoughts. That would be bad for town if we weren't to lynch. A symp would love a no lynch.



I have other thoughts but I am keeping them to myself for now, as they involve someone I haven't mentioned. I have my eye on him though.

Actually symps only love no lynches when the person being targeted is his scum master. Other then that symps usually want a lynch. I can tell you for a fact that when I am a symp I love lynches. I don't know where this idea that scum don't like lynches comes from. Not from any game that I have every played.

So we'd be living day one today again with presumably less town. Of course a symp would want a no lynch, also in this game a killer wouldn't know if he was lynching his buddy. There are two reasons for not wanting to lynch. What a moron.

[Karatallid]

Egads, you people are dense.

1 - @Cast - I made it very clear during Day 1 that I thought if Silchas was scum, he'd be a symp, so would come back town. Today's comments were basically an I told you so, but let's not just assume he was a symp.

2 - A no-lynch yesterday would just have created a metric shit ton of WIFOM today, that's true, but in a game like this, where D-Day has potential to be really soon, it's probably for the best that town don't rush into lynches, specially with impending mod-kills. If I had been around when Desra suggested we not lynch because of the mod-kill, I would have agreed and removed my vote.

3 - The people who are jumping on the smallest things are doing town no favours. If you make the thread an unfavourable environment for posting, people aren't going to post. If you jump down someone's throat the moment they make a small inconsequential comment about nothing that just rubs you the wrong way, they're not going to go out of their way to make any sort of case. Instead of focusing in on one person, how about we take some time to look at the thread as a whole.

4 - I am on board with voting out a low-poster today. Skintick or Tiamatha would be my choices. Neither was done anything useful in their measly number of posts that I can see.

5 - Scum love lists, so I must be scum. Let's watch how many people use this as a be all end all reason to vote me out. I put it at 50/50 odds this post gets me voted out.

[Desra]

Atrahal, on 05 June 2013 - 02:49 PM, said:

So we'd be living day one today again with presumably less town. Of course a symp would want a no lynch, also in this game a killer wouldn't know if he was lynching his buddy. There are two reasons for not wanting to lynch. What a moron.

Lets talk about being a moron shall we.

No lynch with a modkill on the horizon and 2 potential night kills.

True seperate killers and the symp don't want to kill the other one or lynch the other one. But they also know that the symp is there to try to keep scum from being lynched. Not lynching just drags the game time out and increases the odds that scum is found out. So yeah scum want lynches.

The symp is the only one who knows who all members of scum are so he most definitely wants lynches unless they are one of his masters. Which is why Kara's train jumping is interesting because it almost looks like a symp who knows that either train would be good as neither on is on his master.

Why do you think that a symp wouldn't want a lynch? Because of the potential WIFOM? A lynch is that much closer to victory. A no lynch just allows scum to hide for another day. When I am a symp I always want to move closer to victory. I think that there are 60 or so M/P games that you should go back and read through. Find one where the symp hasn't wanted a town lynch.

[Desra]

Hood, on 05 June 2013 - 02:45 PM, said:

of course you would say that

Were you offended that no one liked your idea of letting day time out and there was a last chance pile on of votes? That seemed somehow significant to me

No not really. I still think that it was the smart thing to do any time you have the potential for more town loss then a normal day things should be looked at. But hey since there were no n/k's then town actually came out ahead.

Math for those who are retarded

Lynch + 2 kills = 3 town deaths.

Yesterday

mod kill + lynch = 2 town deaths


So town came out ahead.

[Karatallid]

Desra, on 05 June 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

Hood, on 05 June 2013 - 02:45 PM, said:

of course you would say that

Were you offended that no one liked your idea of letting day time out and there was a last chance pile on of votes? That seemed somehow significant to me

No not really. I still think that it was the smart thing to do any time you have the potential for more town loss then a normal day things should be looked at. But hey since there were no n/k's then town actually came out ahead.

Math for those who are retarded

Lynch + 2 kills = 3 town deaths.

Yesterday

mod kill + lynch = 2 town deaths


So town came out ahead.

Careful, Shadow gets really pissy when you use math skillz on thread. You must be scum, cause it's SO obvious to everyone what the maths is!

[Desra]

Atrahal, on 05 June 2013 - 02:49 PM, said:

So we'd be living day one today again with presumably less town. Of course a symp would want a no lynch, also in this game a killer wouldn't know if he was lynching his buddy. There are two reasons for not wanting to lynch. What a moron.

I don't think that we would be living day 1 all over again. The case on Silchas was pretty light and the majority of players who voted for him only said that they did so to get the lynch. There was a lot of information from yesterday that we are going to go over today that still would have been gone over regardless of a lynch.

[Desra]

Karatallid, on 05 June 2013 - 03:19 PM, said:

Desra, on 05 June 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

Hood, on 05 June 2013 - 02:45 PM, said:

of course you would say that

Were you offended that no one liked your idea of letting day time out and there was a last chance pile on of votes? That seemed somehow significant to me

No not really. I still think that it was the smart thing to do any time you have the potential for more town loss then a normal day things should be looked at. But hey since there were no n/k's then town actually came out ahead.

Math for those who are retarded

Lynch + 2 kills = 3 town deaths.

Yesterday

mod kill + lynch = 2 town deaths


So town came out ahead.

Careful, Shadow gets really pissy when you use math skillz on thread. You must be scum, cause it's SO obvious to everyone what the maths is!

If it was obvious then people wouldn't argue about it. Shadow can go deep throat a dick for all I care.

[Hood's Path]

Desra, on 05 June 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

Hood, on 05 June 2013 - 02:45 PM, said:

of course you would say that

Were you offended that no one liked your idea of letting day time out and there was a last chance pile on of votes? That seemed somehow significant to me

No not really. I still think that it was the smart thing to do any time you have the potential for more town loss then a normal day things should be looked at. But hey since there were no n/k's then town actually came out ahead.

Math for those who are retarded

Lynch + 2 kills = 3 town deaths.

Yesterday

mod kill + lynch = 2 town deaths


So town came out ahead.

well, I was alright with no lynch to be honest, the train on SR was composed of nothingness

I actually wanted a comment on the pile-on. It seemed to come from nowhere and I can't decide if it was good 'ol "must lynch for town sake" or scum thinking about not missing an easy lynch

[Atrahal]

Desra, on 05 June 2013 - 03:19 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 05 June 2013 - 02:49 PM, said:

So we'd be living day one today again with presumably less town. Of course a symp would want a no lynch, also in this game a killer wouldn't know if he was lynching his buddy. There are two reasons for not wanting to lynch. What a moron.

I don't think that we would be living day 1 all over again. The case on Silchas was pretty light and the majority of players who voted for him only said that they did so to get the lynch. There was a lot of information from yesterday that we are going to go over today that still would have been gone over regardless of a lynch.

Actually, I agree a symp that knows his masters would want a lynch of a non scum. So I see your reasoning of distrusting Kara for hopping around. By leaving out the lynch we are going to let night kills and mid kills settle the game for us, yes D day creeps closer if we lose to modkill and lynch and night kills but the mod kill gave us no information, the night kills are there for the benefit of scum to stir up wifom and cast suspicion. The lynch is the main thing we have to give us information. This game isn't all about the maths, if we play it that way then we wouldn't lynch any day until D day, statistically we'll have more town around. I understand your point but I disagree with it, unless you knew that Silchas would show up as town. It worked out for the better though. So no complaints hey?

[Hanas]

Gamelon said:

1370424736[/url]' post='1060302']
I'm here and thanks to the small amount of posts on thread caught up.
Will be on and off for some time.*








*I cannot care less about what happens on thread, but unfortunately I don't like to be mod-killed and ruin the game so I will post and hope you lynch me or I will get nked.

How would you being modkilled ruin the game?

[Hood's Path]

Hanas, on 05 June 2013 - 03:32 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 05 June 2013 - 09:32 AM, said:

I'm here and thanks to the small amount of posts on thread caught up.
Will be on and off for some time.*








*I cannot care less about what happens on thread, but unfortunately I don't like to be mod-killed and ruin the game so I will post and hope you lynch me or I will get nked.

How would you being modkilled ruin the game?

cause he's bringing the cookies and punch, this must be your first game

[Hanas]

Hood said:

1370446863[/url]' post='1060404']

Hanas said:

1370446373[/url]' post='1060399']

Gamelon said:

1370424736[/url]' post='1060302']
I'm here and thanks to the small amount of posts on thread caught up.
Will be on and off for some time.*








*I cannot care less about what happens on thread, but unfortunately I don't like to be mod-killed and ruin the game so I will post and hope you lynch me or I will get nked.

How would you being modkilled ruin the game?

cause he's bringing the cookies and punch, this must be your first game

The cake was a lie. Ever since, I've been hesitant to believe the refreshments actually exist.

[Korlat]

The votes on Silchas in the last few minutes of the day are potentially interesting. There had just been discussion about purposefully getting a no lynch because the modkill looked very likely (e.g. the Desra/HP post below). With Silchas subsequently removing his self-vote, that no lynch was looking a very strong possibility with just about 15 minutes of the day left, and three votes still needed.

Desra, on 04 June 2013 - 09:00 PM, said:

Hood, on 04 June 2013 - 08:50 PM, said:

so Desra, are you suggesting a no lynch, or just telling us it'll be ok if it happens?



EDIT: change "lo" to "no" typing fail

At this point with the modkill most likely. I am suggesting no lynch.

Then Shadow pops up, putting in a post which says "I am unaware of the latest discussion about intentionally getting a no lynch", and drops his vote.

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 09:54 PM, said:

Remove vote

Vote Silchas Ruin

For lynch, catching up now.

Barely over a minute later, Hanas follows that up to suddenly bring Silchas to L-1.

Hanas, on 04 June 2013 - 09:56 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 04 June 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:

I've seen the WIFOM shit too often. However, I'd rather keep playing than die obviously.

I'd rather not go through again.
Vote Silchas Ruin

Tholen and Shadow then post comments which egg on someone/anyone to hammer Silchas. Tholen does at least make a good point about having a train to analyse now.

Tholen, on 04 June 2013 - 09:59 PM, said:

While I agree with Desra that a no-lynch isn't the end of the world... we'll just be in the same boat tomorrow with no actual train to analyze, but who knows. Maybe the killers will take each other out .

That self-vote to self vote removal is...interesting. You state you are worried about WIFOM...and then you go and create it. Iirc there was a scum who wouldn't self vote last game, then self voted the next day and removed. Just sayin.

Shadow on the other hand is entirely dismissive of the idea, doesn't mention the high potential of the modkill bringing inno numbers down further.

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 10:01 PM, said:

Silchas, you're right about WIFOM.

No lynch doesn't benefit town here. It's not a total catastrophe either, but it's a poor start.

And then Galayn Lord hammers, with no real explanation of why (which, by the way, must be one of the closest hammer to day timeout I have ever seen!). That's three votes in the final 15-minute period with little explanation other than 'we need a lynch'. Something which, I should point out, I would almost always AGREE with, but this time around we had the modkill to think about as well, AND it seemed likely two kills in the night. As it is, we got very lucky that there were no deaths in the night.

I do have to again point out Tholen's point about at least having the train to analyse, which is something I would not be able to do had the lynch not gone through, so there may be nothing in this (and I'm certainly not suggesting that all three of the final voters are scum), but the end of that lynch does seem odd considering the prior discussion and how the day was panning out. So I wouldn't be surprised if there was one scum in that group of final three, and maybe Tholen also for egging it on a bit at the end.

[Atrahal]

Korlat, on 05 June 2013 - 04:11 PM, said:

The votes on Silchas in the last few minutes of the day are potentially interesting. There had just been discussion about purposefully getting a no lynch because the modkill looked very likely (e.g. the Desra/HP post below). With Silchas subsequently removing his self-vote, that no lynch was looking a very strong possibility with just about 15 minutes of the day left, and three votes still needed.

Desra, on 04 June 2013 - 09:00 PM, said:

Hood, on 04 June 2013 - 08:50 PM, said:

so Desra, are you suggesting a no lynch, or just telling us it'll be ok if it happens?



EDIT: change "lo" to "no" typing fail

At this point with the modkill most likely. I am suggesting no lynch.

Then Shadow pops up, putting in a post which says "I am unaware of the latest discussion about intentionally getting a no lynch", and drops his vote.

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 09:54 PM, said:

Remove vote

Vote Silchas Ruin

For lynch, catching up now.

Barely over a minute later, Hanas follows that up to suddenly bring Silchas to L-1.

Hanas, on 04 June 2013 - 09:56 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 04 June 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:

I've seen the WIFOM shit too often. However, I'd rather keep playing than die obviously.

I'd rather not go through again.
Vote Silchas Ruin

Tholen and Shadow then post comments which egg on someone/anyone to hammer Silchas. Tholen does at least make a good point about having a train to analyse now.

Tholen, on 04 June 2013 - 09:59 PM, said:

While I agree with Desra that a no-lynch isn't the end of the world... we'll just be in the same boat tomorrow with no actual train to analyze, but who knows. Maybe the killers will take each other out .

That self-vote to self vote removal is...interesting. You state you are worried about WIFOM...and then you go and create it. Iirc there was a scum who wouldn't self vote last game, then self voted the next day and removed. Just sayin.

Shadow on the other hand is entirely dismissive of the idea, doesn't mention the high potential of the modkill bringing inno numbers down further.

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 10:01 PM, said:

Silchas, you're right about WIFOM.

No lynch doesn't benefit town here. It's not a total catastrophe either, but it's a poor start.

And then Galayn Lord hammers, with no real explanation of why (which, by the way, must be one of the closest hammer to day timeout I have ever seen!). That's three votes in the final 15-minute period with little explanation other than 'we need a lynch'. Something which, I should point out, I would almost always AGREE with, but this time around we had the modkill to think about as well, AND it seemed likely two kills in the night. As it is, we got very lucky that there were no deaths in the night.

I do have to again point out Tholen's point about at least having the train to analyse, which is something I would not be able to do had the lynch not gone through, so there may be nothing in this (and I'm certainly not suggesting that all three of the final voters are scum), but the end of that lynch does seem odd considering the prior discussion and how the day was panning out. So I wouldn't be surprised if there was one scum in that group of final three, and maybe Tholen also for egging it on a bit at the end.

Someone mentioned that they had seen GL online. Then he hammers, let me check.

[Atrahal]

Exact posts as they happen. Is Shadow suggesting GL was lurking? Did GL hammer to look more like town, to avoid looking scummy because he was mentioned, to get a lynch, There is an 8 - 10 minute Gap between Shadow posting about GL and GL voting.

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 09:54 PM, said:

Remove vote

Vote Silchas Ruin

For lynch, catching up now.

Hanas, on 04 June 2013 - 09:56 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 04 June 2013 - 09:10 PM, said:

I've seen the WIFOM shit too often. However, I'd rather keep playing than die obviously.

I'd rather not go through again.
Vote Silchas Ruin

Path-Shaper, on 04 June 2013 - 09:57 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 14 minutes remaining

15 Players still alive: Atrahal, Cast, Desra, Galayn Lord, Gamelon, Hanas, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Korlat, Shadow, Silchas Ruin, Skintick, Tholen, Tiamatha, Venesara

8 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

7 Votes for Silchas Ruin ( Atrahal, Tholen, Karatallid, Tiamatha, Skintick, Shadow, Hanas )
1 Vote for Atrahal ( Cast )
1 Vote for Shadow ( Korlat )

Players not voted: Desra, Galayn Lord, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Silchas Ruin, Venesara

Tholen, on 04 June 2013 - 09:59 PM, said:

While I agree with Desra that a no-lynch isn't the end of the world... we'll just be in the same boat tomorrow with no actual train to analyze, but who knows. Maybe the killers will take each other out .

That self-vote to self vote removal is...interesting. You state you are worried about WIFOM...and then you go and create it. Iirc there was a scum who wouldn't self vote last game, then self voted the next day and removed. Just sayin.

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 10:01 PM, said:

Silchas, you're right about WIFOM.

No lynch doesn't benefit town here. It's not a total catastrophe either, but it's a poor start.

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 10:02 PM, said:

Noteworthy that GL was around.

Galayn Lord, on 04 June 2013 - 10:11 PM, said:

vote Ruin

Galayn Lord, on 04 June 2013 - 10:11 PM, said:

Shadow, on 04 June 2013 - 10:02 PM, said:

Noteworthy that GL was around.

I stil am, though afk. I don't see Ruin as scum, but town needs a lynch.

[Shadow]

Desra, on 05 June 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

Hood, on 05 June 2013 - 02:45 PM, said:

of course you would say that

Were you offended that no one liked your idea of letting day time out and there was a last chance pile on of votes? That seemed somehow significant to me

No not really. I still think that it was the smart thing to do any time you have the potential for more town loss then a normal day things should be looked at. But hey since there were no n/k's then town actually came out ahead.

Math for those who are retarded

Lynch + 2 kills = 3 town deaths.

Yesterday

mod kill + lynch = 2 town deaths


So town came out ahead.

Fine, let's play maths.

Modkill, no lynch, 2 Nks = 12 players day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 9 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 6 on day four, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 2 Nks = 11 players left on day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 8 players day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 5 players on day 4, scum win.

D-day remains the same. Maths wise, not lynching gives us one less lynch total in which to hit scum. Total number of innos is not the most important number here in my opinion.

Taking into account the no kills:

Modkill, no lynch, 0 Nks = 14 players day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 11 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 8 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 5 on day 4, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 0 Nks = 13 players day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 10 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 7 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 4 on day 4, scum win.

Again, D-day doesn't move, and not lynching gets us one less lynch total for the whole game.

The modkill does not affect D day, because sssuming 2 Nks, D-day is the same for 14 players as it is for 15.

Town comes out ahead from not having the kills. We gained an extra lynch from it. With 13 players, we can have 4 total lynches in the game, instead of three. This is the case regardless of the fact that we lynched. In fact, if we hadn't lynched, we would've thrown the extra lynch away.

All this assumes 2 NKs. Assuming 1 NK for completionism:

Modkill, no lynch, 1 Nk = 13 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 11 day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 9 day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 7 day 5.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 5 day 6, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 1 Nk = 12 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 10 day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 8 day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 6 day 5, scum win.

Notice we get the same number of total lynches.

And taking into account the no kills:

Modkill, no lynch, 0 Nk = 14 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 12 players day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 10 players day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 8 players day 5.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 6 players day 6, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 0 Nk = 13 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 11 players day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 9 players day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 7 players day 5.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 5 players day 6.

With the lack of Nks, we again gain a lynch - but again if we hadn't lynched we wouldn't have (we get 4 lynches with the no lynch, no NK, and also in the scenarios where we had Nks, as opposed to 5 in the scenario where we lynched and got no Nks).

[Karatallid]

Shadow, on 05 June 2013 - 04:39 PM, said:

Desra, on 05 June 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

Hood, on 05 June 2013 - 02:45 PM, said:

of course you would say that

Were you offended that no one liked your idea of letting day time out and there was a last chance pile on of votes? That seemed somehow significant to me

No not really. I still think that it was the smart thing to do any time you have the potential for more town loss then a normal day things should be looked at. But hey since there were no n/k's then town actually came out ahead.

Math for those who are retarded

Lynch + 2 kills = 3 town deaths.

Yesterday

mod kill + lynch = 2 town deaths


So town came out ahead.

Fine, let's play maths.

Modkill, no lynch, 2 Nks = 12 players day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 9 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 6 on day four, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 2 Nks = 11 players left on day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 8 players day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 5 players on day 4, scum win.

D-day remains the same. Maths wise, not lynching gives us one less lynch total in which to hit scum. Total number of innos is not the most important number here in my opinion.

Taking into account the no kills:

Modkill, no lynch, 0 Nks = 14 players day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 11 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 8 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 5 on day 4, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 0 Nks = 13 players day 2.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 10 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 7 on day 3.
Lynch and 2 Nks = 4 on day 4, scum win.

Again, D-day doesn't move, and not lynching gets us one less lynch total for the whole game.

The modkill does not affect D day, because sssuming 2 Nks, D-day is the same for 14 players as it is for 15.

Town comes out ahead from not having the kills. We gained an extra lynch from it. With 13 players, we can have 4 total lynches in the game, instead of three. This is the case regardless of the fact that we lynched. In fact, if we hadn't lynched, we would've thrown the extra lynch away.

All this assumes 2 NKs. Assuming 1 NK for completionism:

Modkill, no lynch, 1 Nk = 13 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 11 day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 9 day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 7 day 5.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 5 day 6, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 1 Nk = 12 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 10 day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 8 day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 6 day 5, scum win.

Notice we get the same number of total lynches.

And taking into account the no kills:

Modkill, no lynch, 0 Nk = 14 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 12 players day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 10 players day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 8 players day 5.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 6 players day 6, scum win.

Modkill, lynch, 0 Nk = 13 players day 2.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 11 players day 3.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 9 players day 4.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 7 players day 5.
Lynch, 1 Nk = 5 players day 6.

With the lack of Nks, we again gain a lynch - but again if we hadn't lynched we wouldn't have (we get 4 lynches with the no lynch, no NK, and also in the scenarios where we had Nks, as opposed to 5 in the scenario where we lynched and got no Nks).

You better be careful, Shadow, Shadow doesn't like it when you maths. You might think you're scum, and where will that lead you?