[Ruse]

What happened to the first Emur?

Is that Shelly?

EDIT: 2nd line

This post has been edited by Ruse: 11 July 2012 - 06:45 PM

[D'riss]

Rashan, on 11 July 2012 - 06:38 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:

I know, but it isn't unheard of that the FM leaves the CF of his new residence attached to the body he vacates.

But he CF'd with the same character name every time.

That I think could be a game mechanism. We know who person playing the FM is but it hides if he is scum jumping or if he is a good guy who is jumping into scum. There seem to be a lot of people moving in this game. If the FM is town then he might be able to locate and day kill scum. Then wait a bit and come back down. If he can't find scum the next day he goes back into SH. This continues until the next time he finds scum. Then he kills scum and goes back up into SH to wait for the next day. It works if you think that there are multiple FM. One is a scum and the other is a scum hunter.

[D'riss]

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

What happened to the first Emur?

Is that Shelly?

EDIT: 2nd line

Supposedly Eloth >>>>>>> Emurlahan >>>>>>>>>> Anomandaris (in SH) >>>>>>>> Shelly.


Really who the fuck knows. Who are you suppose to be again. The original Barghast before the FM took you over or the scum barghast the FM killed.

[Rashan]

But we've only had one FM strike, unless they both have the same name. This game is pretty complicated.

[Rashan]

Is there anyone Spreadsheet-savvy in here?

[D'riss]

Sheltatha Lore, on 11 July 2012 - 06:29 PM, said:

D, on 11 July 2012 - 05:53 PM, said:

Shelly I agree that the thread apathy for town is horrible in this game. I assume that is because the majority of town are in SH and not here.

I am not sure about the last part, as we haven't seen a great many CFs and we have all the switching happening.

We know that somewhere on day 1 at the very latest 1 scum was around to receive the Esper.
He has had 4 recruitment attempts if we go by night recruitment, which seems the safest bet. I know that there is a *claimed* guard.
With the current amount of people alive, if all recruitment succeeded and all cult was still alive, we'd be on D-day (majority + 1 = 5 + 1), going by 1 starting scum. Which, incidentally, is why your "lynch me next if I am wrong!" teaser as a leader to lynch Rashan is so damned suspicious. In WCS, if you are scum and Rashan is town, there will be no next day.

Now, how many CFs have we seen that give alignment? A whole lot less, and two of those were about the same person, the Eager Ninja.
If we check how many people have been switched to and fro, then we have a bigger list that could seriously affect distribution of town/scum ratio.
It isn't worse case scenario, but I think scum are likely to at the very most have parity on thread here, and aren't dominant in SH.
That gives both a good chance of the train being predominantly town (thus making it a lynch on the subject most town consider scum), and lynching scum, all in all.

If we're really, really, really lucky, it is a 2-3 spread over game thread/ SH meaning we're nowhere outnumbered nor being close to being outnumbered, yet. But that is very much BCS.

I am looking at this game as taking 3 weeks. Which means that we are only half way through. So I am not yet driving completely off of WCS numbers. It is in a couple of different scenarios that I have ran but not the main ones.

[D'riss]

Rashan, on 11 July 2012 - 06:49 PM, said:

But we've only had one FM strike, unless they both have the same name. This game is pretty complicated.

Tmdi 10.

Is this your first one?

[Rashan]

D, on 11 July 2012 - 06:54 PM, said:

Rashan, on 11 July 2012 - 06:49 PM, said:

But we've only had one FM strike, unless they both have the same name. This game is pretty complicated.

Tmdi 10.

Is this your first one?

The answer is not no. I think.

[Ruse]

D, on 11 July 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

What happened to the first Emur?

Is that Shelly?

EDIT: 2nd line

Supposedly Eloth >>>>>>> Emurlahan >>>>>>>>>> Anomandaris (in SH) >>>>>>>> Shelly.


Really who the fuck knows. Who are you suppose to be again. The original Barghast before the FM took you over or the scum barghast the FM killed.

I am the original Barghast, the only scum we've seen with Barghast's alt was the FM

[D'riss]

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 07:00 PM, said:

D, on 11 July 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

What happened to the first Emur?

Is that Shelly?

EDIT: 2nd line

Supposedly Eloth >>>>>>> Emurlahan >>>>>>>>>> Anomandaris (in SH) >>>>>>>> Shelly.


Really who the fuck knows. Who are you suppose to be again. The original Barghast before the FM took you over or the scum barghast the FM killed.

I am the original Barghast, the only scum we've seen with Barghast's alt was the FM

So Barghast >>>>>>>>>>>>> Ruse

Who is suppose to be in your alt in SH now the FM or the original Serc? When the FM jumped into you did you go into the Serc alt?

[Sheltatha Lore]

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:33 PM, said:

Sheltatha Lore, on 11 July 2012 - 06:29 PM, said:

D, on 11 July 2012 - 05:53 PM, said:

Shelly I agree that the thread apathy for town is horrible in this game. I assume that is because the majority of town are in SH and not here.

I am not sure about the last part, as we haven't seen a great many CFs and we have all the switching happening.

We know that somewhere on day 1 at the very latest 1 scum was around to receive the Esper.
He has had 4 recruitment attempts if we go by night recruitment, which seems the safest bet. I know that there is a *claimed* guard.
With the current amount of people alive, if all recruitment succeeded and all cult was still alive, we'd be on D-day (majority + 1 = 5 + 1), going by 1 starting scum. Which, incidentally, is why your "lynch me next if I am wrong!" teaser as a leader to lynch Rashan is so damned suspicious. In WCS, if you are scum and Rashan is town, there will be no next day.

Now, how many CFs have we seen that give alignment? A whole lot less, and two of those were about the same person, the Eager Ninja.
If we check how many people have been switched to and fro, then we have a bigger list that could seriously affect distribution of town/scum ratio.
It isn't worse case scenario, but I think scum are likely to at the very most have parity on thread here, and aren't dominant in SH.
That gives both a good chance of the train being predominantly town (thus making it a lynch on the subject most town consider scum), and lynching scum, all in all.

If we're really, really, really lucky, it is a 2-3 spread over game thread/ SH meaning we're nowhere outnumbered nor being close to being outnumbered, yet. But that is very much BCS.

Do you think it's possible that the FM is either independent or town aligned?

He won't be independent and I'd consider him to be most likely to be scum.

[Ruse]

D, on 11 July 2012 - 06:46 PM, said:

Rashan, on 11 July 2012 - 06:38 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:

I know, but it isn't unheard of that the FM leaves the CF of his new residence attached to the body he vacates.

But he CF'd with the same character name every time.

That I think could be a game mechanism. We know who person playing the FM is but it hides if he is scum jumping or if he is a good guy who is jumping into scum. There seem to be a lot of people moving in this game. If the FM is town then he might be able to locate and day kill scum. Then wait a bit and come back down. If he can't find scum the next day he goes back into SH. This continues until the next time he finds scum. Then he kills scum and goes back up into SH to wait for the next day. It works if you think that there are multiple FM. One is a scum and the other is a scum hunter.

Who came up with a multiple FM theory? - to contend with finding a friendly FM, not lynching them; finding the scum FM, lynching them, and worrying about a recruiting mechanism?

No wonder we have extra lives, it will take them all to figure out the mechanics

[Ruse]

D, on 11 July 2012 - 07:03 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 07:00 PM, said:

D, on 11 July 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

What happened to the first Emur?

Is that Shelly?

EDIT: 2nd line

Supposedly Eloth >>>>>>> Emurlahan >>>>>>>>>> Anomandaris (in SH) >>>>>>>> Shelly.


Really who the fuck knows. Who are you suppose to be again. The original Barghast before the FM took you over or the scum barghast the FM killed.

I am the original Barghast, the only scum we've seen with Barghast's alt was the FM

So Barghast >>>>>>>>>>>>> Ruse

Who is suppose to be in your alt in SH now the FM or the original Serc? When the FM jumped into you did you go into the Serc alt?

it was the FM when I left, no idea now that time has passed yes, I was sent to Serc alt in SH the night I got hit by FM (not killed but spiritually dispossessed was the way the scene read)

[Rashan]

Heh, the first three weeks of the game will probably be the time we need to comprehend the mechanics, and then the REAL game starts.

[D'riss]

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 07:05 PM, said:

D, on 11 July 2012 - 06:46 PM, said:

Rashan, on 11 July 2012 - 06:38 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:35 PM, said:

I know, but it isn't unheard of that the FM leaves the CF of his new residence attached to the body he vacates.

But he CF'd with the same character name every time.

That I think could be a game mechanism. We know who person playing the FM is but it hides if he is scum jumping or if he is a good guy who is jumping into scum. There seem to be a lot of people moving in this game. If the FM is town then he might be able to locate and day kill scum. Then wait a bit and come back down. If he can't find scum the next day he goes back into SH. This continues until the next time he finds scum. Then he kills scum and goes back up into SH to wait for the next day. It works if you think that there are multiple FM. One is a scum and the other is a scum hunter.

Who came up with a multiple FM theory? - to contend with finding a friendly FM, not lynching them; finding the scum FM, lynching them, and worrying about a recruiting mechanism?

No wonder we have extra lives, it will take them all to figure out the mechanics

Just something I have been pondering in the deep recesses of my mind as I have tried to figure out the reason that the FM didn't kill yesterday when he had killed every other day and why how people keep being tossed from one alt to another back to yet another then back. I thought what if someone can FM into alts (this happens we know it does) while their is someone else who is also doing that and hunting them. It is a neat idea and can only kill if they find scum. If not then they jump again. I know that Drek has spent a lot of time on this and it is a way to have the FM last longer then one or 2 jumps which is usually the case. The rapid shifting of alts is what lead my thinking down this path. Of course if this isn't the case then I will be making a game where it is. To good of a idea not to incorporate it.

[D'riss]

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 07:08 PM, said:

D, on 11 July 2012 - 07:03 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 07:00 PM, said:

D, on 11 July 2012 - 06:48 PM, said:

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 06:44 PM, said:

What happened to the first Emur?

Is that Shelly?

EDIT: 2nd line

Supposedly Eloth >>>>>>> Emurlahan >>>>>>>>>> Anomandaris (in SH) >>>>>>>> Shelly.


Really who the fuck knows. Who are you suppose to be again. The original Barghast before the FM took you over or the scum barghast the FM killed.

I am the original Barghast, the only scum we've seen with Barghast's alt was the FM

So Barghast >>>>>>>>>>>>> Ruse

Who is suppose to be in your alt in SH now the FM or the original Serc? When the FM jumped into you did you go into the Serc alt?

it was the FM when I left, no idea now that time has passed yes, I was sent to Serc alt in SH the night I got hit by FM (not killed but spiritually dispossessed was the way the scene read)

So you were Barghast >>>>>>>>> Serc >>>>>>>>>>> Ruse

Ok so then the FM started off as Fener >>>>>>> Serc >>>>>>>> Barghast since missing in action, I doubt that he is still in the barghast alt two days later. The question is who is in the barghast alt, and who is Tennes.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 18 hours and 45 minutes remaining
8 Players still alive: D'riss, Emurlahn, Rashan, Ruse, Sheltatha Lore, Telas, Tellan, Tennes

8 votes to lynch.

3 Votes for Tellan ( Sheltatha Lore, Emurlahn, Fener )
1 Vote for Rashan ( D'riss )
2 Votes for D'riss ( Telas, Rashan )

[Ruse]

guesstimate: whoever got evicted is in Barghast, Tennes could be the FM or a second alt that switched indicating another FM or a new weird mechanic

Has he even checked in today?

[Rashan]

TENNES? I didn't even know there WAS a Tennes. When did this bloke appear?

[Sheltatha Lore]

Ruse, on 11 July 2012 - 07:38 PM, said:

guesstimate: whoever got evicted is in Barghast, Tennes could be the FM or a second alt that switched indicating another FM or a new weird mechanic

Has he even checked in today?

Not yet.