[Korbas]

Can someone with more time do the number crunching? I have nada, ability wise.

[Anomandaris]

8 players

1 bat

1 penguin

6 left over. If he has 3 cultists then he's got plurality. Not too many numbers to crunch I dont guess.

[Anomandaris]

And if his BP's were anything like my two I started with (and they totally may not be) then they only work during the night.

[Galain]

Anomandaris, on 14 June 2012 - 02:43 AM, said:

8 players

1 bat

1 penguin

6 left over. If he has 3 cultists then he's got plurality. Not too many numbers to crunch I dont guess.

Uhm, there needs to be more maths here. Like "At this point PI could have had X players, who would have reverted to town..."



You know, and work out based on the vigs/lynches how many Penguin has lost?



...it's not as easy as "he only needs 3 cultists". Sorry for being a bit derisory there, I'm just off to work in a little bit and don't have time to crunch the numbers, but your basic math isn't really working out the standings. BESIDES WHICH: he needs more than 3 cultists to swing a lynch, doesn't he?

[Omtose]

Ok, I'm back for a bit, but I've got a headache. What if D'riss is the Penguin? Rashan did it. If he doesn't have plurality, he might try something that desperate.

[Anomandaris]

Galain, on 14 June 2012 - 02:47 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 14 June 2012 - 02:43 AM, said:

8 players

1 bat

1 penguin

6 left over. If he has 3 cultists then he's got plurality. Not too many numbers to crunch I dont guess.

Uhm, there needs to be more maths here. Like "At this point PI could have had X players, who would have reverted to town..."



You know, and work out based on the vigs/lynches how many Penguin has lost?



...it's not as easy as "he only needs 3 cultists". Sorry for being a bit derisory there, I'm just off to work in a little bit and don't have time to crunch the numbers, but your basic math isn't really working out the standings. BESIDES WHICH: he needs more than 3 cultists to swing a lynch, doesn't he?

My local donut shop has a new flavor.... I dont really have time for maths either. Yeah he needs more than 3 to swing the lynch but who else is going to get lynched besides batman? He doesnt really need to swing it.

[D'riss]

Theoretically, a CL would sacrifice an LP to ensure one more recruit at this point. Especially if he was unsure of their plurality and they didn't have weapons.

[Galain]

Omtose, on 14 June 2012 - 02:52 AM, said:

Ok, I'm back for a bit, but I've got a headache. What if D'riss is the Penguin? Rashan did it. If he doesn't have plurality, he might try something that desperate.

Like making us all lynch and/or vig him, thus proving he is the Penguin for the Batman? That seems...an overreaction? If I were the Penguin, I either would have labelled someone he knows isn't his recruit as the Batman for today, assuming he doesn't have pluarlity, OR have just stayed quiet and cryptic.
But if he's pretty sure he's got plurality wouldn't it have been easier for him to say so on thread rather in message? Therefore I'm assuming he doesn't have plurality and therefore has either done the above (mislabelled the Batman...though D'riss' reaction seems to contradict that) or he's nuts.



OR just relying on the fact that he does in fact have plurality and will therefore win when D'riss takes a plunge.

Basically what I'm getting at is, pending number crunching or vigs being revealed, we're going to have to vote D'riss unless we want the Batman to possibly kill Penguin tonight. I'm doubting that Penguin has plurality, but that depends on the numbers. I'm also assuming that everyone agrees we don't want to fuck around hoping the Bat doesn't know who/guess who Penguin is.



Ah...so that's the play, then? We basically have to co-operate with Penguin, plurality or no, and just take the risk, don't we? Technically he knows who has guns and who he's recruited...so he's got town in a bind, basically.

Alright, I'm bound for work. When I return I'll probably be voting D'riss unless some vigs have shown up or the situation has changed drastically...but I'm not going to leave my vote here in case it gets abused by someone with a lot more info than me.

[Galain]

D, on 14 June 2012 - 02:57 AM, said:

Theoretically, a CL would sacrifice an LP to ensure one more recruit at this point. Especially if he was unsure of their plurality and they didn't have weapons.

Hmm, that is a good point. Which would make it plausible that you're Penguin and Omtose is your recruit/someone thinking further ahead. Clever tactic, actually...

[Omtose]

Too much WIFOM.

[D'riss]

Omtose, on 14 June 2012 - 02:52 AM, said:

Ok, I'm back for a bit, but I've got a headache. What if D'riss is the Penguin? Rashan did it. If he doesn't have plurality, he might try something that desperate.

Omtose, on 14 June 2012 - 03:13 AM, said:

Too much WIFOM.

Lol.

[Anomandaris]

Gotta go to bed. I figure its the only way lynching is going to go so


Vote Driss

[Fener]

First,

Vote D'riss

That seems pretty straightforward. I don't see another viable lynch candidate. No reason not to test it or disbelieve Penguin's message. In his previous messages, there has been a lot of info. In this one, there is only one message - kill D'riss. He was right about Telas. Why he would lie about the Batman makes no sense.

[Fener]

Korbas, on 14 June 2012 - 02:16 AM, said:

Emur, vig Fener. Unless you have a better idea of who is penguin's.

Yeah, Emur is gonna do that after spending all of yesterday claiming to be a Penguin recruit... The only person I want to vig more than you is the Batman. You're lucky, psycho.

[Fener]

Fener, on 14 June 2012 - 05:58 AM, said:

Korbas, on 14 June 2012 - 02:16 AM, said:

Emur, vig Fener. Unless you have a better idea of who is penguin's.

Yeah, Emur is gonna do that after spending all of yesterday claiming to be a Penguin recruit... The only person I want to vig more than you is the Batman. You're lucky, psycho.

On this note, Emur, if you were telling the truth, you know what you have to do.

[Emurlahn]

Vig Korbas? I'll be back in an hour or so.

Vote D'riss

[D'riss]

I believe four would be a plurality, yes? Lol.

[Fener]

Emurlahn, on 14 June 2012 - 06:15 AM, said:

Vig Korbas? I'll be back in an hour or so.

Vote D'riss

As much as I want to, no. Read Penguin's message again. If he's confident of plurality AND he's telling his recruits to vig D'riss AND then says, well, lynch D'riss if you don't vig him.

The lynch is the one place that could stall. Although it benefits no one but Batman NOT to vote for Batman, a town member could still refuse in hopes of getting weapons and gaining plurality. They also are probably willing to take the risk that Batman won't be able to kill Penguin at night- which is stupid, because if he does, we all lose.

But I see no reason we shouldn't unload it all on Batman and see what happens. I am assuming this is D-Day. Action order resolution could mean a lot if we have too many weapons out there, but a lynch might take awhile.

In other words, it's simple: kill the Batman.

[Omtose]

Did you just shoot D'riss?

[D'riss]

I ain't lost no BP yet.