[Mockra]

Anomandaris, on 30 April 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

OK, back and caught up. Serc seems to be dominating the thread with the promise of information, but as far as I can tell he has committed to absolutely nothing he has said being true. In all cases, it's "I'm guessing" or "It's possible that". Until he actually commits to one of his pronouncements actually being true, I'm inclined to ignore most of what he says. I think we should be particularly suspicious of his deductions about people's roles based on their responses to his fishing. This game has 30 players in, and yet he jumped on the first person who responded to what he said. When you fish for info, you've got to wait a while to let everyone see the lure before you reel it in. Otherwise you're far more likely to have just picked up a random player who is annoyed at your behaviour.

I understand and agree with a lot of the cries for a low post lynch. They're definitely a default fallback option. I was interested to read Liosan's post in which he suggested that actually the Zombies were not the best targets to go after. I have to say I strongly disagree with this. The more zombies there are, the more powerful they are. And the longer the game goes on, the more zombies there will be unless we take action now. If we can cut down the number of zombies to a more manageable level, we are also diminishing their recruitment pool (since they need to be able to match up with the DR of the other players).

Here is the post I was talking about:

Liosan, on 30 April 2012 - 08:59 AM, said:

Finally, a last thought to stack up all that I've had over the night. So VC's, people keep saying that zombies are scum kill them all. Looking back at the VCs, I get the impression that such sentiments are misleading (maybe not from human players).

Human factions have to be the last one standing to win. Therefore the most expedient path to victory is to target every human they can and hope to eliminate their rivals before the zombies consume them.

Zombies, on the other hand, benefit from the waiting game, especially if we are dealing with zombie bosses. Think about it. We lynch a zombie, so what? That's less chance they'll recruit/kill someone over night, but that doesn't mean they won't or their partner won't. It's like shooting zombies without a head shot. They'll keep coming, albeit slower. According to the VCs, zombies just need to get enough nights to probe every player still alive and either convert or kill them. The only reason I can think of to attack zombies is to hope that by lowering a zombie boss's vote count, it ups the chance that they will actually run into a DR-1 situation and lose one of their minions.

As for the independents, if we really want to eliminate someone other than human faction people, we need to get the voodoo priest. If he sticks around long enough, he wins. Another theory for DR = 0 is that a maim by the voodoo priest diminishes someone's DR. So Kasch could also be a BP who just lost his only night protection. The other independents are helpful (e.g. the priest) or annoying (e.g. the Lone Avenger who will just be hunting leaders with no other motivations).

So my conclusion is that we have it a little backwards. I mean, perhaps I've missed the point, and we are going for weakening the zombies enough so as to no longer have that threat when the human faction blood bath begins. But really, the longer we wait, the better odds there are for the zombies and the voodoo priest. Counterintuitive to the scum/town mindset, but this isn't a M&P game.

Remove Vote


Vote Serc

While it is true that the shortest path to victory for the Humans may be to eliminate the other Human factions, it is not something that anyone is going to be able to convince others to do on thread. On the other hand, all human factions have an interest in seeing the zombies destroyed. Since the zombies have a pretty large voting block, it would seem like the best course of action is to eliminate the zombies first, and then get down the business of eliminating each other afterwards.

I agree almost entirely with your comments on Serc. However, I think he's too dangerous to just ignore. He's spreading what at the moment can only be construed as misinformation - until he's willing to corroborate it with evidence - all over the place. I would note that Liosan and Serc actually seem to be in agreement somewhat on going for the human factions - Serc was clearly trying to push for Galain votes at the beginning, and then went on to Ampelas when he saw it wasn't getting traction.

[Karosis]

Mockra, on 30 April 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on 30 April 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

OK, back and caught up. Serc seems to be dominating the thread with the promise of information, but as far as I can tell he has committed to absolutely nothing he has said being true. In all cases, it's "I'm guessing" or "It's possible that". Until he actually commits to one of his pronouncements actually being true, I'm inclined to ignore most of what he says. I think we should be particularly suspicious of his deductions about people's roles based on their responses to his fishing. This game has 30 players in, and yet he jumped on the first person who responded to what he said. When you fish for info, you've got to wait a while to let everyone see the lure before you reel it in. Otherwise you're far more likely to have just picked up a random player who is annoyed at your behaviour.

I understand and agree with a lot of the cries for a low post lynch. They're definitely a default fallback option. I was interested to read Liosan's post in which he suggested that actually the Zombies were not the best targets to go after. I have to say I strongly disagree with this. The more zombies there are, the more powerful they are. And the longer the game goes on, the more zombies there will be unless we take action now. If we can cut down the number of zombies to a more manageable level, we are also diminishing their recruitment pool (since they need to be able to match up with the DR of the other players).

Here is the post I was talking about:

Liosan, on 30 April 2012 - 08:59 AM, said:

Finally, a last thought to stack up all that I've had over the night. So VC's, people keep saying that zombies are scum kill them all. Looking back at the VCs, I get the impression that such sentiments are misleading (maybe not from human players).

Human factions have to be the last one standing to win. Therefore the most expedient path to victory is to target every human they can and hope to eliminate their rivals before the zombies consume them.

Zombies, on the other hand, benefit from the waiting game, especially if we are dealing with zombie bosses. Think about it. We lynch a zombie, so what? That's less chance they'll recruit/kill someone over night, but that doesn't mean they won't or their partner won't. It's like shooting zombies without a head shot. They'll keep coming, albeit slower. According to the VCs, zombies just need to get enough nights to probe every player still alive and either convert or kill them. The only reason I can think of to attack zombies is to hope that by lowering a zombie boss's vote count, it ups the chance that they will actually run into a DR-1 situation and lose one of their minions.

As for the independents, if we really want to eliminate someone other than human faction people, we need to get the voodoo priest. If he sticks around long enough, he wins. Another theory for DR = 0 is that a maim by the voodoo priest diminishes someone's DR. So Kasch could also be a BP who just lost his only night protection. The other independents are helpful (e.g. the priest) or annoying (e.g. the Lone Avenger who will just be hunting leaders with no other motivations).

So my conclusion is that we have it a little backwards. I mean, perhaps I've missed the point, and we are going for weakening the zombies enough so as to no longer have that threat when the human faction blood bath begins. But really, the longer we wait, the better odds there are for the zombies and the voodoo priest. Counterintuitive to the scum/town mindset, but this isn't a M&P game.

Remove Vote


Vote Serc

While it is true that the shortest path to victory for the Humans may be to eliminate the other Human factions, it is not something that anyone is going to be able to convince others to do on thread. On the other hand, all human factions have an interest in seeing the zombies destroyed. Since the zombies have a pretty large voting block, it would seem like the best course of action is to eliminate the zombies first, and then get down the business of eliminating each other afterwards.

I agree almost entirely with your comments on Serc. However, I think he's too dangerous to just ignore. He's spreading what at the moment can only be construed as misinformation - until he's willing to corroborate it with evidence - all over the place. I would note that Liosan and Serc actually seem to be in agreement somewhat on going for the human factions - Serc was clearly trying to push for Galain votes at the beginning, and then went on to Ampelas when he saw it wasn't getting traction.

This actually is exactly how I feel about Serc. I will be around later tonight, but for now I am going to

Vote Serc

I'll be back later.

[Anomandaris]

I notice Korbas made an attempt to defend against the allegations I leveled against him. I didn't find those defenses particularly satisfying:

Korbas, on 28 April 2012 - 08:13 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on 28 April 2012 - 12:22 PM, said:

Korbas, on 28 April 2012 - 01:47 AM, said:

On the zombie front, the death of a medic (DR-2+1) means that for a kill, not a recruit, Shin had to have been hit by at least 4 zombies. Given that I still believe it a group of 4 alt zombies, controlled by 1 zom-boss, it is likely that Shin also had another +1DR buff that would have prevented recruitment. So that ultimately the zombies of 5, killed the medic with DR of 4.

This is a very strange post. He says there are 4 alt-zombies controlled by 1 zom-boss. That can be read in two ways:

(a) One player controls 4 alts.

(b ) Zombies come in packs of 5, and there is one 'boss' alt for that set.




Now initially I read this as being (a), which looks plausible enough. But then he says he reckons that Shin must have had a DR of 4 (what? Shin quite clearly has a DR of 2 + 1 from his teammate's buff). If that's the case, then he must have meant (b ) rather than (a). And (b ) is something that I haven't seen anyone else even mention as a possibility. I think there was some inside knowledge on display here. Korbas knows how the Zombie teams work, and has let the slip on thread. In order for that to have happened, he must be a Zombie himself.

Vote Korbas

EDIT: Fixing the (b)s.

You've got it wrong. Here is my train of logic, I believe that the zombies present the biggest current threat, so understanding their mechanics is an important element to figure out early. If there are 22 named roles, and 24 sign-ups, that means 2 of the sign-ups had to be roled zombie. That said, there are 8 additional alts beyond the 24 sign-ups. You following so far? If we assume WCS, then those 8 are all zombie alts, and I'd imagine 4 go to each rolled zombie. Given that it is unlikely that the one roled played would be forced to post in each of the alts, someone in probably helping with that, but to avoid interfering in the game, they would have no say in the NA. So with that train of logic, I end up with a zombie faction of 5, the 1 roled player and the extra 4 alts. At this point, which I think we can all agree on (I think the survivor having alts idea is silly), the question is whether the roled player counts in the group. If so, zombies kill DR 4 and recruit DR 3. If not, zombies kill DR 3 and recruit DR 2.


Earlier yesterday, I wasn't thinking WCS. After the NK I was, which is why my numbers changed slightly. I was already thinking that the Priest could add DR (which is why I jumped on Fener mentioning who he thought the priest was on thread), and if the recent speculation regarding the DR manipulator is also valid there would be at least 4 people able to increase DR. I guess I'm just slightly confusd on the numbers, cause it could go either way, and remains to be seen.

Once again, Korbas is making the assumption that there is a 'controller alt', that the other zombies are slaved to. I don't know where this idea comes from or why he is treating it as the most likely option. He's the only person to have brought it up as a possibility. I think there's a good chance that this is a slip by a zombie player about how the zombie role works, so I'm going to keep my vote where it is for the time being.

[Anomandaris]

Mockra, on 30 April 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

I agree almost entirely with your comments on Serc. However, I think he's too dangerous to just ignore. He's spreading what at the moment can only be construed as misinformation - until he's willing to corroborate it with evidence - all over the place. I would note that Liosan and Serc actually seem to be in agreement somewhat on going for the human factions - Serc was clearly trying to push for Galain votes at the beginning, and then went on to Ampelas when he saw it wasn't getting traction.

Is there anything dangerous about misinformation? If you can identify it as such and ignore it, then it's harmless. What Serc has done on thread has been annoying, but I don't think that's necessarily the same as him being a threat.

[Thyrllan]

Why do I get the feeling that once again we're going to lynch the only person willing to stick their neck out? I really don't know about Serc, but I would much rather lynch a non-participant at this early stage in the game than an entertainer like him.

[Thyrllan]

Anomandaris, on 30 April 2012 - 12:22 PM, said:

I notice Korbas made an attempt to defend against the allegations I leveled against him. I didn't find those defenses particularly satisfying:

Korbas, on 28 April 2012 - 08:13 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on 28 April 2012 - 12:22 PM, said:

Korbas, on 28 April 2012 - 01:47 AM, said:

On the zombie front, the death of a medic (DR-2+1) means that for a kill, not a recruit, Shin had to have been hit by at least 4 zombies. Given that I still believe it a group of 4 alt zombies, controlled by 1 zom-boss, it is likely that Shin also had another +1DR buff that would have prevented recruitment. So that ultimately the zombies of 5, killed the medic with DR of 4.

This is a very strange post. He says there are 4 alt-zombies controlled by 1 zom-boss. That can be read in two ways:

(a) One player controls 4 alts.

(b ) Zombies come in packs of 5, and there is one 'boss' alt for that set.




Now initially I read this as being (a), which looks plausible enough. But then he says he reckons that Shin must have had a DR of 4 (what? Shin quite clearly has a DR of 2 + 1 from his teammate's buff). If that's the case, then he must have meant (b ) rather than (a). And (b ) is something that I haven't seen anyone else even mention as a possibility. I think there was some inside knowledge on display here. Korbas knows how the Zombie teams work, and has let the slip on thread. In order for that to have happened, he must be a Zombie himself.

Vote Korbas

EDIT: Fixing the (b)s.

You've got it wrong. Here is my train of logic, I believe that the zombies present the biggest current threat, so understanding their mechanics is an important element to figure out early. If there are 22 named roles, and 24 sign-ups, that means 2 of the sign-ups had to be roled zombie. That said, there are 8 additional alts beyond the 24 sign-ups. You following so far? If we assume WCS, then those 8 are all zombie alts, and I'd imagine 4 go to each rolled zombie. Given that it is unlikely that the one roled played would be forced to post in each of the alts, someone in probably helping with that, but to avoid interfering in the game, they would have no say in the NA. So with that train of logic, I end up with a zombie faction of 5, the 1 roled player and the extra 4 alts. At this point, which I think we can all agree on (I think the survivor having alts idea is silly), the question is whether the roled player counts in the group. If so, zombies kill DR 4 and recruit DR 3. If not, zombies kill DR 3 and recruit DR 2.


Earlier yesterday, I wasn't thinking WCS. After the NK I was, which is why my numbers changed slightly. I was already thinking that the Priest could add DR (which is why I jumped on Fener mentioning who he thought the priest was on thread), and if the recent speculation regarding the DR manipulator is also valid there would be at least 4 people able to increase DR. I guess I'm just slightly confusd on the numbers, cause it could go either way, and remains to be seen.

Once again, Korbas is making the assumption that there is a 'controller alt', that the other zombies are slaved to. I don't know where this idea comes from or why he is treating it as the most likely option. He's the only person to have brought it up as a possibility. I think there's a good chance that this is a slip by a zombie player about how the zombie role works, so I'm going to keep my vote where it is for the time being.

That's interesting. I didn't spot that about Korbas before. Could well be a slip (the old 'speculating on something you know full well about').

[Mockra]

Anomandaris, on 30 April 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Mockra, on 30 April 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

I agree almost entirely with your comments on Serc. However, I think he's too dangerous to just ignore. He's spreading what at the moment can only be construed as misinformation - until he's willing to corroborate it with evidence - all over the place. I would note that Liosan and Serc actually seem to be in agreement somewhat on going for the human factions - Serc was clearly trying to push for Galain votes at the beginning, and then went on to Ampelas when he saw it wasn't getting traction.

Is there anything dangerous about misinformation? If you can identify it as such and ignore it, then it's harmless. What Serc has done on thread has been annoying, but I don't think that's necessarily the same as him being a threat.

If he's a zombie, yeah it's dangerous to ignore him. If he's the voodoo guy trying to trick us into believing he's the priest, then yeah it's dangerous to ignore.

[Kalse]

Right guys I'm off, but I should be back this evening and will try and contribute more then.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 2. The clock has been frozen with 35 Hours and 59 Minutes remaining.
30 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Kalse, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Mockra, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Shelthata Lore, Spite, Telas, Tellan, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

16 votes to lynch, 15 votes to go to night.

4 Votes for Ampelas ( Emurlahn, Rashan, Serc, Thyrllan )
1 Vote for Fener ( Olar Ethil )
1 Vote for Kalse ( Shelthata Lore )
1 Vote for Korbas ( Anomandaris )
4 Votes for Serc ( Liosan, Mockra, Kaschan, Karosis )

Players not voted: Ampelas, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Fener, Galain, Kalse, Korbas, Korvalain, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Ruse, Spite, Telas, Tellan, Tennes, Tulas Shorn

[Mockra]

Thyrllan, on 30 April 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

Why do I get the feeling that once again we're going to lynch the only person willing to stick their neck out? I really don't know about Serc, but I would much rather lynch a non-participant at this early stage in the game than an entertainer like him.

Hey, Serc amuses me too - but I don't think that's really an excuse to let him go on. At least with a Serc lynch we'd be going off something - this Ampelas thing is literally going off nothing.

[Path-Shaper]

Day is starting. 36 hours remaining from this post. Mafia manager seems to be weird, I'm going to restart my computer.
30 Players still alive: Ampelas, Anomandaris, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fener, Galain, Kalse, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Meanas, Mockra, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Osseric, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Shelthata Lore, Spite, Telas, Tellan, Tennes, Thyrllan, Tulas Shorn

16 votes to lynch, 15 votes to go to night.

4 Votes for Ampelas ( Emurlahn, Rashan, Serc, Thyrllan )
1 Vote for Fener ( Olar Ethil )
1 Vote for Kalse ( Shelthata Lore )
1 Vote for Korbas ( Anomandaris )
4 Votes for Serc ( Liosan, Mockra, Kaschan, Karosis )

Players not voted: Ampelas, Anthras, Atrahal, D'riss, Eloth, Fener, Galain, Kalse, Korbas, Korvalain, Meanas, Omtose, Osseric, Ruse, Spite, Telas, Tellan, Tennes, Tulas Shorn

[Thyrllan]

Mockra, on 30 April 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

Thyrllan, on 30 April 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

Why do I get the feeling that once again we're going to lynch the only person willing to stick their neck out? I really don't know about Serc, but I would much rather lynch a non-participant at this early stage in the game than an entertainer like him.

Hey, Serc amuses me too - but I don't think that's really an excuse to let him go on. At least with a Serc lynch we'd be going off something - this Ampelas thing is literally going off nothing.

And what? You think that Ampelas is suddenly going to come on and start revealing everything for us? I say get rid of the dead weight, otherwise we'll always be wondering about it.

[Path-Shaper]

Maybe because we were both using it at the same time

I closed it now. Since JLV is here and started the day, for clarification:

Timers are unfrozen now

[Thyrllan]

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!!

Oh wait, we did already.

[Thyrllan]

Dull as dishwater. Speaking of which, I need to empty the dishwasher. Laters.

[Anomandaris]

Mockra, on 30 April 2012 - 12:28 PM, said:

Anomandaris, on 30 April 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Mockra, on 30 April 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

I agree almost entirely with your comments on Serc. However, I think he's too dangerous to just ignore. He's spreading what at the moment can only be construed as misinformation - until he's willing to corroborate it with evidence - all over the place. I would note that Liosan and Serc actually seem to be in agreement somewhat on going for the human factions - Serc was clearly trying to push for Galain votes at the beginning, and then went on to Ampelas when he saw it wasn't getting traction.

Is there anything dangerous about misinformation? If you can identify it as such and ignore it, then it's harmless. What Serc has done on thread has been annoying, but I don't think that's necessarily the same as him being a threat.

If he's a zombie, yeah it's dangerous to ignore him. If he's the voodoo guy trying to trick us into believing he's the priest, then yeah it's dangerous to ignore.

OK, sure. But by the same logic, everyone is dangerous and we should be lynching them all too .

[Meanas]

Tellan, on 30 April 2012 - 12:04 PM, said:

Meanas, on 30 April 2012 - 11:59 AM, said:

Tellan, on 30 April 2012 - 11:44 AM, said:

Meanas, on 30 April 2012 - 11:42 AM, said:

Been away most of the weekend and wanted to do a proper catch up. No point reading through and disagreeing with someone or finding something I want answered and not asking the question. I do apologise before doing the catch up.

Yeah, but it's not like that. Pretty much everything you mention has already been covered by someone in some fashion, if you read through properly. You just come across as a post-padder to me.

Maybe your thinking of someone else because if you look right back I was the one who started the train on Sorrit, and actually found Galain's antics weird. people must have thought similarly to me otherwise they wouldn't have voted. Not only that but I also had a few arguments day one. In fact other than these last few posts I cannot for the life of me remember something you have said that is brand new. Now the only reason for this is because there are so many alts in play I am forgetful of half of them and there is so many posts to catch up on and read through

Ah, so other people found you suspicious too? Thanks for confirming that. It's true I haven't said much, but at least I haven't been making out like I have been saying loads, as you have. You're just jamming up an already cluttered thread.

Or adding my thoughts to the game, why don't you do something constructive and find something to go off rather than clutch at straws

[Meanas]

I may end up voting along with Ano as I see some potential in Korbas coming out Zombie, for now i'm not happy with Fener's response at all. He is deliberately being evasive.

Vote Fener

[D'riss]

Serc really needs to come out and give up some more information, it is all ifs buts and maybes with him. He really has got the thread moving along and that is to be commended but he needs to explain himself. That being said I'm unsure whether he will come up zombie where as I see some merit in what Anomandaris has to say.

Vote Korbas

[Anomandaris]

Mockra, on 30 April 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

Thyrllan, on 30 April 2012 - 12:26 PM, said:

Why do I get the feeling that once again we're going to lynch the only person willing to stick their neck out? I really don't know about Serc, but I would much rather lynch a non-participant at this early stage in the game than an entertainer like him.

Hey, Serc amuses me too - but I don't think that's really an excuse to let him go on. At least with a Serc lynch we'd be going off something - this Ampelas thing is literally going off nothing.

There are ancillary benefits to lynching Ampelas. The threat of lynching low posters will encourage other low posters to play more - look at Kalse popping up with some posts once the low post vote trains get kick started, for example. We're trading less information immediately for more information in the long run as the low posters are forced to contribute more.