[Path-Shaper]

At night you all lay awake, listening into the dark to see, if you can hear anything. But only Anthras heard something, but he will never tell anyone - can never tell anyone about it.

Anthras is dead. He was EmperorMagus and Innocent.

It is Day 4. 32 hours remaining

8 Players still alive: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Driss, Eloth, Fener, Karosis, Liosan, Omtose

5 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: Anomandaris, Atrahal, Driss, Eloth, Fener, Karosis, Liosan, Omtose

-Liz

[Fener]

Dammit all to heck! This is going really badly, no?

[Anomandaris]

Fuck.

WCS this is D day. We cannot rely on a healer or anything we need to get this right today.

We should have the weekend to have a good read through as well which is helpful. I am going to read through with a blank mind first. I've been too focused on Eloth rather than look for his partner or who else I think is scum.

[Anomandaris]

Fener, on 22 June 2012 - 10:08 AM, said:

Dammit all to heck! This is going really badly, no?

BCS we got a symp, WCS it's D day. We lynch wrong and they kill then it's game over.

[Atrahal]

I think I'm going to cry.

So we need to put all our cards on the table (NOT reveals, just thoughts). We need everyone participating, and we need to nail a scum today or lose if Anom's WCS is correct. We can't afford another quiet Day 3.

[Omtose]

I wonder what Liosan is going to do now, Amp was his only drum to bang on.

I think there are connections to be found amongst the votes and trains, so I'm going to do a full re-read sometime over the weekend as well. I recommend we don't rush to lynch anyone...

[Atrahal]

Liosan, on 22 June 2012 - 07:00 AM, said:

karosis - unlikely to be a killer given the vocal nature of his play, has basically symped half the remaining players at one time or another by either strangely worded votes or following onto trains. Seems kinda grasping with his defence, which is very verbose. Would be hard to decipher the wealth of info to find useful stuff regardless if they come back scum or town.

So first, thoughts on Karo. What I was really hoping for yesterday was some more analysis by people, looking at Karo's responses and saying, hmmm definitely scum, or hmmm definitely inno. Liosan delievered and I agree with his conclusion. Unless someone can find something more convincing on him, I'll leave him be for today.

[Atrahal]

Omtose, on 22 June 2012 - 11:11 AM, said:

I wonder what Liosan is going to do now, Amp was his only drum to bang on.

I think there are connections to be found amongst the votes and trains, so I'm going to do a full re-read sometime over the weekend as well. I recommend we don't rush to lynch anyone...

Agreed. And again, we need comments from everyone. Need to see who looks at who cross-eyed. We have a lot of possible leads, but not enough info yet. As you said, we have a weekend now too.

[Omtose]

Atrahal, on 22 June 2012 - 11:17 AM, said:

Liosan, on 22 June 2012 - 07:00 AM, said:

karosis - unlikely to be a killer given the vocal nature of his play, has basically symped half the remaining players at one time or another by either strangely worded votes or following onto trains. Seems kinda grasping with his defence, which is very verbose. Would be hard to decipher the wealth of info to find useful stuff regardless if they come back scum or town.

So first, thoughts on Karo. What I was really hoping for yesterday was some more analysis by people, looking at Karo's responses and saying, hmmm definitely scum, or hmmm definitely inno. Liosan delievered and I agree with his conclusion. Unless someone can find something more convincing on him, I'll leave him be for today.

I agree with Karosis maybe not providing much information on someone else.

However, I disagree that symping everyone and voting everyone (as well as a over the top verbose defense) should be construed as not scummy. I think that would be a great way for scum to hide. (and hid who he was connected to)

[Karosis]

Wow, I honestly didn't expect to survive another night.

Alright, well, my suspicion now goes to D'riss and Anomandaris. They're the only two who haven't made any big waves, which is great scum play.

I figure the lynch is gonna come my way, so seeing as D Day is either today or next day, I'm just going to reveal right away. I am the healer. The night there was no kill, I healed Atrahal, so Atrahal is the townie that was targetted. That doesn't discount his possibly being a symp, but he's definitely not scum. On Night 1 I healed Ano, and on Night 3 I healed Eloth.

[Atrahal]

Karosis, on 22 June 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

Wow, I honestly didn't expect to survive another night.

Alright, well, my suspicion now goes to D'riss and Anomandaris. They're the only two who haven't made any big waves, which is great scum play.

I figure the lynch is gonna come my way, so seeing as D Day is either today or next day, I'm just going to reveal right away. I am the healer. The night there was no kill, I healed Atrahal, so Atrahal is the townie that was targetted. That doesn't discount his possibly being a symp, but he's definitely not scum. On Night 1 I healed Ano, and on Night 3 I healed Eloth.

Yeah, I noticed you implying that a little earlier, which is also why I backed off. Didn't want to say anything though...

[Karosis]

Atrahal, on 22 June 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

Karosis, on 22 June 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

Wow, I honestly didn't expect to survive another night.

Alright, well, my suspicion now goes to D'riss and Anomandaris. They're the only two who haven't made any big waves, which is great scum play.

I figure the lynch is gonna come my way, so seeing as D Day is either today or next day, I'm just going to reveal right away. I am the healer. The night there was no kill, I healed Atrahal, so Atrahal is the townie that was targetted. That doesn't discount his possibly being a symp, but he's definitely not scum. On Night 1 I healed Ano, and on Night 3 I healed Eloth.

Yeah, I noticed you implying that a little earlier, which is also why I backed off. Didn't want to say anything though...

I figure this way we can concentrate on people who are not definitely town. Sure, it means that scum will almost definitely NK me during Night, but that also means that two people are, or should be, dropped off the scumdar. I hope everyone uses this information wisely! I have to get to work, but while I am there I am going to spend some time looking at D'riss and Anomandaris, maybe Liosan.


Edit: changed definitely not to not definitely in first sentence

This post has been edited by Karosis: 22 June 2012 - 12:34 PM

[Anomandaris]

Hath-Daper, on 22 June 2012 - 09:35 AM, said:

It is Day 3. 28 minutes remaining

1 Vote for Eloth ( Anthras )
2 Votes for Karosis ( Ampelas, Atrahal )
6 Votes for Ampelas ( Karosis, Driss, Liosan, Fener, Omtose, Anomandaris )

First off i'm glad we lynched Amp over you but I would have preferred Eloth. I also only at most got a symp vibe from you rather than killer. @Karosis

Atrahal, on 22 June 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

Karosis, on 22 June 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

Wow, I honestly didn't expect to survive another night.

Alright, well, my suspicion now goes to D'riss and Anomandaris. They're the only two who haven't made any big waves, which is great scum play.

I figure the lynch is gonna come my way, so seeing as D Day is either today or next day, I'm just going to reveal right away. I am the healer. The night there was no kill, I healed Atrahal, so Atrahal is the townie that was targetted. That doesn't discount his possibly being a symp, but he's definitely not scum. On Night 1 I healed Ano, and on Night 3 I healed Eloth.

Yeah, I noticed you implying that a little earlier, which is also why I backed off. Didn't want to say anything though...

Second. I don't know whether to believe your reveal 100% as this is D day and there is no finder left. 70/30 in your favour though. Why did you heal us three then? Especially Eloth?

Third. Atrahal when did you back off? You left your vote on him, it was >< this close a thing between Karo and Amp. Karo has only just posted so you've lost me a little here.

The only thing that goes in your favour is Karo saying he healed you the night there was no kill

[Liosan]

Karosis, on 22 June 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

Wow, I honestly didn't expect to survive another night.

Alright, well, my suspicion now goes to D'riss and Anomandaris. They're the only two who haven't made any big waves, which is great scum play.

I figure the lynch is gonna come my way, so seeing as D Day is either today or next day, I'm just going to reveal right away. I am the healer. The night there was no kill, I healed Atrahal, so Atrahal is the townie that was targetted. That doesn't discount his possibly being a symp, but he's definitely not scum. On Night 1 I healed Ano, and on Night 3 I healed Eloth.

Actually surprised by the result of the lynch, dont know why khell didnt play more, and why their 'defence' was so non existant. Anthras as well was an odd choice of night kill, I suppose the killers are going for people who are getting no flak as then they dont need to waste energy trying to get them lynch.

@karosis - Its probably dday so I can understand the reveal, I thought out of everyone on the block yesterday that you seemed most likely to be scum, but a symp rather than a killer, I guess it was that you had an inno role instead which was making you play that way. Much as korbas on day 1 was caught with attention for the same reason.

@omtose - I think theres still eloth to look at, though personally i dont think the case was that strong. Fener has sort of disappeared from everyones notice for a few days, and then theres ano, who started the lynch on day 1 on korbas and has been very middle of the road since, waiting for the easy vote to jump on lynch trains rather than pushing a case. A few times it has been like he is parroting other players rather than making any actual cases on people, but the same can be said about a few people.

If karosis is telling the truth then atrahal was a night kill target, so would be useful to look at who they were suspicious of on day 2. think i might look at the voting patterns and see if there is any evidence of people following others onto trains. we should try to use the day to its fullest rather than rush into anything.

[Liosan]

Path-Shaper, on 19 June 2012 - 05:16 PM, said:

Korbas is dead. He was Retired Talon and finder(town)


It is Day 1. 1 hour and 13 minutes remaining

13 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, Driss, Eloth, Fener, Karosis, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Omtose

7 votes to lynch, 7 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Ampelas ( Fener )
1 Vote for Anomandaris ( Ampelas )
4 Votes for Korvalain ( Omtose, Driss, Korbas, Anthras )
7 Votes for Korbas ( Anomandaris, Korvalain, Meanas, Eloth, Atrahal, Liosan, Karosis (possible healer) )

Path-Shaper, on 21 June 2012 - 01:50 AM, said:

11 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, Driss, Eloth, Fener, Karosis, Korvalain, Liosan, Omtose

6 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Ampelas ( Liosan, Karosis (possible healer))
1 Vote for Omtose ( Eloth )
6 Votes for Korvalain ( Omtose, Driss, Anomandaris, Fener, Anthras, Korvalain )

Players not voted: Ampelas, Atrahal

Path-Shaper, on 22 June 2012 - 09:35 AM, said:

10 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, Driss, Eloth, Fener, Karosis, Liosan, Omtose

6 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Eloth ( Anthras )
2 Votes for Karosis ( Ampelas, Atrahal )
6 Votes for Ampelas ( Karosis (possible healer), Driss, Liosan, Fener, Omtose, Anomandaris )

Players not voted: Eloth

meanas and anthras died night 1 and 3 respectively.


Ok lets look at the three successful trains first

7 Votes for Korbas ( Anomandaris, Korvalain, Meanas, Eloth, Atrahal, Liosan, Karosis (possible healer) ) *fener voted korbas after the fact
6 Votes for Korvalain ( Omtose, Driss, Anomandaris, Fener, Anthras, Korvalain ) *karosis voted korv after the fact
6 Votes for Ampelas ( Karosis (possible healer), Driss, Liosan, Fener, Omtose, Anomandaris )

Ok first thing that stands out is anomadaris is on every train, the only player who has been on them all successfully as both fener and karosis made attempts to be on all three with their late voting.
Atrahal and eloth have only been on one successful lynch.
omtose, driss and fener are on both the day 2 and day 3 trains, and they didnt not join in any particular order both days.
I was on two trains, the only player who matches my voting pattern is karosis.


edit to change korv to korbas in the sentence fener voted korv korbas after the fact

This post has been edited by Liosan: 22 June 2012 - 01:28 PM

[Liosan]

Ok as karosis claims atrahal was the night 2 nk target, i am going to quote the posts from atrahal day 2 which probably were the reason for his targetting. Its slightly wifom to guess this, but you pretty much categorises everyone so its probably a good place to look.

Atrahal, on 19 June 2012 - 11:39 PM, said:

I really do think we were onto some things on day 1. I would point out that we did pick up on genuine aberrant game play, unfortunately the result of RT being a very nervous finder.

So thought experiment. What is the scum MO for day 1?

This is what I'm trying to work through at the moment. If you are paired scum, you have a partner who has your back and you know there is at least one other person, a faithful symp, who knows who you and your partner are and will either follow your lead or protect you by diverting attention. With this in mind, what level of confidence would we expect in scum at the start of the game, when everything is tentative and several RIs are prone to misbehaving for various reasons (such as getting a reaction like Khells or just having fun with things like dragonsecks)?

This is where the middle-posting theory comes in, which is just that, a theory. Scum don't want to stand out too much, and mafia players are prone to lynch someone who is too crazy out of sheer annoyance. So I wouldn't expect scum to stand out too much. And low posters are a wild card, but Day 2 often shows who remains a low poster and who was waiting for material to analyze (e.g. Amp).

So currently, my middling pool of suspects includes Eloth, D'riss, and Omtose.

Eloth is suspect in my books for his vote for Omtose and prompt retraction of said vote to go with the lynch train. That and his stated willingness to switch votes to get a lynch. Helpful, and also potentially indicative of knowing both suspects are RI, and either dead would do just fine for scum.

D'riss is playing a fine game, one which I feel resonance with. Challenging people's accusations, trying to think outside the box, and not accepting things at face value. The only problem here is that this is exactly how I would play as scum...

Omtose, one of my primary issues with him is his unquestioning acceptance of the case on Korv (doesn't care? knew he was inno anyways). To quote "That's as good as it gets on Day 1. Why not?" This and his defense of Korb (easy to defend someone when you know they are inno) send up red flags. He's not playing badly, it's that he is playing exactly how we'd expect a day 1 townie to play (unsure, helpful, and easily swayed by poor cases because it doesn't matter on day one anyways )

Vote Omtose

Points out three main suspects as eloth, driss and omtose

Atrahal, on 19 June 2012 - 11:53 PM, said:

Omtose, on 19 June 2012 - 11:37 PM, said:

For those of you who are saying the omtose case has merit or is good or whatever, would you please elaborate as to why?


Elaborating on your assertion would be good for two reasons.

1) It will help you to sound out your thinking and prove that you aren't being a sheeple.

2) You will immediately become aware of the following :



2 reasons why the Omtose case makes no sense.

1) It is predicated on the idea that I was being smooth and non-confrontational. If you actually look at my play, especially in relation to the play of others, you will realzie this is a completely made up falsehood.

2) It also is based on me steering the lynch away from Korbas. OMG! I didn't vote for the town finder! LYNCH ME NOU! In reality, I did what any normal mafia player does - I looked at two weak day 1 cases and decided one had more merit than the other. It aint rocket science.


That's all I'm going to say about the subject. I'm giong to do a re-read and see if anyone else jumps out at me. I'm at work though, so don't expect it immediately.

But you see Omtose, this is exactly your sticky situation.

From my point of view, people like Fener (completely off on his own having fun stirring up trouble), Liosan (very confrontational not really playing with the rest of the team), and Anthras (practically begging for a lynch, to the point of it being embarrassing) drop lower in my suspect pool because they are doing things that are considered very scummy, and risking their hides as a result. In my experience, only the really clever roled players or the uninhibited RIs tend to act like this.

You are playing smooth compared to these, correct? Am I wrong in saying you are acting helpful, demonstrating open doubt in lynch trains even so far as to say that someone is probably inno, but you'll vote to push through the lynch anyways?

Look at it another way: Liosan, Fener, and Amp all stayed off the lynch train till the bitter end, holding onto their pet theories. This doesn't exclude them from being scum, but I'll bet you dollars to pounds that scum is more likely on the trains than on the single cases (hence my suspicion of Eloth).

Anyways, this continues to be stream of consciousness, dangerous but I think well worth the effort. And please, argue back. Harrumps like Korv do no one any good

discounts ampelas (confirmed inn), fener and myself.

Atrahal, on 20 June 2012 - 02:19 AM, said:

Omtose, on 19 June 2012 - 10:24 PM, said:

To recap, Karosis voted and put Korv at 5 votes, while Korbas was at 3.

Eloth votes for me, and then "because he wants a lynch" switches to Korbas making it 5 to 4.

Atrahal is the swing vote, and he references me as perhaps protecting Korbas. Korbas himself then comes on and does the sensible thing of voting Korv, making it 5 to 5 since Atrahal was voting for Korv initially.

Then Liosan votes Korbas, putting Korbas ahead.

Karosis hammers.


Looking at this, Eloth does two things -

He is the one who starts the swing from Korv to Korbas. In doing so, he attacks me (an early Korv voter) and essentially sets me up as his Day 2 lynch choice, which he has followed up on with his vote today. Also notice, that Eloth disappears after the vote swings and doesn't comment again until the next day begins. He never really offered an opinion on Korv, except to say "he'd be willing to switch for a lynch" which tells us nothing.

Atrahal was the real swing vote by removing from Korv to vote for Korbas, so that bears keeping in mind as well.

k, one more thing before bed. Just wanted to try to answer my own questions. Strictly by vote movement, I would say Karosis, myself, and Eloth are the suspect ones.

Karosis drives the vote any way you slice it, creating enough of a gap between Korbas and Korv initially to push the Korv train into L-2. However, Karosis also just hammers Korb in the end. Makes me think neither of them would be a partner to Karo should he be scum.

Eloth's vote switch is suspicious, I agree. Also, giving the Korb train another push to try and out run the Korv train is very suspect.

And finally, I do reverse the momentum with my move from Korv to Korb, esp. with additional quotes to nail down my reasoning.

So far just repeating what you've said, but here is where the analysis comes in. Let's say that one of our suspects is scum (symp or killer) and Korv is one of the killers.

Karo's behavior makes no sense in that context, seeing that he nearly drives Korv into the grave.

Eloth could be suspicious in redirection, and the random vote on Omtose could be a ploy to create a little more distance. Definitely keeping Eloth on the table.

Likewise, I switch votes after a long absence, which could be construed at initially voting Korv as distancing followed by realization I put him in hot water and trying to scramble (however, this also is a stretch considering that I made a case on Korv, which would be stupid for scum).


So Eloth is very suspect based on voting patterns. I would ask Eloth why Korb and not Korv considering both cases had their weak points. Moreover, you acknowledged this Eloth when you said you would switch your vote as needed between the two.

reiterates that eloth is suspect, while also pointing toward karosis (possible healer).


so looking at our remaining players and assuming that if karosis is telling the truth, atrahal is also PI we have.

Anomandaris, -not mentioned by atrahal
Driss, -named suspect in first post
Eloth, -named suspect twice
Fener, - called less suspect
Liosan, - called less suspect
Omtose - voted for after being named suspect.

[Karosis]

Anomandaris, on 22 June 2012 - 12:38 PM, said:

Second. I don't know whether to believe your reveal 100% as this is D day and there is no finder left. 70/30 in your favour though. Why did you heal us three then? Especially Eloth?

Third. Atrahal when did you back off? You left your vote on him, it was >< this close a thing between Karo and Amp. Karo has only just posted so you've lost me a little here.

The only thing that goes in your favour is Karo saying he healed you the night there was no kill

Night one, I chose Anomandaris because he seemed to be making the most sense, giving off the least scummy vibes.

I debated really hard between him and Meanas, as I figured the big argument would work against me if Meanas got NK'd, but decided I'd rather not have the possibility of Meanas and I continuing to argue and cause waves until one of us was lynched or NK'd. Anomandaris seemed a decent secondary choice.

Night two, I chose Atrahal because he had spent some time making some pretty detailed cases against a couple of people. I figured if the killers went after him (which they did) we could look at the people he was checking out on Day 2.

Night three, I chose Eloth. Honestly, I had no idea who to heal last night. I went with Eloth cause I figured it would look bad if he got NK'd after Atrahal, and a couple of others, spent the day trying to link him to me as my symp. Alas, Anthras was my choice at the very beginning of the day, and again I should have gone with instinct. Oh well, at least I got one of them right!

[Liosan]

Looking at it, the attempt on atrahal would have put more pressure on eloth more than anyone, with omtose and driss a close second on suspicion. Would have cleared me and fener a bit, of course you could look at it the other way and assume either or both of us tried to kill atrahal to clear ourselves or other players not mentioned by atrahal. assuming scum didnt get it toally wrong and atrahal is towna nd not a symp, we have six players and three scum amongst them.

Anomandaris, -on every train, came up with the korbas case which brought about their lynch, but hasnt really made their own case since, rather joining middl or late ont he next two trains
Driss, - missed first train, but on second and thirdd with fener and omtose, named as a suspect by atrahal above on day when karosis says atrahal was targetted.
Eloth, - hasnt been on a train since day 1, been in the firing line all game, not sure if a successful night kill of atrahal would have saved or damned him, but it would certainly of caused a lot of discussion.
Fener, - has been discussed as very free with the votes, was almost on all three lynches, but for timing on day 1. Jumped around yesterday, and was sort of cleared by the atrahal post above.
Liosan, - its me!!!
Omtose - has been subject to a few votes and cases, ampelas voted him, then suddenly swapped to follow at the end. On last two trains along side driss and fener.

Out of all the players remaining eloth and ano are sitting with little or no connection to any players remaining. ano hasnt had any real pressure either all game, while eloth is the subject of quite a few votes.
You could say i followed fener onto the amp case a few days ago, but we have both posted our cases regarding him and we werenton the korv lynch together. fener is also linked by voting to driss and omtose, but not really by suspicion.

Personally i thinkits either driss and omtose, or ano /eloth / fener and they have done a great job of distancing each from other.

If atrahal is the symp that would make fener best target for scum, alongside ano whom he didnt mention.

Thoughts?

[Liosan]

We should also look at Anthras, it might help us narrow down our options

[Karosis]

Liosan, on 22 June 2012 - 01:57 PM, said:

Looking at it, the attempt on atrahal would have put more pressure on eloth more than anyone, with omtose and driss a close second on suspicion. Would have cleared me and fener a bit, of course you could look at it the other way and assume either or both of us tried to kill atrahal to clear ourselves or other players not mentioned by atrahal. assuming scum didnt get it toally wrong and atrahal is towna nd not a symp, we have six players and three scum amongst them.

Anomandaris, -on every train, came up with the korbas case which brought about their lynch, but hasnt really made their own case since, rather joining middl or late ont he next two trains
Driss, - missed first train, but on second and thirdd with fener and omtose, named as a suspect by atrahal above on day when karosis says atrahal was targetted.
Eloth, - hasnt been on a train since day 1, been in the firing line all game, not sure if a successful night kill of atrahal would have saved or damned him, but it would certainly of caused a lot of discussion.
Fener, - has been discussed as very free with the votes, was almost on all three lynches, but for timing on day 1. Jumped around yesterday, and was sort of cleared by the atrahal post above.
Liosan, - its me!!!
Omtose - has been subject to a few votes and cases, ampelas voted him, then suddenly swapped to follow at the end. On last two trains along side driss and fener.

Out of all the players remaining eloth and ano are sitting with little or no connection to any players remaining. ano hasnt had any real pressure either all game, while eloth is the subject of quite a few votes.
You could say i followed fener onto the amp case a few days ago, but we have both posted our cases regarding him and we werenton the korv lynch together. fener is also linked by voting to driss and omtose, but not really by suspicion.

Personally i thinkits either driss and omtose, or ano /eloth / fener and they have done a great job of distancing each from other.

If atrahal is the symp that would make fener best target for scum, alongside ano whom he didnt mention.

Thoughts?

To use Atrahal's words, D'riss has been giving me an STD'esque itch for days. It's nothing that he's done, it's more what he hasn't done. He has always had something to say, but he hasn't really ever made his own case, just elaborated on other people's cases. Given that he was one of Atrahal's named ones, I'm going to lay my vote down there for now. I'll be on thread most of the day, and paying attention all weekend, so if something more substantial or interesting comes up, I'll move it.

But for now....

vote D'riss