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Mafia 87.5: The Numbers Game When Transcendentals Attack!

#441 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 03:57 AM

Or Theory 3, Rashan is wifoming up the thread. :)



I'm leaning Amp or Rashan again. Haven't really gotten a scum vibe (or really seen any behavior) to believe Ano is a killer.

#442 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 04:32 AM

caught up from this morning, driss your sudden backing off is exactly what I expected, you must be new to mafia because you just fell into my trap! .....



Or not so much.

Really think rashan is stretching credituality (new word?) with the theorising, If I was, gun to the head, forced to pick one player as not a killer id probably pick Ano, so this makes me think either ano is on to something and rashan is panicking or rashan wants to further muddy the waters and drag an inno down.


Update ofthe will vote for list, driss, galain or rashan.



last day on site today so I've been pretty hectic since this morning, hoping to knock off early though to keep up better

#443 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 04:34 AM

double post, that was korbas, galain, or rashan


But don't think I haven't got my eye on you driss, your play is reminiscent of drek in the oldies game

#444 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 09:43 AM

View PostGalain, on 24 May 2012 - 11:59 PM, said:

Oh, also, i'm not going to help us get a kill for the sake of not wasting a lynch. I'm not convinced that Rashan is Scum, so i won't vote for him. We're down quite a few towns already, if yesterday's lynch had passed we might have been down four townies and zero scums. Is that so hard to understand?

Also, geez, since when is coming on late a valid voting excuse? I was busy today, and you're probably in another timezone than i am.


Ok, I need to challenge this. I'm not saying you're scum, just mis-informed about how the hell innos are going to win an M&P game.

First I'll start with a question:

What in the world is going to "convince" you that someone is scum?

There are no finders or guards to come save our bacon. "Slips" happen so damn rarely in Malazan Mafia, and when they do, it tends to be in a complicated game when people make the wrong assumptions.
Scum simply are not going to just land in your lap. You have to lynch to find out who was willing to lynch who, and the connections you can make through lynch trains and votes are far more reliable than what Rashan is trying to do by speculating about night kills.

I'm sorry, in my opinion it doesn't matter one whit how "convinced" you are, because if we don't lynch, we have NOTHING. Nothing except what scum wants to give us at night, which is nothing good.

#445 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 09:48 AM

That being said, Galain was unwilling to lynch Rashan. To me, that is a possible nugget of information. Now, if he comes up scum, Galain is a simple next choice. If he doesn't, well, at least we have managed to get rid of a big question mark.

Vote Rashan

#446 User is offline   Anomandaris 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 11:22 AM

Ok, so here are my thoughts on Rashan, since I see people are not going to think about anyone else until this is resolved:

On day one, Rashan appeared to vacillate between our two primary suspects, Shelly and TS. He blatantly says he wants to get a train up and running, and then plays a "i'll go with the flow" card for the remainder of the day. All in all, a fairly bland playstyle imao. Nothing really jumps out at me as particularly scummy.

Day two, he starts getting defensive and erratic. Not right away though. He throws in one more defense of his behavior on Day 1 and then digs into Fener, picking up on Fener's nonchalance and lack of surprise at Day 1's outcome (always a favorite handle for accusing someone of being scum). He then lets go and moves to Amp after deciding Fener wasn't overall very scummy.

However, this is probably where people start having their scumdars pinged, he doesn't stick with his case and never puts down a vote. He spends much of the rest of his posts defending himself against jibes and occasionally lashing out at people such as myself. Towards the end, he's begging people to post, being chummy with me as one of the few people posting, and all in all seems to be going crazy with anxiety.

After the Day 2 no-lynch, he continues his rapid posting, however now with more content (as the pressure comes off with an new day). I'm not sure how he sees me as manipulating him into looking at Korbas and Amp, but whatever.

All in all, while I think he is playing erratically and making a lot of mistakes, the fact that both Shelly and TS died on Day 1, and that those are the only two people he examined doesn't seem to line up with him being scum (unless he is reeeeeeeeeeeally stupid, which with Malazan players I find hard to believe).

It's easy to make a case on erratic players, and as someone said, people these days rarely make a mistake in slipping up and saying they're scum. I've seen it happen only once in my time here. That all being said, I am not convinced Rashan is vote worth yet and while it may seem like I'm defending him, I'm more focused on the fact that we are quickly running out of days till D-day and every lynch is very important (>_< = yesterday).

I would like to seem some higher level analysis than I've been seeing, especially in terms of trying to get inside the killers' heads. And I still think Korbas and Amp are the best two candidates for that.

#447 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 12:54 PM

View PostAnomandaris, on 25 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

I would like to seem some higher level analysis than I've been seeing, especially in terms of trying to get inside the killers' heads. And I still think Korbas and Amp are the best two candidates for that.


I don't get your last sentence here. You think Korbas and Amp are best candidates for what? Killers? Or getting inside the killers heads?

So your conclusion about Rashan is he's a moron townie? TBH, that's the vibe I got halfway through Day 2 which is why I removed my vote at that point.

#448 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 12:59 PM

I know D'riss you consider this all wifom but take it from the perspective that I have no immunity to the poison NOR did I poison the glasses. I'm frankly afraid to drink either. That said, while I agree with Thyr on the fact that Ano has felt to be one of the more inno players, I seem the scummiest in some eyes and yet I can tell you I'm not. I can't shake the feeling that I've been lead on. Only one way to know this so:

vote Anomander

I subscribe to the theory that Ano is trying to confuse the thread with cases against Korbas and Amp so that we cannot get a solid lynch train going. He killed Karosis since Karosis was the only one to point this out earlier.

#449 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 01:01 PM

View PostD, on 25 May 2012 - 12:54 PM, said:

View PostAnomandaris, on 25 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

I would like to seem some higher level analysis than I've been seeing, especially in terms of trying to get inside the killers' heads. And I still think Korbas and Amp are the best two candidates for that.


I don't get your last sentence here. You think Korbas and Amp are best candidates for what? Killers? Or getting inside the killers heads?

So your conclusion about Rashan is he's a moron townie? TBH, that's the vibe I got halfway through Day 2 which is why I removed my vote at that point.



Now D'riss be nice. I could call you a complete <insert random expletive> for trying to do a speed lynch yesterday which might I add is a very scummy thing to do, but Sir Thursday asked us nicely to refrain from name calling.

#450 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 01:02 PM

I'm cool with considering anyone at the moment, including Anomander. The nature of the beast that is Malazan Mafia is that the players here are GOOD. Scum play isn't gonna come out and hit you in the face.

#451 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 01:16 PM

View PostAnomandaris, on 25 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

Ok, so here are my thoughts on Rashan, since I see people are not going to think about anyone else until this is resolved:

On day one, Rashan appeared to vacillate between our two primary suspects, Shelly and TS. He blatantly says he wants to get a train up and running, and then plays a "i'll go with the flow" card for the remainder of the day. All in all, a fairly bland playstyle imao. Nothing really jumps out at me as particularly scummy.

Day two, he starts getting defensive and erratic. Not right away though. He throws in one more defense of his behavior on Day 1 and then digs into Fener, picking up on Fener's nonchalance and lack of surprise at Day 1's outcome (always a favorite handle for accusing someone of being scum). He then lets go and moves to Amp after deciding Fener wasn't overall very scummy.

However, this is probably where people start having their scumdars pinged, he doesn't stick with his case and never puts down a vote. He spends much of the rest of his posts defending himself against jibes and occasionally lashing out at people such as myself. Towards the end, he's begging people to post, being chummy with me as one of the few people posting, and all in all seems to be going crazy with anxiety.

After the Day 2 no-lynch, he continues his rapid posting, however now with more content (as the pressure comes off with an new day). I'm not sure how he sees me as manipulating him into looking at Korbas and Amp, but whatever.

All in all, while I think he is playing erratically and making a lot of mistakes, the fact that both Shelly and TS died on Day 1, and that those are the only two people he examined doesn't seem to line up with him being scum (unless he is reeeeeeeeeeeally stupid, which with Malazan players I find hard to believe).

It's easy to make a case on erratic players, and as someone said, people these days rarely make a mistake in slipping up and saying they're scum. I've seen it happen only once in my time here. That all being said, I am not convinced Rashan is vote worth yet and while it may seem like I'm defending him, I'm more focused on the fact that we are quickly running out of days till D-day and every lynch is very important (>_< = yesterday).

I would like to seem some higher level analysis than I've been seeing, especially in terms of trying to get inside the killers' heads. And I still think Korbas and Amp are the best two candidates for that.


You sound very smartly with your long post sumarizing daily activities. I think it is a nice touch where the only way I can have any intelligence is if I am scum, then patting the other Malaz Mafia players on the back for being so good. An ego stroke never hurts. Would you like me to do a summary of everyone else that has changed their minds or votes throughout this game? I seem to recall a couple vote changes from D'riss as well as Korbas off the top of my head. If this were a courtroom I would object to you leading the witness(s)(ssess)(esssesssesss).

That said, I do actually think you are good enough at this that you could remain off our collective scumdars.

#452 User is offline   Telas 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 01:57 PM

View PostD, on 25 May 2012 - 01:30 AM, said:

For reals today, I'm read to test the Amp - Telas connection, for no other reason that it probably affords us the most information at this ponit. Except for one fact niggling the back of my brain. Why was Rashan hard to lynch? Thing is, scum actually want lynches of townies to happen too, because it allows them to whittle down the field and potentially win faster. Only THREE people were willing to actually lay a vote down on Rashan. If he was innocent, I can't help but feel that scum would have been more than happy to lay their votes down on him to deadify him.


Could it be because Rashan is a killer, so he and his killer friend wouldn't throw a vote down on one of their pair? If that's true, Rashan's partner probably was one of the non-voters, waiting to throw a hammer vote down if it was necessary. And then Karosis gets NK'd. Rashan tries to make it seem like D'Riss is suggesting that the people on the Rashan lynch were scum, and then uses the Karosis NK to throw the spotlight on Ano. In true Rashan fashion, he picks up on someone else's idea and runs with it, albeit in the different direction than the person who originally posted. First it was a couple of my ideas, now it's D'Riss's idea.


View PostRashan, on 25 May 2012 - 02:02 AM, said:

You're right D'riss that's been niggling me too. I really got the feeling that scum was on my train.

This Karosis kill also is bugging me. But how about THIS for the theory, and IT could have worked.

So WE look at who Karosis has been looking at and the only one we find is Ando with his theory on Korbas and Amp. Karosis is NKd so now we wonder if Ando took him out. This just makes the theories regarding Korbas and Ampelas no longer valid and so we target Ando. Ando cf's town and the killers get another night.


I personally think Karosis was NKd because he didn't really show any strong opinions besides mentioning that perhaps Anomandaris was a killer because he was trying to 'confuse the thread.' (which I think is a load of crap). The killers (aka Rashan and ?) are trying to get us to look in different directions.

As you can tell, I'm still getting the scum vibes from Rashan, and strong.

#453 User is offline   Galain 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 01:58 PM

Right, i am back and i am catching up!

#454 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 02:00 PM

View PostRashan, on 25 May 2012 - 12:59 PM, said:

I know D'riss you consider this all wifom but take it from the perspective that I have no immunity to the poison NOR did I poison the glasses. I'm frankly afraid to drink either. That said, while I agree with Thyr on the fact that Ano has felt to be one of the more inno players, I seem the scummiest in some eyes and yet I can tell you I'm not. I can't shake the feeling that I've been lead on. Only one way to know this so:

vote Anomander

I subscribe to the theory that Ano is trying to confuse the thread with cases against Korbas and Amp so that we cannot get a solid lynch train going. He killed Karosis since Karosis was the only one to point this out earlier.





View PostRashan, on 25 May 2012 - 01:16 PM, said:

View PostAnomandaris, on 25 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

Ok, so here are my thoughts on Rashan, since I see people are not going to think about anyone else until this is resolved:

On day one, Rashan appeared to vacillate between our two primary suspects, Shelly and TS. He blatantly says he wants to get a train up and running, and then plays a "i'll go with the flow" card for the remainder of the day. All in all, a fairly bland playstyle imao. Nothing really jumps out at me as particularly scummy.

Day two, he starts getting defensive and erratic. Not right away though. He throws in one more defense of his behavior on Day 1 and then digs into Fener, picking up on Fener's nonchalance and lack of surprise at Day 1's outcome (always a favorite handle for accusing someone of being scum). He then lets go and moves to Amp after deciding Fener wasn't overall very scummy.

However, this is probably where people start having their scumdars pinged, he doesn't stick with his case and never puts down a vote. He spends much of the rest of his posts defending himself against jibes and occasionally lashing out at people such as myself. Towards the end, he's begging people to post, being chummy with me as one of the few people posting, and all in all seems to be going crazy with anxiety.

After the Day 2 no-lynch, he continues his rapid posting, however now with more content (as the pressure comes off with an new day). I'm not sure how he sees me as manipulating him into looking at Korbas and Amp, but whatever.

All in all, while I think he is playing erratically and making a lot of mistakes, the fact that both Shelly and TS died on Day 1, and that those are the only two people he examined doesn't seem to line up with him being scum (unless he is reeeeeeeeeeeally stupid, which with Malazan players I find hard to believe).

It's easy to make a case on erratic players, and as someone said, people these days rarely make a mistake in slipping up and saying they're scum. I've seen it happen only once in my time here. That all being said, I am not convinced Rashan is vote worth yet and while it may seem like I'm defending him, I'm more focused on the fact that we are quickly running out of days till D-day and every lynch is very important (>_< = yesterday).

I would like to seem some higher level analysis than I've been seeing, especially in terms of trying to get inside the killers' heads. And I still think Korbas and Amp are the best two candidates for that.


You sound very smartly with your long post sumarizing daily activities. I think it is a nice touch where the only way I can have any intelligence is if I am scum, then patting the other Malaz Mafia players on the back for being so good. An ego stroke never hurts. Would you like me to do a summary of everyone else that has changed their minds or votes throughout this game? I seem to recall a couple vote changes from D'riss as well as Korbas off the top of my head. If this were a courtroom I would object to you leading the witness(s)(ssess)(esssesssesss).

That said, I do actually think you are good enough at this that you could remain off our collective scumdars.



So if anno is attempting to stay off the radar would he NK karosis since he blamed him on trying to start the train? It seems to me like lynching someone who is clearly opposed to you makes it obvious that you're scum. However, if everyone thinks this way, then anno NKing Karosis could just be him thinking one more step ahead.

Did that make sense?

#455 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 02:11 PM

View PostKorbas, on 25 May 2012 - 02:00 PM, said:

View PostRashan, on 25 May 2012 - 12:59 PM, said:

I know D'riss you consider this all wifom but take it from the perspective that I have no immunity to the poison NOR did I poison the glasses. I'm frankly afraid to drink either. That said, while I agree with Thyr on the fact that Ano has felt to be one of the more inno players, I seem the scummiest in some eyes and yet I can tell you I'm not. I can't shake the feeling that I've been lead on. Only one way to know this so:

vote Anomander

I subscribe to the theory that Ano is trying to confuse the thread with cases against Korbas and Amp so that we cannot get a solid lynch train going. He killed Karosis since Karosis was the only one to point this out earlier.





View PostRashan, on 25 May 2012 - 01:16 PM, said:

View PostAnomandaris, on 25 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

Ok, so here are my thoughts on Rashan, since I see people are not going to think about anyone else until this is resolved:

On day one, Rashan appeared to vacillate between our two primary suspects, Shelly and TS. He blatantly says he wants to get a train up and running, and then plays a "i'll go with the flow" card for the remainder of the day. All in all, a fairly bland playstyle imao. Nothing really jumps out at me as particularly scummy.

Day two, he starts getting defensive and erratic. Not right away though. He throws in one more defense of his behavior on Day 1 and then digs into Fener, picking up on Fener's nonchalance and lack of surprise at Day 1's outcome (always a favorite handle for accusing someone of being scum). He then lets go and moves to Amp after deciding Fener wasn't overall very scummy.

However, this is probably where people start having their scumdars pinged, he doesn't stick with his case and never puts down a vote. He spends much of the rest of his posts defending himself against jibes and occasionally lashing out at people such as myself. Towards the end, he's begging people to post, being chummy with me as one of the few people posting, and all in all seems to be going crazy with anxiety.

After the Day 2 no-lynch, he continues his rapid posting, however now with more content (as the pressure comes off with an new day). I'm not sure how he sees me as manipulating him into looking at Korbas and Amp, but whatever.

All in all, while I think he is playing erratically and making a lot of mistakes, the fact that both Shelly and TS died on Day 1, and that those are the only two people he examined doesn't seem to line up with him being scum (unless he is reeeeeeeeeeeally stupid, which with Malazan players I find hard to believe).

It's easy to make a case on erratic players, and as someone said, people these days rarely make a mistake in slipping up and saying they're scum. I've seen it happen only once in my time here. That all being said, I am not convinced Rashan is vote worth yet and while it may seem like I'm defending him, I'm more focused on the fact that we are quickly running out of days till D-day and every lynch is very important (>_< = yesterday).

I would like to seem some higher level analysis than I've been seeing, especially in terms of trying to get inside the killers' heads. And I still think Korbas and Amp are the best two candidates for that.


You sound very smartly with your long post sumarizing daily activities. I think it is a nice touch where the only way I can have any intelligence is if I am scum, then patting the other Malaz Mafia players on the back for being so good. An ego stroke never hurts. Would you like me to do a summary of everyone else that has changed their minds or votes throughout this game? I seem to recall a couple vote changes from D'riss as well as Korbas off the top of my head. If this were a courtroom I would object to you leading the witness(s)(ssess)(esssesssesss).

That said, I do actually think you are good enough at this that you could remain off our collective scumdars.



So if anno is attempting to stay off the radar would he NK karosis since he blamed him on trying to start the train? It seems to me like lynching someone who is clearly opposed to you makes it obvious that you're scum. However, if everyone thinks this way, then anno NKing Karosis could just be him thinking one more step ahead.

Did that make sense?




Now YOU'RE doing the WIFOM.

#456 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 02:13 PM

back after considerably longer than expected.



Rashan, the case on ano is a massive stretch, I think you even know it yourself. It makes little sense at all.
this is a drive by for the hammer on day one and todays poor logic, after, what I cosidered, a reasonable showing yesterday. Such a uturn has to have motive

vote rashan


Squeal little piggy!

#457 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 02:16 PM

View PostTelas, on 25 May 2012 - 01:57 PM, said:

View PostD, on 25 May 2012 - 01:30 AM, said:

For reals today, I'm read to test the Amp - Telas connection, for no other reason that it probably affords us the most information at this ponit. Except for one fact niggling the back of my brain. Why was Rashan hard to lynch? Thing is, scum actually want lynches of townies to happen too, because it allows them to whittle down the field and potentially win faster. Only THREE people were willing to actually lay a vote down on Rashan. If he was innocent, I can't help but feel that scum would have been more than happy to lay their votes down on him to deadify him.


Could it be because Rashan is a killer, so he and his killer friend wouldn't throw a vote down on one of their pair? If that's true, Rashan's partner probably was one of the non-voters, waiting to throw a hammer vote down if it was necessary. And then Karosis gets NK'd. Rashan tries to make it seem like D'Riss is suggesting that the people on the Rashan lynch were scum, and then uses the Karosis NK to throw the spotlight on Ano. In true Rashan fashion, he picks up on someone else's idea and runs with it, albeit in the different direction than the person who originally posted. First it was a couple of my ideas, now it's D'Riss's idea.


View PostRashan, on 25 May 2012 - 02:02 AM, said:

You're right D'riss that's been niggling me too. I really got the feeling that scum was on my train.

This Karosis kill also is bugging me. But how about THIS for the theory, and IT could have worked.

So WE look at who Karosis has been looking at and the only one we find is Ando with his theory on Korbas and Amp. Karosis is NKd so now we wonder if Ando took him out. This just makes the theories regarding Korbas and Ampelas no longer valid and so we target Ando. Ando cf's town and the killers get another night.


I personally think Karosis was NKd because he didn't really show any strong opinions besides mentioning that perhaps Anomandaris was a killer because he was trying to 'confuse the thread.' (which I think is a load of crap). The killers (aka Rashan and ?) are trying to get us to look in different directions.

As you can tell, I'm still getting the scum vibes from Rashan, and strong.


OR the killers (aka Ano and Telas?) are trying to take out another townie in a lynch + their nk which brings towns numbers down to 7.

Do you think of nothing else but me when you go to bed at night?

#458 User is offline   Rashan 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 02:35 PM

View PostThyrllan, on 25 May 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

back after considerably longer than expected.



Rashan, the case on ano is a massive stretch, I think you even know it yourself. It makes little sense at all.
this is a drive by for the hammer on day one and todays poor logic, after, what I cosidered, a reasonable showing yesterday. Such a uturn has to have motive

vote rashan


Squeal little piggy!





Sorry, I know you'd like me to but I won't have the time to play like yesterday. I'm going to stick with Ano. You'll all get the votes on me I'm sure so then when I cf town the rest of you townies will be left wondering who to target next.

So when it comes down to that my opinions regarding players are:

Galain - Little content - random posts. I think that's his style. I haven't seen anything that tells me scum, but I haven't seen a lot to tell me townie either.
Thyr - You don't really do very much either than agree with other people. That has felt a little odd.
Korbas - I don't see why Ano is so hot for him tbh. Part of the reason why I like an Ano lynch.
Ampelas - A possibility. I feel like when we put pressure on Amp, that's when Telas went batshit. That could maybe be a pair.
D'riss - Not very original. Doesn't build elaborate cases but I get the feeling he's thinking things through (just not as vocal about the process as I am) I get a town vibe
Telas - I feel like the strong convictions you have are because you actually know that I am town. You've latched onto a couple minor things I've said and are using them as an excuse to take out a townie. I don't feel like I have any other case on you though so that's why I'm not throwing a vote your way.
Fener - I've got nothing. Totally off my radar.
Ano - Playing a tight and controlled game. Too much so. He was the one that started the radical idea that Shelly's killers may have been distancing and put the heat on with Korbas and Amp. I think this is something.

Just wanted to get that out there as I'm going to be fairly busy and you guys may decide to do a rapid lynch BEFORE the weekend freeze. Go after Ano and Telas next. Galain if you get anything from this round of voting.

Then again, I may surprise you (and me) and have some free time later.

#459 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 03:11 PM

It is now Day 3. There are 22 hours and 8 minutes left in the day.

There are 9 players left: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain, Korbas, Rashan, Telas, Thyrllan

5 votes required for a lynch, 5 to go to night.

1 vote Korbas (Anomandaris)
3 votes Rashan (Telas, D'riss, Thyrllan)
2 votes Anomandaris (Korbas, Rashan)

Players not voting: Ampelas, Fener, Galain


Regarding the weekend - the timer will be frozen at midnight BST, but play can continue after that - any lynches will be processed. The timer will restart at midday BST on Monday.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 25 May 2012 - 03:12 PM

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#460 User is offline   Galain 

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Posted 25 May 2012 - 03:21 PM

I can see the merits of an Anomandaris lynch, i might throw my vote on the pile after some consideration. I'll look over all the cases again and will post my opinion in a few minutes.

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