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EmperorMagus, on 06 January 2020 - 06:59 AM, said:
I'm personally angry & offended at the assassination. Pretty much every Iranian I have spoken to feels violated that the a member of the Iranian military was attacked like this. Though I admit that there are the Monarchy supporters who are happy at what happened.
Pragmatically, I realize that it will be to the Islamic Republic's advantage in the long run. They have a great martyr who has both the nationalist groups and the religious groups behind him; they have far more national unity and support than they had after their suppression of the most recent protests; and Iraq is trying to eject American troops, which is what Soleimani had been trying to achieve for years (victory in death, I guess).
Soleimani was pretty magnificent at extending Iran's influence outside Iranian borders, and the IRGC doesn't have anyone of his caliber to replace him. But his deputy (Brigadier General Gha'ani, who has been appointed to his post) is also a hard hitter, known as "Sardar-e-Shamat" (Commandant of Syria) among. My guess is that Gha'ani is more than competent enough to keep what Soleimani started going.
In terms of retribution, I'd say that Iranians (both the people and the government) love vengeance and want nothing more than getting it. But the Supreme Leader is, if nothing else, a shrewd politician. He will not approve anything that will endanger the existence of the Islamic Republic and I think that includes any retribution that is likely to lead to war with the United States. I would expect Iran-supported militia attacks (insurgency style) against US troops in Iraq and Syria as likely, direct military action against US forces possible but unlikely, and assassinations a very unlikely response.
At the end of the day, the Iranians know they are not on a level playing field with the Americans.
As a bonus, you can see Khamenei leading a public prayer for Soleimani in the link below. For context, the "prayer of the dead" is a mandatory Shia rite and part of the complex ceremonies preceding a burial. Soleimani's burial rites have been the largest in modern Iranian history, taking place in five Iranian cities (and two in Iraq) and drawing more participants than the ceremony for the founder of the Islamic Republic. People are coming onto the streets in every city, big or small, in mourning. Can you say martyr?
http://twitter.com/m...066779858833413
I honestly cannot tell whether his half sob is genuine or merely playing the crowd.
Pragmatically, I realize that it will be to the Islamic Republic's advantage in the long run. They have a great martyr who has both the nationalist groups and the religious groups behind him; they have far more national unity and support than they had after their suppression of the most recent protests; and Iraq is trying to eject American troops, which is what Soleimani had been trying to achieve for years (victory in death, I guess).
Soleimani was pretty magnificent at extending Iran's influence outside Iranian borders, and the IRGC doesn't have anyone of his caliber to replace him. But his deputy (Brigadier General Gha'ani, who has been appointed to his post) is also a hard hitter, known as "Sardar-e-Shamat" (Commandant of Syria) among. My guess is that Gha'ani is more than competent enough to keep what Soleimani started going.
In terms of retribution, I'd say that Iranians (both the people and the government) love vengeance and want nothing more than getting it. But the Supreme Leader is, if nothing else, a shrewd politician. He will not approve anything that will endanger the existence of the Islamic Republic and I think that includes any retribution that is likely to lead to war with the United States. I would expect Iran-supported militia attacks (insurgency style) against US troops in Iraq and Syria as likely, direct military action against US forces possible but unlikely, and assassinations a very unlikely response.
At the end of the day, the Iranians know they are not on a level playing field with the Americans.
As a bonus, you can see Khamenei leading a public prayer for Soleimani in the link below. For context, the "prayer of the dead" is a mandatory Shia rite and part of the complex ceremonies preceding a burial. Soleimani's burial rites have been the largest in modern Iranian history, taking place in five Iranian cities (and two in Iraq) and drawing more participants than the ceremony for the founder of the Islamic Republic. People are coming onto the streets in every city, big or small, in mourning. Can you say martyr?
http://twitter.com/m...066779858833413
I honestly cannot tell whether his half sob is genuine or merely playing the crowd.
I empathize with you.
I also need to tell this forum that back in 2016/2017 Trump was taking money from Soleiman and his group. The money stopped flowing, Trump got in bed with the Saudis, Pompeo and the Dept of Defense decided to take "revenge" shots at Soleiman for fucking up their war, and then they killed him after months of lobbying Trump.
https://www.newyorke...umps-worst-deal
That article is from 2017 and explains how Trump was the only USA businessman dumb and desperate enough to get in business with a Soleiman proxy.
Combine that with the handjobs Trump has been giving the Saudis and the DoD leaks about this drone killing being a months long campaign that finally worked and you get a complete picture of the corruption and idiocy involved here.
At this point, it's actually safer for all parties for Iran to have nukes.
