[Tattersail_]

D'rek you bitch!

Ha, well how does it work then. I go first against the ancient, I defeat him then you go against me, or do we both attack the ancient first together? My head is baffled.

Also what options do I have right now?

[Tattersail_]

D'rek you have only one hull per interceptor correct? If I hit you twice your ships are gone? Also my distortion shield comes into play doesn't it. So that works against your missiles?

How close will the fight be? Or should I give up now?

[D'rek]

Tattersail, on 04 February 2013 - 05:22 PM, said:

D'rek you bitch!

Ha, well how does it work then. I go first against the ancient, I defeat him then you go against me, or do we both attack the ancient first together? My head is baffled.

Also what options do I have right now?

You and me fight first (with you as "defender"), and the winner fights the ancient (damage is not repaired in between).

Options-wise, you've got at least 2 reactions you could do, possibly 3 depending on when twelve passes, I think. So you could try and build a ship, then move it in for a stronger fleet, but it might bankrupt you something awful. You can also just try and retreat from the battle as soon as it starts and hope your dreadnaught doesn't die if you want to keep it alive more than you want to try and fight.

[Imperial Historian]

The only slim sliver of hope I can see for everyone is that he doesn't have neutron bombs, since missiles can't destroy population, he's going to have a difficult time capturing systems from people until he does. But he has a strong enough economy that it is going to be very difficult for anyone to dislodge him from the centre.

[D'rek]

Tattersail, on 04 February 2013 - 05:24 PM, said:

D'rek you have only one hull per interceptor correct? If I hit you twice your ships are gone? Also my distortion shield comes into play doesn't it. So that works against your missiles?

How close will the fight be? Or should I give up now?

They are cruisers, so each of them has 2 HP. So you will need 4 hits total to kill them both.

I have no missiles, so distortion shield won't matter.

[D'rek]

Imperial Historian, on 04 February 2013 - 05:25 PM, said:

The only slim sliver of hope I can see for everyone is that he doesn't have neutron bombs, since missiles can't destroy population, he's going to have a difficult time capturing systems from people until he does. But he has a strong enough economy that it is going to be very difficult for anyone to dislodge him from the centre.

That and a lot of people have improved hull with good materials production, which is a strong counter to missiles. So, ie, EM could stack a ton of improved hull on ships, absorb the missiles and then wreak havoc on twelve. Alternatively, Khell has distortion shields and sentient hull, so he could probably take on twelve's missiles pretty well, too.

[twelve]

Imperial Historian, on 04 February 2013 - 05:07 PM, said:

Just take the galactic centre twelve and put us out of this suspense!

I fully plan on taking it but I messed up my the discounts on taking the plasma missles and gluon computers so I blew my extra money on getting the computers. I'll take it next round.

PASS

[Imperial Historian]

D, on 04 February 2013 - 05:24 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 04 February 2013 - 05:22 PM, said:

D'rek you bitch!

Ha, well how does it work then. I go first against the ancient, I defeat him then you go against me, or do we both attack the ancient first together? My head is baffled.

Also what options do I have right now?

You and me fight first (with you as "defender"), and the winner fights the ancient (damage is not repaired in between).

Options-wise, you've got at least 2 reactions you could do, possibly 3 depending on when twelve passes, I think. So you could try and build a ship, then move it in for a stronger fleet, but it might bankrupt you something awful. You can also just try and retreat from the battle as soon as it starts and hope your dreadnaught doesn't die if you want to keep it alive more than you want to try and fight.

I wouldn't retreat Tats, d'rek would have two shots at you with 4 dice, if she misses with all of her first 4 rolls, it might be worth it but the odds aren't great.

In terms of increasing your odds, I'd upgrade another improved hull (which would mean she'd require 4 hits to kill you) but you are already on the wrong side of bankruptcy, so it is a BIG risk.

[D'rek]

twelve, on 04 February 2013 - 05:30 PM, said:

Imperial Historian, on 04 February 2013 - 05:07 PM, said:

Just take the galactic centre twelve and put us out of this suspense!

I fully plan on taking it but I messed up my the discounts on taking the plasma missles and gluon computers so I blew my extra money on getting the computers. I'll take it next round.

PASS

OMG

There is still hope!!!

[D'rek]

Ok so the last few actions go like this:


twelve - research GC
IH - upgrade
drek - build
tatts - pass
twelve - upgrade
IH - pass
drek - move
tatts -
twelve - build
IH -
drek - pass
tatts -
twelve - pass


So Tatts has 2 possible reactions, if he wants them.

[Tattersail_]

Okay, are the chances slim that i'll survive the whole battle? I'm going to leave it the way it is for now.

So Pass. I have no resources to do anything.

[D'rek]

Tattersail, on 04 February 2013 - 05:32 PM, said:

Okay, are the chances slim that i'll survive the whole battle? I'm going to leave it the way it is for now.

So Pass. I have no resources to do anything.

noted!

(Duh duh duuuuuuuh)

[twelve]

Good luck Tats!!!

[D'rek]

Everyone has passed, so we move on to Combat Phase.

The only contested hex looks to be Vega.

Tatts - do you want to put any plans, as to whether you ever want to retreat or fight to the death? Or should we decide after each roll?

[Khellendros]

D, on 04 February 2013 - 05:15 PM, said:

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 February 2013 - 05:13 PM, said:

I've been evaluating scenarios (having had little experience with the game) using this tool.

https://docs.google....EzSHgyblE#gid=0

I figure it's fair everyone gets the benefit of it, esp the newer players like me that don't really know how combat works.

It's not a complete "likelihood of success" for a specific scenario, but it tells you the likeliheood of scoring 1,2,3,4, etc... hits given your dice number, computers and enemy shields.

Do the same for your enemy and it gives the likelihood of them scoring hits on you.

And then you can weigh your decision to attack based on the external factors like initiative, damage amounts, who does/doesn't have missiles, ship types and hull. All that good stuff.
https://docs.google....EzSHgyblE#gid=0

I've been using the one STD linked to in the last game: http://codesavior.co...e/simulator.php

Bah, that thing is infuriating. No matter which combination of two of the three ships I have near those two ancient cruisers I put into the simulation, I keep getting alternating win-loss-win-loss-win-loss results - so it tells me nothing! (other than it could go either way )

[Imperial Historian]

Tattersail, on 04 February 2013 - 05:32 PM, said:

Okay, are the chances slim that i'll survive the whole battle? I'm going to leave it the way it is for now.

So Pass. I have no resources to do anything.

Actually I wasn't looking closely at your money, you can afford to upgrade to improved hull (which would give you 50:50 odds roughly on surviving a retreat). Building and moving another dreadnought in would give you a chance to beat D'rek, but you would have to lose one of your systems.

[Imperial Historian]

Put in 100 simulations and you get rough percentages.

Khellendros, on 04 February 2013 - 05:36 PM, said:

D, on 04 February 2013 - 05:15 PM, said:

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 February 2013 - 05:13 PM, said:

I've been evaluating scenarios (having had little experience with the game) using this tool.

https://docs.google....EzSHgyblE#gid=0

I figure it's fair everyone gets the benefit of it, esp the newer players like me that don't really know how combat works.

It's not a complete "likelihood of success" for a specific scenario, but it tells you the likeliheood of scoring 1,2,3,4, etc... hits given your dice number, computers and enemy shields.

Do the same for your enemy and it gives the likelihood of them scoring hits on you.

And then you can weigh your decision to attack based on the external factors like initiative, damage amounts, who does/doesn't have missiles, ship types and hull. All that good stuff.
https://docs.google....EzSHgyblE#gid=0

I've been using the one STD linked to in the last game: http://codesavior.co...e/simulator.php

Bah, that thing is infuriating. No matter which combination of two of the three ships I have near those two ancient cruisers I put into the simulation, I keep getting alternating win-loss-win-loss-win-loss results - so it tells me nothing! (other than it could go either way )

[D'rek]

Khellendros, on 04 February 2013 - 05:36 PM, said:

D, on 04 February 2013 - 05:15 PM, said:

cerveza_fiesta, on 04 February 2013 - 05:13 PM, said:

I've been evaluating scenarios (having had little experience with the game) using this tool.

https://docs.google....EzSHgyblE#gid=0

I figure it's fair everyone gets the benefit of it, esp the newer players like me that don't really know how combat works.

It's not a complete "likelihood of success" for a specific scenario, but it tells you the likeliheood of scoring 1,2,3,4, etc... hits given your dice number, computers and enemy shields.

Do the same for your enemy and it gives the likelihood of them scoring hits on you.

And then you can weigh your decision to attack based on the external factors like initiative, damage amounts, who does/doesn't have missiles, ship types and hull. All that good stuff.
https://docs.google....EzSHgyblE#gid=0

I've been using the one STD linked to in the last game: http://codesavior.co...e/simulator.php

Bah, that thing is infuriating. No matter which combination of two of the three ships I have near those two ancient cruisers I put into the simulation, I keep getting alternating win-loss-win-loss-win-loss results - so it tells me nothing! (other than it could go either way )

Set it to run 100 battles (with "detailed output" unchecked!) and see what the W/L ratio is.

xpost - what IH said!

This post has been edited by D'rek: 04 February 2013 - 05:39 PM

[Khellendros]

Imperial Historian, on 04 February 2013 - 05:38 PM, said:

Put in 100 simulations and you get rough percentages.

I did and it literally keeps alternating loss-win, so 50%.

[Tattersail_]

To the death, then if you don't get it I'm coming for you. Next turn a fleet will attack you and I'LL ask Twelve if he would be so kind to do the same. Maybe he will.