[Tellan]

Looks like Khaliff's Palace is going to get real interesting pretty soon. And, might see some alliance offerings. Interesting considering I had pondered at the lack of them so far.

Looks like some big plans were laid and hatched using the break.

[Emurlahn]

Hypothesis: The person building up ND moved via hadj to the mirror to compete that quest Day 5. (I'm going to continue calling him Sauron because we are only assuming that it is Fener.) He did a second hadj to move back to ND taking all occupants of the mirror with him, Than did a sacro. Today, he moved solo to the mirror. Then used a hadj to get to the Palace. Assumption he did that to complete the

Quote

The Caravan's Tracks


Travel: travel to Ishktar Oasis
Scouting: use 3 Retainers
Travel: travel to the Square of Camels
Adventuring: use 2 Items for no effects
Travel: travel to The Mirror

The hadj gets him through the quest locations with the addition of the Palace.

That raises many questions. Was the Day 5 hadj from mirror to ND simply a way to get there? Was carrying mirror occupants to ND a goal or a side effect? And why solo from ND to the mirror and then start a hadj? That leaves Y exmirror occupants on ND, which is arguably a better spot than the Mirror; Sauron put up a slave camp, bazaar rights, and a place of worship. That's a lot of resources to leave others sitting on.


Sorry for the color. It won't turn black for me no matter what I try. bah.

[Ruse]

Emurlahn, on 26 November 2012 - 11:49 PM, said:

Hypothesis: The person building up ND moved via hadj to the mirror to compete that quest Day 5. (I'm going to continue calling him Sauron because we are only assuming that it is Fener.) He did a second hadj to move back to ND taking all occupants of the mirror with him, Than did a sacro. Today, he moved solo to the mirror. Then used a hadj to get to the Palace. Assumption he did that to complete the

Quote

The Caravan's Tracks


Travel: travel to Ishktar Oasis
Scouting: use 3 Retainers
Travel: travel to the Square of Camels
Adventuring: use 2 Items for no effects
Travel: travel to The Mirror

The hadj gets him through the quest locations with the addition of the Palace.

That raises many questions. Was the Day 5 hadj from mirror to ND simply a way to get there? Was carrying mirror occupants to ND a goal or a side effect? And why solo from ND to the mirror and then start a hadj? That leaves Y exmirror occupants on ND, which is arguably a better spot than the Mirror; Sauron put up a slave camp, bazaar rights, and a place of worship. That's a lot of resources to leave others sitting on.


Sorry for the color. It won't turn black for me no matter what I try. bah.

That wouldn't put this person through Ishktar Oasis though and they'd be doing the objectives out of order...

[Emurlahn]

Path-Shaper, on 26 November 2012 - 11:28 PM, said:

Once more, the balance in the Northern Desert shifted. The first Tumen of the Golden Standard arrived - nine thousand foreigners, tall and blond, burdened under extremely heavy armor, led by only a handful of the horse riders of the Clan. The waiting armies of the tribes descended upon them - and found that they faced a fight they hadn't prepared for. Expecting a battle of horseman versus horseman, of archer versus archer, a hundred thousand individual contests of aim and speed, instead they crashed upon an iron rock on which their arrows made very little impression. The one charge they tried was met by a wall of armor and pikes. Like the Khanate conquerors, the tribes eventually found the weakness: the supply trains. After three weeks of fighting, the Golden Standard army was reduced to a few hundred walking wounded, thirsty, tired men and women, nervous wrecks one and all. Their attackers were in little better shape: largely out of arrows, forced to dog the heels of the invaders and fighting with little honor, like jackals on the heels of a wounded lion, waiting for it to expire.

This time, the exodus from the Northern Desert consisted of men at arms, all looking to plead and beg with me for support, or to supervise an armastice, or looking to coin their newfound prestige. I ordered my executioner to sharpen his sword. He'd need it.

A Hadj has been declared, leading from the Northern Sands to the Khalif's Palace (day 6).
The route:

The Northern Deserts (day 6)
The Mirror (battle phase 6)
The Road to Ishktar Oasis (dusk phase 6)
The Square of the Camel (night phase 6)
The Palace of the Khalif (dawn phase 7)

What the fuck??? Apparently Sauron's abandoment didn't set well.

Hmm. Actually, maybe one of the people dragged to the ND from the mirror managed to slip back to the mirror without being noticed.

[Emurlahn]

Ruse, on 26 November 2012 - 11:52 PM, said:

That wouldn't put this person through Ishktar Oasis though and they'd be doing the objectives out of order...

you are right. back to square one.

[Ruse]

Emurlahn, on 26 November 2012 - 11:55 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 26 November 2012 - 11:28 PM, said:

Once more, the balance in the Northern Desert shifted. The first Tumen of the Golden Standard arrived - nine thousand foreigners, tall and blond, burdened under extremely heavy armor, led by only a handful of the horse riders of the Clan. The waiting armies of the tribes descended upon them - and found that they faced a fight they hadn't prepared for. Expecting a battle of horseman versus horseman, of archer versus archer, a hundred thousand individual contests of aim and speed, instead they crashed upon an iron rock on which their arrows made very little impression. The one charge they tried was met by a wall of armor and pikes. Like the Khanate conquerors, the tribes eventually found the weakness: the supply trains. After three weeks of fighting, the Golden Standard army was reduced to a few hundred walking wounded, thirsty, tired men and women, nervous wrecks one and all. Their attackers were in little better shape: largely out of arrows, forced to dog the heels of the invaders and fighting with little honor, like jackals on the heels of a wounded lion, waiting for it to expire.

This time, the exodus from the Northern Desert consisted of men at arms, all looking to plead and beg with me for support, or to supervise an armastice, or looking to coin their newfound prestige. I ordered my executioner to sharpen his sword. He'd need it.

A Hadj has been declared, leading from the Northern Sands to the Khalif's Palace (day 6).
The route:

The Northern Deserts (day 6)
The Mirror (battle phase 6)
The Road to Ishktar Oasis (dusk phase 6)
The Square of the Camel (night phase 6)
The Palace of the Khalif (dawn phase 7)

What the fuck??? Apparently Sauron's abandoment didn't set well.

Hmm. Actually, maybe one of the people dragged to the ND from the mirror managed to slip back to the mirror without being noticed.

Or someone else came to the mirror from elsewhere during the interim.

[Ruse]

I think the simplest explanation (not necessarily the right one but w/e) is that whoever is doing these Hadjs can't afford their usual move action costs and is doing Hadjs instead. ie a Nepeth guy might not have any chariots to move with and especially not the 8 necessary to go from the northern desert to the palace but he has 8 worship instead.

The funny but I sure hope not true explanation is it's a giant Khan conspiracy

[Tellan]

Why would it be a Khan conspiracy? A Khanspiracy? (Boo! Boo! I'm here all week!)

[Emurlahn]

@Fener You claim to not be the person I refer to as Sauron. And you claim that the 5 "cannot vote for Fener" messages (which are still in effect for those wanting to lynch Fener) are a frame job on you. It occurred to me a couple of days ago that you might actually be telling the truth and are restricted in some way about talking about something,

Care to comment?

[Atrahal]

Ok, so here are the various quotes from Ruse which makes me believe he is also Guild of Beggars. I noted also that before Karosis revealed, he and Ruse were having a bit of an argument over who to lynch after Tellan's non-lynch (with Karosis wanting to go for Emurlahn, and Ruse not wanting it). After Karosis reveals however, no more apparent disagreement between them.


Anyways, on we go:

Ruse, on 19 November 2012 - 02:20 AM, said:

The main question is whether it is repeatable or not. If it's a one-off then no biggie we can reconsider him tomorrow and all the days after.

Talking about Karosis and his avoid-a-lynch ability. Saying let's not bother testing it.

Ruse, on 19 November 2012 - 03:03 AM, said:

Tellan, on 19 November 2012 - 02:58 AM, said:

Ruse, on 19 November 2012 - 02:46 AM, said:

Tellan, on 19 November 2012 - 02:36 AM, said:

I assume he'll try to stay where it's Sacrosanct. Whether that continues to happen, on the other hand, is not within his control.

6 Worship every cycle doesn't seem sustainable but then again maybe it is if you're the pharoah or something. But presumably others will be clamoring to that tile as well. Hopefully not everyone there will be allied and they will bring him down for us then?

Possible. Outing your faction is a quick way to draw some heat, probably.

Exactly. Whether he really is or isn't GoB he's now a target to anyone who has animosity toward GoB or animosity towards whatever faction they think he is rather than just the usual unknown. Plus the lynch proof ability (which from the way he phrases it I think he was trying to make seem like his LP was different but that could be misdirection) may also be an indication that he has low CS instead.

So overall I ain't worried.

I've bolded the notable part in this conversation here. Ruse is saying because Karosis is out in the open, he's no thread and we should ignore him. Since when has that been a Mafia tactic after someone reveals?! No, no one suggests that unless they have some sort of vested interest in the other's survival.

Ruse, on 19 November 2012 - 05:18 AM, said:

Sorrit, on 19 November 2012 - 04:06 AM, said:

Ruse, on 19 November 2012 - 03:30 AM, said:

Sorrit, on 19 November 2012 - 03:25 AM, said:

So I've finally finished my read up and there is a ton of information out on the thread finally. Looks like we might start getting some culture hunts going with this next lynch no matter who it is.

Gotta actually lynch someone though!

I know. So what do you think of Karosis's claim that he can't be lynched? Do you think it's because he would also do the tile lynchproof as well or if it's a passive ablity of his role?

Well I'm sorta surprised he would say it so readily if he were on that tile with a GoB reveal. The general suspicion consensus on thread is that there are Nepeth on the Nepeth Empire tile (in particular Tellan) and that's the only LP tile today so far so why out yourself as GoB (whom the Nepeth would want to kill) in the same tile as them? That'd be really really stupid so IMO he's either bluffing or its a different kind of LP.

If it's another ability (so he's not bluffing) it may or may not only work for this one day. I see no harm in looking elsewhere today. If he really is in the Nepeth Empire he's got plenty of enemies down there who may kill him anyways (and he's guarded all cycle from P-S). If it's some ability we wait a day and it may not be easily re-usable by him the next day. If it's an ability that is easily re-usable or passive then waiting a day doesn't really harm us in the meantime. And if he's bluffing it again doesn't do much harm to wait a day (if he bluffs again we probably won't believe it a second time).

Again, bolded the most relevant bits. The second bold is what I think Ruse was afraid of - that Karosis might just be only bluffing, and therefore he sought to draw heat away from him.

Ruse, on 19 November 2012 - 05:38 AM, said:

Well anyways time to spice things up to get us out of the weekend funk. My basic summary upon re-read of the last few pages is this is the main happenings today with regards to the Karosis reveal and votes:

• Karosis wants to speed lynch Emu, votes Emu
• Amp votes Karosis
• Telas removes
• Karosis reveals GoB and says "A lynch will not be successful against me."
• Tulas votes Karosis
• Telas votes Karosis

The Tulas vote especially looks pretty blatantly like he is opposed to the GoBs and just hopped on Karosis without thought/subtlety.


And one last thought on Karosis' LP claim:

Quote

Groups within the Qadi:

Qadi: You have a lynch proof. If you die, you are revived after 3 full day+night phases since the moment you died, without the lynch proof, even if it was not yet consumed. Qadi's are Mages, Summoners and can use Scroll Items.

Just a possibility to keep in mind.

Now this is where I started getting really suspicious. Not just because Ruse tries to put the heat on others' - in this case Tulas - but because he starts intimating that Karosis might be Qadi rather than GoB, which I think can be considered far-fetched at best, and fearmongering at worst. Ruse is trying to add strength to Karosis' at this point unsubstantiated claim to be able to survive a lynch - thus again trying to draw us away from that particular lynch.

Sorrit, on 19 November 2012 - 03:45 PM, said:

You seem to be overly focused on getting the Qadi lynched of any the factions. I wonder why? Though this title quote you posted is a very good possibility of why Karosis could be lynch proof. But that also throws out his reveal and Amps accussation out the window entirely.

Does anyone else get the feeling that Amp has been trying to protect deflect from Tennes?

Just wanted to include this from Sorrit, showing that others were immediately suspicious of what Ruse was trying to do with that suggestion, and pointing out the flaws - though I do think Sorrit was on the wrong track. Nevertheless, right to be suspicious.

Ruse, on 19 November 2012 - 06:09 PM, said:

Allright let's get this over with then. So many votes on Karo I don't think it'll turn around though I do think this is just going to be another LP-no-lynch day..

Vote Karosis

Ruse eventually votes for Karosis - the 8th vote out of 9 needed. The "ok, I'll be on the inevitable lynch train in order to try and avoid being linked" vote.

Ruse, on 20 November 2012 - 02:53 PM, said:

So Fener got a teensy bit of pressure and that made him show up with the four most useless posts ever seen in a mafia game and then disappear again?


Vote Fener

Ruse is quickly out of the blocks the following day to find a different target altogether.

Karosis, on 20 November 2012 - 07:53 PM, said:

Ruse, on 20 November 2012 - 07:47 PM, said:

Karosis, on 20 November 2012 - 07:43 PM, said:

Atrahal, on 20 November 2012 - 07:23 PM, said:

Vote Karosis

Because that seems the course of action most likely to get the requisite number of votes for a lynch right now.

Voting Tellan would be just as likely to get 'the requisite number of votes for a lynch' as voting for me does.

No worries though, I'll simply note that someone bought 6 worship real fast on the bazaar this morning.

Lol oh that someone.

He certainly is crafty.

Can't help but share a nod and a wink with his fellow Guild member here. I'm not saying that Karosis knows if Ruse is with him, but it's Ruse who initiates the interaction.

Ruse, on 20 November 2012 - 08:00 PM, said:

So we can't lynch Fener. We won't be able to lynch Karo because he grabbed up all that worship.

Did Tellan already make the Nepeth Empire sacrosanct again today?

Making sure that it's hammered into people that it was Karosis who bought up all the worship - despite the fact that we only have Karosis' word that this was so (not an actual sacrosancting I believe).

Ruse, on 20 November 2012 - 08:10 PM, said:

Meh I don't care much about his location. If he is indeed a thief he probably doesn't mind moving around much (as opposed to say the Khans who probably want to camp out on the horse plains as much as possible) and so getting him to reveal his location won't do much good. I'd rather learn more from someone else so with that in mind.

Remove Vote
Vote Spite

because he hasn't done a damn thing on-thread all game as far as I'm concerned and as such is a complete cypher.

Plus he's a filthy low-poster.

And here's a final interesting post, for two reasons: 1) Ruse tries to dissuade people from forcing Karosis to use his supposed ability to Sacrosanct and reveal his location; 2) Finds another easy low-posting target to try and (very successfully) move votes on to.




So yes, I believe Ruse and Karosis are in the same faction. I genuinely regret the fact that I'm advocating a lynch of Ruse so soonish into the game, as he's clearly been very into the game, and that makes me feel bad. But, as they say, this is mafia.

I want to vote for one of these two. If Karosis really was buying up worship, that means he no longer his initial lynch-avoiding ability was a one-time thing. But yes, he could still have that worship. As for Ruse, I have no idea if he has any protection, and there's only one way to test it. Because of what I just said above about Ruse, I will start with:

Vote Karosis




Also, people should take note of PS' death post for Tennes. Tennes was the Ringfinger. PS hinted that this ability has now been passed on to another Guild member, which means one of them got a boost.

[Ruse]

Tellan, on 27 November 2012 - 12:01 AM, said:

Why would it be a Khan conspiracy? A Khanspiracy? (Boo! Boo! I'm here all week!)

Cause all these people will have to go through the road to ishktar where they have to pay the khan Bey

[Emurlahn]

Ruse, on 26 November 2012 - 11:59 PM, said:

I think the simplest explanation (not necessarily the right one but w/e) is that whoever is doing these Hadjs can't afford their usual move action costs and is doing Hadjs instead. ie a Nepeth guy might not have any chariots to move with and especially not the 8 necessary to go from the northern desert to the palace but he has 8 worship instead.

The funny but I sure hope not true explanation is it's a giant Khan conspiracy

Could be. But with 2 hadj called, somebody is stalking somebody.

[Atrahal]

I cannot believe that somebody is Hadjing from the Northern Desert to the Khalif's Palace without a way back planned too. There's too much stuff been built up over to be abandoned.

Also, another thing: Whoever Hadjed is potentially vulnerable to being lynched now. Say, for example, Fener has Hadjed from the Northern Desert - does he have the resources to avoid a lynch now?

[Ruse]

Heeeeyyyyyyy Atrahal finally posted his case!!!! Reading!

[Ruse]

Damn that's actually pretty good Atrah! Totally wrong but still very well crafted!

[Ruse]

Atrahal, on 27 November 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:

I cannot believe that somebody is Hadjing from the Northern Desert to the Khalif's Palace without a way back planned too. There's too much stuff been built up over to be abandoned.

Also, another thing: Whoever Hadjed is potentially vulnerable to being lynched now. Say, for example, Fener has Hadjed from the Northern Desert - does he have the resources to avoid a lynch now?

Good point! We have plenty of time to test things though the time it takes P-S to catch up to any sacrosancts might not leave us a ton of time afterwards. Worth a shot.

[Atrahal]

Ruse, on 27 November 2012 - 12:16 AM, said:

Damn that's actually pretty good Atrah! Totally wrong but still very well crafted!

Thanks very much! You'll forgive me if I remain sceptical though.

Here's where I stand right now:

- My number one favourite thing to do would be to lynch Karosis/Ruse, because I am either certain or strongly believe that they are not in my faction, and those are just about the only two I feel so strongly about. Preserving my personal faction is mine - and presumably everyone else's top priority, and this for me is the safest option, as I believe it is for the majority of players.

- My number two thing to do, if people don't go for that, is to try lynching Fener/Spite. Not because I think they're not in my faction - truthfully, I have no idea, the CF on Tennes for instance really threw me about some of the assumptions I had come to. But because it might be a successful lynch what with the Hadjing going on in locations where we last believed them to be.

[Emurlahn]

Atrahal, on 27 November 2012 - 12:02 AM, said:

Ok, so here are the various quotes from Ruse which makes me believe he is also Guild of Beggars.


And here's a final interesting post, for two reasons: 1) Ruse tries to dissuade people from forcing Karosis to use his supposed ability to Sacrosanct and reveal his location; 2) Finds another easy low-posting target to try and (very successfully) move votes on to.


So yes, I believe Ruse and Karosis are in the same faction. I genuinely regret the fact that I'm advocating a lynch of Ruse so soonish into the game, as he's clearly been very into the game, and that makes me feel bad. But, as they say, this is mafia.

I want to vote for one of these two. If Karosis really was buying up worship, that means he no longer his initial lynch-avoiding ability was a one-time thing. But yes, he could still have that worship. As for Ruse, I have no idea if he has any protection, and there's only one way to test it. Because of what I just said above about Ruse, I will start with:

Vote Karosis




Also, people should take note of PS' death post for Tennes. Tennes was the Ringfinger. PS hinted that this ability has now been passed on to another Guild member, which means one of them got a boost.

Hmm. You reach back into the first week where I wasn't paying any attention to the game. I had a different read on Ruse, but it's shaky for the same reason. But I would be up for a Karosis vote given the "reveal" and the Tennes CF. I could also be talked into a Spite vote; just to see where the sacro goes up.

[Emurlahn]

Tellan, on 26 November 2012 - 11:46 PM, said:

Looks like Khaliff's Palace is going to get real interesting pretty soon. And, might see some alliance offerings. Interesting considering I had pondered at the lack of them so far.

Looks like some big plans were laid and hatched using the break.

Reminds me of something you said much earlier this game: "You think I'm unprepared? I've waited a long time for this game." Something to that effect; I'm too annoyed (non-game related) right now to go look it up.

[Ruse]

Emurlahn, on 27 November 2012 - 12:23 AM, said:

Atrahal, on 27 November 2012 - 12:02 AM, said:

Ok, so here are the various quotes from Ruse which makes me believe he is also Guild of Beggars.


And here's a final interesting post, for two reasons: 1) Ruse tries to dissuade people from forcing Karosis to use his supposed ability to Sacrosanct and reveal his location; 2) Finds another easy low-posting target to try and (very successfully) move votes on to.


So yes, I believe Ruse and Karosis are in the same faction. I genuinely regret the fact that I'm advocating a lynch of Ruse so soonish into the game, as he's clearly been very into the game, and that makes me feel bad. But, as they say, this is mafia.

I want to vote for one of these two. If Karosis really was buying up worship, that means he no longer his initial lynch-avoiding ability was a one-time thing. But yes, he could still have that worship. As for Ruse, I have no idea if he has any protection, and there's only one way to test it. Because of what I just said above about Ruse, I will start with:

Vote Karosis




Also, people should take note of PS' death post for Tennes. Tennes was the Ringfinger. PS hinted that this ability has now been passed on to another Guild member, which means one of them got a boost.

Hmm. You reach back into the first week where I wasn't paying any attention to the game. I had a different read on Ruse, but it's shaky for the same reason. But I would be up for a Karosis vote given the "reveal" and the Tennes CF. I could also be talked into a Spite vote; just to see where the sacro goes up.

Yup! I definitely knew who else was on my team on day 2!