[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 02:50 PM, said:

If Trump becomes president in 2024, and Republicans have the House and Senate, he could use abortion extradition as an excuse to extort or seize Canada's natural resources... IDK if the mere threat of invasion would be enough, or if he'd go ahead with a rapid invasion to secure oil, mining, etc. (lumber would be harder...).

LOL

No. That's not something that would ever happen. You guys are beholden to us for WAY too many resources. Canada would tell Trump to get fucked, and he would have to get fucked. At no point is Canada under threat from the US. And no, the USA is not going to invade Canada. What a ludicrous statement.

America is already on loose ground with the rest of the allied world and NATO would fuck them if they did anything of the sort.

Also, our Head of State is the Queen, and she would likely tell Trump to get fucked too. So that would be funny.

This would be the USA going to war against the world. And they never would. NATO allies don't attack NATO allies for a reason, because it would be goddamn suicide.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2022 - 03:11 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 02:50 PM, said:

If Trump becomes president in 2024, and Republicans have the House and Senate, he could use abortion extradition as an excuse to extort or seize Canada's natural resources... IDK if the mere threat of invasion would be enough, or if he'd go ahead with a rapid invasion to secure oil, mining, etc. (lumber would be harder...).

LOL

No. That's not something that would ever happen. You guys are beholden to us for WAY too many resources. Canada would tell Trump to get fucked, and he would have to get fucked. At no point is Canada under threat from the US. And no, the USA is not going to invade Canada. What a ludicrous statement.

America is already on loose ground with the rest of the allied world and NATO would fuck them if they did anything of the sort.

Also, our Head of State is the Queen, and she would likely tell Trump to get fucked too. So that would be funny.

This would be the USA going to war against the world. And they never would. NATO allies don't attack NATO allies for a reason, because it would be goddamn suicide.

Trump will probably withdraw from NATO, which will then have its hands full with Putin.

While Trump isn't a Christian ideologue (simply exploiting it to increase his power, adulation, and wealth), he would certainly be motivated by money. It's precisely because of Canada's natural resources that he'd want to at least 'make a deal'---with the threat of military action as the stick. Or he could send in the military to seize the mines, oil fields, etc.---or simply use the threat of (conventional) mass bombing (on the pretext of ending the 'barbaric holocaust' of abortion of course... as if it were the new abolitionist movement).

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 May 2022 - 03:21 PM

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 03:20 PM, said:

Trump will probably withdraw from NATO, which will then have its hands full with Putin.

You think Putin will still be the problem he is now by almost 2025? Yeah no, Ukraine will be the end of him.

Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 03:20 PM, said:

While Trump isn't a Christian ideologue (simply exploiting it to increase his power, adulation, and wealth), he would certainly be motivated by money. It's precisely because of Canada's natural resources that he'd want to at least 'make a deal'---with the threat of military action as the stick. Or he could send in the military to seize the mines, oil fields, etc.---or simply use the threat of (conventional) mass bombing (on the pretext of ending the 'barbaric holocaust' of abortion of course... as if it were the new abolitionist movement).

I'm not sure why you think that the US (even a USA outside NATO) would think it would be smart to invade one of its biggest allies and trade partners with whom share a massive land border, and that everyone who would need to go along with it...would just go along with it (the military and all other levels of govt and whatnot.)

They would not. This will never happen. If the US threatened us, the rest of the NATO allies (who would very much NOT still be "engaged" in problems with Putin in 2025) would step in.

This weird fantasy that Americans have that global politics always will bend their necks to the US war machine en masse, is silly. Life is not a movie.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 10 May 2022 - 03:43 PM

[Macros]

Hollywood don't lie to us bro!
Neither does the social media links I read

USA!
USA!
USA!

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2022 - 03:42 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 03:20 PM, said:

Trump will probably withdraw from NATO, which will then have its hands full with Putin.

You think Putin will still be the problem he is now by almost 2025? Yeah no, Ukraine will be the end of him.

Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 03:20 PM, said:

While Trump isn't a Christian ideologue (simply exploiting it to increase his power, adulation, and wealth), he would certainly be motivated by money. It's precisely because of Canada's natural resources that he'd want to at least 'make a deal'---with the threat of military action as the stick. Or he could send in the military to seize the mines, oil fields, etc.---or simply use the threat of (conventional) mass bombing (on the pretext of ending the 'barbaric holocaust' of abortion of course... as if it were the new abolitionist movement).

I'm not sure why you think that the US (even a USA outside NATO) would think it would be smart to invade one of its biggest allies and trade partners with whom share a massive land border, and that everyone who would need to go along with it...would just go along with it (the military and all other levels of govt and whatnot.)

They would not. This will never happen. If the US threatened us, the rest of the NATO allies (who would very much NOT still be "engaged" in problems with Putin in 2025) would step in.

This weird fantasy that Americans have that global politics always will bend their necks to the US war machine en masse, is silly. Life is not a movie.

First Trump's regime will lift the US sanctions. Putin grossly underestimated the Ukrainians. It may take Putin a year or two after Trump's election to build up the Russian military, with the support of China and (more or less surreptitiously) the Trump administration and his allies in the legislature (among others...).

Of course Putin---and Trump---both have the nuclear threat. They are probably willing to at least use small nuclear bombs. Would Trump be too afraid for his own physical safety to threaten to nuke parts of Europe? Perhaps, but it's far from certain.

The Republican legislature will go along with it by using abortion extradition (or abolition) as a pretext.

Trump wouldn't try to invade and occupy Canada (global warming probably won't have gotten that bad by then), but threatening, behind closed doors at first, to bomb Canada (or at least launch drone strikes against abortion providers) if they don't offer extortionate new trade terms (ideally to Trump's kleptocratic associates)? That does seem likely. And it could escalate to open threats of military action on the pretext of attacking abortion providers.

Non-US NATO members would have to drastically accelerate their military development---and anti-missile defenses---to pose an overwhelming obstacle. While Canada's size would make it difficult to fully occupy, that also makes it more difficult to put up effective missile shields for all potential targets.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 May 2022 - 04:04 PM

[QuickTidal]

You live in a fantasy land man. Enjoy that I guess. Global politics don't work like that.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2022 - 04:07 PM, said:

You live in a fantasy land man. Enjoy that I guess. Global politics don't work like that.

You really think Trump wouldn't threaten to do it---whether behind closed doors, strongly implying it, or (depending on his support in the legislature, and their fervor---or feigned fervor---to prosecute Canadian abortion providers) openly? Remember:

'Trump reportedly threatens to send U.S. military to Mexico in call with Mexican president'

Trump reportedly threatens to send U.S. military to Mexico in call with Mexican president - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

'Trump praised Putin over Ukraine so much he seemed to imply we should invade Mexico'

Voices: Trump praised Putin over Ukraine so much he seemed to imply we should invade Mexico

In the past Trump's advisors talked him out of some of his more violent ideas. In the future---especially after Trump learned to focus on hiring yes men who won't try to undermine him---far more of those ideas might go through....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 May 2022 - 04:33 PM

[QuickTidal]

Trumps imaginary shit in his head, or what he thinks he can pull off are not reality.

I also think you're still under the notion that he will run. He won't run. He will bilk his faithful out of money all the way until then...but he will never run again.

If you want to discus the slow and inexorable decline of your nation state, that's fine. But leave us out of it.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 10 May 2022 - 04:47 PM

[Macros]

I've asked this before, early trump presidency, and was told it would never happen.
But at what stage does the GOP have such a skewed minority power hold that genuine upheaval happens, like fracturing of the states?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Former defense secretary Mark Esper: President Trump suggested [...] missile strikes in Mexico'

Trump suggested shooting protesters, missile strikes in Mexico, former defense secretary Mark Esper says - CBS News

If Trump's still alive and in relatively good health, he's almost certainly going to run. If he wins, and takes the legislature too, it will be the de facto end of democracy---or at least the start of one party rule. After Trump genuine Christian nationalist ideologues might come to power. Or more competent would-be fascist dictators willing to exploit Christianity and QAnon....

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2022 - 04:46 PM, said:

If you want to discus the slow and inexorable decline of your nation state, that's fine. But leave us out of it.

Do remember you're the one who brought it up:

'the end of the line is Canada.

So what happens when the Trumpist US gives Canada the ultimatum: extradite them or else?'

[amphibian]

Trump talks a lot of shit about basically every place and every situation. Very, very little of it comes to pass beyond "give cronies opportunities to make $$$". I'm sure he has already talked about extorting Canada, just as he did with Mexico, and just as he did with Ukraine pre-invasion.

I also think Putin will hang on until 2025 barring something like cancer. I believe what is happening in Ukraine now will go for years in a manner similar to Dagestan, but perhaps without the deal-making with the Kadyrovs for control and the resultant pseudo-peace.

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 10 May 2022 - 05:03 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2022 - 04:46 PM, said:

If you want to discus the slow and inexorable decline of your nation state, that's fine. But leave us out of it.

Do remember you're the one who brought it up:

'the end of the line is Canada.

So what happens when the Trumpist US gives Canada the ultimatum: extradite them or else?'

I already told you. They will tell him to go fuck himself. How is this so hard? Again, global politics does not bend to America like that.

amphibian, on 10 May 2022 - 06:20 PM, said:

I also think Putin will hang on until 2025 barring something like cancer. I believe what is happening in Ukraine now will go for years in a manner similar to Dagestan, but perhaps without the deal-making with the Kadyrovs for control and the resultant pseudo-peace.

I've seen both Cancer and Parkinsons touted as things he may already have. But yeah he'll still be an issue...but he won't be an "NATO needs to only focus on him" problem if the US invaded Canada or something, was my general point.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 10 May 2022 - 07:28 PM, said:

amphibian, on 10 May 2022 - 06:20 PM, said:

I also think Putin will hang on until 2025 barring something like cancer. I believe what is happening in Ukraine now will go for years in a manner similar to Dagestan, but perhaps without the deal-making with the Kadyrovs for control and the resultant pseudo-peace.

I've seen both Cancer and Parkinsons touted as things he may already have. But yeah he'll still be an issue...but he won't be an "NATO needs to only focus on him" problem if the US invaded Canada or something, was my general point.

Even if Putin starts launching missiles at NATO nations? If hypersonic missiles strike Helsinki, Stockholm, Berlin? If Trump withdraws support, and (at least) secretly supports Putin, would the UK and France be willing to play nuclear chicken with Russia? Of course an invasion of Canada does seem very unlikely. At least at first, Trump would more likely offer to 'protect' Canada from zealots who want drone strikes against abortion providers---in exchange for a 'deal'... what comes after Trump might be even worse. But Trump does seem to want to turn back the clock to the days when a powerful nation could just invade their neighbors to take what they want and secure key natural resource extraction sites, though how far he's willing to go towards that---surrounding himself with yes-men this time---given his physical cowardice is an open question. If he thought he could 'get away with' sending in troops to secure the mines, oil fields, etc. without potential benefits being outweighed by risks he'd probably try to do it.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 May 2022 - 08:02 PM

[Gorefest]

I'm sorry to say this, but you almost sound as bad as those Qanon conspiracy theorists, only on the other side of the political divide. Relax, kt isn't going to happen. The US is not going to invade other friendly NATO nations. No matter who is in charge. The idea itself is beyond entertainable.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Gorefest, on 10 May 2022 - 09:50 PM, said:

I'm sorry to say this, but you almost sound as bad as those Qanon conspiracy theorists, only on the other side of the political divide. Relax, kt isn't going to happen. The US is not going to invade other friendly NATO nations. No matter who is in charge. The idea itself is beyond entertainable.

There's a tremendous difference between speculation about very unlikely but empirically plausible possible outcomes and belief in conspiracy theories, easily refuted false claims about the present, and the supernatural (or lizard people etc.).

Trumpism has blown up the Overton window... and technology is accelerating the expansion of possible futures.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

For example: it seems very unlikely that Putin would launch missiles at Germany anytime soon, but the German government is looking to purchase missile shields now, apparently to protect against that very possibility.

Germany Looks to Buy Israeli or U.S. Missile Defence System | World News | US News

If Trump and the Christian nationalists seem likely to win in 2024, and the expected calls for extradition of Canadian abortion providers do happen... Canada may at least want some missile shields of their own (at least for areas with a high concentration of abortion providers---if that's even feasible). And they may want to consider buffing up their military just in case.... (Of course we should also be wary of the folly of Pascal's wager.)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 May 2022 - 11:28 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Learning From Putin, Trump's America [May] Invade Canada
It's not as bonkers as it sounds

[...] nothing distracts Americans better than a war.

[...]

Why Canada?

[...] it's convenient and cheap, being right next door. Do you know how much it costs to fly an M1 Abrams tank to Asia? And the border is so undefended that we have signs bragging about it!

[...] Canada sets a bad example. The American right fears and loathes socialism, as they do so many things they don't understand. And even in the land that invented marketing, the superiority of unfettered, brutal capitalism is a tough bucket of doublethink to sell when there's a country full of happy, healthy socialists just over the northern border.

Finally, the most important reason — all the free stuff! Canada has copious natural resources.'

Learning From Putin, Trump's America [May] Invade Canada

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 May 2022 - 01:11 AM

[QuickTidal]

You know you just posted three times proving how deep in the conspiracy rabbit hole you dove man...and posting a Candace Owens tweet is not helping your case. Holy shit.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 11 May 2022 - 12:11 PM, said:

You know you just posted three times proving how deep in the conspiracy rabbit hole you dove man...and posting a Candace Owens tweet is not helping your case. Holy shit.

Huge difference between quoting Candace Owens (etc.) to demonstrate that the Trumpist right has in fact called for invading Canada and quoting Candace Owens to endorse one of her batshit conspiracy theories. Granted, the extent to which she was 'serious' may be debatable. After she tweeted that, Trump said:

'"The radical left is trying to replace American democracy with woke tyranny," [Trump] told his audience [...] drawing a shower of boos in agreement. "They want to do the same thing to America that Trudeau has been doing to Canada [...]

[...] The tyranny we have witnessed in Canada [...] should shock and dismay people all over the world, [...] A line has been crossed — you're either with the peaceful truckers or you are with the left-wing fascists."'

With the world watching Putin, Trump targets Trudeau - POLITICO