[Mentalist]

Cause, on 06 November 2020 - 02:43 PM, said:

The polls seem to have been wrong again though right? The senate hasn’t flipped. Dems didn’t pick up 20 house seats and the presidential race has been decided by small margins rather than anything approaching a landslide. So what happened?

I would guess no one expected such a high voter turnout for the Republicans.

Then again, you get weird stuff like Biden winning Maine, but the Senate seat going to the Republicans.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 06 November 2020 - 02:51 PM

[amphibian]

Cause, on 06 November 2020 - 02:43 PM, said:

The polls seem to have been wrong again though right? The senate hasn’t flipped. Dems didn’t pick up 20 house seats and the presidential race has been decided by small margins rather than anything approaching a landslide. So what happened?

The publicly available polls have been very very bad for several years now.

Nate Cohn of the NY Times wrote about how he spent a lot of time and money to contact 10,000 people and 6 responded.

During the 2016 election cycle, the Chapo Trap House comedians spent a lot of time looking at Fbook comments on political posts and called states with more accuracy than every public poll.

This is a major problem that the media hasn't gotten their heads around yet and there is danger in the continuance in treating the polls and pollsters like they are truly getting a sense of each local community and how people vote or what they care about.

We see it broadly in how they talk about the Latino vote. Assumptions of mono culture are racist and dismissive things to do.

It also made people spend almost 100 mil each on McGrath and Harrison where maybe if Greenfield had more funding for longer, she could have gotten Ernst.

[Macros]

Polls also give that false sense of 'we got this' so people don't vote if it's inconvenient for them, because, it's a lock anyway.

See Brexit for this happening

[Macros]

I assume I am not alone in thinking Trump is going to leave via a salt and scorch the earth policy

[QuickTidal]

The last time an incumbent President was unseated after 1 term was HW Bush right?

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 06 November 2020 - 03:16 PM

[Terez]

Correct. Clinton did 8, and Obama did 8. Then Trump. (Not really ancient history.)

[amphibian]

Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez has a great thread on why the polls aren't working right and why the campaigns like Shalala etc failed: https://twitter.com/...1234921474?s=19

[Slow Ben]

Stacey Abrams is a badass. That’s all.

[Terez]

She is Black Power come to life and I am here for it.

[Malankazooie]

BBQ, Beer, Freedom sleeveless shirt guy is going to be the Ken Bone of this election. Calling it now, most popular Halloween costume 2021.

[Primateus]

I see that a no-fly zone has been put in place over Biden's house. While probably to be expected, it does seem that the rest of the federal government is taking a Biden win seriously.

[Cause]

Primateus, on 06 November 2020 - 04:33 PM, said:

I see that a no-fly zone has been put in place over Biden's house. While probably to be expected, it does seem that the rest of the federal government is taking a Biden win seriously.

I mean if that security measure is needed, shouldn’t I thave been needed a month ago? He was at least the second most likely person to president.

[Mentalist]

Biden's lead down to 44K in AZ. But up to 21K in Nevada.

Where are the remaining AZ votes coming from?

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 06 November 2020 - 04:54 PM

[QuickTidal]

Mentalist, on 06 November 2020 - 04:53 PM, said:

Biden's lead down to 44K in AZ. But up to 21K in Nevada.

Where are the remaining AZ votes coming from?

From 538:

To reiterate where we stand in Arizona: Biden currently leads by a margin of 1.4 percentage points, or 43,779 votes. We estimate there are about 220,000 ballots left to count there, which Trump would need to win by at least a 60-40 ratio to pull ahead. While recent vote releases have been Republican-leaning, they haven’t been that Republican-leaning.

I've seen a bunch of Arizona people on Tiktok today and last night basically telling everyone not to worry that what's left is only going to seal Biden as taking the state.

[Terez]

The networks need to call this. I think they have been waiting on Fox. I can understand that, but I don't think they should wait for Fox much longer.

[Vengeance]

Terez, on 06 November 2020 - 05:54 PM, said:

The networks need to call this. I think they have been waiting on Fox. I can understand that, but I don't think they should wait for Fox much longer.

Fox anchors have been instructed to not refer to Biden as President Elect.

[Macros]

You know what's really fucked up??

The country is waiting on media networks to declare the winner.

Like what the fuck

[Malankazooie]

Nevada needs to get its act together. I mean Vegas and Reno pretty much, right? And that's it. Who do they have counting, eighty year old blue hairs in a rascal scooter, working on their second pack of unfiltered Kools while feeding a slot machine?

[Terez]

Vengeance, on 06 November 2020 - 05:59 PM, said:

Terez, on 06 November 2020 - 05:54 PM, said:

The networks need to call this. I think they have been waiting on Fox. I can understand that, but I don't think they should wait for Fox much longer.

Fox anchors have been instructed to not refer to Biden as President Elect.

Yeah but now that CNN called them on it, they'll look stupid if they hold to that rule.

Macros, on 06 November 2020 - 06:00 PM, said:

You know what's really fucked up??

The country is waiting on media networks to declare the winner.

Like what the fuck

Otherwise we'd be waiting on the official certification, which can take a while. That's why we wait on the networks; they can do it a lot more quickly.

[Abyss]

Terez, on 06 November 2020 - 06:05 PM, said:

... That's why we wait on the networks; they can do it a lot more quickly.

Also, if they get it right it's business as usual and if they get it wrong it's of no consequence beyond the screaming and rituallistic flaggelation of overpaid analysts.